2012 NL Central Predictions

[DGullett35]

I borrowed this from the ORG. I want to see what your guys' predictions are.

Mine:
Reds-89 wins
Brewers-87
Cards-86
Pirates-80
Cubs-77
Stros-65

Its going to be a long season down to the wire. Chapman is going to give us the second half boost we need and the Redlegs will prevail(crossing my fingers):thumbup:

[drowg14]

Reds ~88-89 wins
Brewers ~84 wins
Pirates ~81 wins
Cards ~79 wins
Cubs ~75
Astros ~65

[texasdave]

Reds 94 wins
Cards 91 wins
Brewers 84 wins
Cubs 75 wins
Pirates 73 wins
Astros 59 wins


MLB.com's (Richard Justice's) takes a whack at predicting the NL Central order of finish. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120326&content_id=27640486&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Magdal]

Reds ~88-89 wins
Brewers ~84 wins
Pirates ~81 wins
Cards ~79 wins
Cubs ~75
Astros ~65Are you serious? Cards 4th? All the writers and pundits have them 3rd best in the NL, and you have them 4th best in the CENTRAL?

You sir, are an optomist!:beerme:

[will5979]

Reds will win around 85, NO PLAYOFFS. Still WAY too many holes in this team that the stupid owners won't fix.

[jhu1321]

Reds will win around 85, NO PLAYOFFS. Still WAY too many holes in this team that the stupid owners won't fix.


Such as...... ?

[drowg14]

Are you serious? Cards 4th? All the writers and pundits have them 3rd best in the NL, and you have them 4th best in the CENTRAL?

You sir, are an optomist!:beerme:

I kind of feel like everything that can go wrong for them will. If they stay healthy then yea, they are probably a top 3 NL team. But with Carpenter already hurt, and them already relying heavily on aging stars such as Berkman, Beltran and Furcal they don't have much room for error. Plus Wainwright, while I feel like he will be healthy, won't be at his Cy Young level for probably the first half of the yaer.

And it's hard to replace TLR, Duncan and Pujols.

[[deleted]]

St. Louis: 91 - 71
Cincinnati: 88 - 74
Milwaukee: 87 - 75
Pittsburgh: 75 - 87
Chicago: 73 - 89
Houston: 60 - 102

[Magdal]

I kind of feel like everything that can go wrong for them will. If they stay healthy then yea, they are probably a top 3 NL team. But with Carpenter already hurt, and them already relying heavily on aging stars such as Berkman, Beltran and Furcal they don't have much room for error. Plus Wainwright, while I feel like he will be healthy, won't be at his Cy Young level for probably the first half of the yaer.

And it's hard to replace TLR, Duncan and Pujols.Incorrect. Beltran is just as good. Compare their last years numbers. La Manager and his little buddy are WAAAAAYYYY overated!

It's true that B,B and F are aging, but they are not over the hill YET. Furcal can't hit anymore, but that's not why they signed him.

Carpenter was the 3rd best starter last year behind Lohse and Garcia. He would have been the 4th this year with the return of AW. He won't be missed.

As previously stated, being the best on paper means next to nothing. Nobody knows what players will suck and which ones will step up. For all anyone knows the Cubs may win the Central.

[Cardinal_Fan]

Seems a little OPTIMISTIC magdal. I too think the Cardinals will win it, but I'm not an unbiased source...

We'll see how it goes, losting TLR AP and Duncan matters. We'll see just how much in a few weeks!

[brm7675]

Reds will win around 85, NO PLAYOFFS. Still WAY too many holes in this team that the stupid owners won't fix.

Okay what holes and exactly how would YOU have fixed them?

[brm7675]

Incorrect. Beltran is just as good. Compare their last years numbers. La Manager and his little buddy are WAAAAAYYYY overated!

It's true that B,B and F are aging, but they are not over the hill YET. Furcal can't hit anymore, but that's not why they signed him.

Carpenter was the 3rd best starter last year behind Lohse and Garcia. He would have been the 4th this year with the return of AW. He won't be missed.

As previously stated, being the best on paper means next to nothing. Nobody knows what players will suck and which ones will step up. For all anyone knows the Cubs may win the Central.

Beltran is as good as whom? Please don't tell me as good as Albert because I may die of laughing. Losing Carpenter is HUGE, you have a HUGE ? in Wainwright and the bottom portion of that rotation. As for Tony and Dave...your right way overrated...lets see how your never managed before "replacement" and his staff handle the presure that is St. Louis baseball...

[brm7675]

Reds 90+ wins
Pirates 85 wins
Cards 80 wins
Brewers 78 wins
Cubs/Astros --- who cares..

