Roy Oswalt?

[RedsfaninMT]

Per mlbtraderumors.com, Oswalt's agents have contacted Walt. That would be an amazing addition IMO.

[brad1176]

Roy wants to be here, if we're truly going all in, make it happen Walt. Latos, Cueto, Oswalt, Leake, Bailey. Wow.

[BEETTLEBUG]

Make it Happen How?

[jhu1321]

What to do with Arroyo in that scenario?

[The Rage]

He doesn't want to be here, nobody else will offer him anything. Pass. He is washed up.

[R_Webb18]

He doesn't want to be here, nobody else will offer him anything. Pass. He is washed up.

lol wat

[The Rage]

lol wat

Nobody is offering the contract he wants so he is trying to up his pressure on the Red Sox, who have the most interest, by "contacting" other organizations. Why Reds fans want him now, is beyond me. You never put more future obligations on this type of arm, you buy them cheap in July(and Oswalt may not be one of them by then).

[dMaus14]

Its not like he is asking for a 3 year deal. His asking price is 1 year at $8M and I truly believe he doesn't want to go to the AL. But if he is stuck going there then what is the harm in listening. I can't wait to see where Edwin Jackson goes because I haven't heard his name going anywhere.

[R_Webb18]

Nobody is offering the contract he wants so he is trying to up his pressure on the Red Sox, who have the most interest, by "contacting" other organizations. Why Reds fans want him now, is beyond me. You never put more future obligations on this type of arm, you buy them cheap in July(and Oswalt may not be one of them by then).

no matter what you say roy o is a good 3, 4, or 5 starter

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

roy o would put this team over the top imo. the move also solves our problem of ML SP depth. As of now, it's just chapman. Personally, I want chapman to take as much time as is necessary to truly refine his control/3rd pitch. even if it takes the whole season. Given chapman and the history of health issues/youth of the rotation, we really do need another starter. i just dont now where bailey/arroyo fits as i don't really see a six man rotation happening. Trading bailey doesn't make much sense to me at this point, he carries little trade value, still has upside, and costs very little. Trading Arroyo right now also doesnt make much sense given his contract/value, etc. I think the best plan for Arroyo is to hope he bounces back and potentially trade him at the deadline. Yea, there's a lot of deferred money there, but he and his contract need to leave.

Still though, Latos-Cueto-Oswalt-Leake-Bailey is WS caliber. I'm not sure the rotation in its current state can get there. Maybe they'd be better off saving some $ for the deadline and making a SP move then if it's needed. Personally, I think Oswalt at 8m (or less) on a 1yr contract is a steal.

[BEETTLEBUG]

,Let's do it some how Walt.Love it

[dMaus14]

As for saving money for a deal at the deadline ... If Bob is so set on winning I'd be willing to bet he would add to the payroll for a run. But that's just me!

[joshua]

Bailey is out of options and no one would be trading for Arroyo and taking on that money. I'd love Oswalt, but what do you do even if you can get him for something like 1 year 5.5 million? Move Arroyo to the bullpen? I doubt he'd want to do that. I don't see it happening, but Oswalt would secure the rotation.

[R_Webb18]

who cares what he wants

[Red Raindog]

What to do with Arroyo in that scenario?

If there is money for Oswalt in the budget -- and if the FO has decided that Arroyo is not in the plans --- the way I see it -- Arroyo's money is already spent so trading him and picking up a good chunk of salary would work.

Personally I'd like another starter & Oswalt would work for me as would Jackson.

Arroyo might have another year left in him but I'd like to see another team take that chance if the Reds can replace him.

[Alpha Zero]

I agree that Oswalt would be an upgrade over both Bailey and Arroyo. Unfortunately, the Reds appear to be nearly tapped out on the budget, and Bailey is out of options. Also, if the Reds could somehow dump Arroyo and part of his salary, I'd be very concerned about the durability of a rotation that includes Bailey, Oswalt, and Cueto.

In a perfect world, I'd love to have Oswalt. Alas, this is not a perfect world, and there are probably too many obstacles (options, cash, durability) for the deal to make real sense for the Reds at this point in time.

[Red Raindog]

I agree that Oswalt would be an upgrade over both Bailey and Arroyo. Unfortunately, the Reds appear to be nearly tapped out on the budget, and Bailey is out of options. Also, if the Reds could somehow dump Arroyo and part of his salary, I'd be very concerned about the durability of a rotation that includes Bailey, Oswalt, and Cueto.

In a perfect world, I'd love to have Oswalt. Alas, this is not a perfect world, and there are probably too many obstacles (options, cash, durability) for the deal to make real sense for the Reds at this point in time.

Yup -- I think it is unlikely -- and I had not really given enough thought to the injury history of the 3 you named!

[lidspinner]

I would have bet the bank that Latos was not coming here regardless of what Walt was offering....I also doubted the Marshall deal, so I will not be shocked if I open Redszone to see Roy wearing Red. I think the Reds are making a 2-3 year run and Roy might be the final piece of the puzzle, although I think Roy has taken a few steps backwards but thats just my personal opinion.

[Brisco]

If there is money for Oswalt in the budget -- and if the FO has decided that Arroyo is not in the plans --- the way I see it -- Arroyo's money is already spent so trading him and picking up a good chunk of salary would work.

Personally I'd like another starter & Oswalt would work for me as would Jackson.

Arroyo might have another year left in him but I'd like to see another team take that chance if the Reds can replace him.

Simply forget about the idea that trading arroyo is in any way a money saver or even a wash. 15 million of arroyos salary that is currently deferred until 2015-2020 is due immediately if we trade him.

[IamRV]

Bailey is out of options and no one would be trading for Arroyo and taking on that money. I'd love Oswalt, but what do you do even if you can get him for something like 1 year 5.5 million? Move Arroyo to the bullpen? I doubt he'd want to do that. I don't see it happening, but Oswalt would secure the rotation.

What they would have to do is send Leake to Louisville. They'd have no other choice. Arroyo's anchor of a contract ain't movin' anywhere this year or next and Bailey is out of options. Besides, if you traded either one you'd be defeating the reason for signing Oswalt in the first place which is SP depth.

[jhu1321]

If Boston signs Edwin Jackson I would think things start to look better for Oswalt finding a home in Cincinnati (at least for a year).

