Drew Stubbs

[Ironman92]

I was looking into some stats for Reds players.....these Drew Stubbs stats really stood out.

They show the stat about when Stubbs scores a run we are something like 23-2 or something that's hard to believe....but check this out....

In the 27 games Stubbs has played and the Reds lost...he is 11 for 98 with 1 double (only XB hit in 98 AB) and scored 2 runs and has 2 RBI.

Avg .112
OPS .309

Of course his numbers are solid when he plays and we win....I just could not fathom his numbers in our losses.

Stubbs is a table-setter for sure...but this season with runners on base he is 11/78 with a .141 avg and .455 OPS

He's currently 0 for his last 20.

[Trajinous]

Those are some crazy numbers. I feel like Bruce and Stubbs are going to be streaky and hopefully more experience results in more consistency. With Heisey being mediocore, it's best to ride the highs and deal with the lows.

[Stray]

Yea it's frustrating when he doesn't get on base, because the numbers show that when he does get on he usually makes his way around to score, and we win. Regardless of the numbers I've seen some swings made this year that he didn't have in the bag last year, I guess you gotta give Jacoby some credit there. His inability to bunt is really bad though...it's easy to say he should bunt a few times a week, but when he does we see how bad he is at it. The coaches say he works on it a lot...I find it a little hard to believe.

[Ironman92]

His eye at the plate has improved a little.....improved his BB/K ratio.

[Ironman92]

The numbers when they lose still just blow me away. 1 extra base hit in 98 AB....2 runs in 27 games?

[The Rage]

Stubbs is horrible. If the Reds want to upgrade something..............he is it.

[Trajinous]

His .844 OPS in June is a promising sign.

[Ironman92]

I can't think of any player in history really comparable to him.

[Ironman92]

His .844 OPS in June is a promising sign.

There were some pretty good stats. Most of them were very small sample size.

An .844 OPS overall would make the Reds very difficult to beat!

His stats in certain counts was about as hard to believe. On first pitch he's like .418 and virtually every other one is around 200. Seems like he was .190 on 2-0 counts?....maybe it was 2-1

[Ohayou]

I don't mind holding onto him until Hamilton is ready. He does have SOME value, but it's hard for me to see him getting any better.

[The_Mudshark]

I can't think of any player in history really comparable to him.

I would think any comparable players were career minor leaguers... :D

[BluegrassRedleg]

I'd say there's a pretty strong connection between him getting on and Joey getting him in. That's what is so frustrating about having arguably the NL's top hitter on our side and no one getting on base in front of him. Just think what Votto's numbers COULD look like? They'd be crazy(ier).

[Ironman92]

I would think any comparable players were career minor leaguers... :D

Just offensive numbers there are several comparable....his skill set is completely unique. There have been very few players with his speed that were as powerful/strong. His arm is way better than just about any player that has had his speed. Is not a good bunter, has trouble sliding and strikes out a lot. I can't think of any players like that at all. Players that are similar either don't have nearly is arm/strength or his speed.

[Ironman92]

I'd say there's a pretty strong connection between him getting on and Joey getting him in. That's what is so frustrating about having arguably the NL's top hitter on our side and no one getting on base in front of him. Just think what Votto's numbers COULD look like? They'd be crazy(ier).

Yeah....Votto for sure. But like last night...he was atrocious...but snuck in a run scored and we won. We are like 24-2 when he scores....we must be something near that when he doesn't. Crazy

[rgslone]

I don't mind holding onto him until Hamilton is ready. He does have SOME value, but it's hard for me to see him getting any better.

I agree. As long as Stubbs isn't hitting above the 6th spot I don't think its too bad. He gives you good defense and decent power. Just don't expect him to ever be able to hit in the top of the line-up and you won't be too frustrated.

[Jamz]

Drew Stubbs just seems to be unable to adjust. It's sad to see a guy with tools like his be unable to put it together. It's something that scares me about Bruce aswell, though to a lesser extent.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Drew Stubbs just seems to be unable to adjust. It's sad to see a guy with tools like his be unable to put it together. It's something that scares me about Bruce aswell, though to a lesser extent.

I hear people talk about his tools a lot, but the only tool I know he has is speed, which is often negated because he refuses to change his hitting approach. He rarely gets on base, and when he does, he's often left standing there because there's an apparent reluctance to run in front of Votto.

I'll be pleased if they find a way to package him in a deal that helps the Reds solve the 1-2 hole problems.

[texasdave]

Yes, Stubbs has all sorts of outlier statistics. Here is one I can't believe. Of all the qualified hitters in the league (3.1 PA per number of games his team has played), Drew Stubbs is tied for last in doubles. Huh? His power and his speed combination has netted him 8 doubles. Hard to fathom. Equally hard to fathom is the fact that, despite his speed, he has yet to triple in 2012.

[Red Raindog]

Yes, Stubbs has all sorts of outlier statistics. Here is one I can't believe. Of all the qualified hitters in the league (3.1 PA per number of games his team has played), Drew Stubbs is tied for last in doubles. Huh? His power and his speed combination has netted him 8 doubles. Hard to fathom. Equally hard to fathom is the fact that, despite his speed, he has yet to triple in 2012.

:eek:

[Trajinous]

I agree. As long as Stubbs isn't hitting above the 6th spot I don't think its too bad. He gives you good defense and decent power. Just don't expect him to ever be able to hit in the top of the line-up and you won't be too frustrated.

Agreed, yet Baker keeps him batting 1st or 2nd....

[Old NDN]

Just offensive numbers there are several comparable....his skill set is completely unique. There have been very few players with his speed that were as powerful/strong. His arm is way better than just about any player that has had his speed. Is not a good bunter, has trouble sliding and strikes out a lot. I can't think of any players like that at all. Players that are similar either don't have nearly is arm/strength or his speed.

.....but the Reds keep running him out there at/near the top of the order and he continues to be pitiful! It's downright painful to watch. It's pretty obvious that Cozart, Stubbs, or Heisey can't hit in the 1-2 spots, and there continues to be no options, at least in Dusty's and Walt's world.

[Kcbuckeye22]

Wasn't this kid suppose to work on his bunting? If this kid could learn to bunt semi good he'd get on base half the time.
I'd rather have him bunt on, steal, and Votto hit him in.

[5TimeWSChamps]

Well this thread is depressing

[joshua]

You have to think that Walt is working a trade for a high lefty OBP guy, he almost HAS to be. If that goes down, Stubbs will be headed elsewhere. You can't use his speed and defense to justify why you're running him out there every day when you're batting him so high in the order.

[malcontent]

You have to think that Walt is working a trade for a high lefty OBP guy, he almost HAS to be. If that goes down, Stubbs will be headed elsewhere. You can't use his speed and defense to justify why you're running him out there every day when you're batting him so high in the order.
I really believe they had a chance to move him earlier.

After this latest slump, I think his trade value is negligible.

It was past obvious that it needed to be done, but Jocketty couldn't get off his arse to do it.

[malcontent]

Wasn't this kid suppose to work on his bunting? If this kid could learn to bunt semi good he'd get on base half the time.
I'd rather have him bunt on, steal, and Votto hit him in.
But bunting is just one of the "weapons in his arsenal" (I love that quote).

And hasn't he already capitalized 2 or 3 times this year already?

"Bunting doesn't by any means define my game," Stubbs said. "It's just an added weapon to my arsenal. When it's available and the situation presents itself, be able to capitalize. It gives me a chance to use my speed."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20120308&content_id=27123462&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

[R_Webb18]

the only reason wins are high when he scores is b/c

#1 he bats 2nd
#2 he's fast
#3 votto bats 3rd and leads the league in doubles

so all's stubbs has to is get on 1st and he will prob score on a double a lot of the time.

even with this id still rather have better overall hitters batting before him.

[Stray]

Welsh was pointing out how he was pulling off of the ball on this 0fer slump. Give Heisey a start or two and get Stubbs some work with Jacoby imo.

[R_Webb18]

Welsh was pointing out how he was pulling off of the ball on this 0fer slump. Give Heisey a start or two and get Stubbs some work with Jacoby imo.

thats the peoblem with reds they keep throwing same 2 in 2 hole

[texasdave]

Don't worry. He will have another 7-10 day spurt where he looks all-universe pretty soon. And that will buy him another 3 months of being a fixture in the starting lineup. And fast guys bat at the top. Everybody knows that. Getting on base is wayyyy overrated. Did I mention that he is really, really fast? Drew Stubbs is the kind of player that gets a manager fired. He sure looks as if he should be a lot better. But he never plays up to those looks. Not consistently anyway.

Now batting .250 out of the two hole. Water finds its own level.

[DocRed]

Good thing Stubbs was given the "Dusty" pictures.....

[Ironman92]

Welsh was pointing out how he was pulling off of the ball on this 0fer slump. Give Heisey a start or two and get Stubbs some work with Jacoby imo.

This is where I question Jacoby...isn't that everyone's problem when they are slumping. Being willing to hit the ball hard where it's pitched. Brandon Phillips is a .315 hitter if he always has that approach (better this year) Anyone think Bruce is a .255 hitter? Stubbs, Heisey, Cozart....seems endless. But at what point do you not see you've pulled off pitches two straight AB and not commit to going up the middle or oppo?

Watch every team we play and even the cruddy lineups are hitting the ball where it's pitched....they just aren't very good (see Rolen, Cairo)

[Ironman92]

Good thing Stubbs was given the "Dusty" pictures.....

That's funny.

[Ironman92]

Well this thread is depressing

With 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd he's .400/.400/1.000

1.400 OPS

He has over 1.000 OPS in the 2nd, 4th and 7th innings this year.

[EMAW]

I understand frustration with Stubbs, do not understand the obsession to get Heisey in the lineup. He has less speed and is not nearly the defensive CF that Stubbs is. He will hit for a higher average, but never, ever walks.

[Ironman92]

I understand frustration with Stubbs, do not understand the obsession to get Heisey in the lineup. He has less speed and is not nearly the defensive CF that Stubbs is. He will hit for a higher average, but never, ever walks.