[redsfanmia]

Cardinals 90-72
Brewers 88-74
Pirates 83-79
Reds 76-86
Cubs 74-88
Astros 66-96

Dusty is the first manager fired and the Reds fire sale inclued Phillips, Votto and Marshall.

[brm7675]

Cardinals 90-72
Brewers 88-74
Pirates 83-79
Reds 76-86
Cubs 74-88
Astros 66-96

Dusty is the first manager fired and the Reds fire sale inclued Phillips, Votto and Marshall.

No chance..dusty might go but no fire sale...

[will5979]

Okay what holes and exactly how would YOU have fixed them?

1. NO true leadoff hitter, BP is better in the 2 hole.

2. No true cleanup hitter.

3. We still have Dusty Baker.

What would I have done? Fired Dusty and replaced him with Bobby V or Davey Johnson, then I would have found a legit leadoff and cleanup hitter either through FA or via trades.

[Magdal]

Beltran is as good as whom? Please don't tell me as good as Albert because I may die of laughing. Losing Carpenter is HUGE, you have a HUGE ? in Wainwright and the bottom portion of that rotation. As for Tony and Dave...your right way overrated...lets see how your never managed before "replacement" and his staff handle the presure that is St. Louis baseball...What do you look for, statwise in a slugger? Slugging% of course. Last year Beltran's was better! (for a lot less $) As a matter of fact, Pujols was 4th in Slug% on his own team last year. Now go on and laugh at that.

[brm7675]

1. NO true leadoff hitter, BP is better in the 2 hole.

2. No true cleanup hitter.

3. We still have Dusty Baker.

What would I have done? Fired Dusty and replaced him with Bobby V or Davey Johnson, then I would have found a legit leadoff and cleanup hitter either through FA or via trades.

1. Whom do you consider a true leadoff hitter and whom out there could the reds have gotten?

2. We have a cleanup hitter in Bruce if he puts it all together

3. They won the division with him as manager so it is possible.

[brm7675]

What do you look for, statwise in a slugger? Slugging% of course. Last year Beltran's was better! (for a lot less $) As a matter of fact, Pujols was 4th in Slug% on his own team last year. Now go on and laugh at that.

I look at all around players ability and what he brings to the team. If Beltran is so "great" then why wasn't he offerend something near what Albert got by ML teams? Beltran is a good player, but no where in the league of Albert.

[Magdal]

I look at all around players ability and what he brings to the team. If Beltran is so "great" then why wasn't he offerend something near what Albert got by ML teams? Beltran is a good player, but no where in the league of Albert.Because Beltran is a question mark following his injury problems, and he is getting good money for what he brings...Albert on the other hand is robbing the Angels.

Once again someone talks about Pujols like he is still great. Why don't you mention Bonds or McGwire or Chipper Jones too? They WERE great once.

[brm7675]

Because Beltran is a question mark following his injury problems, and he is getting good money for what he brings...Albert on the other hand is robbing the Angels.

Once again someone talks about Pujols like he is still great. Why don't you mention Bonds or McGwire or Chipper Jones too? They WERE great once.

Right now and over say the next 3-4 years Albert is still in the top 10 of best in the game, just beacuse the Angles were stupid to give him a 10 year deal isn't his fault. As for Beltran, he isn't even in the top 50 right now.

[texasdave]

How SI sees the season playing out:

http://www.cnnsi.com/2012/baseball/mlb/03/28/si.mlb.2012.preview/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a0

[drowg14]

Because Beltran is a question mark following his injury problems, and he is getting good money for what he brings...Albert on the other hand is robbing the Angels.

Once again someone talks about Pujols like he is still great. Why don't you mention Bonds or McGwire or Chipper Jones too? They WERE great once.

Bonds and McGwire are retired. Jones played 126 last year and 95 the year before, at numbers far below is hall of fame caliber prime. Pujols, while he is no longer the best player in the league, had 37 homers with a wOBA of .385 last year.

[redsfanmia]

No chance..dusty might go but no fire sale...

Why no firesale? If the team is 15 games out at the trade deadline they would be stupid not to trade Phillips atleast and why not trade Votto to give the rebuilding process a jumpstart. I bought into this team being good for a while but reality is setting in and this team does not have the offense to win big and the pitching is iffy at best. End of the day this is a bad to average team.

[brm7675]

Why no firesale? If the team is 15 games out at the trade deadline they would be stupid not to trade Phillips atleast and why not trade Votto to give the rebuilding process a jumpstart. I bought into this team being good for a while but reality is setting in and this team does not have the offense to win big and the pitching is iffy at best. End of the day this is a bad to average team.

Simple, because Phillips will have a new deal by then and they are not trading Votto, they will resign him, trust me, no way Bob allows either of them to go.

