So We Need Starting Pitching, Do We?

[HUHUH]

Going into last year, the hype was that the Reds were strong and deep at starting pitching. In this offseason, we now are to assume (it seems everyone is on board on this) that the number one priority is starting pitching. What happened to that strong and deep rotation we went into last year with? Well, as far as I can tell, they are all still around. Think about it: Volquez and Wood were the starters on the first two days of the season. While they didn't last the year with the Reds, are we to write them off completely? Isn't there any confidence in our scouting and development folks? Have we given up on the deep rotation we started with last year ALREADY? Or are the folks that evaluate these guys (particularly Dusty who put Volquez and Wood out there 1 and 2) to blame? Maybe our first priority should be new talent evaluators before starting pitchers. Here is what we currently have for starters (pretty much what we started with last year, PLUS Chapman):
Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Chapman
Last year these guys were the future of the organization. Now we need someone else? What gives?
It looks to me like the bullpen is where we're going to be short this year. After Dusty ran Ondrusek, Massett, and Bray into the ground last year, who are we expecting to eat up the bullpen innings this year?
I like the 7 starters listed above. I believe they can be a more than capable rotation for the year. I'm not so sold on Aredondo and.... wait, who else is staffing the bullpen next year?
I hear all of this talk of needing starting pitchers coming from the top (Jocketty), but haven't heard anyone question it. Indeed, it appears everyone says we need starting pitching. Someone needs to call the question, and I'm doing it.

[R_Webb18]

we had/have a lot ppl that are #5s. #5s don't win you world series. Yes its a great ideal to just pray they turn it #1s or #2s really? We have things to trade to get it imo you do it. btw the bullpen will be fine if we can past the 5th inning.

[dMaus14]

Well I believe that we have personally a rotation full of potential and it could be a strength. I think the thought going into last year was our staff had a ton of potential but couldn't wait to see what would come of the continuous growth. For 3 years we have waited for Homer to become a TOR arm (hasn't happened), waited for our return on investment from the Volquez-Hamilton trade (I still like Volquez but need a replacement), and no one has progressed to take any other spot other than Cueto and maybe Leake. Leake is a #3-#4 starter. To me, Cueto is a #2 but not an ace. Now I am of the belief that we don't need an actual ACE but a couple of #2's will get you to the playoffs then its up in the air.

[HUHUH]

I'm not saying that trading for a top starter wouldn't help this team. What team doesn't need one? And if you think the bullpen is going to be fine, please give me the names of 7 or 8 arms that you have confidence in.

[R_Webb18]

Ondrusek, Massett, and Bray lecure few more

[The DARK]

The fact of the matter is that only Cueto had a good season last year. Beyond that, we had one average performance (Leake), two below average performances (Willis, Bailey), and three atrocious ones (Wood, Volquez, Arroyo). Given that Cueto's peripherals suggest a regression to the mean, we're left relying on a bunch of guys who have major question marks with respect to long-term value. For a team that's likely losing Votto after 2013 if we don't win a championship, having patience with this group is asking a lot. It's possible that everything will come together for at least one of these guys and we'll have a decent rotation, but a repeat of 2011 isn't out of the cards either, and we can't afford to have another losing season.

The bullpen is acceptable, but will likely need some upgrades. We're losing some serious anchors if Chapman and Cordero are changing roles/moving on... Arredondo, Masset, Ondrusek, Bray, and Lecure are the locks, while we're likely to see Fisher (out of options) and Horst as well. But as of right now, there's no closer and no real shutdown guys. Pitching in general should be a priority right now; Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Bruce, Alonso, Rolen, Stubbs, Mesoraco is a good enough lineup to me.

[dMaus14]

I truly believe that the only time you need a true ace is in a one game playoff and even then its up in the air. I think we need Johnny Cuetos and Mike Leakes and we will be in the playoffs. I wouldn't mind giving up Corcinco, Sappelt, Wood, Frazier, Volquez and maybe one other prospect for Floyd and Danks. I think you will be able to extend them before free agency because of the possible SP class next offseason.

Rotation would look like:
Cueto
Danks
Floyd
Leake
Arroyo

Bailey can be used as trade bait. I know I have been all over these guys but I think they are perfect for our rotation. They have pitched in hitter friendly ballparks and can only get better facing a pitcher 3-4 times a night. And Kenny Williams is a wheeler and a dealer but he has taken chances in the past that I can see Walt taking advantage of him.

