Reds 2012 Rotation

[brad1176]

With all of the Oswalt talk, I thought I would start a discussion about our rotation, as it currently stands. It doesn't appear that we will sign Oswalt, so what are your expectations for our starters? Who fills in if there are multiple injuries, as happened last year? Here's what I'm projecting:

Latos-17 wins 3.70 ERA
Cueto-15 wins 3.90 ERA
Leake-12 wins 4.10 ERA
Bailey-10 wins 4.30 ERA
Arroyo-8 wins 5.10 ERA

I realize I may be high on some of the win totals, but I think they are within reason, barring injury. If we have two pitchers out at one time, is it Francis and Lecure taking the starts? What happens if three of them go down at one time? It's likely given the injury history of our staff.

[Captain13]

Don't forget Aroldis as the possible 6th starter.

[brad1176]

I thought about him, but I just can't see him being in the rotation this year. I could most definitely be wrong though.

[Big Red Hoss]

I think if all are healthy Chapman will be in AAA working on building his inns.

Ceuto-20 wins. 3.20 ERA- I think he is that good and will be a cy young canidate
Latos- 15 wins 3.95 ERA- I believe he will be good but I think he struggles early with the new ball park.
Leake- 10 wins. 4.05ERA- I think he will be good and consitant but not blow anyone away.
Bailey- 12 wins 4.30 ERA- Bailed out by somebig offensive games he gets his wins but nothing fancy
Arroyo- 10 wins. 4.50 ERA- I think he learned somethings about himself last year.I think he is smart enough to change somethings and contribute to this team in a good way. Still will give up way to many home runs though.

So I got 67 wins from our starters. I think 30 wins from our bullpen will happen and we get to 97 total.

[alett12]

Cueto 20 wins 2.50 era
Latos 17 wins 3.20 era
Leake 17 wins 3.80 era
Arroyo 12 wins 4.50 era
Homer 15 wins 4.00 era

[texasdave]

Cueto 20 wins 2.50 era
Latos 17 wins 3.20 era
Leake 17 wins 3.80 era
Arroyo 12 wins 4.50 era
Homer 15 wins 4.00 era

Break out the champagne if this happens.

[UPRedsFan]

Too high on the ERAs.

I'd say it'll look more like this:

Cueto: 3.00
Latos: 3.25 (he had better numbers away from Petco last year)
Leake: 3.75 (He'll continue getting better this year)
Bailey: 3.90 (If Dusty learns to pull him at the right time, this could be lower)
Arroyo: 4.80 (probably can't hope for much better than this)

With an improved, deep pen I'd expect lots of wins and lower ERA's from the rotation. Dusty won't be afraid to pull a starter and go to his pen and the pen will not give up as many runs on inherited baserunners.

[[deleted]]

Latos: 16 Wins, 3.35 ERA
Cueto: 12 Wins, 3.90 ERA
Leake: 12 Wins, 4.00 ERA
Bailey: 10 Wins, 4.25 ERA
Arroyo: 8 Wins, 5.20 ERA

I think some of these predictions are a little too rose-tinted, but our rotation (with the glaring exception of Arroyo) should be able to hold its own. Let's hope STL's breaks down a bit.

[stripedwarrior]

Cueto: 18 wins, 3.25 ERA
Latos: 17 wins, 3.40 ERA
Leake: 15 wins, 3.75 ERA
Bailey: 12 wins, 3.95 ERA
Arroyo: 10 wins, 4.40 ERA

I think Arroyo bounces back. Bad Arroyo inflates his ERA, possibly as high as 4.50, but still is good enough for at least 10 wins.
Bailey finally starts to put it together. Leake progresses. Latos and Cueto are who we think they are.
Another 22 wins by the bullpen/spot starters, and we are in the playoffs.

[jhu1321]

Cueto 16 wins - 2.9
Latos 17 wins - 3.2
Leake 13 wins - 3.7
Bailey 15 wins - 3.5 (he's the surprise this year)
Arroyo 13 wins - 4.2

:beerme:

[alett12]

I really don't get why everyone is down on leake. Other than cueto he ate more innings per start than anyone else in the reds rotation ecspeacily late in the season and he is projected to throw somewhere around 200 IP as long as they add 35 innings like they did last year.