Exactly how does this offense not have the ability to score runs? They have been one of the top offenses in baseball the past fewyears. Pitching wise we have two of the top arms in our SP rotation and a maybe a 3rd in Leake and we don't know what we have in Chapman. If you go position by position adn compare to both Cards and Brewers we have a better roster....

[drowg14]

Simple, because Phillips will have a new deal by then and they are not trading Votto, they will resign him, trust me, no way Bob allows either of them to go.

Exactly how does this offense not have the ability to score runs? They have been one of the top offenses in baseball the past fewyears. Pitching wise we have two of the top arms in our SP rotation and a maybe a 3rd in Leake and we don't know what we have in Chapman. If you go position by position adn compare to both Cards and Brewers we have a better roster....

You think Cincy has the money for both Votto and BP to sign new deals?

[redsfanmia]

Simple, because Phillips will have a new deal by then and they are not trading Votto, they will resign him, trust me, no way Bob allows either of them to go.

Exactly how does this offense not have the ability to score runs? They have been one of the top offenses in baseball the past fewyears. Pitching wise we have two of the top arms in our SP rotation and a maybe a 3rd in Leake and we don't know what we have in Chapman. If you go position by position adn compare to both Cards and Brewers we have a better roster....

No way they small market Reds sign both Votto and Phillips, zero chance. The offense is the most inconsistant in the league, ranking second in the NL in offense is an example of the stats not telling the true story. The Reds scored 2 or fewer runs 40+ times last season and they strike out at an alarming rate.

[brm7675]

You think Cincy has the money for both Votto and BP to sign new deals?

Yep. No question that Bob has the monies and will get both signed unless some team out there offers Votto insane money like the Angles did, but I don't think Bob will even let Votto get on the market..

[brm7675]

No way they small market Reds sign both Votto and Phillips, zero chance. The offense is the most inconsistant in the league, ranking second in the NL in offense is an example of the stats not telling the true story. The Reds scored 2 or fewer runs 40+ times last season and they strike out at an alarming rate.

Bob spent 30 million on a unknown kid, he spent how much on a over the hill third basemen and then spent how much on the downside of his career pitcher in Bronson? This idea the Reds can't afford both is laughable, come on people, MLB is raking in the monies, the Reds can afford both.

[brm7675]

No way they small market Reds sign both Votto and Phillips, zero chance. The offense is the most inconsistant in the league, ranking second in the NL in offense is an example of the stats not telling the true story. The Reds scored 2 or fewer runs 40+ times last season and they strike out at an alarming rate.

So what..strike outs are overated, an out is an out. As for inconsistant, you say 40 times 2 or fewer runs, that means 121 games we scored more then 2 runs....If our team is so bad how did we win the division in 2010? How did we win 75+ games last year? Both the Cards and Brewers are not the level of teams they were last year...

[redsfanmia]

So what..strike outs are overated, an out is an out. As for inconsistant, you say 40 times 2 or fewer runs, that means 121 games we scored more then 2 runs....If our team is so bad how did we win the division in 2010? How did we win 75+ games last year? Both the Cards and Brewers are not the level of teams they were last year...

75 wins is not very good and the offense only scores when they hit the ball out of the park.

[brm7675]

75 wins is not very good and the offense only scores when they hit the ball out of the park.

Given the injuries to key vets it is...

[10xWSChamps]

If our team is so bad how did we win the division in 2010? How did we win 75+ games last year? Both the Cards and Brewers are not the level of teams they were last year...


Even if the Brewers and Cardinals are not the teams they were last year as you suggest, how are you deciding that the Reds have gained sixteen wins on the Brewers and twelve wins on the Cardinals? I don't see how the Reds got so much better then either of those teams. Prince Fielder is not worth 16 wins. Albert Pujols is not worth 12 wins.

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Will Albert Pujols have a higher WAR then Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright?

My take: No friggen way. These are the big additions and big subtraction of the off season for us, like it or not we've gained net WAR.

2. If you believe that #1 is an impossibility as I do, are you suggesting that LaRussa is worth 11 wins?

My take: Opinions on TLR are very divided. Magdal here hates him with a passion but I like TLR a lot and think he will be missed. However I don't think even the greatest manager in the game is worth more then a handful of wins. Good teams are good because of their players. It's also not like the inmates are running the aslyum, I think the Caridnals hired a great replacement. It remains to be seen if he's effective or not, but it's not like we're going into 2012 without a manager!

3. Is 3/4 Ryan Theriot 1/4 Rafeal Furcal better then a full season of Rafeal Furcal?

My take: This is another net WAR gain from 2011. Furcal isn't the player he was a few years ago, but he's still a much better player then Ryan Theriot.