[texasdave]

Simply forget about the idea that trading arroyo is in any way a money saver or even a wash. 15 million of arroyos salary that is currently deferred until 2015-2020 is due immediately if we trade him.

If they were to work out a deal to send Arroyo somewhere he wants to be, say Boston, I think that deferred salary issue could be settled amicably.

[Old NDN]

Sign him and slot him at #3. He's better than Arroyo 4, or Bailey 5. Leake to L'ville. Use the DL to hide those injured or ineffective, if necessary. It happens all the time.

I still think he winds up a Card. By leaking this news of his interest in the Reds, he's pushing the Cards to make a move. I hope I'm wrong and he winds up a Red, though.

[alett12]

I'm still not sold. Personaly I'm not a big Oswalt fan considering the injuries he had last year. Boston wants him but they are having trouble finding the money to bring him in, but I dont see them taking arroyo out of the rotation and no one else would really want him.

[dMaus14]

If we sign Oswalt then I feel we send Masset and Bailey off in a trade to get a back up infielder. Maybe Masset, Bailey and Janish to the Astros for Lowrie and Brian Bogusevic.

[jhu1321]

I'm not sold on Oswalt either BUT I think he's still got a lot of upside to offer. As for the injury concerns, it's not like Bailey has ever showed the ability to make it through even part of a season healthy.

I look for Walt to wait this thing out and hope he falls into our lap a-la Madson. I'm hoping if the Reds can't make it work he goes to Boston to keep him away from the Cardinals.

[UCBrownsfan]

We'd be foolish not to sign him:
Oswalt vs Combined best for the Reds
IP ERA IP ERA
2006 220.2 2.98 240.2 3.29
2007 212 3.18 231.2 3.73
2008 208.2 3.54 200 3.21
2009 181.1 4.12 220.1 3.84
2010 211.2 2.76 215.2 3.51
2011 139 3.69 199 2.31

[Old NDN]

Maybe Madson has had a hand in leading him the Reds' way. If Walt really wants him, he'll get creative with the payroll (his words)and land him.

[alett12]

Sign him and slot him at #3. He's better than Arroyo 4, or Bailey 5. Leake to L'ville. Use the DL to hide those injured or ineffective, if necessary. It happens all the time.

I still think he winds up a Card. By leaking this news of his interest in the Reds, he's pushing the Cards to make a move. I hope I'm wrong and he winds up a Red, though.

Leake was the reds 2nd best pitcher last year with out any question. I see no way he starts in louisville unless he gets hurt. I think you just need to bring in insurance at this point not someone who wants big money.

[Old NDN]

Leake was the reds 2nd best pitcher last year with out any question. I see no way he starts in louisville unless he gets hurt. I think you just need to bring in insurance at this point not someone who wants big money.

True, but he has options. I don't see all the starters coming out of spring training being ready, or healthy. Look what happened last year (with Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey). If they are, then you deal with it then. Trades, DFAs, DL. If the Reds are truly all in, as most think, then the potential upside by adding Oswalt is worth the gamble.

[Pony Boy]

I am all for Walt spending money to improve the Reds, but Oswalt would be an odd move. That money would be much rather better spent on a stud LF'er, like Beltran, than on another starting pitcher at this point. It would be strange to pass on Beltran and then a month or so later dump big dollars into a non-ace pitcher like Oswalt.

[Brisco]

If they were to work out a deal to send Arroyo somewhere he wants to be, say Boston, I think that deferred salary issue could be settled amicably.

Aint gonna happen.

His contract status is:

2012: $7 million, 2013: $6.5 million, 2014: Free agent.
$15M deferred without interest, paid through 2021, If traded, deferrals are are voided and paid up-front.

That means the reds give up a 15 million dollar 0% loan that they have 9 years to pay back if they trade Arroyo. They have to pay the $15 million to him the moment he gets traded. Where is that gonna come from?

The Reds? Nope. Don't have it... plus this trade was to free up money for Oswalt. If we trade Arroyo for a ham sandwhich the net effect on the 2012 budget is to ADD 8 million, not save a penny.

The trade partner? Not a chance. No team is gonna pay 28.5 million for 2 years of Arroyo.

Arroyo? Not a chance. He like Cincy and the Reds and hates being traded (see 2007 article). He is guaranteed the 28.5 million, so why rework his contract? At a minimum he would want a couple of years added to the contract at a reasonable rate (6 million + per year). That means our trade partner has to be willing to pay over 40 million for 4 years of Arroyo. Not gonna happen based on his recent performance and age.

I see no way that a straight up trade of Arroyo actually saves the Reds money in 2012. The only players who could save us enough money to sign Oswalt are Phillips and Rolen. Trading Phillips does not make sense in a go for it year, since the drop in production at 2B would more than counter the difference between Oswalt and Arroyo. No team would trade for Rolen right now.

HOWEVER... if Walt were willing to "sell" some of our prospects he could trade Arroyo. For example, Arroyo + Billy Hamilton + Yorman + Dan Corcino for a ham sandwich plus 20 million in cash might be acceptable to a big dollar team.... but wow is that a lot to pay to free up salary to sign Oswalt.

[alett12]

True, but he has options. I don't see all the starters coming out of spring training being ready, or healthy. Look what happened last year (with Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey). If they are, then you deal with it then. Trades, DFAs, DL. If the Reds are truly all in, as most think, then the potential upside by adding Oswalt is worth the gamble.

I'm just not seeing where 2+2=4 here. Signing Oswalt would mean you WOULD NOT be putting your best team on the feild at this point. Besides, how much money can walt spend?

[SweetLou1990]

Gotta save the last big signing for a left fielder when there are already to many arms ?

[alett12]

I just wish they'd sign a couple guys to minor league deals so no one has to listen to this crap

[It8ifyifitsgrif]

Although I think Oswalt will make our rotation better, how much better? and at what cost?

If he only gives us a win or two; I don't see spending that kind of money to hamper the young development of Leake and Bailey.

I think the best situation would have been not signing Arroyo a year ago and have the money to put into Oswalt. The Arroyo extension looks worse and worse day by day.

[Red Raindog]

Simply forget about the idea that trading arroyo is in any way a money saver or even a wash. 15 million of arroyos salary that is currently deferred until 2015-2020 is due immediately if we trade him.