[Big Red Hoss]

I really don't get why everyone is down on leake. Other than cueto he ate more innings per start than anyone else in the reds rotation ecspeacily late in the season and he is projected to throw somewhere around 200 IP as long as they add 35 innings like they did last year.

I guess I am skeptical of the kid. I hope he proves me wrong.

I would love to have my crow served raw if Im wrong.

[Red Raindog]

Break out the champagne if this happens.

I want some of that drug too

:lol:

[[deleted]]

I don't think 10+ wins and an ERA around 4 constitutes being "down" on Leake. He could outperform that, but I think it's a bit too optimistic to expect an ERA/FIP better than, say, 3.40 or 3.50.

[brad1176]

I agree, I put Leake down for 12 trying to hit it in the middle. I think he could go as high as 14, but 10 is also not out of the question.

[alett12]

I see Leake as being a much better replacement to arroyo in the sense he'll go out and eat up a ton of innings

[brad1176]

What we need is more quality depth at SP. Example: the Yankees have Sabathia, Garcia, Nova, Pineda, Burnett, Hughes, and Kuroda that can start and be effective. Now, I realize that the Yankees can spend what they want, but the Reds 6th and 7th starters of Lecure and Francis just won't cut it.

[Votto4MVP]

Im gonna go with more of a range approach...now its possible they could fall outside these ranges, but id say its a good shot most of them fall somewhere in the range

Cueto-12-17 wins
Latos-12-18 wins
Leake 9-15 wins
Arroyo 10-16 wins
Bailey 8-17 wins

The reason why Baileys range is the biggest is because I really think he will have a great year. He might not put up better numbers then Latos or Cueto, but pitching in the bottom of the order against the Jake Westbrooks of the world should help him. I think he'll put up a lot of wins if he stays healthy.

This shows that if everything goes wrong, our starters will probably win around 51 games. If most things go right, they could combine for just over 80 wins. With that being said, if you take the averages its likely they will combine for something around 65-70 wins, which I think should be enough to get the playoffs. But if one, two, or three guys hit their top ends then they could easily be WS contenders.

[RedsfaninMT]

What we need is more quality depth at SP. Example: the Yankees have Sabathia, Garcia, Nova, Pineda, Burnett, Hughes, and Kuroda that can start and be effective. Now, I realize that the Yankees can spend what they want, but the Reds 6th and 7th starters of Lecure and Francis just won't cut it.

I hear what your saying, but not many clubs have the depth of the Yanks - heck they didn't have it until they had that fate Friday (?) trading for Pineda and signing Kuroda.

Chapman in AAA adds a 6th arm with true depth. Then you have Francis and LeCure as 7 and 8 and that sounds a whole lot better. Chapman can really be the key for this team. No way the starting 5 make it through unscathed, so Chapman has to get ready. IF he has the command, it could be a very decent rotation, IMO.

[brad1176]

I hear what your saying, but not many clubs have the depth of the Yanks - heck they didn't have it until they had that fate Friday (?) trading for Pineda and signing Kuroda.

Chapman in AAA adds a 6th arm with true depth. Then you have Francis and LeCure as 7 and 8 and that sounds a whole lot better. Chapman can really be the key for this team. No way the starting 5 make it through unscathed, so Chapman has to get ready. IF he has the command, it could be a very decent rotation, IMO.

I just don't see Chapman in the mix at all this year, with his control problems and the fact he's never started in bigs. If memory serves correct, he only has two pitches too, that doesn't fly at the big league level. I hope I'm wrong.

[Alpha Zero]

Wow. People are really bullish on Cueto. I know he had a fantastic year last season, but his peripherals don't suggest that he'll repeat it any time soon. I think he's more of a 3.50-3.75 ERA guy moving forward. That's still very good for a number 2 starter.