[harmony]

Going into last year, the hype was that the Reds were strong and deep at starting pitching. In this offseason, we now are to assume (it seems everyone is on board on this) that the number one priority is starting pitching. What happened to that strong and deep rotation we went into last year with? Well, as far as I can tell, they are all still around. Think about it: Volquez and Wood were the starters on the first two days of the season. While they didn't last the year with the Reds, are we to write them off completely? Isn't there any confidence in our scouting and development folks? Have we given up on the deep rotation we started with last year ALREADY? Or are the folks that evaluate these guys (particularly Dusty who put Volquez and Wood out there 1 and 2) to blame? Maybe our first priority should be new talent evaluators before starting pitchers. Here is what we currently have for starters (pretty much what we started with last year, PLUS Chapman):
Cueto, Leake, Arroyo, Bailey, Volquez, Wood, Chapman
Last year these guys were the future of the organization. Now we need someone else? What gives?
It looks to me like the bullpen is where we're going to be short this year. After Dusty ran Ondrusek, Massett, and Bray into the ground last year, who are we expecting to eat up the bullpen innings this year?
I like the 7 starters listed above. I believe they can be a more than capable rotation for the year. I'm not so sold on Aredondo and.... wait, who else is staffing the bullpen next year?
I hear all of this talk of needing starting pitchers coming from the top (Jocketty), but haven't heard anyone question it. Indeed, it appears everyone says we need starting pitching. Someone needs to call the question, and I'm doing it.
The 2011 Reds ranked 28th among all 30 teams in pitching WAR* (despite tying for the second-lowest BABIP**):

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

The 2010 NL Central champion Reds ranked 11th among 14 National League teams in pitching WAR:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=nl&stats=pit&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010

* Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
** Batting Average / Balls in Play

[alett12]

I agree the reds DO NOT need to aquire another starting pitcher. I would love to see them start the year with a rotation of
cueto
leake
homer
arroyo
chapman
then do what the rangers did with ogando and take him out at around 120 innings and put wood in.

[texasdave]

Reds need pitching, pitching and then some more pitching.

[R_Webb18]

I agree the reds DO NOT need to aquire another starting pitcher. I would love to see them start the year with a rotation of
cueto
leake
homer
arroyo
chapman
then do what the rangers did with ogando and take him out at around 120 innings and put wood in.

welcome to 3rd place

[dMaus14]

But this time we wouldn't be 17 and 11 GB; it'll only be 14 and 8! Steady progress! bc the only way the rotation is worse is if Cueto sucks too or is injured!

[cres36]

I dont know.... i mean it could go both ways. I would love to see the reds aquire a solid TOR guy like shields or danks etc...someone to plus in either before or behind cueto. I believe we have guys in house with the potential to do that in homer, or chapman, ev if he gets it figured out and then some solid guys in leake in wood. IF arroyo can bounce back i feel our rotation can improve. It all just depends if the regression continues or if guys like arroyo ev and wood can bounce back and perform like we need them to

[dMaus14]

If you listen to what Walt has said about acquiring a new SP he has said he wants a "stabilizer" in the middle of the rotation. To me that means he wants someone who you know will go out there and give you chance to win every time he pitches while giving 6+ IP every outing. I think that was the biggest problem about our rotation last year. Our rotation averaged less than 6 IP per start last year. We need someone who will go out almost every game and give us 6+ IP per start and put us in the position to win! We don't have that certainty with this rotation. That's why we need to add a SP.

[LegallyMinded]

If you listen to what Walt has said about acquiring a new SP he has said he wants a "stabilizer" in the middle of the rotation. To me that means he wants someone who you know will go out there and give you chance to win every time he pitches while giving 6+ IP every outing. I think that was the biggest problem about our rotation last year. Our rotation averaged less than 6 IP per start last year. We need someone who will go out almost every game and give us 6+ IP per start and put us in the position to win! We don't have that certainty with this rotation. That's why we need to add a SP.


I wonder if Hiroki Kuroda could be a possibility. He threw 202 innings last year, averaging more than 6IP per start, and apparently he just wants a short term deal, so the Reds wouldn't have to blow the long term budget to sign him. There are some concerns, of course, like a career-low GB rate last year, but I he would certainly be a "stabilizer."

[FireDusty]

The Reds need a new Manager and then that new Manager should get to decide if our current pitching coach is the answer.

I promise you that Dave Duncan would have produced much better results with our talent.

Our pitch selection is atrocious...our pitch location...the same.

[nux fan]

yes exactly, bringing in new starters, with this moron of a manager is like rearranging deck chairs on the titanic

[bounty37h]

The Reds need a new Manager and then that new Manager should get to decide if our current pitching coach is the answer.

I promise you that Dave Duncan would have produced much better results with our talent.

Our pitch selection is atrocious...our pitch location...the same.

So, sounds like your saying we need a new pitching coach then, but know you have to drag Dusty in whenever you can....

[texasdave]

This tidbit from MLBtraderumors is interesting.


The Astros are telling teams that they'd be willing to pay half of the salaries for Carlos Lee or Brett Myers if they were to trade them, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. However, the team doesn't want to eat any salary in a potential Wandy Rodriguez deal.

If Houston is willing to pay half I would be interested.He fills the need of a guy who his going to go out and give the team 6 or 7 solid innings just about every time he takes the ball. He doesn't miss starts. I am sure the bullpen would benefit from that. Not my first choice but definitely an option. Once again, better than doing nothing which I am afraid is going to happen.

[alett12]

I really see no major issue other than bronson with the reds rotation, yes there are questions due to injury history but if you brought in jurrjens it wouldn't shore that up anymore niether would myers. Leake should put up very similar numbers to someone like Ian Kennedy if the reds did go after a pitcher on the trade market i would like to see it be for someone decent but that a team won't want the farm for like the white soxs do for floyd and danks