I thought that was what I was saying -- his money is a sunk cost.

[[deleted]]

I don't quite understand why us fans and the front office seem so committed to letting Arroyo start even in the (hypothetical) face of better options.

We signed Arroyo to a monstrous, terrible, awful contract. We have to live with that.

But, if it were somehow possible to miraculously bring Oswalt to Cincinnati, why wouldn't we kick Bronson out of the rotation? Why wouldn't slide him into a long relief bullpen role?

He is clearly our worst starting pitcher, and if Oswalt was in town that gap would get even wider. Would management REALLY continue to pitch him and jettison Leake/Bailey, JUST because we are paying him so much? That notion infuriates me, especially when everyone seems to believe we are "all in." Do we really think they wouldn't swallow their pride and kick him out of the rotation? I can't comprehend how having Arroyo would (or SHOULD) prevent a deal like this from happening (money aside, of course).

[It8ifyifitsgrif]

;2528873']I don't quite understand why us fans and the front office seem so committed to letting Arroyo start even in the (hypothetical) face of better options.

We signed Arroyo to a monstrous, terrible, awful contract. We have to live with that.

But, if it were somehow possible to miraculously bring Oswalt to Cincinnati, why wouldn't we kick Bronson out of the rotation? Why wouldn't slide him into a long relief bullpen role?

He is clearly our worst starting pitcher, and if Oswalt was in town that gap would get even wider. Would management REALLY continue to pitch him and jettison Leake/Bailey, JUST because we are paying him so much? That notion infuriates me, especially when everyone seems to believe we are "all in." Do we really think they wouldn't swallow their pride and kick him out of the rotation? I can't comprehend how having Arroyo would (or SHOULD) prevent a deal like this from happening (money aside, of course).

I totally agree but we are talking about the Reds. If moving Griffey to RF took 3 years; I can only imagine what it will take to get Arroyo out of the pen.

[dMaus14]

Can someone answer this question for me ... Why didnt we sign Votto after 2009 to a contract similar to Pujols' first contract? 7 years and $100M? It was after his 3rd year and 2009 would have been after Votto's second full year.

[jhu1321]

He wouldn't sign for more than three.

[Jefferson24]

Can someone answer this question for me ... Why didnt we sign Votto after 2009 to a contract similar to Pujols' first contract? 7 years and $100M? It was after his 3rd year and 2009 would have been after Votto's second full year.

Votto was only willing to sign for as many years as the Reds already had control of him. He wishes to have options the first year he hits free agency. He didn't say he didn't want to stay in Cincy, he just basically said at this time he didn't want to commit himself. Most people interpret that to mean he is looking to leave after 2013, probably a safe bet. Especially since he will demand big money at that time and I think it is unlikely the Reds could win a bidding war.

[dMaus14]

That was after 2010 and winning a MVP going into his first arbitration year that he did that. I'm talking about in the offseason going into 2010 why didnt we try to extend him.

[jhu1321]

That was after 2010 and winning a MVP going into his first arbitration year that he did that. I'm talking about in the offseason going into 2010 why didnt we try to extend him.

I think the answer remains the same. Votto stated that he can't imagine seeing himself knowing where he wants to be 7 years down the road. Maybe his answer will be different if he's offered 9 years and 214 million. Puke.

[alett12]

The reds will be on Votto this coming offseason with an extremely competitive offer the question is how many season ticket holders will they have to get to pull off an extention?

[Old NDN]

One solution/option to the Oswalt question would be to move Bailey to the pen. Trading Masset (freeing up 2mil.?), or Arrendondo (2mill.?) would help ease the $$ pain.

[alett12]

One solution/option to the Oswalt question would be to move Bailey to the pen. Trading Masset (freeing up 2mil.?), or Arrendondo (2mill.?) would help ease the $$ pain.

Moving Baliey to the pen would be a good idea in my opinion with his recent DL history it worries me that he won't be able to ever go 200 IP like he should but Oswalt would only be a 1 year fix.

[The Rage]

Bailey to the pen isn't happening. Doesn't have the mechanics for it. Oswalt isn't coming here people. He isn't worth the money he wants so he throws a fit.

Fwiw, Bailey has bulked up to 225 pounds wow!!!

[alett12]

Bailey to the pen isn't happening. Doesn't have the mechanics for it. Oswalt isn't coming here people. He isn't worth the money he wants so he throws a fit.

Fwiw, Bailey has bulked up to 225 pounds wow!!!

I see no problem with him bulking up, he's just losing what baby fat he has left.

[BEETTLEBUG]

The Reds need to match or go above the Cardinals we can't let them have him, we got to get him and fit him in how ever possible.

[joshua]

The Cardinals are the very last place I want Oswalt. Wainwright, Carp and Oswalt in a series would be rough.

[Rijo's Ghost]

Free agent starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, according to ESPNBoston.com.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2011-10/hot-stove-league/story/report-roy-oswalt-signs-with-st-louis-cardinals

[The Rage]

Please, give the Cardinals some Geritol. Oswalt had less war than Francis sad.

[goreds2]

Hail no!

[Rijo's Ghost]

Please, give the Cardinals some Geritol. Oswalt had less war than Francis sad.
That's because it's a counting stat.

[Old NDN]

The Reds need to match or go above the Cardinals we can't let them have him, we got to get him and fit him in how ever possible.

Nah, the Reds don't need him:confused: Let's just go with the ineffective (Arroyo), the oft-injured (Bailey), or the lost (Chapman). The Reds just couldn't fit him in. (sarcasm) This was an opportunity to go one up on the Cards, and they blew it, IMO.

[bmwreds31]

ughhhhhh. Cards getting him :thumbdown::thumbdown::thumbdown:Thats just bad news.

[DaytonFlyer]

Cards getting more old, injury-prone talent. This is GREAT news if anything. We got the Oswalt monkey off our back last year. I'm not worried.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Cards Close To Deal With Oswalt; BoSox, Astros In Mix
By Mark Polishuk [January 28 at 8:03am CST]
SATURDAY, 8:03am: Oswalt is likely to sign with the Cardinals "soon," reports Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. His source cautioned that it's "not yet 100 percent," however. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that Oswalt turned down a one-year, $10MM offer from the Tigers, and that being close to his Mississippi home is a major factor in his decision.

