Dusty Baker's Thought Process When Making Out Lineups

[FireDusty]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/08/29/dusty-bakers-thought-process-when-setting-lineups/

This explains it.

Way to complicated. His entire approach is flawed when managing a club with lots of youngsters because the patterns have yet to be established.

Also, it doesn't take into account players making adjustments.

Read this, really let it soak in.....and then ask yourself if this is the guy that is going to take this organization to the promised land.

He's overmanaging the lineup, undermanaging the developement of the players, and setting himself up to be outmanaged during the games.

Horrible fit for this organization. Just horrid.

Excerpts:

“Some guys don’t hit fastballs as well as they do breaking balls. Some guys are high-ball hitters. You’re not going to throw a high-ball hitter against a sinkerball-slider pitcher. Or a low-ball hitter, you’re going to play him more against a slider guy, a guy who keeps the ball down.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: “Huh?” Since when do you get to have a player for each pitch that gets thrown? If you make a blanket judgement that a young guy can’t handle a certain pitch, then how in the hell can you explain how Drew Stubbs is in the lineup every single day? This type of thinking will never, ever work with a team with as many young players as the Reds have.


“Sometimes I think you need a day off. Sometimes in the case of Scottie (Rolen), it’s day after night. In the case of older guys, it may be that way. Edgar (Renteria), (Miguel) Cairo. Their body doesn’t rebound the way it used to.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: Hey Dusty, if you didn’t love to have so many old geezers on your team, you wouldn’t have to worry so much about this old guy & that old guy. Again, more proof that this guy is all about managing veterans and has no clue how to manage a team with young talent bursting at the seams.

“Sometimes it changes because a guy supposed to play tomorrow has a stiff neck or comes up with a bad back. Cairo was supposed to play the other day, but he dove for a ball and he went home that night and he was a little sore. The next morning he woke up real sore and couldn’t play. I had to change the proposed lineup I had.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: Comical. He would be a great manager for one of those senior leagues. This guy is a joke.

“In the case of, like a (Chris) Heisey, I know where he likes the ball. I bat him against certain guys, or Fred (Lewis) against other guys.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: “Oh Dusty, You master thinker, I can’t believe you don’t have a ring”

“Lots of time, it’s also how many lefties they have in their bullpen. That’s why sometimes you don’t like hitting Jay (Bruce) and Joey (Votto) back to back. Playing Atlanta, they’ve got some of the toughest lefties around. They’ve got three of them. So, they can take three different spots to use just one player. It forces the other manager to make a decision to bring in a right-hander. You prefer him to a lefty.” For example, in a recent game against Colorado, Baker batted Votto and Bruce back-to-back without fear of getting lefty-ized by Rockies pitchers.
“I wasn’t apprehensive at all to put Bruce and Joey back to back, because they had used (lefty reliever Matt) Reynolds five days in a row. So they were only down to one lefty, and they’d have to bring him in for both of them. We keep track on how they use their bullpen before they get here, while they’re here, who it looks like they’ll use.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: Actually, the most well thought out statement of the interview. Not much you can gripe about here, accept the fact that he seems to have a better idea of how the opponents bullpen is feeling than his own.

“If you’re managing against Tony (La Russa), he’ll go matchups almost exclusively. Sometimes you manage against the other manager, on how he manages. You’ve got to help him go through his bullpen whether he wants to or not.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: “Huh?” “Sometimes you manager against the other manager?”. “You’ve got to help him go through his bullpen whether he wants to or not?” Huh?

“Sometimes I’ll tell a guy the night before that he’s off the next day. As a (former) player myself, I know it’s nice to know. Those nights, they can take their wife out to dinner or go out or something.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: You must not be allowed to take your wife out on days that you play. He makes it sound like you don’t even have to be in the dugout if he said you were off.

“When Bronson (Arroyo) is pitching, I need my best outfield defense because he throws some fly balls. When (Mike) Leake is pitching, I try to match up my best defensive infield because there are going to be more ground balls.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: Again, I didn’t realize you could have 48 guys on your roster. I kinda thought that you could have like one starting eight, maybe a platoon here or there….and…ummm…..catch the ball in the air and even on the ground and everything.

“You try to match them up offensively and defensively on what you need, who may need a day off, who’s hot, who’s not, or how many left-handers they have in the bullpen.”

Dusty Baker

My Take: Again….huh? What? Dusty is fixated on the “number of lefthanders they have in the bullpen”. I swear, he is in the first stages of dementia. This guy has no business managing this team.

Unbelievable.