No one wants Heisey in there every day. Everyone wants Stubbs to not get 550 AB.

Everyone outside of Dee Gordon and maybe Ben Revere, everyone has less speed but don't act like it's a big enough difference to matter. Stubbs yesterday caught the ball in the gap was the first ball other CF's don't get to in about a month and a half. Stubbs goes home to first in about 3.75 on average.....Heisey averages about 3.88 and Valdez is likely under 4.00.....that's 90 feet. The average long run fly ball is around 60 feet. You want me to do the math?....mix in the fact that he cannot dive and has trouble sliding. He hasn't saved 3 more runs than anyone else would've.

Heisey is not a 500 AB guy but he just had his first month ever with a starting role and made numerous web gems and hit .302 during that time. 5/13-6/20ish.

He never, ever walks? Worked an impressive walk last night in one PA....and his pitiful OB% is higher than Mr. Everyday....go by his consistent starting numbers and it's about .30 higher....nothing great at all, very 4th OF worthy, just like Stubbs.

[smixsell]

Subbs needs some time on the bench NOW. He's killing the team currently in the 2-hole and doing his best "Johnny Gomes 2011" impression. He's having miserable at bats. :(

Over the longer term, he badly needs to change his approach at the plate to that of a slap hitter. Once he learns some bat control by focusing on slapping the ball to all fields, it wouldn't suprise me if he were eventually able to hit with power similar to his earlier years. IMO Jacoby and Baker are not helping our young hitters with their emphasis on the "see a good pitch, crush it" approach to hitting. :thumbdown:

I can't wait until they are both gone! :thumbup:

[Ironman92]

Did some more looking at the stats.

From May 14th to June 22nd Chris Heisey started most of the games and had consistent playing time.

Here are is numbers:

.318 avg
.333 OB%
.423 Slug%
.756 OPS

His numbers were awful up to then. During that span he raised his average from .200 to .269. Raised his OB% from .253 to .306. Raised his slug% from .286 to .372 and his OPS went from .539 to .677.

So no, he is not going to be a key starter for a World Champion club....but neither is Stubbs. Heisey is fine as a 4th outfielder, Stubbs is not as an everyday, top of the order starter. I think he badly needs a change of scenery.

It has been so frustrating over the Dusty years watching Patterson, Taveras and Stubbs overwhelmingly dominate CF and the top of the order because they were fast and "there were simply no other options"

There....I'm done. I have given facts and the horse is indeed dead. I will make no other posts that say someone else should be in CF more often or that Stubbs should be way down the order until at least July 23rd.

Sorry, will go fill up my glass a touch.

[Redsfansince72]

Stubbs 0-24 and guess what he is in the lineup batting 2nd in front of our best hitter. what does that tell you?? he cant hit!! needs to be sent somewhere else.. He is such a waste of talent. when he said he did nothing to improve on his 205 K performance from last season during the off season, I would have traded him right there..He could care less about his lack of a hitters approach. Has speed and cant find 1st with a road map. Rather strike out looking than put the bat on the ball. Cant bunt consistently... Im done watching him hurt this team. when will Walt make a move to get rid of him?????

[Redsfansince72]

Stubbs 0-24 and guess what he is in the lineup batting 2nd in front of our best hitter. what does that tell you?? he cant hit!! needs to be sent somewhere else.. He is such a waste of talent. when he said he did nothing to improve on his 205 K performance from last season during the off season, I would have traded him right there..He could care less about his lack of a hitters approach. Has speed and cant find 1st with a road map. Rather strike out looking than put the bat on the ball. Cant bunt consistently... Im done watching him hurt this team. when will Walt make a move to get rid of him?????

[Tuff Nut]

Stubbs 0-24 and guess what he is in the lineup batting 2nd in front of our best hitter. what does that tell you?? he cant hit!! needs to be sent somewhere else.. He is such a waste of talent. when he said he did nothing to improve on his 205 K performance from last season during the off season, I would have traded him right there..He could care less about his lack of a hitters approach. Has speed and cant find 1st with a road map. Rather strike out looking than put the bat on the ball. Cant bunt consistently... Im done watching him hurt this team. when will Walt make a move to get rid of him?????
When? Not soon enough in my opinion. But now that I have said something, he'll go 3-4, and everyone will be saying to keep holding out for him.......same as Bailey. One good outing, and everyone goes gaga.

[Red Raindog]

When? Not soon enough in my opinion. But now that I have said something, he'll go 3-4, and everyone will be saying to keep holding out for him.......same as Bailey. One good outing, and everyone goes gaga.

By my reckoning --- Bailey has started 16 games and had 11 Quality Starts ---

I doubt that comes close to Stubbs' production this year ---

What I'm trying to say is that Bailey - while extremely frustrating is giving the Reds MUCH more than you give him credit.

[Ironman92]

Bailey is looking to be a 12-10 guy with 195 inn....far more formidable and did work to improve himself this past offseason....and thus far it's helped him.

[RedsFanInBama]

Don't stop now, Ironman. You're close to converting me. Well, either you or Stubbs is.

[Ironman92]

Don't stop now, Ironman. You're close to converting me. Well, either you or Stubbs is.

He's fine. Beautiful runner. We're only a 1/2 game back and we'll win easily tonight. Drew will be big going 2/4. Stay patient my friend.

[RedsFanInBama]

I saw where the Yankees beat us to Darnell McDonald.

[Kcbuckeye22]

Stubby in the lineup tonight. He's getting his chances to improve. Hope for the best.

[Ironman92]

Jay Bruce is better off of Wandy Rodriguez.

[Redsfansince72]

Stubby in the lineup tonight. He's getting his chances to improve. Hope for the best.

Stubbs has had WAY more than enough time to prove himself. 0-27 and counting.. still cant find 1st and Dusty is afraid to make him loose his job

[mikemo14]

Ironman is right on most accounts. One thing that no one mentions when they talk about the Stubbs/Heisey situation is that everytime I watch Heisey play he does something positive to help his team win. He did have a horrible at bat in the ninth inning a few weeks ago, but will bunt to get on base, plays in my estimation a very solid if not spectacular centerfield and when he did get the chance to have a month as a starter hit .300. He has a couple of bad at bats and sees the pines for weeks, while Stubbs has a week of bad at bats and gets his permanent spot in front of the best hitter in baseball. I dont get Dusty's thought process on this one at all.

[Ironman92]

Ironman is right on most accounts. One thing that no one mentions when they talk about the Stubbs/Heisey situation is that everytime I watch Heisey play he does something positive to help his team win. He did have a horrible at bat in the ninth inning a few weeks ago, but will bunt to get on base, plays in my estimation a very solid if not spectacular centerfield and when he did get the chance to have a month as a starter hit .300. He has a couple of bad at bats and sees the pines for weeks, while Stubbs has a week of bad at bats and gets his permanent spot in front of the best hitter in baseball. I dont get Dusty's thought process on this one at all.

What am I wrong about in your opinion?

[mikemo14]

I guess I am not sold on the fact that all Heisey can be is a fourth outfielder. I think given the chance and everday at bats he could be a pretty capable contributer to the Reds. At least untill they find someone better than what we have now.

[Ironman92]

I guess I am not sold on the fact that all Heisey can be is a fourth outfielder. I think given the chance and everday at bats he could be a pretty capable contributer to the Reds. At least untill they find someone better than what we have now.

I don't either....just hate having fruit thrown at me.

[mikemo14]

What do you mean?

[Ironman92]

If Stubbs can play 158 game....Heisey can play 150.

[mikemo14]

True

[malcontent]

If it meant never having to see Baker in a Cincinnati Reds uniform again after September....I pray that he continues to do precisely what he did with T-Virus and Patterson, and keep writing Stubbs in at the top of the lineup in spite of the numbers.

[smixsell]

If it meant never having to see Baker in a Cincinnati Reds uniform again after September....I pray that he continues to do precisely what he did with T-Virus and Patterson, and keep writing Stubbs in at the top of the lineup in spite of the numbers.

Totally agree.

Are Walt and Bob drinking the Kool-Aide?

[Todd Gack]

If it meant never having to see Baker in a Cincinnati Reds uniform again after September....I pray that he continues to do precisely what he did with T-Virus and Patterson, and keep writing Stubbs in at the top of the lineup in spite of the numbers.

This team is obviously a World Series contender with anyone but Dusty at the helm. Joe Girardi? We're at least 4 games up on Pitt. Bochy? We're 5 games up. Ron Washington? 10 games up. Davey Johnson? Hell, they'd probably call it a season and just give us the championship with him.

[Todd Gack]

Totally agree.

Are Walt and Bob drinking the Kool-Aide?

I can't wait until next year when Chris Heisey is our every-day centerfielder and 2-hole batter. This team may finally go places.

[Ironman92]

This team is obviously a World Series contender with anyone but Dusty at the helm. Joe Girardi? We're at least 4 games up on Pitt. Bochy? We're 5 games up. Ron Washington? 10 games up. Davey Johnson? Hell, they'd probably call it a season and just give us the championship with him.

I think Ron Washington and Dusty are pretty similar....though Dusty isn't a coke head. Texas is just flat out loaded.

[dubc47834]

If it meant never having to see Baker in a Cincinnati Reds uniform again after September....I pray that he continues to do precisely what he did with T-Virus and Patterson, and keep writing Stubbs in at the top of the lineup in spite of the numbers.

To me this just proves that many would want a losing team with the manager they want than a winning one with Dusty.

[Ironman92]

To me this just proves that many would want a losing team with the manager they want than a winning one with Dusty.

Proves many?

[BluegrassRedleg]

No Stubbs tonight. Sing praises to Buddah.

[chuck6660]

I have more faith in Valdez batting second than I do Stubbs. If nothing else, Valdez can bunt!

[Jefferson24]

I can't wait until next year when Chris Heisey is our every-day centerfielder and 2-hole batter. This team may finally go places.

It is nice knowing that all of our best players will be back next year and some of them might be maturing and getting better with more time in the league.