[DGullett35]

Oswalt to the Cards, mabey he's just trying to get back at Cincy since we wouldnt sign him when he had interest in our club. Good move esp. on a 1 year deal. the guy can still be rather productive if healthy and thats a big IF but I think on a 1 year deal he will do good. Just hope he gets lit up the 2 or 3 times we will face him this year.

[[deleted]]

This really makes my heart drop. I truly think Oswalt going to St. Louis would let them pull ahead as the clear favorites in the division.

If it's true that his people contacted us and we didn't even entertain the idea... Well, we better pray this contract is for 10+ mil, otherwise we'll look pretty inept for not making it work. Maybe I'm being harsh because this stings so much right now, but damn.

[Tadasimha]

Cards getting more old, injury-prone talent. This is GREAT news if anything. We got the Oswalt monkey off our back last year. I'm not worried.

Spot on.

:thumbup:

[brad1176]

Not so fast, per mlbtraderumors:

The Cardinals insist that there's no deal in place with Oswalt, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). General Manager John Mozeliak also denied that the club is near a deal with Oswalt.

[[deleted]]

For what it's worth, Bill James and RotoChamp both project Oswalt to throw over 170 innings and post a better ERA/FIP than Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo (James predicts numbers better than Cueto's, as well).

ZiPS also sees him putting up a better ERA than Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo over a similar amount of innings.

I know these projections aren't the absolute end-all... but at this point before the season starts all we can do is discuss how we feel certain players will perform. And certainly no offense to anyone here, but when it comes to it... I trust professional analysts and statisticians of this caliber more than most fans.

Consider this: so many people here are posting about how Oswalt is old, breaking down, and on the decline. He's 34.

He's the same age as Arroyo.

But we all seem fine counting on Arroyo. I mean, he was battling through mono last year, right? He's bound to bounce back. Doesn't matter that Bronson doesn't have nearly the pedigree or track record that Oswalt has.

I don't know if there is money left for Roy Oswalt or not. But if there is even a slight chance of making it happen, the Reds need to do whatever they can to get it done.

[The Rage]

;2530612']For what it's worth, Bill James and RotoChamp both project Oswalt to throw over 170 innings and post a better ERA/FIP than Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo (James predicts numbers better than Cueto's, as well).

ZiPS also sees him putting up a better ERA than Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo over a similar amount of innings.

I know these projections aren't the absolute end-all... but at this point before the season starts all we can do is discuss how we feel certain players will perform. And certainly no offense to anyone here, but when it comes to it... I trust professional analysts and statisticians of this caliber more than most fans.

Consider this: so many people here are posting about how Oswalt is old, breaking down, and on the decline. He's 34.

He's the same age as Arroyo.

But we all seem fine counting on Arroyo. I mean, he was battling through mono last year, right? He's bound to bounce back. Doesn't matter that Bronson doesn't have nearly the pedigree or track record that Oswalt has.

I don't know if there is money left for Roy Oswalt or not. But if there is even a slight chance of making it happen, the Reds need to do whatever they can to get it done.

James and Zips suffer from last yearitis. Oswalt barely could stay healthy and provided the same war at Francis. They get to happy on numbers ignoring his prior years of decline and lack of innings

[UCBrownsfan]

James and Zips suffer from last yearitis. Oswalt barely could stay healthy and provided the same war at Francis. They get to happy on numbers ignoring his prior years of decline and lack of innings

Prior years of decline?

You mean like 2010 with his 211 Innings pitched and a 2.76 ERA, and 5+ WAR, yeah that wouldn't help us.

[[deleted]]

Prior years of decline?

You mean like 2010 with his 211 Innings pitched and a 2.76 ERA, and 5+ WAR, yeah that wouldn't help us.

Exactly. I have no idea where people are getting this idea that Oswalt is just barely capable of hobbling to the mound and throwing 100 innings. He was hurt last year. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that this injury will affect him going forward - especially considering how he performed in September.

And if we're honestly using the Jeff Francis WAR argument - well, Francis also had a higher WAR than Leake. And Bailey. And Arroyo. And was literally .2 away from Cueto.

So I guess he's our number 3 guy.

[RedsfaninMT]

I started this thread stating he would be an amazing addition, and I stand by that statement. He's one tough SOB. Whomever signs him will have one determined and talented pitcher on their roster.

[BEETTLEBUG]

I agree as I said the other day get it done Walt and make more money by putting fanny's in the seats.

[The Rage]

;2530650']Exactly. I have no idea where people are getting this idea that Oswalt is just barely capable of hobbling to the mound and throwing 100 innings. He was hurt last year. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that this injury will affect him going forward - especially considering how he performed in September.

And if we're honestly using the Jeff Francis WAR argument - well, Francis also had a higher WAR than Leake. And Bailey. And Arroyo. And was literally .2 away from Cueto.

So I guess he's our number 3 guy.

Oh come on. The point of the war comment was that Oswalt isn't worth the money. If Bailey gets his mechanical glitch under control, than he is better than Oswalt. Oswalt is 35 years old, has bad years previously and isn't getting any younger. Yet people overrate him. We wonder why baseball salaries get out of control. The Detroit Tigers are example numero uno.

[[deleted]]

Oh come on. The point of the war comment was that Oswalt isn't worth the money. If Bailey gets his mechanical glitch under control, than he is better than Oswalt. Oswalt is 35 years old, has bad years previously and isn't getting any younger. Yet people overrate him. We wonder why baseball salaries get out of control. The Detroit Tigers are example numero uno.

1. Homer Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 6 years now. If he is suffering from a "mechanical glitch," don't hinge a season on him figuring it out. We can play the "well this season will be great if so-and-so matures or if this guy plays to his potential" all day. In fact, it's all we did between the 2010 and 2011 seasons. We know how that turned out.

2. I would certainly not say Bailey is a glitch away from being better than Roy Oswalt. There is no indication of this being the case.

3. Oswalt is 34 (again, same age as Bronson!*), and of course he isn't getting younger. No one is! Your other point totally perplexes me and I'd love if you could explain - Roy Oswalt has never had a bad year. When has he been anything other than above-average? How exactly are we overrating him? He threw 140 (very good) innings last year. All signs point to him trending back toward his old self in 2012 - in September (after returning from the back injury) his velocity and strikeout % were up to where they were before he was hurt. What stats or trends are you seeing to indicate otherwise?