[nux fan]

wonderfully summarized, a complete nutcase

[Stray]

I never thought I'd hear a Reds fan accuse Dusty of overmanaging. I don't see a problem with his thought process with our young guys, but I do see a problem with the result. My only complaint is Alonso, and it'll continue to be a complaint until we see him in an extended role with lots of PT. Even if he has to sub him out for a defensive replacement late in every game, I want to see him starting more.

Other than that, I see no problem with how he's managing the young players. A lot of people are saying we need to call up all of the young guys and see what they can do. I'd rather we take a look at what we already have up here.

Cozart - Our starting SS, I would have had a huge problem if we called him up not to start. We did and he got hurt, sucks because it would be a good chance to see what he can do.

Sappelt - He is playing his way out of PT. He is lazy in the field. He doesn't run the bases hard. He doesn't run the bases smart. He was getting a lot of PT and is seeing it decreased, he has nobody to blame but himself. You shouldn't need to be told to play the game hard.

Heisey - Our starting LF. He used to be the flavor of the month here and faded away when he sucked as a starter then got hurt. Also unfortunate since we could be seeing how he would rebound from his slump. He should be back soon and I assume we'll see a lot more of him than Lewis or Sappelt.

Stubbs - Our starting CF. I would still argue he's more productive than many would care to admit, but he has seemed to regress a little bit this year and that is troubling. You see the talent, but it appears he hasn't figured out a real approach at the plate. I have no problem with him continuing to start, but the big decision on Stubbs will be made by Walt.

Bruce - Starting RF, deservedly so. He's a lot more productive than I will ever care to admit. He's entirely too streaky for my liking and among the most frustrating players I can remember watching.

Frazier - Taking advantage of injuries to two guys ahead of him. Versatile, plays hard, and appears to be a good all around guy. His versatility should earn him a spot on the team next year, or it least I hope it does.

Alonso - Need to find out where we can play him, if anywhere. There's no better time to figure that out than when you're 10+ games back in late August.

So yeah, what is the complaint regarding our young players that isn't Alonso? I don't think one situation is enough to stamp Dusty as a manager that can't play young players. You posted a link to an article that describes how just about every manager in baseball would answer those questions. Or is your problem with the order not the players? Cause I can definitely get with that.

[justincredible]

“Lots of time, it’s also how many lefties they have in their bullpen. That’s why sometimes you don’t like hitting Jay (Bruce) and Joey (Votto) back to back. Playing Atlanta, they’ve got some of the toughest lefties around. They’ve got three of them. So, they can take three different spots to use just one player. It forces the other manager to make a decision to bring in a right-hander. You prefer him to a lefty.” For example, in a recent game against Colorado, Baker batted Votto and Bruce back-to-back without fear of getting lefty-ized by Rockies pitchers.
“I wasn’t apprehensive at all to put Bruce and Joey back to back, because they had used (lefty reliever Matt) Reynolds five days in a row. So they were only down to one lefty, and they’d have to bring him in for both of them. We keep track on how they use their bullpen before they get here, while they’re here, who it looks like they’ll use.”
Dusty Baker

My Take: Actually, the most well thought out statement of the interview. Not much you can gripe about here, accept the fact that he seems to have a better idea of how the opponents bullpen is feeling than his own.


Except for the fact that Votto hits lefties better than he hits righties.

Votto vs LHP: .362 AVG
Votto vs RHP: .312 AVG

The opposing team has no advantage bringing out a lefty to face the two of them if they are hitting back-to-back. None.

[texasdave]

Is it odd that there is so much thought about which type of batter hits against which type of pitcher, and yet the relievers seem to come out of the bullpen in a pre-determined order? Shouldn't relievers also be matched up on more than just which arm they throw with and which side of the plate the batter hits from? Or that doesn't matter?

[DannyB]

“When Bronson (Arroyo) is pitching, I need my best outfield defense because he throws some fly balls. When (Mike) Leake is pitching, I try to match up my best defensive infield because there are going to be more ground balls.”
Dusty Baker
Cairo and Renteria were in the lineup for Leake's last start.

[nux fan]

nice bit of reasoning

[mr. red]

Is it odd that there is so much thought about which type of batter hits against which type of pitcher, and yet the relievers seem to come out of the bullpen in a pre-determined order? Shouldn't relievers also be matched up on more than just which arm they throw with and which side of the plate the batter hits from? Or that doesn't matter?

You don't understand? It's simple Bakermetrics. Make sure that the opposing team can't go L/R matchups out of their bullpen, but make sure we use our bullpen order (instead of L/R matchups) when the other team is batting late in games. Also, it would be ridiculous to bat Votto, the reigning MVP, a guy that hits LHP better than RHP, and Bruce back to back. Why would you hit lefties back to back when the numbers say it doesn't matter?!