[joshua]

I have more faith in Valdez batting second than I do Stubbs. If nothing else, Valdez can bunt!

Valdez in CF hitting 2nd. Hope he does well, but he really shouldn't be hitting in the two hole.

[Ironman92]

Valdez in CF hitting 2nd. Hope he does well, but he really shouldn't be hitting in the two hole.

Yeah....but he's playing CF....so he has to bat 1st or 2nd

[Ironman92]

Valdez could go 6/6 with 5 runs and 7 RBI and 2 Web Gems.....and will be splinter man tomorrow.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Valdez could go 6/6 with 5 runs and 7 RBI and 2 Web Gems.....and will be splinter man tomorrow.

Sadly, that's true.

[Redsfansince72]

Hiesey had 2 hits.. Bet Dusty cant wait to put 0-28 Stubbs back batting 2nd today!! GRRRRRRRRRRRR

[Tuff Nut]

Hiesey had 2 hits.. Bet Dusty cant wait to put 0-28 Stubbs back batting 2nd today!! GRRRRRRRRRRRR
Where's your logic? Heisey didn't 2nd, and Luddy will be back in LF tonite.
I'm with ya though....Heisey needs to be playing instead of 0-28 Drew.

[dubc47834]

Proves many?

Many posters on this message board!!!

[Redsfansince72]

Where's your logic? Heisey didn't 2nd, and Luddy will be back in LF tonite.
I'm with ya though....Heisey needs to be playing instead of 0-28 Drew.

I didnt say he hit 2nd. I am saying Dusty will put Hiesey on the bench and bat idiot out maker Stubbs 2nd.. Thats his logic.. Not mine!

[Stray]

I'd rather it turn into a straight platoon in CF. Let them split the starts out there to make it easier to get Frazier and Ludwick in the lineup more often.

[Ironman92]

Hiesey had 2 hits.. Bet Dusty cant wait to put 0-28 Stubbs back batting 2nd today!! GRRRRRRRRRRRR

Stubbs in CF and Luddy in LF....it's easy

[Ironman92]

Many posters on this message board!!!

It was just one poster though.

[markymark69]

I agree. As long as Stubbs isn't hitting above the 6th spot I don't think its too bad. He gives you good defense and decent power. Just don't expect him to ever be able to hit in the top of the line-up and you won't be too frustrated.

Yeah, I agree I would like him to see at the bottom of the order. I still maintain his biggest problem is that he takes too many quality strikes - fastballs right down the middle or certainly too close to take - and swings at the pitcher's pitch (slider, curveball, etc.) Whether or not that is on Jacoby or Stubbs - or a combination - I don't know - that's just my observation.

[DocRed]

Good to see Dusty's strategy of letting Stubbs play his way out of his slump working.....

[brm7675]

The playing of Stubbs not an issue...where he is hitting is the issue

[Stray]

If you had 32 in your office pool you just cleaned up!

[Old NDN]

The playing of Stubbs not an issue...where he is hitting is the issue

Somewhat true. But, Stubbs' futility is to the point where he is really hurting this team. Having him sit for a game to "try to figure it out" or "playing his way out of a slump" clearly hasn't worked. Playing him and batting him 7th or 8th only creates a hole in the bottom of the order. The Reds are in a pennant race folks. They need help/production!! Patience has left the building. Heisey and Valdez will have to make do until Walt finds them some help. If Stubbs has options, let him work on his game at Triple A.

[New York Red]

Somewhat true. But, Stubbs' futility is to the point where he is really hurting this team. Having him sit for a game to "try to figure it out" or "playing his way out of a slump" clearly hasn't worked. Playing him and batting him 7th or 8th only creates a hole in the bottom of the order. The Reds are in a pennant race folks. They need help/production!! Patience has left the building. Heisey and Valdez will have to make do until Walt finds them some help. If Stubbs has options, let him work on his game at Triple A.
There are plenty of holes in this lineup. It's not just Stubbs. And as long as Dusty and Jacoby are in Cincinnati, I don't see anything changing drastically. We have the best pitching staff in the history of this organization, but it's being wasted because of a terrible offense. It's very frustrating.

[Kingspoint]

I was looking into some stats for Reds players.....these Drew Stubbs stats really stood out.

They show the stat about when Stubbs scores a run we are something like 23-2 or something that's hard to believe....but check this out....

In the 27 games Stubbs has played and the Reds lost...he is 11 for 98 with 1 double (only XB hit in 98 AB) and scored 2 runs and has 2 RBI.

Avg .112
OPS .309

Of course his numbers are solid when he plays and we win....I just could not fathom his numbers in our losses.

Stubbs is a table-setter for sure...but this season with runners on base he is 11/78 with a .141 avg and .455 OPS

He's currently 0 for his last 20.

Those are the reasons why they probably will, and probably should, stick with Stubbs for another year or two. However, Heisey should be playing Center full-time, with Stubbs platooning in Left Field with others, occasionally spotting Heisey in Center.

[Kingspoint]

The playing of Stubbs not an issue...where he is hitting is the issueNot setting the table properly for Votto is criminal on the part of Dusty. Once again, this team wins "in spite of" Dusty Baker.

[IamRV]

Somewhat true. But, Stubbs' futility is to the point where he is really hurting this team. Having him sit for a game to "try to figure it out" or "playing his way out of a slump" clearly hasn't worked. Playing him and batting him 7th or 8th only creates a hole in the bottom of the order. The Reds are in a pennant race folks. They need help/production!! Patience has left the building. Heisey and Valdez will have to make do until Walt finds them some help. If Stubbs has options, let him work on his game at Triple A.

Agreed

[Ironman92]

Well the bad news is Stubbs lost his vaunted 3 game hitting streak where he was a robust .231 (3-13)

The good news is the Reds won and in Drew's last 8 starts he's had 35 plate appearances and has made 32 outs.

4 outs a game.....average of the past 8

[Tuff Nut]

Well the bad news is Stubbs lost his vaunted 3 game hitting streak where he was a robust .231 (3-13)

The good news is the Reds won and in Drew's last 8 starts he's had 35 plate appearances and has made 32 outs.

4 outs a game.....average of the past 8
Speed kills, my man. But we both already knew that......:beerme:

[George Foster]

Well the bad news is Stubbs lost his vaunted 3 game hitting streak where he was a robust .231 (3-13)

The good news is the Reds won and in Drew's last 8 starts he's had 35 plate appearances and has made 32 outs.

4 outs a game.....average of the past 8

Its amazing we won this game considering no one got on base ahead of Votto. The pitcher gets to pitch from the wind-up, does not have to worry about the runner and can have 100% concentration on Votto. It boggles the mind Votto is batting over .345ish when Cozart and Stubbs have an On Base percentage under .250....It's astonishing.

[Ironman92]

Its amazing we won this game considering no one got on base ahead of Votto. The pitcher gets to pitch from the wind-up, does not have to worry about the runner and can have 100% concentration on Votto. It boggles the mind Votto is batting over .345ish when Cozart and Stubbs have an On Base percentage under .250....It's astonishing.

They aren't under .250

Stubbs is at a very respectable .286 OB% (for a pitcher).....but he's on his way up as he is 3 for his last 49 and has zero walks in his his last 37 plate appearances.....but does have 15 hard fought strikeouts.

[Ironman92]

Folks....I'm not making this stuff up.

[Old NDN]

They aren't under .250

Stubbs is at a very respectable .286 OB% (for a pitcher).....but he's on his way up as he is 3 for his last 49 and has zero walks in his his last 37 plate appearances.....but does have 15 hard fought strikeouts.

Pretty good numbers for top-of-the-order player, don't ya think?lol. I knew it was bad, but the stats only magnify it more. Stubbs has become clueless and lost. Cozart belongs in the 7-8 spots. Trouble is, there's no solutions on this roster, and that's on Walt.

[redssince75]

Its amazing we won this game considering no one got on base ahead of Votto.

Well if they had, Joey had 2 GOs to second and 2 to SS. Looks like Dusty's "don't clog the basepaths" strategy avoided 4 double plays.

As to Dusty's "play your way out of a slump" approach to Stubbs, it reminds me of something my dad said to me when I was 16. We were driving 2 cars across country, and I was supposed to be following him. This was before cell phones. We hit Memphis and you have to get off the interstate and take surface streets. He took off like a shot and I lost him, even though he had been going slow on the interstate. When I caught up to him several miles later, I asked what happened.

"I sped up so I could hurry and get through the city before I lost you."

Still shaking my head over that one.

[IamRV]

I would be fine with Stubbs if we were to trade for a guy like Gerardo Parra and actually platoon them. Stubbs's numbers against LHP and particularly when batting second are very serviceable.

Let's face it, he's going to be on the club because:

A. The Reds aren't going to send him down or they would have already
B. No one in their right mind would give a bag of used balls for him
C. He's fast - whatever that means

[Ironman92]

I would be fine with Stubbs if we were to trade for a guy like Gerardo Parra and actually platoon them. Stubbs's numbers against LHP and particularly when batting second are very serviceable.

Let's face it, he's going to be on the club because:

A. The Reds aren't going to send him down or they would have already
B. No one in their right mind would give a bag of used balls for him
C. He's fast - whatever that means

Fast trumps everything.

I like your Parra idea.

[Red in Atl]

Stubbs is horrible. If the Reds want to upgrade something..............he is it.

Ditto!

I'm so tired of the Drew Stubbs experiment. Here's one way to look at it that is often missed. He was a 1st round pick whose been coddled and pampered throughout his ascension to the Show. Heisey on the other hand was a lower pic, didn't get the big signing bonus and has worked his way to basically the same position as Stubbs. How much more money, time and energy has the club invested on Stubbs over other players?

Stubbs is as clueless today as he was as a rookie. He never learns. Cut bait and move on!

[Stray]

Unless they're working on making a trade to get someone at the top of the order that they just can't tell us about yet, Phillips needs to be moved in front of Votto. BP isn't ideal at the top or at cleanup, but he's capable of doing both.