4. Bad contract?! He's looking for a ONE year deal reportedly around 8 million. That's an absolute steal, considering he'd instantly be our 3rd best starter, and I honestly would not be surprised at all if he out-pitched Cueto next year as well.

The Cardinals already have a better offense than us. I think their starting five bests ours as well. We have a deeper bullpen and a muuuuch better defense, but severely lack SP depth. If the Cards land Oswalt, it will make the gap between the rotations much larger. If we can somehow become aggressive enough to sign him, our odds become much, much better.

*heh, actually Bronson is older - he'll be 35 at the start of the season.

[Spider Tre]

he pitched batting practice to the Reds in his last 3 appearances so no worries

[Alpha Zero]

;2530708']1. Homer Bailey has been playing professional baseball for 6 years now. If he is suffering from a "mechanical glitch," don't hinge a season on him figuring it out. We can play the "well this season will be great if so-and-so matures or if this guy plays to his potential" all day. In fact, it's all we did between the 2010 and 2011 seasons. We know how that turned out.

2. I would certainly not say Bailey is a glitch away from being better than Roy Oswalt. There is no indication of this being the case.

3. Oswalt is 34 (again, same age as Bronson!*), and of course he isn't getting younger. No one is! Your other point totally perplexes me and I'd love if you could explain - Roy Oswalt has never had a bad year. When has he been anything other than above-average? How exactly are we overrating him? He threw 140 (very good) innings last year. All signs point to him trending back toward his old self in 2012 - in September (after returning from the back injury) his velocity and strikeout % were up to where they were before he was hurt. What stats or trends are you seeing to indicate otherwise?

4. Bad contract?! He's looking for a ONE year deal reportedly around 8 million. That's an absolute steal, considering he'd instantly be our 3rd best starter, and I honestly would not be surprised at all if he out-pitched Cueto next year as well.

The Cardinals already have a better offense than us. I think their starting five bests ours as well. We have a deeper bullpen and a muuuuch better defense, but severely lack SP depth. If the Cards land Oswalt, it will make the gap between the rotations much larger. If we can somehow become aggressive enough to sign him, our odds become much, much better.

*heh, actually Bronson is older - he'll be 35 at the start of the season.

I couldn't agree more. If the Cards get Oswalt, they are extremely dangerous. At this moment, I think the Reds and Cards are neck and neck, but I'd have to give them the edge over the Reds in 2012 with Oswalt. I wish the situation wasn't complicated by Arroyo's deal and Homer's lack of options. Oswalt is clearly a better option than either of those two guys, and it's unfortunate that the Reds don't have the cash or roster flexibility to add him on a very reasonable one year deal. At the very least, let's pray that he doesn't actually wind up in St. Louis.

[Old NDN]

If reports are accurate, it doesn't appear Oswalt is interested going over to the AL...unless it's the Rangers. He's said to have rejected offers from Detroit and Boston. That pretty much narrows down his options of teams interested, or willing to pay the asking price in the NL. He's expressed interest in the Cards in the past. As I said in previous threads and posts, I think he winds up a Card, and for a lot less money. Apparently, unlike the Reds, I think StL is willing to figure out a way to make it work.

[BEETTLEBUG]

True Walt is afraid!!!

[RedsfaninMT]

mlbtraderumors.com now saying Oswalt looking for $10 million from Cards, so they are looking to trade McCllelan to fit him in their "budget." I want Oswalt, but $10 million is a chunk of change. No chance Castellini loosens the purse strings that much.

[goreds2]

No way for 10 million. Not with someone with back issues. :thumbdown:

[alett12]

No way for 10 million. Not with someone with back issues. :thumbdown:

And how much are they paying Bronson?

[bmwreds31]

And how much are they paying Bronson?

over 10 i believe

[alett12]

over 10 i believe

Yeah they aren't dumping that unless Boston gets desperate

[bigredmechanism]

And how much are they paying Bronson?

Too much. But it still doesn't justify picking up another aging veteran with back problems. Two wrongs don't make a right, and all that.

[alett12]

Too much. But it still doesn't justify picking up another aging veteran with back problems. Two wrongs don't make a right, and all that.

I'm completely against bringing in Oswalt. I would rather see them try and bring in Edwin Jackson on a one year deal if they were going to bring in another pitcher.

[Larkin88]

I'm completely against bringing in Oswalt. I would rather see them try and bring in Edwin Jackson on a one year deal if they were going to bring in another pitcher.

Difference is Oswalt is planning on coming back for a one year deal. Jackson has already received multiple multi-year deals. No better place to improve your value as a pitcher in one year than the NL Central. Unfortunately, I think he'll be wearing the birds on the bat on his chest.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/edwin_jackson/

[alett12]

Difference is Oswalt is planning on coming back for a one year deal. Jackson has already received multiple multi-year deals. No better place to improve your value as a pitcher in one year than the NL Central. Unfortunately, I think he'll be wearing the birds on the bat on his chest.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/edwin_jackson/

Yeah, Jackson has said he would take a one year deal to a contender such as Boston but the reds would fall in that category as well

[UCBrownsfan]

Oh come on. The point of the war comment was that Oswalt isn't worth the money. If Bailey gets his mechanical glitch under control, than he is better than Oswalt. Oswalt is 35 years old, has bad years previously and isn't getting any younger. Yet people overrate him. We wonder why baseball salaries get out of control. The Detroit Tigers are example numero uno.

He's 34, will turn 35 in August.

What bad year... much less years?
As compared to Bailey, Oswalts worst year is still significantly better than Baileys best. Not even close. The Reds haven't had a pitcher as good in my lifetime, maybe Rijo (I'd say definetly Rijo if he would have been able to stay healthy a little longer).'

And for the decline argument... since being traded to Philly his WHIP, ERA, and HR /9 are down from his career avgs

[Pony Boy]

Seems like the right time for the Reds to make a run at Oswalt. He apparently isnt thrilled with the Cards' offer.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/01/roy-oswalt-is-not-happy-with-the-cardinals-offer/

[TeamSelig]

Wow... Cueto/Latos/Oswalt would be an awesome top half of the rotation... especially with guys like Leake/Bailey continuing to improve.

