Joey Votto and the MVP race

[New York Red]

With the exception of one obvious category (RBI), Joey has to be considered the current front-runner for the NL MVP award. He sits #1 in the entire league now in OBP, XBH, Doubles and IBBs, #2 in OPS and BBs, #3 in SLG, TB and WAR, and #5 in BA. For NL players only, which is all that matters in the MVP race, he's #1 in OPS, OBP, XBH, Doubles, BBs and IBBs, #2 in SLG and WAR, and #3 in BA and TB. And, amazingly, he's only 4 RBI out of the NL top five in that category as well. Not to mention a very likely candidate for another Gold Glove. At this point he's arguably the best hitter (and best all-around player) in the game not named Josh Hamilton.

Right now his strongest competition for the award looks to be David Wright, Andre Eithier and Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo is probably more of a long shot because of the Rockies/Coors Field factor. With the Mets and Dodgers both likely to remain in the playoff hunt, I'm assuming Wright and Eithier will continue to be in the MVP chase (Kemp is a mystery due to his injury issues). The NL MVP race could come down to two guys who finish the season with less than 100 RBI (Votto and Wright). I know the award has been won before by players with fewer then 100 ribbies, but it would be almost unheard of in the modern era for the top two candidates to both fall under that mark.

I still believe Joey will reach the 100 RBI mark, and likely be more in the 110-115 range, but as of right now he's on pace for the high 90's. I realize in the current era of statistical overkill in baseball that RBI doesn't carry the same weight it once did, but I also know many voters still consider it a glitter stat. Assuming the Reds win their division, it will be interesting to see how much importance is placed on RBI. I personally think his reputation has reached the point that one glitter stat won't hurt him, and if it comes down to Votto and Wright, the stat is thrown out the window anyway. I like Joey's chances for MVP #2.

[Assembly Hall]

Out of curiosity......How do McCutheon's stats stack up at this point in the season?

[New York Red]

Out of curiosity......How do McCutheon's stats stack up at this point in the season?
Not quite as impressive as Votto, Wright or CarGo at this point, but still very impressive nonetheless. On pace for a WAR of 6 or so, which would assure him of a second straight All-Star game appearance, but not worthy of an MVP award. He would definitely get votes though, probably enough to finish in the 5-10 range, depending on how he performs the rest of the season. It appears he has the same issue Votto has -- teammates not getting on base in front of him and not a consistent enough threat behind him to give him protection. He's one the best 25-and-under players in the game, IMO. Hopefully we can keep him quiet for the next three days. Good call, AH.

[Assembly Hall]

I am all for keeping him quiet the next three days!!!!!!! I was just wondering how his numbers looked. If the Pirates stay in the hunt until the end without acquiring any help for him I think he will end up in the mix if his numbers stay on track. I think as of right now, he is a "sleeper". As you said NY, I hope he goes to sleep!!!!!!!;)

[Ironman92]

CarGo leading the league in runs and RBI is a rarity.

Ryan Braun will be around all year. (I know)

One name we are forgetting that changed his approach after the first month and has been killing it ever since.....Giancarlo Stanton

Beltran right now is well up there.

[New York Red]

CarGo leading the league in runs and RBI is a rarity.

Ryan Braun will be around all year. (I know)

One name we are forgetting that changed his approach after the first month and has been killing it ever since.....Giancarlo Stanton

Beltran right now is well up there.
I was just sticking with those who could likely be on division winners. If you aren't on a division winner, you need to have a pretty good edge statistically. Stanton is a good choice too, because that division could still be up for grabs in September. I added CarGo because he could be one of those players who puts up monster numbers for a last place team. Tough to win an MVP that way, but I'm sure he'll be in the hunt. One thing is certain -- Matt Kemp's ongoing hammy issue has brought everyone else into the mix. It looks like he might not be back before the all-star break, so I'm assuming his MVP chances are gone.

[Assembly Hall]

More importantly we will have to see what Kemp does when he comes back. Another couple of guys I would put on the radar screen at this point in time are Melky with the Giants and Molina with the Cards. A lot will depend on how their teams finish up in the standings.

[krm1580]

I was just sticking with those who could likely be on division winners. If you aren't on a division winner, you need to have a pretty good edge statistically. Stanton is a good choice too, because that division could still be up for grabs in September. I added CarGo because he could be one of those players who puts up monster numbers for a last place team. Tough to win an MVP that way, but I'm sure he'll be in the hunt. One thing is certain -- Matt Kemp's ongoing hammy issue has brought everyone else into the mix. It looks like he might not be back before the all-star break, so I'm assuming his MVP chances are gone.