Drop Stubbs/Heisey to 7 and we'll live with whatever they do down there.

BP/trade?
Cozart
Votto
Ludwick/Frazier
Bruce
whatever....

Votto might be slumping now, but he hits wayyyy too many doubles to have the bases empty so often.

[gedred69]

I couldn't say it any better than this! Especially the part about the "coddling" all the way through the Farm system. Stubbs was given every possible opportunity to find a spot to succeed, lead-off, down in the order, back to lead-off,----even at the expense of developing other players of lower draft, who could have been maybe------better in the long run if they'd been given the same treatment? Look at Minors stats going back 2-4 years, and Danny Dorn comes to mind.


Ditto!

I'm so tired of the Drew Stubbs experiment. Here's one way to look at it that is often missed. He was a 1st round pick whose been coddled and pampered throughout his ascension to the Show. Heisey on the other hand was a lower pic, didn't get the big signing bonus and has worked his way to basically the same position as Stubbs. How much more money, time and energy has the club invested on Stubbs over other players?

Stubbs is as clueless today as he was as a rookie. He never learns. Cut bait and move on!

[smixsell]

Stubbs is currently completely lost at the plate. He has been lost most of the past 2 seasons. It is a travesty that he's at the top of our order in front of Votto. Time to end the "experiment."

PS I stand by my belief that he will be an good major league hitter someday. Sadly, I can only see that happening after a trade. I still predict that good hitting coach (which we don't have) will make this kid a star, but sadly if and when this happens it will be for another team.

[mu4103]

The problem with Stubbs is the same problem that many elite starting QBs have who are drafted early (like Mark Sanchez). When he is given a position and not asked to compete for it, it not only hurts the team and the players fighting for playing time, but it also hurts him. Competition leads to players pushing each other. Stubbs seems to perform well when the heat is on, but when the heat is never on him it ultimately leads to poor performance and no reason to strive to get better.

Mark Sanchez is being pushed a lot by Tim Tebow. He is either going to have to step up or step down. Early returns are that he is working his butt off. In the meantime, as far as I know, Drew Stubbs did nothing in the off-season to address his weaknesses. We all think we are a little better then we really are sometimes it's competition that makes us see ourselves as we really are.

I have never been sold on Drew Stubbs because of his K numbers. Sometimes he surprises me, but he is now worse then I thought he would ever be. As far as I know Drew has yet to perform on any level including the minors (I may be wrong - but that is what I remember). Sometimes a spade is a spade. Having said that, I do think he stands a better chance of success with another team. His handling by the Reds has really damaged him in my opinion. Heck I think Jonny Gomes is hitting the ball well this year.

[Ironman92]

Gomes is far better now than his last year with the Reds....goodness.

Agree that Stubbs needs a change of scenery.

[bigredmechanism]

Gomes is far better now than his last year with the Reds....goodness.

Agree that Stubbs needs a change of scenery.

At what point is Brook Jacoby held accountable?

[Ironman92]

Looks like Johnny Bench....gets free pass

[IamRV]

Gomes is far better now than his last year with the Reds....goodness.

Agree that Stubbs needs a change of scenery.

Jonny this year wRISP
.316 AVG .460 OBP .526 SLG .986 OPS

wRISP and 2 outs
.421 AVG .607 OBP .632 SLG 1.239 OPS :eek:

all while batting 4th, 5th and 6th.

[LeDoux]

I am not sure a change of scenery will help Stubbs. The problem seems vision related- the eye itself or the neural pathways involved. I would love it if Stubbs and the coaches found a new approach that would increase his contact rate. I just do not believe it will be so easy.

[miamiredskin]

disappointed Drew did not bat last night.

hoping he will be back in his 2-spot tonight.

we need his speed in front of Joey.

[m21eagle45]

disappointed Drew did not bat last night.

hoping he will be back in his 2-spot tonight.

we need his speed in front of Joey.

Speed does no good if he can't get on base. CH 3 hits last night, finally giving Votto a chance to drive someone in last night.

[Captain13]

disappointed Drew did not bat last night.

hoping he will be back in his 2-spot tonight.

we need his speed in front of Joey.

I hope this is a joke.

[Stray]

Unless there's a trade (which seems really likely at this point) we will need Stubbs to get back on track. Even if his track is just marginally better.

It's this kinda stuff that I trust Dusty with more than most managers. There were times this year where Reds fans were ready to quit on so many players that are now key contributors. Showing a guy some confidence can drive most of us insane at times, but when it works you start to see the results down the road.

With Stubbs I think we all know that he's a limited offensive player (putting it nicely), we can't really afford for him to be worse than that. As a starter, platoon player, or backup he still has value to this team that gets very very thin after you get past our big offensive players.

[miamiredskin]

I hope this is a joke.



Yes. I was only joking. As long as the Reds win, his presence in the lineup makes for some nice comedic relief, watching him flail away and rack up the K's.

When we start losing, it won't be so funny.

[mattfeet]

lol - there for a second I though Dusty was on RedsZone!

[Captain13]

Redskin, we can agree on that. I don't care if Dusty starts Cairo, Valdez and Stubbs everyday as long as the team keeps winning. I know this lineup would get blasted by half of the SD regulars, but if it got a win I would not complain.

Valdez 6
Stubbs 8
Cairo 3
Phillips 4
Heisey 9
Rolen 5
Ludwick 7
Hannigan 2
Pitcher 1

Looks like a Sunday special to me.

[P.E.R#14]

Stubbs is batting .212!!!!!!!! Kris Negron has a higher OPS. The only starter (or platooner such as Heisey/Frazier/Mes/Hanny) with a lower OPS or batting average is Rolen. His defense isn't good enough to start him despite his batting, and with an OBP of .281, what will his speed actually get you?

Over the next three weeks or so he should spend 4-6 hours each day in the batting cages and only come into a game as a pinch runner in late game situations where we need a run.

I just don't see what people are so enamored with. He's just not that good.


Go Reds!!

[IamRV]

Drew's numbers against leftys is very serviceable

.250 .304 .500 .804

What needs to happen is to give him max AB's against LHP and protect him as much as possible from batting against RHP.

[LeDoux]

Unless there's a trade (which seems really likely at this point) we will need Stubbs to get back on track. Even if his track is just marginally better.

It's this kinda stuff that I trust Dusty with more than most managers. There were times this year where Reds fans were ready to quit on so many players that are now key contributors. Showing a guy some confidence can drive most of us insane at times, but when it works you start to see the results down the road.

With Stubbs I think we all know that he's a limited offensive player (putting it nicely), we can't really afford for him to be worse than that. As a starter, platoon player, or backup he still has value to this team that gets very very thin after you get past our big offensive players.

But is dropping him out of the 2 slot going to destroy his confidence? He has batted lower in order before. I know I would have more patience with him if he was back at # 7.

[Stray]

But is dropping him out of the 2 slot going to destroy his confidence? He has batted lower in order before. I know I would have more patience with him if he was back at # 7.

If Phillips were leading off there's no way he'd be up near the top of the order, since we have yet to make that move it makes me wonder if they're thinking a leadoff guy will be brought in through a trade.

For what it's worth those guys at the bottom of the order seem to get a lot of chances to knock guys in. Whether it was Rolen, Frazier, Ludwick or whoever. It sucks that he doesn't get on in front of Votto, it would also suck to see him struggle in a big chance to knock some runs in. As long as he's down the way he is there's really no place to put him in the lineup and avoid him. We either need to get him going again or make the trade to improve that position.

Just my .02

[Ironman92]

Drew's numbers against leftys is very serviceable

.250 .304 .500 .804

What needs to happen is to give him max AB's against LHP and protect him as much as possible from batting against RHP.

See how hard that was to figure out! Pretty good versus lefties....and my math skills let me know that he stinks overall and therefore must be atrocious versus righties.

[P.E.R#14]

Drew's numbers against leftys is very serviceable

.250 .304 .500 .804

What needs to happen is to give him max AB's against LHP and protect him as much as possible from batting against RHP.

Those are tolerable numbers for a leadoff hitter who bats .300+ against right handers, not of someone batting .199 vs. righties.

Also, Stubbs is batting .104 in games lost.....

Go Reds!

[Ironman92]

.199/.273/.311

Versus righties (the vast majority)

That's a .584 OPS and a .199 avg

[Ironman92]

Those are tolerable numbers for a leadoff hitter who bats .300+ against right handers, not of someone batting .199 vs. righties.

Also, Stubbs is batting .104 in games lost.....

Go Reds!

You gotta show it all. In the 29 games we've lost and he played he is 11/106 with 2 runs, 2 RBI, 1 extra base hit (2B).....his OPS is .287

Possibly the worst split of a significant size sample I have ever seen.

[The Rage]

Stubbs is just awful. He doesn't have any good "feel" when to swing. Sorta like Bailey and his mechanics.

Guy doesn't have much natural hitting ability. Basically on the tool paradym, he has speed and that is it.

The Reds really need to move on and admit to a upgrade is needed.........badly. I think the improvement to a Span type for example, could provide this offense is immense.

[malcontent]

You gotta show it all. In the 29 games we've lost and he played he is 11/106 with 2 runs, 2 RBI, 1 extra base hit (2B).....his OPS is .287

Possibly the worst split of a significant size sample I have ever seen.
What do you do? Stubbs has been a festering, open sore on the offense for well over a year.

Both Jocketty and Baker have been utterly clueless when it came to Stubbs.

[texasdave]

Since the start of the 2011 season:

Heisey - .314/.448/.762

Stubbs - .309/.362/.671

Stubbs has had 970 PA in this time. That goes well past being a slump. Maybe that is what defines him. We all know bunting doesn't. Dusty has had a year and a half to get him going. Hasn't happened. Maybe Stubbs has another magical two-month run in him. Who knows. I'm not putting any money on it.