Too bad we couldn't dump Arroyo's contract... or at least enough of it to cover the tab for Oswalt.

[TeamSelig]

Also I forgot to mention... if he signs with the Cards he is guaranteed to go like 23-1 with a 2.15 ERA. Seems like they are the luckiest team ever with their signings.

[Red in Atl]

Not without LaRussa and Duncan working their black magic. It's a new world for the cards. See the Braves without Leo.

10 million for a sub-500 pitcher? Yes he was great. Yes he's a gamer. But I'd rather save that money to make a splash come July if we need it. No way you can make the WS without some kind of depth acquired during the season. Too many things happen.

[alett12]

I don't think Oswalt would really help and no one will take on bronson's contract unless they are extremely desprate so I see no need for bringing in another ageing veteran starter who is obivously well past his prime.

[Revering4Blue]

Not without LaRussa and Duncan working their black magic. It's a new world for the cards. See the Braves without Leo.

10 million for a sub-500 pitcher? Yes he was great. Yes he's a gamer. But I'd rather save that money to make a splash come July if we need it. No way you can make the WS without some kind of depth acquired during the season. Too many things happen.

You make some excellent points. It is way too early to be concerned about what the Cards may or may not be doing.

I'd take my chances and upgrade at the deadline, if need be. While Jocketty certainly has his weaknesses as a whealer-dealer--overpaying and bidding against himself--it is not out of the realm of possibility that he pulls off a deal akin to the deal which brought David Wells to the Reds in '95 at a non cost-prohibitive price.

[Pony Boy]

Let's pretend that we signed Oswalt today. What moves would the Reds make to fit him into the rotation? Trade Bailey or Leake? Move someone to the pen? Go with a 6-man rotation? Move Bronson to left field and trade Heisey? All options are on the table.

[Red Raindog]

I don't think Oswalt would really help and no one will take on bronson's contract unless they are extremely desprate so I see no need for bringing in another ageing veteran starter who is obivously well past his prime.

where do you get: another ageing veteran starter who is obivously well past his prime. ????

I'm serious here --- Take a look at his numbers --- paint me a picture -- tell me something about your thought process -- I don't think we are going to get him but I keep seeing you post statements like this and I have to wonder where do you get this idea?

Humor me -- please

[[deleted]]

Amen. Oswalt is still a top tier talent. He has been nothing but productive and consistent his entire career. He was hurt last year and missed some time. His talent, though, did not suffer.

Consider this: Roy Halladay is the same age as Oswalt. If he hurt his back and only pitched 140 innings this year (of Roy Halladay caliber) and then became a free agent, would you seriously shy away from signing him? Obviously Oswalt isn't on the same level as Halladay, but he's not THAT far off.

The ONLY reason the Reds should have for not signing Oswalt is financial. He would be a major upgrade to a rotation that could very well be bad in 2012.

You would slot Arroyo in a long relief role if it happened.

[IamRV]

If the Reds signed Oswalt and everyone remained healthy for opening day

1) Oswalt would make the rotation as the #3 or 4 guy

2) Arroyo can't be traded with that contract and the Red's brass won't allow him to be long relief at 12mil

3) Bailey is out of options so he'd have to stay in the rotation. Those that even consider trading him can't be serious as Oswalt would be here on a 1 year deal so you can't jeopardize the 2013 starting staff

4) The only logical option would be to place Leake in AAA

[vottofan4life]

it may sound like the worst trade ever but why not send bronson arroyo and drew stubbs plus a prospect over to the astros for wandy rodriguez and carlos lee. Lee becomes backup left fielder and 1b while either moving heisey to center or sign ankiel

[HatchMo]

it may sound like the worst trade ever but why not send bronson arroyo and drew stubbs plus a prospect over to the astros for wandy rodriguez and carlos lee. Lee becomes backup left fielder and 1b while either moving heisey to center or sign ankiel


LOL. Trade one bad contract for a worse one?

I think if we are going to consider signing oswalt, we would need to move bronson to the pen.

[Red Raindog]

If the Reds signed Oswalt and everyone remained healthy for opening day

1) Oswalt would make the rotation as the #3 or 4 guy

2) Arroyo can't be traded with that contract and the Red's brass won't allow him to be long relief at 12mil

3) Bailey is out of options so he'd have to stay in the rotation. Those that even consider trading him can't be serious as Oswalt would be here on a 1 year deal so you can't jeopardize the 2013 starting staff

4) The only logical option would be to place Leake in AAA

Because I don't there is a snowball's chance he signs with the Reds due to his contact wishes & the Reds' budget constraints I feel this is all conjecture -- But if the Reds could have him I would suggest they could eat Bronson's contract and pay most of his salary to move him -- after all -- many people think he is toast and the money is already wasted.

In truth I think he can have value but I'm always looking for an upgrade & I think Oswalt is that.

And most of all -- it is not my money!

YMMV

[BEETTLEBUG]

That is not going to happen but could it with Janish also in the deal.?

[[deleted]]

2) Arroyo can't be traded with that contract and the Red's brass won't allow him to be long relief at 12mil

I just can't understand this line of thinking, from the perspective of fans or the FO.

We signed Arroyo to a god awful contract. A terrible contract. He is untrade-able, no doubt.

But, as I posted earlier in the topic, would management REALLY let this stupid contract keep us from potential upgrades? I mean, there is no doubt Arroyo is the weakest link of this rotation. He was flat out, straight up awful last season. No way around it, mono or not. If we (money aside) could bring in someone like Oswalt, would they REALLY ship Leake down and continue to pitch Arroyo, JUST because he's making money? Our pride is that much of a weak point that we wouldn't suck it up and admit to making a mistake, realize what our best options are, and let Arroyo play the long relief game? During a season in which we're apparently "going for it"?

I find that so hard to believe.

And yet I believe it.

And that, plainly, is stupid.

[texasdave]

The question is whether the living-for-the-moment Reds will make the suddenly deep-pocketed Jays wait until after 2013 or trade him a year from now. Smart money says general manager Walt Jocketty will trade him when Anthopoulos makes an overwhelming offer — one that might have to be a three-team deal as the Reds like 23-year-old catcher Devin Mesoraco as much as the Jays like Arencibia and d’Arnaud, one of whom will make a tantalizing bargaining chip.