I see Latos as the ace even though he will be slotted into the second spot in the rotation. Even in GABP, he has the ability to regularly post an ERA in the 3.25-3.50 range. Leake is good for something in the neighborhood of a 4.00 ERA, while Bailey and Arroyo will both likely clock in around 4.25.

[brad1176]

I know that most teams don't have the Yankees depth, I was just using them as an example. Most contenders have more depth at SP than we do though.

[[deleted]]

I know that most teams don't have the Yankees depth, I was just using them as an example. Most contenders have more depth at SP than we do though.

I agree 100%. Lack of rotation depth is our biggest weakness at this point, especially if Arroyo is even half as bad as he was last year. I so wish we could have scooped up someone like Bedard (I think Pitt only gave him 5 million). Hindsight, I suppose - though it's not like we didn't know our pitching was bad!

[OGB]

Cueto 18 wins 3.30 ERA
Latos 16 wins 2.80 ERA
Leake 12 wins 4.00 ERA
Bailey 15 wins 3.50 ERA
Arroyo 9 wins 4.65 ERA

This is the second year in a row I've thought it would be Bailey's break out season. Call me the eternal optimist, but I have my fingers crossed that I'm right about 2012.

[brad1176]

;2534255']I agree 100%. Lack of rotation depth is our biggest weakness at this point, especially if Arroyo is even half as bad as he was last year. I so wish we could have scooped up someone like Bedard (I think Pitt only gave him 5 million). Hindsight, I suppose - though it's not like we didn't know our pitching was bad!

I thought the Bedard signing was brilliant, I would have liked him in a Reds uniform.

[Red Raindog]

Cueto 18 wins 3.30 ERA
Latos 16 wins 2.80 ERA
Leake 12 wins 4.00 ERA
Bailey 15 wins 3.50 ERA
Arroyo 9 wins 4.65 ERA

This is the second year in a row I've thought it would be Bailey's break out season. Call me the eternal optimist, but I have my fingers crossed that I'm right about 2012.

Optimism is nothing but lying to yourself -- man -- I'm hoping I am wrong!

:laugh:

[alett12]

after those top 5 I'd put the depth
6. Chapman
7. Francis
8. Klinker
9. Lecure
I personaly think klinker is way under rated as a prospect but that's just me.

[brad1176]

after those top 5 I'd put the depth
6. Chapman
7. Francis
8. Klinker
9. Lecure
I personaly think klinker is way under rated as a prospect but that's just me.

I think this really shows how little depth we have at SP.

[alett12]

I think this really shows how little depth we have at SP.

It does, yet there aren't really that many starters out on the market still that can provide that much depth

[brad1176]

It does, yet there aren't really that many starters out on the market still that can provide that much depth

No, you're right about that. They should have hung on to Dontrelle.

[alett12]

No, you're right about that. They should have hung on to Dontrelle.

definately, about the only guys i would even think about taking a flyer on would be someone like Kazmir and he is screwed up

[brad1176]

Yeah, Kaz is done, hard to say that about a 28 yr old, but there HAS to be something physically wrong with him.

[alett12]

Yeah, Kaz is done, hard to say that about a 28 yr old, but there HAS to be something physically wrong with him.

yeah, he still wants to pitch in the majors but i don't see that happening mainly because his fastball dropped to around 85, so unless he can learn to pitch like trevor hoffman, i don't see it working to well

[brad1176]

Has Jon Garland signed anywhere?

[texasdave]

after those top 5 I'd put the depth
6. Chapman
7. Francis
8. Klinker
9. Lecure
I personaly think klinker is way under rated as a prospect but that's just me.

Chapman is going to Louisville to learn how to be a starter. I can't see him stepping into the rotation early in the season.
Francis has that opt-out date. He might not be in the Reds' organization come Opening Day.

Can you imagine how ugly it could get if the Reds reprise 2011 by having two starters on the DL to start the season and another starter being sub-par physically?

Lightning never strikes twice. Knock on wood.

[RedsfaninMT]

Chapman is going to Louisville to learn how to be a starter. I can't see him stepping into the rotation early in the season.
Francis has that opt-out date. He might not be in the Reds' organization come Opening Day.