[P.E.R#14]

Since the start of the 2011 season:

Heisey - .314/.448/.762

Stubbs - .309/.362/.671

Stubbs has had 970 PA in this time. That goes well past being a slump. Maybe that is what defines him. We all know bunting doesn't. Dusty has had a year and a half to get him going. Hasn't happened. Maybe Stubbs has another magical two-month run in him. Who knows. I'm not putting any money on it.


Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but I have Stubbs at 202/864 since the start of 2011 for a .234 BA.


Go Reds!!

[texasdave]

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but I have Stubbs at 202/864 since the start of 2011 for a .234 BA.


Go Reds!!

Those numbers are OBP/SLG/OPS. No batting average in there.

Heisey - .264

Stubbs - .234

[IamRV]

My only point was that Stubbs is serviceable vs LHP and should be kept away from RHP to maximize his worth to the team. Nothing more. He certainly shouldn't be batting leadoff.

[P.E.R#14]

Those numbers are OBP/SLG/OPS. No batting average in there.

Heisey - .264

Stubbs - .234

oooohhhh....my apologies. Thanks for clarifying. :thumbup:

[LeDoux]

If Phillips were leading off there's no way he'd be up near the top of the order, since we have yet to make that move it makes me wonder if they're thinking a leadoff guy will be brought in through a trade.

For what it's worth those guys at the bottom of the order seem to get a lot of chances to knock guys in. Whether it was Rolen, Frazier, Ludwick or whoever. It sucks that he doesn't get on in front of Votto, it would also suck to see him struggle in a big chance to knock some runs in. As long as he's down the way he is there's really no place to put him in the lineup and avoid him. We either need to get him going again or make the trade to improve that position.

Just my .02

I agree with this. I don't have the numbers, but if 6 7 8 are getting more RBI opportunities than 3 4 5 then that is madness.

[malcontent]

My only point was that Stubbs is serviceable vs LHP and should be kept away from RHP to maximize his worth to the team. Nothing more. He certainly shouldn't be batting leadoff.
That's precisely what a lot of us stated here, oh, probably a year-and-a-half or more ago.

The one small problem with that is the "manager", though I know I don't need to tell you that.

It's simply mind-bending. Jocketty is not an innocent party by any means, but a "manager" that runs the likes of Patterson, T-Virus, and Stubbs out there every day and bats them 1 or 2.....deserves every single ounce of criticism that he could possibly receive.

[malcontent]

As far as Jocketty is concerned, he has now sat on his rear long enough that Stubbs' trade value is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

:thumbup:

[Ironman92]

Interesting stuff here IMO.

From 2010-current Drew Stubbs has went 0-4 or worse in a game 71 times....he started the next game 64 times (90.1%)

From 2010-current Chris Heisey has went 0-4 or worse 29 times....he started the next game 10 times (34.5%)

Drew Stubbs has went 0-4 or worse in back to back games 20 times since 2010......Chris Heisey has done it once.

Since Chris Heisey arrived in the big leagues he has had 148 starts.....Stubbs has had 337.

[smixsell]

That's precisely what a lot of us stated here, oh, probably a year-and-a-half or more ago.

The one small problem with that is the "manager", though I know I don't need to tell you that.

It's simply mind-bending. Jocketty is not an innocent party by any means, but a "manager" that runs the likes of Patterson, T-Virus, and Stubbs out there every day and bats them 1 or 2.....deserves every single ounce of criticism that he could possibly receive.

I agree.

PS It's not like OBP is a new or difficult concept either.

[Stray]

Stubbs is a terrible leadoff hitter as just about anyone paying attention knows, his move to the top of the order is more about Cozart imo. Zack was struggling bad and since getting out of that spot he's taken off a little.

I think we'll try to make a move for a leadoff hitter if the price is right. If not I doubt we'll make any big trade.

I will say I'm a little surprised that he's actually swung the bat as well as he has in these few games leading off. He was robbed a couple of times tonight and has really been hitting the ball alright. Drawing more walks too.

[R_Webb18]

stubbs is bad at lead off 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th. he's just bad. i love his defense and his speed but lets be fair the only thing he's good at is defense. he has good speed but if your never on base it really does not matter much. he can't bunt.

im guessing a smart thing to do is when your this bad don't bat him lead off and let him have the most at bats.

[Stray]

stubbs is bad at lead off 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th. he's just bad. i love his defense and his speed but lets be fair the only thing he's good at is defense. he has good speed but if your never on base it really does not matter much. he can't bunt.

im guessing a smart thing to do is when your this bad don't bat him lead off and let him have the most at bats.

To be fair, without Votto our lineup is kinda in a bad spot. Phillips is driving in a lot of runs in the middle of the order.

Heisey should be getting more starts, so if that's what youre getting at I def agree.

[R_Webb18]

To be fair, without Votto our lineup is kinda in a bad spot. Phillips is driving in a lot of runs in the middle of the order.

Heisey should be getting more starts, so if that's what youre getting at I def agree.

yea. heisey or not just lets see anyone. if you look at the numbers stubbs is 1 of the worst everyday players out there.

i understand votto is hurt but how does batting stubbs 1st help the team?

[kywildcats4life]

If the Reds want to hang on to Stubbs for the "future" then fine. If they want to win now while they have the chance to advance deep through the playoffs, it will not be with Stubbs. They have to trade for a CF/lead off hitter.

[Captain13]

Or they could end up trading for a cleanup hitter and moving BP to the leadoff.

[kywildcats4life]

Or they could end up trading for a cleanup hitter and moving BP to the leadoff.

To play where? I really like what Ludwick is doing in LF.

[Stray]

yea. heisey or not just lets see anyone. if you look at the numbers stubbs is 1 of the worst everyday players out there.

i understand votto is hurt but how does batting stubbs 1st help the team?

I think the only way it's helping is by putting Cozart in a more comfortable situation.

[Kingspoint]

If the Reds want to hang on to Stubbs for the "future" then fine. If they want to win now while they have the chance to advance deep through the playoffs, it will not be with Stubbs. They have to trade for a CF/lead off hitter.Aoki of Milwaukee.

[Kingspoint]

I think the only way it's helping is by putting Cozart in a more comfortable situation.And, oddly enough, over his career, he's scored 130 times in 180 games while batting first, an average of 0.72 runs per game. Jose Reyes, in comparison, is at 0.70 runs per game as a leadoff man. Juan Pierre, whom the Reds were thinking about acquiring to hit leadoff, is at 0.60.

This is also why the REDS have got to try better at harnessing his god-given abilities. It's their own fault for not forcing him while he was in the minors to bunt for base-hits and instilling in him a mindset to get on at all costs. It seems though that he was a good on-base-percentage guy until Dusty got hold of him, and since then he's been worse every season under Dusty. I truly think Stubbs just needs a new Manager and he'll be an elite leadoff hitter.

[Redsfansince72]

If the Reds want to hang on to Stubbs for the "future" then fine. If they want to win now while they have the chance to advance deep through the playoffs, it will not be with Stubbs. They have to trade for a CF/lead off hitter.

I totally agree!! And i suspect Stubbs will be dealt in any trade for a CF/leadoff hitter
:beerme:

[smixsell]

And, oddly enough, over his career, he's scored 130 times in 180 games while batting first, an average of 0.72 runs per game. Jose Reyes, in comparison, is at 0.70 runs per game as a leadoff man. Juan Pierre, whom the Reds were thinking about acquiring to hit leadoff, is at 0.60.

This is also why the REDS have got to try better at harnessing his god-given abilities. It's their own fault for not forcing him while he was in the minors to bunt for base-hits and instilling in him a mindset to get on at all costs. It seems though that he was a good on-base-percentage guy until Dusty got hold of him, and since then he's been worse every season under Dusty. I truly think Stubbs just needs a new Manager and he'll be an elite leadoff hitter.

Spot on. Not a guaranteed outcome but very plausible IMO. The current Drew Stubbs represents a massive organizational and managerial failure to properly develop their talent.

[Jamz]

He's been hitting the ball real well lately. Clutch hits, too. Stepping up since being sat.

[Ironman92]

Hits very well in Houston!

[Stray]

Could have put an end to a very good Cordero career. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Astros release him.

[ervinsm84]

Interesting stuff here IMO.

From 2010-current Drew Stubbs has went 0-4 or worse in a game 71 times....he started the next game 64 times (90.1%)

From 2010-current Chris Heisey has went 0-4 or worse 29 times....he started the next game 10 times (34.5%)

Drew Stubbs has went 0-4 or worse in back to back games 20 times since 2010......Chris Heisey has done it once.

Since Chris Heisey arrived in the big leagues he has had 148 starts.....Stubbs has had 337.


So at the date of that post (using the #s above)

Stubbs had an 0/4 or worse game 71/337 times started for 21.07%
Heisy has an 0/4 or worse game 29/148 times started for 19.6 %

Virtually identical on this metric

[Ironman92]

So at the date of that post (using the #s above)

Stubbs had an 0/4 or worse game 71/337 times started for 21.07%
Heisy has an 0/4 or worse game 29/148 times started for 19.6 %

Virtually identical on this metric

Point missed..... What's been the outcome for each player after having the sucky game. 90% starts to 35%

[Rotater Cuff]

Stubbs is a very good centerfielder. He's still a young player. it's would be foolish for the Reds to trade for another Centerfielder, as they wouldn't gain much on defense, and would lose his potential.

[Todd Gack]

Point missed..... What's been the outcome for each player after having the sucky game. 90% starts to 35%

So what?

[webbbj]

I wouldnt be a prisoner of the moment on Stubbs recent success. He still is who he is imo. Which is high strike out, low OBP, very good defensive CF.

He should still bat 7th or 8th or come off the bench. The reds should still look for some help out there. And he should be sitting against all righty's (except mabe against tbe ones he has shown success against).

He is fine starting <100 games a year, batting 7th or 8th. He can't handle playing everyday against pitching he cant handle. (mainly strong righties)

[Stray]

I like what I've seen from him this year regardless of what the stats look like. He's made swings that he never had in the bag last year, and he's gone the other way a lot. He's had about 3 horrific slumps when he was just totally lost and not seeing the ball, other than those times he's been serviceable. He also seems to be one of the most important players on our team, his splits in our wins/losses is unlike anything I've ever seen. When he's playing well we're winning.

