Reasons to be optimistic about Bronson

[UCBrownsfan]

I know there are reason to be pessimistic, but some of his results would suggest he just wore out from the mono before the all-star break.

From May 18 - All Star Break: 58 IP 17 HR, 27 K, 7.14 ERA
Rest of the season: 141 IP, 29 HR, 81 K, 4.21 ERA
Against the division: 94.1 IP, 4.21 ERA

The interesting thing (I know this could be considered stat cherry picking, but, combined with the mono, needs to be considered)
From May 18 - All Star Break, his only 2 good games (LAD, Tor) came after 6 days rest.

Not great, by any measure, but respectable in a 5 man rotation.

Obviously this doesn't show anything for sure, but it does suggest, that Arroyo wearing down prior to the All-Star break due to mono, is a legitimate excuse, and the rest of his year would be a decent year pitching above his metrics.

[Moosie52]

It's hard enough to get your strength back after mono if you get lots of rest. I can't imagine maintaining a professional athlete's regular schedule would help any. I expect Bronson to bounce back this season.

[jhu1321]

I had mono when I was a teenager and slept for three straight months. We need him to be healthy and gobble up innings.

[nux fan]

might as well be optomistic about Mike LaCoss

[Rockermann]

He says he's feeling better, stronger than ever, but if the zip is not back on his fastball after an off-season of preparation, he's not sure it's ever coming back, "“If I’m throwing, 85, 86 like I did last year,” he said, “I’ve got nothing else to give it. I gave myself this entire offseason to try to rejuvenate some of that zip. If it’s not there, it’s not going to be there."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/02/19/arroyo-feels-like-the-zip-is-back/

[[deleted]]

The scary thing to me is that a lot of this season is hinging on OP being right - if Arroyo bounces back to being decent, we'll be in really good shape. If he doesn't (or only comes back a little)... we'll be in for a long summer. I'm really hoping Francis sticks around and picks up a fair amount of starts. Arroyo's HR rates when supposedly healthy are still pretty terrifying...

[jhu1321]

He says he's feeling better, stronger than ever, but if the zip is not back on his fastball after an off-season of preparation, he's not sure it's ever coming back, "“If I’m throwing, 85, 86 like I did last year,” he said, “I’ve got nothing else to give it. I gave myself this entire offseason to try to rejuvenate some of that zip. If it’s not there, it’s not going to be there."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/02/19/arroyo-feels-like-the-zip-is-back/

So if he is only throwing 85-86 and he's got "nothing else to give it", maybe he'll let us wiggle out of the financial investment we've made in him......... a man can dream at least. :thumbdown:

[texasdave]

I certainly hope he bounces back in a big way. Reds need him. And Bronson always struck me as straightforward guy. That is appreciated.

[WildcatFan]

The nice thing about Arroyo is he's a control pitcher who had an off year, getting hurt on fastballs down the middle instead of being able to hit the edges. That's an easier problem to fix than a power pitcher who all of a sudden loses 6 mph. Arroyo has a chance to bounce back and become a solid 4/5 if he's able to correct those control issues (which I think he can). I wouldn't be surprised to see his walks go up a tick from working in and out, but his homerun rate drop.

[The Rage]

Bronson is old. He may just be done.

[Fireball]

Bronson may be done, but I have a hard time believing he lost it all in one year. He may not have a 3.5 ERA this year, but I don't think he'll be far above 4 this year. Considering he'll be the 4th starter this year, that's all we really need out of him.

[The Rage]

Bronson may be done, but I have a hard time believing he lost it all in one year. He may not have a 3.5 ERA this year, but I don't think he'll be far above 4 this year. Considering he'll be the 4th starter this year, that's all we really need out of him.

He won't be the 4th starter for long the way he is going. He may not have been as bad as his numbers, but if the natural decline continues, he will be the 5th starter at best by June.

[brad1176]

Bronson's quote seems strange to me. He seemed to have a flippant attitude towards the whole situation. What is he really saying? If his velocity isn't back...will he hang'em up, let us out of his ridiculous deal, take a bullpen role, or will he adamantly stay in the rotation?

This brings another question, how patient will the Reds be? If Bronson is throwing 85 again, getting smoked in ST, what will they do?

[Stray]

Spring training will tell us a lot about him. If he can be in the 89-91 range with his fastball I'll feel pretty good.

