Why is everyone concerned with left field?

[Krawhitham]

CF is the issue not LF

in 604 AB StubBs only managed 15hr, 44rbi, & 92runs

HI-C had 15hr & 50rbi in just 279 at bats

Projecting HI-C out to Stubbs AB total you are looking at 32hr, 108rbi, 95runs & 13sb

[dMaus14]

In watching Stubbs play this year I saw a confused player. It seemed he didn't know what approach to use at the plate and did what he did offensively on pure skill alone. I think the key to him being successful is to not make him into what you want him to be but let him be who he his! He's an above average defensive outfielder with good power and has speed. I think if you leave him hitting 6-7 and he'll hit .265 with 20+ HR and score over 100 runs. But if you force him out if his comfort zone he's going to press and struggle to make contact. Is he going to strike out a lot? Probably but I don't think he'll go over 145 if you just leave him be! Not all fast guys are made for the top of the order!

[R_Webb18]

i think the problem ppl have with most reds hitters besides votto and maybe bp is there streaky. 1 month they can't hit next the can't miss. the more ppl you have like that the more it adds up.

[Blood Red Path]

HI-C had 15hr & 50rbi in just 279 at bats

Projecting HI-C out to Stubbs AB total you are looking at 32hr, 108rbi, 95runs & 13sb

Those type of extrapolations are unrealistic. I would be happy to see Heisey get the chance to enter the season as the starting LF, and I think he would be successful- but if you are inferring that he is going to deliver a Matt Holliday stat-line, I'm just noy buying it(but if he did put up those numbers, that's likely 4+ WAR and would surely make the Reds look even more like a playoff team).

I think something like 85/25/85/8 is much more in the ballpark for Heisey if he were to be playing well enough to receive 600+ plate appearances, and I would expect a hashline like .260/.320/.470.

I think those are still numbers we could all get behind to some degree, plus Heisey is an above average fielder when out in left.

I also think that Stubbs is clearly valuable to the team as well. Championship teams need to be strong up the middle defensively and the ground Stubbs covers is an equalizer as he has already been worth 4 dWAR in his young career, that's nearly twice as many as Heisey's bat has been worth so far in the bigs.

The problem is that Stubbs' bat plays much better in the 6-7 hole, not as the leadoff guy. So much of last year was lost for Drew simply staring at getover fastballs trying to work the count because thats "what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do". But for Stubbs constantly working behind in the count is a dangerous proposition, and he has already shown that to the tune of 422 K's. I think he's at his best down in the order where he can feel free to attack the first pitch he can handle.

This Reds team lacks a leadoff hitter. That is one of the few remaining flaws to the current roster, but it is one that cannot be resolved easily, and it is not likely to be addressed at all. In fact Heisey's chances to start are really only existent because there's not an available LF who fits the leadoff role, and likely not many very attractive ones being made available via trade either. So with Heisey in left, it appears that leadoff will either be manned by Stubbs or Phillips, who fits better batting second IMO(with Cozart as a darkhorse- if he's riding a hot streak and whoever is hitting first is struggling, I could see him getting a shot just to switch things up).

[LegallyMinded]

CF is the issue not LF

in 604 AB StubBs only managed 15hr, 44rbi, & 92runs

HI-C had 15hr & 50rbi in just 279 at bats

Projecting HI-C out to Stubbs AB total you are looking at 32hr, 108rbi, 95runs & 13sb


I don't think an analysis based on stats like HR and RBI really gives an accurate impression of the quality of the players involved. First, a player has very little control over the number of chances he has to drive in runs: Stubbs took almost 2/3 of his at bats last year from the lead off spot, and so naturally his RBI numbers are going to look poor compared to Heisey's. As for the HR numbers, Heisey last year had a HR/FB rate of 18.6%, which is similar to the rate posted by Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols. Now, it's possible Heisey developed power to rival some of the best sluggers in the game, but I think it's also likely that Heisey happened to be relatively lucky last year, and a more realistic homerun rate for projecting future performance would be closer to the 12% he posted in 2010.