4. Is Jason Motte going to be more effective in the first half of 2012 then Ryan Franklin (who blew the opening day save last year and ten other before being cut)

My take: Ryan Franklin was beyond terrible last season. Our bullpen will be much more effective without him blowing every other save for the first two months. Overall the bullpen is strengthened with the late season additions we got last year too, it's actually a nice bullpen whose stats were skewed last year because of an awful Ryan Franklin If you don't believe me about Franklin last year, look at his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frankry01.shtml

The guy pitched 28 innings and had a 8.46 ERA! As our closer!

Finally, you seem to suggest that the Reds can be good in 2012 because (among other reasons!) they won the division in 2010. Yet in your eyes the Cardinals will be below .500 despite winning the World freaking Series in 2011! Your logic is faulty my friend.

[10xWSChamps]

Also, I hope no one takes that post to mean that I think the Reds will be bad or the Cardinals will run away with the division.

I think it's going to be a race between the Reds and Cardinals by the end of the year. I think the Brewers have a chance to be there, but I don't see it. They were such a middle-heavy lineup. They had two MVP type players smack in the middle of their prime last year and they lost one. They didn't replace that bat and there isn't any bat in that lineup that scares you at all besides Braun now. The Cardinals did lose Pujols, but our lineup is so much deeper then the Brewers. Granted, a couple guys are injury prone and we lost Albert, but with Holliday, Berkman, Beltran and Freese there is still serious power and potential there. And guys like Molina, Furcal, Jon Jay and Alan Craig are quality batters.

The Brewers only really have one bat with serious power/potential in Braun and a few other quality hitters around him. They will have to get some real production from their rotation (certainly a possibility and why I do not totally rule them out) to win the division or wild card.

The Cardinals have a lot of great players in the lineup and the rotation, but there is also a lot of injury concerns. The Reds have less proven players, but also have less injury concerns and more young players that could develop and give them a real boost in performance (and the standings) from 2011. It should be a battle of health for the Cardinals and a "battle" of development for the Reds. The Reds have to have guys start to produce and become consistent. The Cardinals have the guys, they just need them to stay healthy. The Brewers will need players to stay healthy, develop and have everyone produce to their full potential to win the division.

I see the Reds and Cardinals having much more leeway with thier "problems" then anyone else in the division. Overall I have the Cardinals favored with the Reds in a close second place. There is a lot of ways this division could play out though

[10xWSChamps]

Also, I hope no one takes that post to mean that I think the Reds will be bad or the Cardinals will run away with the division.

I think it's going to be a race between the Reds and Cardinals by the end of the year. I think the Brewers have a chance to be there, but I don't see it. They were such a middle-heavy lineup. They had two MVP type players smack in the middle of their prime last year and they lost one. They didn't replace that bat and there isn't any bat in that lineup that scares you at all besides Braun now. The Cardinals did lose Pujols, but our lineup is so much deeper then the Brewers. Granted, a couple guys are injury prone and we lost Albert, but with Holliday, Berkman, Beltran and Freese there is still serious power and potential there. And guys like Molina, Furcal, Jon Jay and Alan Craig are quality batters.

The Brewers only really have one bat with serious power/potential in Braun and a few other quality hitters around him. They will have to get some real production from their rotation (certainly a possibility and why I do not totally rule them out) to win the division or wild card.

The Cardinals have a lot of great players in the lineup and the rotation, but there is also a lot of injury concerns. The Reds have less proven players, but also have less injury concerns and more young players that could develop and give them a real boost in performance (and the standings) from 2011. It should be a battle of health for the Cardinals and a "battle" of development for the Reds. The Reds have to have guys start to produce and become consistent. The Cardinals have the proven guys, they just need them to stay healthy. The Brewers will need players to stay healthy, develop and have everyone produce to their full potential to win the division.

I see the Reds and Cardinals having much more leeway with thier "problems" then anyone else in the division. Overall I have the Cardinals favored with the Reds in a close second place. There is a lot of ways this division could play out though. I think we end up with 90-93 wins.

[will5979]

I was very excited over the offseason, now I have the realization that the Reds are probably going to finish 3rd.

I watched a Spring Training game the other day where ALL the starters were playing including Cueto, they looked horrible.

This team will be lucky to win 82. I have to face a terrible reality, the West Virginia Mountaineer Football program is my only favorite sports team that is worth a damn and actually cares about success and winning. Its sad that its not even opening day yet and I'm already looking forward to football season.

Until the Reds get some owners with money that they are willing to spend, we are going to SUCK.