Can you imagine how ugly it could get if the Reds reprise 2011 by having two starters on the DL to start the season and another starter being sub-par physically?

Lightning never strikes twice. Knock on wood.

Knock on him all you want, but he's in Chicago. ;)

[alett12]

Chapman is going to Louisville to learn how to be a starter. I can't see him stepping into the rotation early in the season.
Francis has that opt-out date. He might not be in the Reds' organization come Opening Day.

Can you imagine how ugly it could get if the Reds reprise 2011 by having two starters on the DL to start the season and another starter being sub-par physically?

Lightning never strikes twice. Knock on wood.

Personally I think that Kinker could be in the rotation and do just as well as Bailey has thus far but i don't see him getting the chance to with the reds for the same reason Heisey hasn't gotten the chance to play everyday in the outfield like stubbs and bruce have, they aren't 1st round picks.

[brad1176]

Klinker could get his chance if we have a few SP go down.

[alett12]

True I don't know if Bailey will be able to last but IMO he would be the third guy that they would call up if Francis does stay.

[OGB]

With the regular season winding down, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at some of the prediction threads. It's pretty amazing how much some people (myself included) undersold Cueto and Arroyo going into the year. Here are the starters numbers with each pitcher expected to get 3 or possibly 4 more starts. The win totals might go up a lot, but the ERAs are roughly where they'll be at season's end.

Cueto 17-8 2.71
Latos 12-4 3.72
Arroyo 12-7 3.66
Bailey 11-9 3.93
Leake 8-9 4.69

[WDE]

I didn't look at the dates these were posted so I was sooooooo confused.

[texasdave]

With the regular season winding down, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at some of the prediction threads. It's pretty amazing how much some people (myself included) undersold Cueto and Arroyo going into the year. Here are the starters numbers with each pitcher expected to get 3 or possibly 4 more starts. The win totals might go up a lot, but the ERAs are roughly where they'll be at season's end.

Cueto 17-8 2.71
Latos 12-4 3.72
Arroyo 12-7 3.66
Bailey 11-9 3.93
Leake 8-9 4.69

This entire pitching staff, starters and bullpen, have been a revelation. I thought they would be better than 2011 but not to this degree. :beerme: To Bryan Price.

[texasdave]

18 games left. Assuming nobody is skipped a turn that will be four starts each for Arroyo, Cueto and Latos. 3 more for Leake and Bailey. Not sure if Leake can overtake Bailey at this point for the number 4 spot in the rotation.

[OGB]

This entire pitching staff, starters and bullpen, have been a revelation. I thought they would be better than 2011 but not to this degree. :beerme: To Bryan Price.

I definitely agree that Price deserves quite a bit of credit. There are better 1-5's in baseball, but I don't think there is a better bullpen.
Granted, Masset, Bray, and Madson all figured to be major pieces of our bullpen this offseason, but it may be a long time before we see another pitching staff go through an entire season and stay as healthy as this year's has.
Hell, with Hoover's ability, the Reds top minor league BP arm would've been one of the better pitchers in most team's bullpens this year.

[The Rage]

Mike has been the biggest disappointment. Far to many beatdowns and short outings. The fact he is trailing behind a fringe starter like Bailey is really disappointing.

Mat Latos has been ok. Some real good moments and some horrible ones. Seemed to have a problem adjusting to GAB for half the season.

Arroyo has rebounded, but as been the luckiest of the pitching staff.

Cueto has been the ace. Finally somebody pitching to a 5 WAR.

Then there is Bailey. He is the same guy he from last year. He just didn't get hurt.

[Old NDN]

Just posted in Fay's blog: Updated rotation. Looks like Leake has been skipped a turn. Also means Cueto avoids/misses the Cards series, if things stay the same for the remainder of the season.

[The Rage]

Accomplishes two things: Gets Cueto,Latos,Arroyo lined up and gets Bailey 2 more starts to stay fresh and hopefully give him a boost after last nights debacle against a team and park he loves to pitch at and a Cards team resting all their starters. I still fear Bailey game 4.