Courtesy ORG, courtesty John Fay's Blog, courtesy Phil Rodgers of the Chicago Tribune.

What does trading Joey Votto have to do with signing Roy Oswalt? Well, if Votto is gone after 2012 then use the money set aside for Votto's 2013 contract to do so. If Joey Baseball is only going to be around one more year, then d*mn the torpedoes and full speed ahead. Sign Oswalt yesterday.

[alett12]

If the Reds signed Oswalt and everyone remained healthy for opening day

1) Oswalt would make the rotation as the #3 or 4 guy

2) Arroyo can't be traded with that contract and the Red's brass won't allow him to be long relief at 12mil

3) Bailey is out of options so he'd have to stay in the rotation. Those that even consider trading him can't be serious as Oswalt would be here on a 1 year deal so you can't jeopardize the 2013 starting staff

4) The only logical option would be to place Leake in AAA

Bailey can go to he pen. Leake was your 2nd best starter last season and matches up with almost any 3rd man in baseball you wouldn't start him in Louisville for anyone unless you can bring in 3 more guys with the ablilty of Cueto and Latos

[lidspinner]

2) Arroyo can't be traded with that contract and the Red's brass won't allow him to be long relief at 12mil






I am not saying your wrong here, because I know there are some GM's that think just like this....but if this is the thinking of the Reds brass then I need to find a new team....at no point ever should you allow a contract stop you from winning and signing another, better player.....

in some cases you have road blocks, such as why would the sign a 1st baseman when Joey is there, even if the 1st baseman is better.....but at the pitchers spot you have so many options to arrange that you should never NOT sign a better pitcher just beacuse one of your pitchers has a bad contract and must be used for that spot.....Bronson can go to long relief and if he dont like it then he can forfeit his contract and move on.....you dont pass up on a chance to get better for situations like this.....never...

[alett12]

I really don't think Oswalt is that much better than Bronson at this point. Bronson drives me nuts but if he wouldn't make it in the pen with his stuff now, even in long relief because he wouldn't get to use all of his pitches.

[[deleted]]

There is not a single argument that can be made for Oswalt not being better than Arroyo in facet of the game at this point. Oswalt has been fantastic his entire career and was above-average in limited playing time in 2011. Arroyo has been decent his entire career and was beyond dreadful in 2011, among the worst players in all of baseball. Seriously... are you aware of just how awful he was last season? How you could possibly consider Arroyo an upgrade over Oswalt, especially in light of all the evidence and numbers provided in this thread, is baffling to me.

I really am starting to think that pitching has a chance of killing this team, just like it did last year. We simply don't have the depth. Latos is solid, no doubt. Cueto will certainly regress, but still be good. Leake and Bailey are decent back-enders. If one of them takes big strides forward, it will really improve our chances. But we just can't rely on that happening. That's what we did last year. It led to a huge disappointment. Arroyo is a disaster. If he's even nearly as bad as he was last year, we're in for a long season.

Before the Madson signing, before the Ludwick signing, SP should have continued to be a priority. For the money we paid those guys, we could have had an Oswalt or a Jackson. Marshall could have closed, and we could have thrown some change at Fokudome or someone similar for the LF backup.

As of right now, we have one great pitcher, one good one, two decent ones, and one embarrassing one. Jeff Francis and Sam LeCure are our spot-start options. And we'll need them, a lot. No team has 5 starters pitch every game - injuries happen, and Leake and Bailey certainly won't touch 200 innings.

I know this is a lot of hind-sight talk and I'm not really offering any solutions, but I'm just frustrated after seeing teams already with a "set five" like Washington, St. Louis, and Boston continue to aggressively try and add quality starters because they know what we all know (I mean, it is a cliche): pitching wins championships. I'm not convinced we have it right now.

[texasdave]

It would certainly be nice if the Reds had one more solid starter in the fold. Starting depth is tenuous at best. Especially in light of the fact that Cueto and Bailey were both hurt a couple of times last season. Of all of the positions in which an organization should strive for quality depth, starting pitching should be at the top of the list.

[HatchMo]

Bailey takes a month to warm up, so he will never pitch out of the pen.

[alett12]

Bailey takes a month to warm up, so he will never pitch out of the pen.

Bailey can pitch out of the pen saying he can't is a load of crap

[Larkin88]

Bailey can pitch out of the pen saying he can't is a load of crap

Actually, it's a pretty commonly held observation and belief that the length in which he takes to warm up, makes him poorly suited for that role. From Hal McCoy to John Fay to Daugherty to bloggers everywhere. "Load of crap" is a stretch. Why have someone do something they are not well suited for just because?

[alett12]

Why have someone do something they are not well suited for just because?

Well lets look at this, say Chapman makes it as a starter five reasons he could pitch out of the pen.
1. Dusty won't take Bronson out of the rotation
2. Leake was the reds 2nd best pitcher last year and is the 3rd best this year.
3. Latos and Cueto aren't going in the pen
4. His injury concerns are decreased.
5. He would provide an arm that could be used more frequently than other guys in the pen.

[Larkin88]

Well lets look at this, say Chapman makes it as a starter five reasons he could pitch out of the pen.
1. Dusty won't take Bronson out of the rotation
2. Leake was the reds 2nd best pitcher last year and is the 3rd best this year.
3. Latos and Cueto aren't going in the pen
4. His injury concerns are decreased.
5. He would provide an arm that could be used more frequently than other guys in the pen.

Yep. If all those reasons were true, that should just about tell you why the Reds would not / are not signing Oswalt and why, as a result, Bailey will never have to be forced into a bullpen role he wouldn't be suited for. Thanks for clearing that up for yourself.

Now as for why your reasons are wrong, or at least baseless conjecture... First of all, Chapman will probably begin the season in Louisville. He will not be a starter on the Reds staff to begin with. But beyond that...