[brm7675]

Even if the Brewers and Cardinals are not the teams they were last year as you suggest, how are you deciding that the Reds have gained sixteen wins on the Brewers and twelve wins on the Cardinals? I don't see how the Reds got so much better then either of those teams. Prince Fielder is not worth 16 wins. Albert Pujols is not worth 12 wins.

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Will Albert Pujols have a higher WAR then Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright?

Since I don't buy into that "WAR" stuff I don't know, I do know that both Beltran and Wainwright have HUGE questions about their health in this upcoming season while Albert doesn't

My take: No friggen way. These are the big additions and big subtraction of the off season for us, like it or not we've gained net WAR.

2. If you believe that #1 is an impossibility as I do, are you suggesting that LaRussa is worth 11 wins?

I think the combination of LaRussa and Duncan are without question.

My take: Opinions on TLR are very divided. Magdal here hates him with a passion but I like TLR a lot and think he will be missed. However I don't think even the greatest manager in the game is worth more then a handful of wins. Good teams are good because of their players. It's also not like the inmates are running the aslyum, I think the Caridnals hired a great replacement. It remains to be seen if he's effective or not, but it's not like we're going into 2012 without a manager!

3. Is 3/4 Ryan Theriot 1/4 Rafeal Furcal better then a full season of Rafeal Furcal?

My take: This is another net WAR gain from 2011. Furcal isn't the player he was a few years ago, but he's still a much better player then Ryan Theriot.

4. Is Jason Motte going to be more effective in the first half of 2012 then Ryan Franklin (who blew the opening day save last year and ten other before being cut)

My take: Ryan Franklin was beyond terrible last season. Our bullpen will be much more effective without him blowing every other save for the first two months. Overall the bullpen is strengthened with the late season additions we got last year too, it's actually a nice bullpen whose stats were skewed last year because of an awful Ryan Franklin If you don't believe me about Franklin last year, look at his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frankry01.shtml

The guy pitched 28 innings and had a 8.46 ERA! As our closer!

Finally, you seem to suggest that the Reds can be good in 2012 because (among other reasons!) they won the division in 2010. Yet in your eyes the Cardinals will be below .500 despite winning the World freaking Series in 2011! Your logic is faulty my friend.


No I think the Reds will be better because our pitching is better, Votto will only continue to produce, Bruce will improve and if Rolen stays healthy will put up nice numbers. Add into the mix Mat Latos, Sean Marshall and Chapman all having possible strong years and I think right now the Reds are better then the Cards. Lets remember the Cards were not a very good overall team last year. They got "hot" at the right time and had some of the biggest amount of LUCK a team could get just to get into the playoffs last year...

[brm7675]

I was very excited over the offseason, now I have the realization that the Reds are probably going to finish 3rd.

I watched a Spring Training game the other day where ALL the starters were playing including Cueto, they looked horrible.

This team will be lucky to win 82. I have to face a terrible reality, the West Virginia Mountaineer Football program is my only favorite sports team that is worth a damn and actually cares about success and winning. Its sad that its not even opening day yet and I'm already looking forward to football season.

Until the Reds get some owners with money that they are willing to spend, we are going to SUCK.


You are basing your view off of ST and even more just 1 game you watched? By chance did you watch any of the Reds games in ST in 2010? ST performance and numbers mean NOTHING, there are players who have great ST and can't do squat during the season and players who struggle during ST and dominate during the season. How many Cards/Brewers ST games have you watched?

[Who Dey Time]

As of right now I see it lining up this way.....

1. Milwaukee
2. Cincinnati
3. St. Louis
4. Pittsburgh
5. Chicago
6. Houston

Hope I'm wrong. For me, though, there are too many questions with spots 3-5 of the rotation to feel overly confident about them. Can they be very good? No doubt but there is also evidence that suggests they can also be a mess. Add that to the new bullpen problems and there is cause for concern.

[brm7675]

Finally, you seem to suggest that the Reds can be good in 2012 because (among other reasons!) they won the division in 2010. Yet in your eyes the Cardinals will be below .500 despite winning the World freaking Series in 2011! Your logic is faulty my friend.


No I believe the Cards will not due as well this year because of "key" losses in "key" personal, aging player who won't produce like he did last year, injury to key pitcher in rotation and a very unsettled bullpen. While the Reds lost no one of real significance in the offseason and in fact added a Stud of starting pitcher and bullpen arm.

[brm7675]

As of right now I see it lining up this way.....

1. Milwaukee
2. Cincinnati
3. St. Louis
4. Pittsburgh
5. Chicago
6. Houston

Hope I'm wrong. For me, though, there are too many questions with spots 3-5 of the rotation to feel overly confident about them. Can they be very good? No doubt but there is also evidence that suggests they can also be a mess. Add that to the new bullpen problems and there is cause for concern.