[texasdave]

“When Bronson (Arroyo) is pitching, I need my best outfield defense because he throws some fly balls. When (Mike) Leake is pitching, I try to match up my best defensive infield because there are going to be more ground balls.”
Dusty Baker


Cairo and Renteria were in the lineup for Leake's last start.

Dusty talks to hear himself talk. Take NOTHING he says seriously.

[redssince75]

Burn me at the stake as a heretic I guess, but to me the quotes from Dusty in the first post make a lot more sense than the OP's reactions to them.

[FireDusty]

You posted a link to an article that describes how just about every manager in baseball would answer those questions. You can't be serious.

[smixsell]

Dusty talks to hear himself talk. Take NOTHING he says seriously.

Spot on. After all of his babbling he still hit Hernandez 8th every game he played for about a month (behing such sluggers as Gomes, Cairo, Renteria, and a stone cold Bruce) despite the fact that he was our second best slugger and has been a CAREER clutch RBI guy.

[nux fan]

It is not worth babbling about, baker needs a stat mri exam

[smixsell]

Burn me at the stake as a heretic I guess, but to me the quotes from Dusty in the first post make a lot more sense than the OP's reactions to them.

His quote would make a lot more sense if he didn't VERY OFTEN put out a ridiculous lineup, one which could not be justified with ANY POSSIBLE explanation (and which have NOT WORKED by the way ). The quote is just Baker babbling trying to show HOW MUCH HE KNOWS :laugh: and to justify his absurd choices. :(

[nux fan]

exactly right, boy I wish I could have access to sell any product to any of the people that actually believe the palaver and logorrhea that emanate from Bakers mouth

[FireDusty]

Anybody remember the First Citywide Change Bank Skit on SNL?

[ SUPER: "When you do only one thing, you do it better" ]

Customer #1: I needed to take the bus, but all I had was a five-dollar bill. I stopped by First Citiwide, and they were able to give me four singles and four quarters.

[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, We just make change" ]

Paul McElroy: We will work with the customer to give that customer the change that he or she needs. If you come to us with a twenty-dollar bill, we can give you two tens, we can give you four fives - we can give you a ten and two fives. We will work with you.

Customer #2: I went to my First Citiwide branch to change a fifty. I guess I was in kind of a hurry, and I asked for a twenty, a ten, and two fives. Their computers picked up my mistake right away, and I got the correct change.

[ SUPER: "Correct Change" ]

Paul McElroy: We have been in this business a long time. With our experience, we're gonna have ideas for change combinations that probably haven't occurred to you. If you have a fifty-dollar bill, we can give you fifty singles. [ SUPER: "We can give you fifty singles" ] We can give you forty-nine singles and ten dimes. We can give you twenty-five twos. Come talk to us. [ SUPER: "We can give you twenty-five twos" ] We are not going to give you change that you don't want. If you come to us with a hundred-dollar bill, we're not going to give you two-thousand nickels.. [ SUPER: "We're not going to give you two thousand nickels" ] - unless that meets your particular change needs. We will give you.. the change.. equal to.. the amount of money.. that you want change for!

[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, Our business is making change" ]

Bank Representative: That's what we do.

Dusty Bakers Knowledge of how to manage is summed up in their company motto.

[Roush's socks]

This kind of talk is just Dusty BS'ing the media with stock quotes and general baseball proverbs. I don't think it has much to do with the actual way the team is run.

[smixsell]

Anybody remember the First Citywide Change Bank Skit on SNL?

[ SUPER: "When you do only one thing, you do it better" ]

Customer #1: I needed to take the bus, but all I had was a five-dollar bill. I stopped by First Citiwide, and they were able to give me four singles and four quarters.

[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, We just make change" ]

Paul McElroy: We will work with the customer to give that customer the change that he or she needs. If you come to us with a twenty-dollar bill, we can give you two tens, we can give you four fives - we can give you a ten and two fives. We will work with you.

Customer #2: I went to my First Citiwide branch to change a fifty. I guess I was in kind of a hurry, and I asked for a twenty, a ten, and two fives. Their computers picked up my mistake right away, and I got the correct change.