He's still a weak link on the team offensively though, so if they were looking to upgrade a position I would think it'd be his.

[Trajinous]

How to deal with Stubbs is simple.

If Baker keeps putting him as a leadoff hitter, trade him for a real leadoff hitter.

If Baker puts him anywhere else in the lineup, keep him.

[Kingspoint]

So what?

His point was crystal clear. Stubbs is being force-fed starts on a grotesquely disproportionate basis to Heisey, when it' s clear that Stubbs is not improving based on how he has been used by Baker. Stubbs also doesn't offer anything "significantly" more defensively in CF. But, thanks for that intelligent response.

[ervinsm84]

Point missed..... What's been the outcome for each player after having the sucky game. 90% starts to 35%

They've basically been roughly equal players at the plate over the course of their career, but one of them had the raw tools and potential out of this world. Playing Stubbs more during 09-11 made perfect sense at the time. At this point in Stubbs career though, I don't really completely understand why he still has gotten such a heavy dose of the games started over heisy.

Really though, in an ideal world when Votto comes back, the Reds would just move Bruce to CF and take whatever defensive hit that comes with it (and I dont think it would be a dramatic drop off defensively)

Phillips 2b
Frazier LF
Votto 1b
Ludwick RF
Bruce CF
Rolen 3b
Cozart SS
Hanirocco C

[Captain13]

Here is my take on Drew Stubbs :bang: :confused: :angry: :bang: :eek: :clap: :thumbup: :angry: :bang: :shocked: :censored: :bang: :D :bang:

[sdwagers]

Stubbs is certainly not hurting his trade value with the last two nights clutch performances.

[P.E.R#14]

Stubbs is certainly not hurting his trade value with the last two nights clutch performances.

:thumbup: My senitments exactly. It may actually be in this thread, but for the last couple of weeks I've been hoping Stubbs would over-perform between the All-Star break and trade deadline. That wish is coming true, now if we can only find someone willing to take him off our hands....he is fast though!!

[Jamz]

In his last 10 games Stubbs is batting .361 with 8 runs, 8 RBI, 4 BB and 3 SB.

Maybe he was getting unlucky or battling injury earlier in the season. Obviously he's not as good as that statline shows, but he's also probably not as bad as this season suggests. I for one don't want to give up on him.

[Kingspoint]

... but one of them had the raw tools and potential out of this world. Drafts (trying to figure out a guy's "raw tools and potential") is a crap-shoot, at best. Half of all 1st Round picks never pan out, and that's 1st Round picks. "Potential" isn't worth much once they sign on the dotted line. A player's true skills will appear after that, and these have been Heisey's true skills:

172 BB's to 285 K's in the Minors compared to 220 BB's and 435 K's in the Minors for Stubbs in about the same number of plate appearances (within 10%).

Heisey had an .823 career Minor League OPS to Stubbs' .762.

Heisey also had 88 SB's w/ only 16 CS, compared to Stubbs' 121 SB's and 36 CS's, a worse ratio than Heisey's without a significant number of more SB's. Stubbs needed to be caught 20 more times in order to achieve 33 more SB's. That makes Heisey the much better base-stealer. What good is speed if you're getting caught too much taking away a runner off of the bases while adding an out to the inning?

Heisey's 817 Total Bases dwarfed Stubbs' 638 Total Bases in the Minors.

So, who has the real potential for 2012? Stubbs or Heisey?

I'd be giving Heisey more plate appearances than Stubbs, if only for the fact that Heisey is actually younger than Stubbs. There's no way that Stubbs has more potential than Heisey.

Some people want to point out that Stubbs is "coming on". While Stubbs is batting .300 in the second half of the season, Heisey is batting .333.

Heisey is being wasted, while Stubbs is being used too much.

[IamRV]

Drafts (trying to figure out a guy's "raw tools and potential") is a crap-shoot, at best. Half of all 1st Round picks never pan out, and that's 1st Round picks. "Potential" isn't worth much once they sign on the dotted line. A player's true skills will appear after that, and these have been Heisey's true skills:

172 BB's to 285 K's in the Minors compared to 220 BB's and 435 K's in the Minors for Stubbs in about the same number of plate appearances (within 10%).

Heisey had an .823 career Minor League OPS to Stubbs' .762.

Heisey also had 88 SB's w/ only 16 CS, compared to Stubbs' 121 SB's and 36 CS's, a worse ratio than Heisey's without a significant number of more SB's. Stubbs needed to be caught 20 more times in order to achieve 33 more SB's. That makes Heisey the much better base-stealer. What good is speed if you're getting caught too much taking away a runner off of the bases while adding an out to the inning?

Heisey's 817 Total Bases dwarfed Stubbs' 638 Total Bases in the Minors.

So, who has the real potential for 2012? Stubbs or Heisey?

I'd be giving Heisey more plate appearances than Stubbs, if only for the fact that Heisey is actually younger than Stubbs. There's no way that Stubbs has more potential than Heisey.

Some people want to point out that Stubbs is "coming on". While Stubbs is batting .300 in the second half of the season, Heisey is batting .333.

Heisey is being wasted, while Stubbs is being used too much.

Exactly. They should be a straight platoon situation in CF (Stubbs vs LHP) and penciled in the order at #2.

[ervinsm84]

Drafts (trying to figure out a guy's "raw tools and potential") is a crap-shoot, at best. Half of all 1st Round picks never pan out, and that's 1st Round picks. "Potential" isn't worth much once they sign on the dotted line. A player's true skills will appear after that, and these have been Heisey's true skills:

172 BB's to 285 K's in the Minors compared to 220 BB's and 435 K's in the Minors for Stubbs in about the same number of plate appearances (within 10%).

Heisey had an .823 career Minor League OPS to Stubbs' .762.

Heisey also had 88 SB's w/ only 16 CS, compared to Stubbs' 121 SB's and 36 CS's, a worse ratio than Heisey's without a significant number of more SB's. Stubbs needed to be caught 20 more times in order to achieve 33 more SB's. That makes Heisey the much better base-stealer. What good is speed if you're getting caught too much taking away a runner off of the bases while adding an out to the inning?

Heisey's 817 Total Bases dwarfed Stubbs' 638 Total Bases in the Minors.

So, who has the real potential for 2012? Stubbs or Heisey?

I'd be giving Heisey more plate appearances than Stubbs, if only for the fact that Heisey is actually younger than Stubbs. There's no way that Stubbs has more potential than Heisey.

Some people want to point out that Stubbs is "coming on". While Stubbs is batting .300 in the second half of the season, Heisey is batting .333.

Heisey is being wasted, while Stubbs is being used too much.

First things first. They're not even 90 days apart in age so if that's really a factor then wow. 10/4/84 STubbs Heisy 12/14/84


Second and I'll address this more in a second, but where did I ever say that Stubbs currently has more potential than Heisy. I specifically used the past tense "had" and in the next sentence even talked about 09-11 and talked about "at the time."



... but one of them had the raw tools and potential out of this world. Playing Stubbs more during 09-11 made perfect sense at the time. At this point in Stubbs career though, I don't really completely understand why he still has gotten such a heavy dose of the games started over heisy.




I think you missed the rest of my quote that addressed exactly what your're arguing against. I never said Stubbs has more potential than Heisy as of today. I was explaining that his scouting reports and his production level from 2010 made perfect sense to play Stubbs at that time.



I think you're missing my entire point. I'm not arguing Stubbs should be playing now as much he is. He should be splitting time with Heisy pending matchups. I think we both agree on that.

I never said Stubbs currently has more potential than Heisy. I was explaining why it made more sense for the Reds in 09, 10, 11 to be playing Stubbs more than Heisy, and that's bc at that time Stubbs was considered a much stronger prospect by our scouts. Add on Stubbs' productive 09 and 2010 seasons and it made perfect sense. Did it work out? Unfortunately no, but we can't go about evaluating all of the Reds decisions with 20/20 hindsight. To be fair, we need to consider the decision using the information the Reds had available at the time. And in the 2011 season, it made sense to stick with a struggling player like Stubbs after his 2010 full season in the bigs. At this point, though, we have enough of a sample to conclude a platoon is better.

Just for recall,

In 09 Stubbs had a 323/439/762 in 196 PA
In 09 Heisy was still splitting time between AA and AAA


In 10 Stubbs had a 329/444/773 in 583 PA with a 4.0 fWAR
In 10 Heisy had a 324/433/757 in 226 PA


At that point in time, Stubbs had produced over a larger sample, including his 2010 4.0 fWAR season which a 4 war from a 2nd year CF is pretty damn good
Thus, it was reasonable for the Reds to stick with Stubbs through the 2011 season based on his history and even more so when adding in his potential from his tools.


After Stubbs mediocre 2011 and Heisy's solid 2011 season
Stubbs 321/364/686 in 681 PA
Heisy 309/487/797 in 308 PAs


There was a decent argument for a platoon from day 1 of this 2012 season bc at this point, we have an entire new season of data and its becoming more likely Stubbs may not ever even return to 2010 production levels, let along improve on his 2010. I was torn on whether to platoon during ST, but after the first month or so, I thought a platoon was the best thing for these two. Now in July, I still think the same thing.


I'm sorry you got so caught up on a catch word like potential. I wasn't using it to excuse playing Stubbs now. I used it, bc it partially explains why he was playing in earlier seasons, and its not like he didnt have a very good 2010.


and fwiw, these are the 2012 #s. Which goes right back to what we both said. They should be platooning.
Stubbs 298/378/677 149 ISO and an 87 RC+
Heisy 316/ 382/ 699 109 ISO and an 86 RC+

[Wonderful Monds]

In his last 10 games Stubbs is batting .361 with 8 runs, 8 RBI, 4 BB and 3 SB.

Maybe he was getting unlucky or battling injury earlier in the season. Obviously he's not as good as that statline shows, but he's also probably not as bad as this season suggests. I for one don't want to give up on him.