What do you see in Brewer land that impresses you that much? I mean with them this year why would anyone even pitch to Braun, he should be walked a ton this year as he has no one to protect him at all...

[Who Dey Time]

What do you see in Brewer land that impresses you that much? I mean with them this year why would anyone even pitch to Braun, he should be walked a ton this year as he has no one to protect him at all...

They have the best starting rotation, 1 thru 5, in the division IMO. Their lineup will obviously be hurt by Fielder's departure but they are still better than most with Weeks, Braun, Aramis Ramirez, etc.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and I do think the Reds are certainly capable of winning the Central and beyond. But, for now, you have to like what Milwaukee appears capable of doing.

[brm7675]

They have the best starting rotation, 1 thru 5, in the division IMO. Their lineup will obviously be hurt by Fielder's departure but they are still better than most with Weeks, Braun, Aramis Ramirez, etc.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and I do think the Reds are certainly capable of winning the Central and beyond. But, for now, you have to like what Milwaukee appears capable of doing.

Who are their starting 5 and how much better do you see them over the Reds? As for hitting Braun "might" be good, lets see I mean after getting off on douping lets see. Ramirez is average at best and that is on a good day. Weeks can be scary but seems to spend way to much time on the DL

[Who Dey Time]

Who are their starting 5 and how much better do you see them over the Reds? As for hitting Braun "might" be good, lets see I mean after getting off on douping lets see. Ramirez is average at best and that is on a good day. Weeks can be scary but seems to spend way to much time on the DL

Yovani Gallardo (RHP); Zack Greinke (RHP); Shaun Marcum (RHP); Randy Wolf (LHP); Chris Narveson (LHP)

IMO.....

Cueto > Gallardo
Latos = Grienke (and that is being kind to Mat)
Arroyo < Marcum
Leake = Wolf
#5?????? = Narveson

So its pretty equal in terms of what the talent is. But you have to give the edge to the Brewers because they have the experience and are definitely the more consistent group.

And please don't say that Braun "may" be good. I can respect you trying to debate this point but that comment won't get you anywhere. Braun is a beast and we all know that.

[Kingspoint]

I don't care what the other clubs do.


Cincinnati REDS......90 Wins (would have been 94 with Madsen).

While there's a lot to be hopeful about, there's still too many holes for this team to do any better than 3 games over .500 per month (6 months times 3 games equals 18 games over .500, or 90-72).

The holes...

#1 Scott Rolen. At a position of power, I can't see how he ends up OPS'ing over .770, where 94-Win teams (where they'd be if they could fill a couple of these holes) will have their 3rd-Basemen OPS'ing .850+.

#2 Bronson Arroyo. He has to be the Absolute Worst Starting Pitcher in the National League. He was last year, and much of the year before, so there's no reason to believe a miracle will happen and he'll change. Only because he makes $7Million+ does he get to receive the ball every 5th day. He's a momentum killer. Any thoughts of putting streaks together this year (clubs that win 94 games have numerous winning streaks throughout a season, or times where they win 15 out of 18) are shot down with Bronson Arroyo getting the ball as much as he does. He doesn't even belong in the Majors anymore, yet alone allowed to be a starting pitcher. He gets pounded on a regular basis.

3. Dusty Baker. He'll find more ways to screw things up than one can imagine. Playing Ludwick over Heisey, Rolen over someone of equal or better talent who's on the rise. Playing other veterans too much. Then there's his pitching choices and in-game management. While he's admittedly improved tremendously on his treatment of young arms and all arms, he's still one who has the tendency to throw a guy out there too much because he doesn't have faith in others with the end result that he burns out that player for future weeks/months.

4. Starting Pitching Depth. It's just not there. Under normal circumstances, two or more of our Starting Pitchers should be replaced either through ineffectiveness or DL-stints/missing starts. I don't see their replacements in the Minor Leagues, or in our long relief where someone can come in and make a spot start and give the team a chance to win.

5. Ryan Ludwick. The guy is a joke. He has no business starting in the Majors on any team, yet alone a team that has as much talent as the REDS have who are better than this guy. Chris Heisey should be starting every day, not platooning. There are plenty of other options better than Ludwick. But, he's going to get 400+ plate appearances, 300 too many.


The hopes and positives.

1. Zach Cozart. We finally have a Shortstop who can hit AND field. We've rarely had one since Larkin who could do either, except for Janish, who at least could field. Zach Cozart is the most important player after Votto, Latos, Cueto, and Bruce....in that order. Only Baker could screw this up (as he's done most of his time as the REDS' Manager when it comes to giving playing time at Shortstop). Cozart should receiver 600 plate appearances, but he'll probably only get 400 as Baker likes to play his buddies, his vets.