My expectations are extremely low, but if he can give us 200 innings at around a 4.50 ERA I think he'll be a valuable piece at the back end of our rotation. If he's up around or over 5.00 then there's problems.

[The DARK]

I'd expect something in the range of about 88 MPH with his strength conditioning. That said, Francis managed a decent ERA with an 85 MPH fastball last year, and Arroyo has some very good and reliable offspeed pitches. If he can turn the fastball into something that isn't likely to be clobbered out of the park, I think we could expect a return to near his usual ERA. If it remains where it was last season, it may be another long ride.

[nux fan]

might as well be optomistic about frank pastore

[Helms1]

Mono is hell on an adult. You don't have to be optimistic for many of the stated reasons, but give the guy a chance to see what he has this spring. May be surprised. The glass could be more than half full.

[faffy42]

I had mono at age 42. I sat on a couch for about 1 month...taking 3 weeks off work. I can't imagine how he was even able to pitch. It takes a long time to recover. Wasn't a good year for him, but wow that he kept his commitment to toe the rubber every 5th day. That's a guy i want on my time. He's a tough sob...and he WILL be better this year cuz he's healthy!

[bounty37h]

might as well be optomistic about frank pastore

LOL, you dont bring much, but at least your consistent.

[nux fan]

I bring as much as Bruce Berenyi

[Jefferson24]

I think the mono is about 90% of the problem last year. Even after he was over it, his body wasn't. The effects of it likely lingered on all season and he never got truly healthy or in optimal baseball shape.

He is coming into this spring training in much better shape. I expect better than last year. If his finds his way to 15-16 wins this could be a pretty good season for the Reds.

[10xWSChamps]

I looked up his stats and was shocked to see that he turns 35 tomorrow (Feb 24th)!!! Holy crap I thought the guy was like 28. I guessed I missed him being in the AL...

[tedies]

I looked up his stats and was shocked to see that he turns 35 tomorrow (Feb 24th)!!! Holy crap I thought the guy was like 28. I guessed I missed him being in the AL...

Hmm you have a bad sense of people's age... Don't you remember him with his corn rows with the Red Sox?? I believe he was on the '04 World Series team

[[deleted]]

He is coming into this spring training in much better shape. I expect better than last year. If his finds his way to 15-16 wins this could be a pretty good season for the Reds.

Yes, and the Reds win 120 games and sweep the playoffs.

Most analysts project Latos and Cueto as being fringe 15 game winners. Expecting that from Arroyo is bordering on asinine.

[10xWSChamps]

Hmm you have a bad sense of people's age... Don't you remember him with his corn rows with the Red Sox?? I believe he was on the '04 World Series team

He looks younger then 35 to me. But then again, he's older then I am and for me it's always been harder to tell the age of people older then me. If I had to bet on it I probably would have said 30.

I don't remember him during the 04 World Series, looked up his postseason stats for that year and he did indeed pitch two innings during the Series.

[lidspinner]

here is why you should optimistic about Bronson:

in years past he was in the rotation regardless of what he did, hell he had mono and was still in our rotation....this year he has something to prove, true he still has almost a promised spot in the starting 5 but if he pulls another 2011 and the other 5 prove they can start on every 5th day and be better, then Bronson will be looking at quick retirement.....if the Reds can prove they belong in the playoffs this year and the rest of the starting rotation proves worthy,I doubt walt heads into 2013 with an iffy Bronson chucking 83mph fastballs.....2013 is our World Series year and Walt knows this, no way in hades does he allow Bronson to pitch in 13 if he cant mow em down in 12, as long as the other 5 prove they can handle the rotation duties....Bronson is on his last life and 2012 will be the telling sign if he helps take this team to the title or not.....

[nux fan]

arroyo = garbage read the stats

[brm7675]

;2538934']Yes, and the Reds win 120 games and sweep the playoffs.

Most analysts project Latos and Cueto as being fringe 15 game winners. Expecting that from Arroyo is bordering on asinine.

Well the experts are never wrong and Bronson has never been near 15 wins before...:laugh:

[texasdave]

Bronson could get to 15 wins because he goes a lot of innings and is probably involved in a lot more decisions because of it. That seems logical but may not be.

[nux fan]

7 wins 15 losses more likely 50 homers surrendered