It would appear you are on to something.
http://redlegnation.com/2012/07/25/the-coming-offensive-explosion/

[Jamz]

It would appear you are on to something.
http://redlegnation.com/2012/07/25/the-coming-offensive-explosion/

Personally I think that Stubbs, in his current form, over a full season should probably sit somewhere around a .255/.325/.400 slash line. Couple that with his above average defence and his elite level speed and he's really not a player you can give up on. Especially if you can turn his hit tool into a .275/.335+/.400+

A lot of people rag on him, and sometimes it's deserved, but I don't want to give up on him.

[Ironman92]

First things first. They're not even 90 days apart in age so if that's really a factor then wow. 10/4/84 STubbs Heisy 12/14/84


Second and I'll address this more in a second, but where did I ever say that Stubbs currently has more potential than Heisy. I specifically used the past tense "had" and in the next sentence even talked about 09-11 and talked about "at the time."





I think you missed the rest of my quote that addressed exactly what your're arguing against. I never said Stubbs has more potential than Heisy as of today. I was explaining that his scouting reports and his production level from 2010 made perfect sense to play Stubbs at that time.



I think you're missing my entire point. I'm not arguing Stubbs should be playing now as much he is. He should be splitting time with Heisy pending matchups. I think we both agree on that.

I never said Stubbs currently has more potential than Heisy. I was explaining why it made more sense for the Reds in 09, 10, 11 to be playing Stubbs more than Heisy, and that's bc at that time Stubbs was considered a much stronger prospect by our scouts. Add on Stubbs' productive 09 and 2010 seasons and it made perfect sense. Did it work out? Unfortunately no, but we can't go about evaluating all of the Reds decisions with 20/20 hindsight. To be fair, we need to consider the decision using the information the Reds had available at the time. And in the 2011 season, it made sense to stick with a struggling player like Stubbs after his 2010 full season in the bigs. At this point, though, we have enough of a sample to conclude a platoon is better.

Just for recall,

In 09 Stubbs had a 323/439/762 in 196 PA
In 09 Heisy was still splitting time between AA and AAA


In 10 Stubbs had a 329/444/773 in 583 PA with a 4.0 fWAR
In 10 Heisy had a 324/433/757 in 226 PA


At that point in time, Stubbs had produced over a larger sample, including his 2010 4.0 fWAR season which a 4 war from a 2nd year CF is pretty damn good
Thus, it was reasonable for the Reds to stick with Stubbs through the 2011 season based on his history and even more so when adding in his potential from his tools.


After Stubbs mediocre 2011 and Heisy's solid 2011 season
Stubbs 321/364/686 in 681 PA
Heisy 309/487/797 in 308 PAs


There was a decent argument for a platoon from day 1 of this 2012 season bc at this point, we have an entire new season of data and its becoming more likely Stubbs may not ever even return to 2010 production levels, let along improve on his 2010. I was torn on whether to platoon during ST, but after the first month or so, I thought a platoon was the best thing for these two. Now in July, I still think the same thing.


I'm sorry you got so caught up on a catch word like potential. I wasn't using it to excuse playing Stubbs now. I used it, bc it partially explains why he was playing in earlier seasons, and its not like he didnt have a very good 2010.


and fwiw, these are the 2012 #s. Which goes right back to what we both said. They should be platooning.
Stubbs 298/378/677 149 ISO and an 87 RC+
Heisy 316/ 382/ 699 109 ISO and an 86 RC+

Splitting time between AA and AAA winning the Reds minor league POY and top prospect 60 extra base hits and 21 SB.... .900 OPS FWIW

In 2011 Stubbs had 681 plate appearances with an OPS of .686 Heisey got 309 with a .797

We have to move on.

This thread has run it's course.

Go Reds!!!

[ervinsm84]

nvmd

[Stray]

Another big game tonight. Since Votto went down he's been one of a handful of players who have really stepped it up. We're not on this crazy winning streak without him.

[Todd Gack]

His point was crystal clear. Stubbs is being force-fed starts on a grotesquely disproportionate basis to Heisey, when it' s clear that Stubbs is not improving based on how he has been used by Baker. Stubbs also doesn't offer anything "significantly" more defensively in CF. But, thanks for that intelligent response.

What were you saying?

My 'so what' point was that this team isn't winning or losing anymore games based on who's paying a more sucky CF. But hey, let's complain about two mediocre guys while everyone stays quiet on a guy making 50 million while misplaying balls in the OF and vastly underperforming below his talent level.

[Cant Touch This]

What were you saying?

My 'so what' point was that this team isn't winning or losing anymore games based on who's paying a more sucky CF. But hey, let's complain about two mediocre guys while everyone stays quiet on a guy making 50 million while misplaying balls in the OF and vastly underperforming below his talent level.

I really, really want Jay Bruce to succeed. The raw talent is undeniable and when he is on his game, he's one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.

But it's hard to argue with your position here. Since May 14, when his season average was .300 and OPS was .973, he has been anything but dangerous. The Reds have played 64 games since May 15 and Bruce has gone hitless in 30 of them. (32 actually, but two of those he didn't start.) His longest hitting streak in that stretch is 5 games, and even that was only 6 for 17 with 2 RBIs and one run scored.

He's had only 11 multi-hit games in those 64, and only three of them were 3 hits or more. He has only 22 extra base hits (9 HRs, 13 doubles) and has walked 31 times vs. 59 Ks. His average has dropped from .300 to .242 and his OPS is down to .803.

It's been a long and steady slide for our All-Star outfielder and I'm sure he's more frustrated than the fans are. He's way overdue for one of his torrid streaks, but I certainly wish he could figure out how to channel those spurts of greatness into a longer span of consistency.

[Ironman92]

This thread is now about Drew Gehrig.

Drew is helping us win games and today will be his 30th game played in a row (2100 short)

His career long consecutive game played:

79
76
42
34
30
30
29
25
23
22

10 streaks over 20 consecutive in almost exactly 3 years of play. Very impressive.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Enjoying his recent hot streak very much, but also fully aware that it's fool's gold.

[Ironman92]

Enjoying his recent hot streak very much, but also fully aware that it's fool's gold.

No way man he's all the way up to .230

[sdwagers]

Drew Stubbs gained a ton trade value on the last week- just sayin'

[R_Webb18]

Drew Stubbs gained a ton trade value on the last week- just sayin'

it didn't hurt but at same time the last 3 games it was started by leftie and everyone knows he destroys them.

[Wonderful Monds]

Drew Stubbs gained a ton trade value on the last week- just sayin'

I would actually kind of doubt it. He's been good the last week, but he's torching LHP and bad teams. Even after this torrid streak he's been on, he's still hitting .226 for July.

[R_Webb18]

I would actually kind of doubt it. He's been good the last week, but he's torching LHP and bad teams. Even after this torrid streak he's been on, he's still hitting .226 for July.

its amazing how sad that kinda is and people still don't wanna upgrade. he's great at a lot of things but hitting is not 1 of them.

[Wonderful Monds]

its amazing how sad that kinda is and people still don't wanna upgrade. he's great at a lot of things but hitting is not 1 of them.

I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of where he is at right now, and where he was the rest of the season. I won't be too terribly if he's not upgraded on if the price is too high, but yeah, he is still the area to upgrade on this team.

He's not bad. I think he still has more 2010's in him. But he can be upgraded for sure.

[R_Webb18]

I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of where he is at right now, and where he was the rest of the season. I won't be too terribly if he's not upgraded on if the price is too high, but yeah, he is still the area to upgrade on this team.

He's not bad. I think he still has more 2010's in him. But he can be upgraded for sure.

yes i agree. im not saying sell the farm system but to flat out say i hope they do nothing is silly imo.

[Wonderful Monds]

yes i agree. im not saying sell the farm system but to flat out say i hope they do nothing is silly imo.

Yeah, to say things like trading Stubbs straight up for Choo is overpaying or unacceptable is a bit ridiculous, IMO. Some of us have a short memory span here.

[Jamz]

I'm still in the camp that doesn't want to give up on Stubbs. The tools are there and the athletic ability can't be replaced. When he's on he looks like he could be an all-star CFer.

Maybe it's just me, but I still have faith that he can develop into a decent #1 or #2 hitter. All through the minors he had decent to good OBP (.350+) and if you look at his line this year you can see he's had really bad luck with his BABIP (his lowest BABIP in the MLB is .325...he's got .289 right now which is a .036 difference...which is pretty significant.) Given his speed and age there's no real reason for his BABIP to have shot down so much given his GB% has gone way up and his IFH% is almost the same as last year (where he had his highest BABIP of his career.) His o-swing% and contact% are also the best of his career right now (outside of 2009 where he only played 43 games.)

I think he could easily be a .265/.335/.450 guy.

[sdwagers]

Stubbs strikes out about a third of his ABs... with the sixty or so games remaining - a conservative estimate would put have him strike out about as much as he did in 2010. ...

I want him to do well... but I see him as a .240-.250 hitter that strikes out 150+ times a year with 20 HRs... His MLB lifetime OBP is abut .320 and he's under that this year. he's just entering his prime... I guess he could improve... but I 'm not buying that just yet.

[Jamz]

Stubbs strikes out about a third of his ABs... with the sixty or so games remaining - a conservative estimate would put have him strike out about as much as he did in 2010. ...

I want him to do well... but I see him as a .240-.250 hitter that strikes out 150+ times a year with 20 HRs... His MLB lifetime OBP is abut .320 and he's under that this year. he's just entering his prime... I guess he could improve... but I 'm not buying that just yet.

Actually his K% is 27 which is a lower rate than both 2010 (28.8) and 2011 (30.1) (again, his o-swing% is the lowest of his career and his contact % is the highest of his career.) This indicates improvements at the plate which is why I said that he's been so unlucky.

All of his peripherals indicate that he should actually be having the best year of his career at the plate.