Bronson is our highest paid pitcher for reasons we may not entirely understand. Reducing his role below anything other than a starter because he had a poor season last year is a stupid way to squander the inning-eating value that almost makes his annual salary easier to stomach.
Leake could perhaps be our third best starter this season, but even this season isn't projected to throw more than 175 innings or so. He's young and will be shut down. Additionally, he had a .260 opposing BABIP last season, which may mean he'll regress just a little bit.
More of a non-point than a point, but I agree.
Based on what? You saying that they're decreased? They sure weren't decreased in 2011, I don't know what team you were watching.
He would be limited in clutch situations or decisions made on the fly due to his inability to warm-up quickly. Which kind of brings us full circle back to the beginning of this argument.

[alett12]

Yep. If all those reasons were true, that should just about tell you why the Reds would not / are not signing Oswalt and why, as a result, Bailey will never have to be forced into a bullpen role he wouldn't be suited for. Thanks for clearing that up for yourself.

Now as for why your reasons are wrong, or at least baseless conjecture... First of all, Chapman will probably begin the season in Louisville. He will not be a starter on the Reds staff to begin with. But beyond that...


Bronson is our highest paid pitcher for reasons we may not entirely understand. Reducing his role below anything other than a starter because he had a poor season last year is a stupid way to squander the inning-eating value that almost makes his annual salary easier to stomach.
Leake could perhaps be our third best starter this season, but even this season isn't projected to throw more than 175 innings or so. He's young and will be shut down. Additionally, he had a .260 opposing BABIP last season, which may mean he'll regress just a little bit.
More of a non-point than a point, but I agree.
Based on what? You saying that they're decreased? They sure weren't decreased in 2011, I don't know what team you were watching.
He would be limited in clutch situations or decisions made on the fly due to his inability to warm-up quickly. Which kind of brings us full circle back to the beginning of this argument.


Last time i saw Leake was projected to go up around 35 more innings which would put him around 200 considering he threw 168 this year and I think he'll keep getting better as he gets more experince.
The injury risks for Bailey would be decreased by putting him in the pen that is what i meant there.
I think once you got Bailey settled in the pen he would get warmed up faster which you can't prove or disprove untill you try it but you have to look at it as a possiblity and you have to look at how much better his fastball gets when you put him in the pen as well which is something that wouldn't for for putting leake in the pen because he throws so many different pitches he would not be able to use them all effectively like he does starting bailey doesn't have that problem, and I believe that the number of pitches he has will be one reason Chapman will end up in the bullpen because you really do need a change up to get guys off your fastball as a starter.

[The Rage]

Last time i saw Leake was projected to go up around 35 more innings which would put him around 200 considering he threw 168 this year and I think he'll keep getting better as he gets more experince.
The injury risks for Bailey would be decreased by putting him in the pen that is what i meant there.
I think once you got Bailey settled in the pen he would get warmed up faster which you can't prove or disprove untill you try it but you have to look at it as a possiblity and you have to look at how much better his fastball gets when you put him in the pen as well which is something that wouldn't for for putting leake in the pen because he throws so many different pitches he would not be able to use them all effectively like he does starting bailey doesn't have that problem, and I believe that the number of pitches he has will be one reason Chapman will end up in the bullpen because you really do need a change up to get guys off your fastball as a starter.

The only reason Bailey has been "injured" is because of dirty arm action. Nothing more or less. Bailey has been so off balance, it puts pressure on his shoulder. Lucky Bailey has such a nice base to his delivery, it isn't a knockout. As 2009 showed, get Bailey fluid and on tempo, he is a workhorse. At that point, he was a 6-7 inning pitcher due to unrefined frontals as well. Think what he could do now! The Reds have him bulked up and supposedly a slightly different glove angle. We will see if that throws him back into a fluid, on tempo motion.

Putting Bailey in the pen doesn't do much. It makes him a bigger injury risk throwing on a cold shoulder, no matter if the mechanical glitch is fixed.

[DGullett35]

Bailey is still young and IMO has a chance to be a very good TOR starter for this ballclub. He has the stuff to do it. With him I think its just getting his head right. I for one have never wanted to get rid of him or move him to the bullpen. Leave him right where he is in the #4 spot(you have to split up the softossers Arroyo and Leake) and if he doesnt do anything this year than I say a change of scenery might be good for him. I have always liked Homer. I hope Price can help him find it this year because he can be a great pitcher if it all comes together.

[alett12]

Bailey is still young and IMO has a chance to be a very good TOR starter for this ballclub. He has the stuff to do it. With him I think its just getting his head right. I for one have never wanted to get rid of him or move him to the bullpen. Leave him right where he is in the #4 spot(you have to split up the softossers Arroyo and Leake) and if he doesnt do anything this year than I say a change of scenery might be good for him. I have always liked Homer. I hope Price can help him find it this year because he can be a great pitcher if it all comes together.

I agree completely but I think he would be a better pitcher out of the pen just because it makes his stuff better, it wouldn't do that for Leake if you were to put him there because his stuff isn't hard enough and he relys on a number of pitches

[texasdave]

Jeff Francis and Sam LeCure are our spot-start options.

And Jeff Francis being around is not set in stone. He has a March 28th opt-out date written into his contract. If he isn't going north with the club at the end of spring training and another team needs a starter, he might just be gone.

[brad1176]

And Jeff Francis being around is not set in stone. He has a March 28th opt-out date written into his contract. If he isn't going north with the club at the end of spring training and another team needs a starter, he might just be gone.

That's right, so if Francis opts out, who fills his spot?

[pogslammer]

In my opinion, the Oswalt situation comes down to this. Does having Oswalt in the rotation make the Reds better?
Yes.
Is the improvement significant enough to risk losing future success with some of our current players?
Yes. And I come to this conclusion because it really seems like this is the year the Reds stand a serious chance to make a run at it. All the pieces seem to line up in a way that favors us. And that doesn't happen very often.
I say, try to make a move that will help us win this year because we truly have a chance at something special in 2012.

[Pony Boy]

To me it comes down to this. If Oswalt means that we get rid of Bailey, then what can we get for Bailey? He should still be a valuable player. What about a package of Bailey and Heisey for Alex Gordon?

[alett12]

To me it comes down to this. If Oswalt means that we get rid of Bailey, then what can we get for Bailey? He should still be a valuable player. What about a package of Bailey and Heisey for Alex Gordon?

At this point i would like that package except, KC is loaded with starters and Alex Gordon is the hometown star because he was born and raised near by so fans love him I can't see a deal like this happening.