If the season ended right now I would think the NL would be between Votto and David Wright. Both guys are far and away the best players on their respective first place teams.

I apologize up front to NYRed, I am not trying to take a shot at you as the numbers at face value are MVP worthy, but can we please remove any talk of CarGo as an elite hitter and MVP candidate until he can have a season where he can muster a road OPS of at least .800.

I know the Reds play in a home park that help hitters too but you look a Joey Votto and he is a .950+ OPS guy for his career both home and away. CarGo on the other hand has a nearly .300OPS differntial for his career in his home and away splits and this year its almost .400 difference. The guy is a good hitter but his elite hitter stats are completely park driven.

[The DARK]

It'll be difficult for CarGo (or any Rockies hitter for that matter) to muster up much support in a mile-high park. Tulowitzki wasn't really considered during Votto's MVP season for that reason, even though his stats and WAR suggested he deserved to be. Rockies hitters just have that much of an extra wall to scale, and it doesn't help that they have a cellar-dwelling team.

Braun's got a lot to prove after the allegations, but it'll take a special season to get him over the edge as well, with a lot of the voters likely still suspicious. Right now, he hasn't been able to separate himself, either.

Beltran and Wright are good, but I don't think they're truly as good as they've played so far. They'll still put up some fine stats, but they'll be a notch below MVP caliber.

Stanton is definitely one to look out for, especially with his team on the rise. I'd imagine that he's your NL home run champion, and Votto's biggest competition as the season drags on.

[Ironman92]

CarGo finished 3rd the year Votto won didn't he? If CarGo puts up the numbers close to Votto he will get the votes near Votto. He's great on defense and he's a better baserunner than Votto. Leading the league in runs and RBI is huge if he can continue

You argue Coors field factor....GABP is a joke as well. What about the division? Reds play in a division with all pretty good hitter's parks.....San Diego, San Fran, Dodgers.....I haven't looked but I'd guess are all lower half on hitter friendliness.

Votto has the main edge over Braun and CarGo (steroids and cruddy team)

My #1 worry to Votto's MVP chances is Giancarlo Stanton....the Marlins are picking it up and he's getting better and better....and he's very liked (which plays a role as we know)

All this being said....look what happened to Matt Kemp. There are over 100 games left, I'm glad Votto is atop the early MVP race.

[New York Red]

If the season ended right now I would think the NL would be between Votto and David Wright. Both guys are far and away the best players on their respective first place teams.

I apologize up front to NYRed, I am not trying to take a shot at you as the numbers at face value are MVP worthy, but can we please remove any talk of CarGo as an elite hitter and MVP candidate until he can have a season where he can muster a road OPS of at least .800.

I know the Reds play in a home park that help hitters too but you look a Joey Votto and he is a .950+ OPS guy for his career both home and away. CarGo on the other hand has a nearly .300OPS differntial for his career in his home and away splits and this year its almost .400 difference. The guy is a good hitter but his elite hitter stats are completely park driven.
No offense at all. I made similar comments above, when I mentioned the Coors Field factor as the reason CarGo would likely be eliminated. He would have to put up monster numbers to get votes over Votto and Wright. I still think Ethier is in the hunt, but not as likely as Votto or Wright. Ethier has continued to hit with Kemp out, but his power numbers have dropped. Add in the pitcher's ballpark factor and it's unlikely Ethier finishes the season as hot as he started it. I think it comes down to Votto vs Wright. I'm just glad we're finished with the Nats and Braves for the season. Wright can't say that.

[New York Red]

Votto has the main edge over Braun and CarGo (steroids and cruddy team).
I can't see Braun ever winning another MVP, not after the shady way he won his first. I'm sure voters would be reluctant to vote his way at this point. He would have to have a Babe Ruth type season to get votes over highly respected players like Votto and Wright.

[New York Red]

Beltran and Wright are good, but I don't think they're truly as good as they've played so far. They'll still put up some fine stats, but they'll be a notch below MVP caliber.
I think you're selling Wright a little short. He's coming off two injury-plagued seasons, but before that he put together several very strong years. He had hit over .300 and driven in 100+ runs in 5 of the previous six years, and finished in the top ten in MVP voting three times. Barring injury, he'll be going to his 6th all-star game this year, and if not for injuries the past two seasons he'd likely be making his 8th all-star game appearance in 9 years in the league. He's the real deal and 2012 is his hottest start ever.