[ SUPER: "Correct Change" ]

Paul McElroy: We have been in this business a long time. With our experience, we're gonna have ideas for change combinations that probably haven't occurred to you. If you have a fifty-dollar bill, we can give you fifty singles. [ SUPER: "We can give you fifty singles" ] We can give you forty-nine singles and ten dimes. We can give you twenty-five twos. Come talk to us. [ SUPER: "We can give you twenty-five twos" ] We are not going to give you change that you don't want. If you come to us with a hundred-dollar bill, we're not going to give you two-thousand nickels.. [ SUPER: "We're not going to give you two thousand nickels" ] - unless that meets your particular change needs. We will give you.. the change.. equal to.. the amount of money.. that you want change for!

[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, Our business is making change" ]

Bank Representative: That's what we do.

Dusty Bakers Knowledge of how to manage is summed up in their company motto.


Great one. You nailed it. :)

[smixsell]

By the way, I think we who recognize him for the load of crap "manager" he is should stop refering to him as "Dusty."

I for one, will not be consciously referring to him as "Dusty" every again, as long as he is in a Reds uniform.

I don't want to be on a first name basis with the clod. :( From Now on he is "Baker" to me. :thumbdown::thumbdown:

I MIGHT start calling him Dusty again when he is managing some other poor slob's team. :)

[nux fan]

perfect

[50YrRedsFan]

Duuhhhhhh! Which way did they go?

[DocRed]

There's a thought process?

[Jr's Boy]

I call him Rusty.

[ervinsm84]

Is there even a 1 in a million chance that Dusty employs some form of advanced stats and technologies like Joe Maddon does? Feels like no to me.

Great article from Jayson Stark on Tech/Information in the Baseball
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6908844/information-age-changing-way-game-played

Excerpts from Maddon


"I think this is truly the second great renaissance in baseball," says Joe Maddon, a visionary kind of guy whose embrace of technology, info and outside-the-box thinking has made him, for all intents and purposes, the Steve Jobs of managers


When we first began, it was very primitive," Maddon says. "All it really was, defensively, was a bunch of lines & where you kept track of where hitters hit the ball against you in the past, against your pitchers."



Everybody wants to be aggressive," Maddon says. "They want aggressive pitchers. And they want aggressive offense. And they want aggressive baserunning. I want aggressive defense. I mean, if there's any kind of football tenet that I want to draw, I want us to be aggressive on defense, too, and force some issues there. And at the end of the day, when I talk to our guys, we preach: Catch line drives.



Now who are the better hitters? The better hitters are the guys who hit the ball hard. So if they hit the ball hard, you need to be closer to the spot where they hit the ball hard most often. And if they happen to mi**** it, we're athletic enough to go catch it. So that's what this is all about -- trying to get to the spot where the better hitters hit the ball hard most often."



You have to be willing to use the information," Maddon says. "There's active and passive information. I know there are other teams that are getting a lot of good stuff. But then, are you able to utilize it during a game? Are you willing to utilize it during a game, or even prior to the game?



I think there are so many old-school tendencies or advocates that are unwilling to go in this direction that at the end of the day, I don't even think they know why they're really unwilling to do this ... Quite frankly I don't know why every team wouldn't want to do it, because the information's there.

"I guess it just depends on organizational philosophy. Are you comfortable with the haphazard, 'I-think-this-is-going-to-work' approach, or the 'this-is-what-happened-in-1987-and-it-worked-then' approach? If you are, that's fine."[/QUOTE]



I think The Book is something that should be read and can be read," Maddon says, "but not to be taken literally to the point that it had been for so many years. I mean, after all, the book was handed down pretty much word-of-mouth. ... But as with most things that are handed down word-of-mouth, a lot of things are normally lost in the translation. And furthermore, when that word of mouth was created, whatever year that was, all this stuff was not available."

[smixsell]

I call him Rusty.

Nice. :)

[mu4103]

Here was an interesting article (book excerpt) from when Dusty was just starting with Cincy. It makes a lot of sense. Here is the link. If I am posting this wrong, let me know. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/book-excerpt-evaluating-baseballs-managers-1876-2008-dusty-baker/

[texasdave]

Thanks for posting.

[FireDusty]

Here was an interesting article (book excerpt) from when Dusty was just starting with Cincy. It makes a lot of sense. Here is the link. If I am posting this wrong, let me know. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/book-excerpt-evaluating-baseballs-managers-1876-2008-dusty-baker/

Worst fit in all of baseball. It could be argued that Dusty Baker literally embodies the exact decription of the managerial style that least fits the current configuration of this organization.

Just an unbelievably bad situation.

[smixsell]

Worst fit in all of baseball. It could be argued that Dusty Baker literally embodies the exact decription of the managerial style that least fits the current configuration of this organization.

Just an unbelievably bad situation.

Spot on.