2. Bruce. He could easily put it all together this year and OPS over .900. He does that and this lineup gets scary for opponents, Ludwick or no Ludwick.

3. Hanigan. He'll bounce back to his high OBP and Power numbers he's always had before last season.

4. Leake. Every year he'll get craftier and craftier, while improving on his pitches. Like Arroyo used to be before Arroyo completely lost his physical abilities, Leake just wins. Pencil in 15 wins for Leake. It's a given every year.

5. Bill Bray. The REDS dominated that Austin Kearns trade because of Bill Bray alone. Bray will shut down whoever he faces....right-handers or left-handers, and hand the ball over to the next reliever giving the REDS an opportunity to rally if they're behind, or crushing the hopes of other teams trying to rally.

6. Walt Jockety. He always makes the right moves. What a great G.M.! Whatever this team needs in July, Walt will go get it, in order to push this team to the next level. His acquisitions this Winter should have earned him Executive-of-the-Year, but an absent Madsen will take that away from him. Getting Sean Marshall for Travis Wood was genius. Wood had a 17.48 ERA this Spring and was sent to the Minors.

7. REDS' fans. With a warmer than normal Spring, the seats should fill up more than they usually do, and with expectations high, they may set a new attendance record, making their record at home approach that of the Big Red Machine Days when they would regularly post .630+ home records. They have a team built for the Great American Ballpark (except Arroyo), and should be able to take advantage of that. Pitchers are going to hate coming here and it's going to get into their heads.

8. Rick Sweet. He'll continue to improve the players he gets and make them Major League ready as much as can be expected from them.

9. Brandon Phillips. Mr. Consistency. If he could get into a set position in the lineup, he might be able to relax a bit and put up career numbers this season.

10. Joey Votto. This is a hope list, so Votto and Phillips are at the end because no hope is needed. We know what we're getting with them. They are the glue that holds this club together.

[Cardinal_Fan]

10X have you watched the Blues this season? Coaching matters alot. Hopefully, Matheny caries on the tradition.

[brm7675]

Yovani Gallardo (RHP); Zack Greinke (RHP); Shaun Marcum (RHP); Randy Wolf (LHP); Chris Narveson (LHP)

IMO.....

Cueto > Gallardo
Latos = Grienke (and that is being kind to Mat)
Arroyo < Marcum
Leake = Wolf
#5?????? = Narveson

So its pretty equal in terms of what the talent is. But you have to give the edge to the Brewers because they have the experience and are definitely the more consistent group.

And please don't say that Braun "may" be good. I can respect you trying to debate this point but that comment won't get you anywhere. Braun is a beast and we all know that.


With Prince and juice you are right he was a beast, lets see what happens juiceless and Princeless...

[[deleted]]

Even without Prince, I still feel like people are writing Milwaukee off a bit too much. Their rotation simply stomps ours, and Who Dey was VERY kind with the comparisons. He has Cueto better than Gallardo, but over the last three years here's what they've averaged:

Cueto: 171 IP, 6.54 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 3.45 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 2.3 WAR

Gallardo: 192 IP, 9.54 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.69 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.5 WAR

So Gallardo's been better in almost every way. Cueto has an edge in the HR rate, but that's mostly due to a VERY unsustainable 5.8% posted last year (Gallardo himself had a fluke season: he posted a 7.1% in 2010 that jumped back to 12.7 last year, most closer to his career average). Much has already been said about Cueto's very low BABIP and FIP from 2011, so regression this season is definitely expected. Putting Latos equal with Greinke is quite a stretch as well.

The Reds finished 17 games back of Milwaukee last season. You have to wonder: is replacing Prince with Aramis + the additions we've made really going to shoot us almost twenty games ahead in the standings? Yeah, Braun will have less protection, but that's still a VERY tall order. I don't know the answer, but I do think more people should pay attention to the Brewers heading into the season.

[brm7675]

;2551274']Even without Prince, I still feel like people are writing Milwaukee off a bit too much. Their rotation simply stomps ours, and Who Dey was VERY kind with the comparisons. He has Cueto better than Gallardo, but over the last three years here's what they've averaged:

Cueto: 171 IP, 6.54 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 3.45 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 2.3 WAR

Gallardo: 192 IP, 9.54 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.69 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.5 WAR

So Gallardo's been better in almost every way. Cueto has an edge in the HR rate, but that's mostly due to a VERY unsustainable 5.8% posted last year (Gallardo himself had a fluke season: he posted a 7.1% in 2010 that jumped back to 12.7 last year, most closer to his career average). Much has already been said about Cueto's very low BABIP and FIP from 2011, so regression this season is definitely expected. Putting Latos equal with Greinke is quite a stretch as well.