Also, focusing on HR and RBI really ignores the contributions that Stubbs makes defensively and on the base paths. UZR didn't like Stubbs' performance last year, but overall, he has a career 2.2UZR/150 in CF. Heisey, by contrast, has a 1.9UZR/150 in LF. Granted, the same sizes for both players are small enough that the difference probably isn't overly telling, but I'd still take the player who provides slightly better defense at a premium position in Stubbs.

Finally, both the traditional and advanced base running metrics give the edge to Stubbs: Looking at both players' career numbers, Stubbs steals bases more frequently and with a higher rate of success, and Fangraphs' Ultimate Baserunning stat prefers Stubbs as well.

I understand that Stubbs can be frustrating to watch due to his high K-rate and streakiness, but in light of his defensive contributions and speed, I don't think CF is really an area the Reds need to address right now.

[Krawhitham]

I don't think an analysis based on stats like HR and RBI really gives an accurate impression of the quality of the players involved. First, a player has very little control over the number of chances he has to drive in runs: Stubbs took almost 2/3 of his at bats last year from the lead off spot

OR it has something to do with the fact
with runners on he only hit .227
with runners in scoring position he hit .189
with runners in scoring position and 2 outs he hit .156
with bases loaded he hit .083

[Alpha Zero]

CF is the issue not LF

in 604 AB StubBs only managed 15hr, 44rbi, & 92runs

HI-C had 15hr & 50rbi in just 279 at bats

Projecting HI-C out to Stubbs AB total you are looking at 32hr, 108rbi, 95runs & 13sb

I think that adding a high quality LF would allow the Reds to use Heisey more in CF to spell Stubbs when he is struggling. That would help to alleviate both situations.

[texasdave]

Stubbs was not very good last year no matter how you slice it. He needs to bounce back because he is going to get 150+ starts.

[The Rage]

Stubbs was not very good last year no matter how you slice it. He needs to bounce back because he is going to get 150+ starts.

Jay Bruce was no fun show either. Both need to snap back.

[LegallyMinded]

OR it has something to do with the fact
with runners on he only hit .227
with runners in scoring position he hit .189
with runners in scoring position and 2 outs he hit .156
with bases loaded he hit .083

Again, I'm not sure the stats you're looking at have much predictive value. With such small sample sizes, bad luck and random variations really obscure the quality of the player. Heisey, for instance, had a clutch score of -1.66 and a WPA of -.39 last year. That doesn't mean he's a bad player, though; it just means he happened to do poorly in certain situations, just as Stubbs happened to perform poorly with runners in scoring position.

[Outlaw133]

CF is the issue not LF

in 604 AB StubBs only managed 15hr, 44rbi, & 92runs

HI-C had 15hr & 50rbi in just 279 at bats

Projecting HI-C out to Stubbs AB total you are looking at 32hr, 108rbi, 95runs & 13sb

And what do Heisey's strikeouts project out to in 604 plate appearances?

[dMaus14]

Well based on Heisey's strikeout percentage in 2011, if he would have gotten 681 PA (number of PA Stubb's had in 2011) he would have struck out 173 times.

In 2010, Stubbs predominately hit in the 6-7 hole, batted .255/.321/.444 with 22 HR, 91 R and 30 SB (struck out 168 times)

In 2011, he led off 2/3 of the time, batted .243/.321/.364 with 15 HR, 92 R and 40 SB (struck out 205 times)

I would love to see Stubbs be that prototypical leadoff batter but if it is going to MindF**k him then I would rather see him hit 6-7, hit 20+ bombs, score 90 runs and drive in 70-80 runs and not worry about working the pitcher's pitch count! That's the type of player I think he is and I thought its the coaches and organization's job is to put each player in the best position to excel while helping out the team. He obviously excelled more in the 6-7 hole and so did the team!