The Reds finished 17 games back of Milwaukee last season. You have to wonder: is replacing Prince with Aramis + the additions we've made really going to shoot us almost twenty games ahead in the standings? Yeah, Braun will have less protection, but that's still a VERY tall order. I don't know the answer, but I do think more people should pay attention to the Brewers heading into the season.

Braun has no protection and no juice is huge...

[texasdave]

;2551274']Even without Prince, I still feel like people are writing Milwaukee off a bit too much. Their rotation simply stomps ours, and Who Dey was VERY kind with the comparisons. He has Cueto better than Gallardo, but over the last three years here's what they've averaged:

Cueto: 171 IP, 6.54 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 3.45 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 2.3 WAR

Gallardo: 192 IP, 9.54 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.69 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.5 WAR

So Gallardo's been better in almost every way. Cueto has an edge in the HR rate, but that's mostly due to a VERY unsustainable 5.8% posted last year (Gallardo himself had a fluke season: he posted a 7.1% in 2010 that jumped back to 12.7 last year, most closer to his career average). Much has already been said about Cueto's very low BABIP and FIP from 2011, so regression this season is definitely expected. Putting Latos equal with Greinke is quite a stretch as well.

The Reds finished 17 games back of Milwaukee last season. You have to wonder: is replacing Prince with Aramis + the additions we've made really going to shoot us almost twenty games ahead in the standings? Yeah, Braun will have less protection, but that's still a VERY tall order. I don't know the answer, but I do think more people should pay attention to the Brewers heading into the season.

[texasdave]

I think a lot of things went the Brewers way in 2011 (90 wins per Pythag) and a lot of things went against the Reds (83 wins per Pythag). In short, I really don't see a 17-win gap between the two teams. It should be a three-team race in 2012. Of course, admittedly, I am slanted towards the Reds. Would it shock me to see the Reds finish behind the Brewers? No. But I am not expecting it.

[[deleted]]

I do think the Brewers played over their heads a bit last season (there's no way they keep being that invincible at Miller Park), but I'm really big on quality starting pitching being the key to success, and I'm not convinced Cincinnati's rotation is better than Milwaukee's at this point.

*Not to sell us too short or anything; I wouldn't be surprised at all if we won the division or took a Wild Card. I just don't think it's going to be as easy as a lot of the predictions here are hoping it will be.

[OGB]

Even if the Brewers and Cardinals are not the teams they were last year as you suggest, how are you deciding that the Reds have gained sixteen wins on the Brewers and twelve wins on the Cardinals? I don't see how the Reds got so much better then either of those teams. Prince Fielder is not worth 16 wins. Albert Pujols is not worth 12 wins.

I have a few questions for ya:

1. Will Albert Pujols have a higher WAR then Carlos Beltran and Adam Wainwright?

My take: No friggen way. These are the big additions and big subtraction of the off season for us, like it or not we've gained net WAR.

2. If you believe that #1 is an impossibility as I do, are you suggesting that LaRussa is worth 11 wins?

My take: Opinions on TLR are very divided. Magdal here hates him with a passion but I like TLR a lot and think he will be missed. However I don't think even the greatest manager in the game is worth more then a handful of wins. Good teams are good because of their players. It's also not like the inmates are running the aslyum, I think the Caridnals hired a great replacement. It remains to be seen if he's effective or not, but it's not like we're going into 2012 without a manager!

3. Is 3/4 Ryan Theriot 1/4 Rafeal Furcal better then a full season of Rafeal Furcal?

My take: This is another net WAR gain from 2011. Furcal isn't the player he was a few years ago, but he's still a much better player then Ryan Theriot.

4. Is Jason Motte going to be more effective in the first half of 2012 then Ryan Franklin (who blew the opening day save last year and ten other before being cut)

My take: Ryan Franklin was beyond terrible last season. Our bullpen will be much more effective without him blowing every other save for the first two months. Overall the bullpen is strengthened with the late season additions we got last year too, it's actually a nice bullpen whose stats were skewed last year because of an awful Ryan Franklin If you don't believe me about Franklin last year, look at his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frankry01.shtml

The guy pitched 28 innings and had a 8.46 ERA! As our closer!

Finally, you seem to suggest that the Reds can be good in 2012 because (among other reasons!) they won the division in 2010. Yet in your eyes the Cardinals will be below .500 despite winning the World freaking Series in 2011! Your logic is faulty my friend.

Ha, WAR is stupid.

[WDE]

Reds will win around 85, NO PLAYOFFS. Still WAY too many holes in this team that the stupid owners won't fix.

Wonder how Will feels about that now...