[sdwagers]

Actually his K% is 27 which is a lower rate than both 2010 (28.8) and 2011 (30.1) (again, his o-swing% is the lowest of his career and his contact % is the highest of his career.) This indicates improvements at the plate which is why I said that he's been so unlucky.

All of his peripherals indicate that he should actually be having the best year of his career at the plate.

3% reduction is 15 strikeouts - improvement - yes, significant - not sure yet.

I hope someday I can say "I was wrong about" Drew Stubbs. His last week has undoubted been one his best as Red - but it was against sub-par teams...

[Larkin88]

Actually his K% is 27 which is a lower rate than both 2010 (28.8) and 2011 (30.1) (again, his o-swing% is the lowest of his career and his contact % is the highest of his career.) This indicates improvements at the plate which is why I said that he's been so unlucky.

All of his peripherals indicate that he should actually be having the best year of his career at the plate.

See, I would almost argue that after nearly setting the record for K's, Stubbs put way too much pressure on himself to do anything but strikeout earlier this year. Sure he's achieved a marginal improvement in his K rate, but almost all of his other peripherals have remained right in line with his career... except his BABIP has decresed and his isolated power have declined (relative to his 2009 and 2010 and discounting his all around abysmal 2011).

I think Stubbs (at least for the first half of the year) was really shortening up his approach to try and put the ball in play. The reality is, he hasn't been exceptional when he's done that. He is not a terrific bunter in spite of his speed and when he is making his contact now, he's hitting into substantially fewer line drives that even he can't leg out.

His sweet spot has gotta be somewhere in the middle of swinging for power and taking a smart approach at the plate. Obviously that's the tango tons of baseball players go through. I definitely like him on the Reds club, though I've shared other's reservations with trying to force him into the 1 or 2 hole just because of his speed.

[Jamz]

His peripherals indicate an xBABIP of .354. His approach has been way better this year he has been ridiculously unlucky.

[fielder's choice]

I have a hard time understanding how anyone who has watched him hit this year can say he's been unlucky. I love stats, but I have no use for BABIP. Frankly, I think it's stupid.

[Larkin88]

I have a hard time understanding how anyone who has watched him hit this year can say he's been unlucky. I love stats, but I have no use for BABIP. Frankly, I think it's stupid.

It's all about taking it in the context of his other peripherals. I totally agree and, xBABIP aside, I'm not willing to write his numbers off to just "bad luck" . I tend to be more in the "Stubbs is what he is" camp and only wish he could hit lower in the order.

In any event, his poor BABIP might just be evidence that, in fact, he doesn't merely need to put the ball in play to leg out a base hit as many assumed would be the case. (myself included) Even assuming he's hit into his fair share of bad luck this year, the BABIP drop is severe enough that luck can't be the sole contributor.

His poor bunting skills are a head scratcher in the "put it in play" conversation, but that's applicable to just about everyone on this team.

All things considered (speed, defense, occasional power), he's worth his spot on the 25 man roster in my opinion. I just think Dusty (and perhaps the fans) expect a little too much out of him at the top of the order. It's frustrating with the tools he has, so I hope Hamilton can excel where Stubbs has struggled a little bit.

[Jamz]

I'm not all that big of a proponent of watching numbers over actual play, but batted ball rates tend to even out and offer a pretty good indication of how a hitter should be performing based on their profiles. It doesn't always line-up, but even watching the games you can tell that Stubbs has gotten unlucky. I can think of at least 5 times off the top of my head he's been called out when he was actually safe, and often unfortunately just hitting right at the fielder. Believe it or not luck plays a decent part in batted balls on the ground.

If you assume that his xBABIP is correct based on his batted ball profile Stubbs should actually be hitting .276 right now which would have him at an OBP of .340. Even if you just take his career average BABIP of .326 (which includes his horrible BABIP this year) you end up with an avg. of .260 and OBP of .325. Both of which play well at his position considering his glove and power.

Since the all-star game he's got a slash-line of .298/.359/.509. Is he getting luckier? Maybe. His confidence should be up on this though and hopefully his BABIP can normalize and we'll see a decent full season out of him, but more importantly, a monster finish to the season.

Also as far as luck and his BABIP are concerned with an xBABIP of .354 it indicates that the regression is mostly luck based. For what it's worth he's hitting .333 when bunting this season which is quite good.

[fielder's choice]

Good hitters hit the ball hard, so naturally more of the balls they put in play go for hits. Stubbs hits a lot of lazy fly balls, and soft groundballs. He's not unlucky, he's just a bad hitter.

[Jamz]

Good hitters hit the ball hard, so naturally more of the balls they put in play go for hits. Stubbs hits a lot of lazy fly balls, and soft groundballs. He's not unlucky, he's just a bad hitter.

This is really oversimplifying the way that hitting works. There's obviously a difference between a line-drive and a lazy fly ball as well as grounders and infield hits, etc., but that's taken into account in xBABIP, so it really doesn't explain his extremely low BABIP (for him) based on his xBABIP.

[fielder's choice]

I'll be honest, I don't know what that means. However, I'm fairly certain that Stubbs can't hit. Going 0-32 isn't luck, that's skill.

[Jamz]

I'll be honest, I don't know what that means. However, I'm fairly certain that Stubbs can't hit. Going 0-32 isn't luck, that's skill.

It just means that Stubbs has been really unlucky this year. Ultimately xBABIP is his expected batting average on balls in play -- it's an advanced statistic that takes into account how hard he hits the ball (generally hard hits are considered to be line drives), where the ball distribution is, etc. and creates the BABIP one should expect from the player in question based on his batted ball profile.

Right now there's a pretty significant gap between Stubbs' actual BABIP and his xBABIP which suggests that he's been very unlucky as BABIP and xBABIP are statistics that tend to, over time, be very close. So either his batted ball profile is going to drop, or his BABIP should normalize which would see a big uptick in his actual production.

Giving up on Stubbs now would be pretty foolish IMO. Based on everything he's done so far, and this athletic talents, he should be capable of putting up a pretty positive slash-line that would have him as one of the better CFs in the league.

[Ironman92]

Throw some of those metrics at me for Todd Frazier.....tell me how lucky or unlucky he is.

[bleedsred]

The recent hot streak gives a glimpse of what Stubbs could be, very hard to give up on a guy with his athletic ability. I as much as anyone on this board can be very frustrated when watching Stubbs, but it makes you wonder why keep putting he and Cozart at the top of the lineup with all the added pressure when they are obviously struggling to perform. Then you look at his speed and wonder why he fails to be able to execute a bunt, seems to me it should have been a point of emphasis as he rose through the minors. I guess what I am getting at is that it seems the Reds system has let Stubbs down a bit....where he hits in the lineup and being able to execute basic fundamentals such as bunting should be questions Baker/Jacoby/minor league hitting instructors should have to deal with. I think moving him down the order and getting a guy like Pierre to platoon with him would be best case scenario instead of overpaying for a guy who has defensive limitations.

[fielder's choice]

He is what he is. He's had plenty of time to prove that he can't produce. He's 27. He's looked good the last week against what are essentially minor league teams. It's fools gold. He's not suddenly going to blossom into a good, or even a decent, hitter. We best find us a centerfielder because he is not the answer.

[rgslone]

The recent hot streak gives a glimpse of what Stubbs could be, very hard to give up on a guy with his athletic ability. I as much as anyone on this board can be very frustrated when watching Stubbs, but it makes you wonder why keep putting he and Cozart at the top of the lineup with all the added pressure when they are obviously struggling to perform. Then you look at his speed and wonder why he fails to be able to execute a bunt, seems to me it should have been a point of emphasis as he rose through the minors. I guess what I am getting at is that it seems the Reds system has let Stubbs down a bit....where he hits in the lineup and being able to execute basic fundamentals such as bunting should be questions Baker/Jacoby/minor league hitting instructors should have to deal with. I think moving him down the order and getting a guy like Pierre to platoon with him would be best case scenario instead of overpaying for a guy who has defensive limitations.

Well said. I think Stubbs frustrates the heck out of most of us - but, as you stated, he's not being put in a position that gives him the best chance to succeed. In my opinion, he should never bat higher than 6th in the lineup against a RH pitcher - period. Maybe he could against LH pitching, I don't know. But the fact is he simply can't make good contact or bunt very well and he's going on 28 yrs. old, so it's a little late to do much about it. He is what he is - great speed/good defense/good power. If used correctly those are some wonderful attributes to have on your team. Just put him in a position where his attributes fit - hitting 6th, 7th or 8th. In those spots he could drive in some runs with his power and when he does get on base he could cause a little havoc and steal a base to get himself in position to be driven in. Of course, he'll still strike out enough to make Adam Dunn blush, but it won't hurt nearly as much.

[Larkin88]

It just means that Stubbs has been really unlucky this year. Ultimately xBABIP is his expected batting average on balls in play -- it's an advanced statistic that takes into account how hard he hits the ball (generally hard hits are considered to be line drives), where the ball distribution is, etc. and creates the BABIP one should expect from the player in question based on his batted ball profile.

Right now there's a pretty significant gap between Stubbs' actual BABIP and his xBABIP which suggests that he's been very unlucky as BABIP and xBABIP are statistics that tend to, over time, be very close. So either his batted ball profile is going to drop, or his BABIP should normalize which would see a big uptick in his actual production.

Here's a nice ORG thread (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97173) that you might enjoy.

[Jamz]

He is what he is. He's had plenty of time to prove that he can't produce. He's 27. He's looked good the last week against what are essentially minor league teams. It's fools gold. He's not suddenly going to blossom into a good, or even a decent, hitter. We best find us a centerfielder because he is not the answer.

Just like Bautista, Kemp and Jones? There are plenty of hitters, even recently, that have just taken longer to put it all together. Stubbs may be one of those players. He has the talent...and he's been very unlucky this year. Right now he's on a tear that has him playing on a level with the best of them.

[EMAW]

On pace for 20 Homers and 35 steals

[fielder's choice]

Just like Bautista, Kemp and Jones? There are plenty of hitters, even recently, that have just taken longer to put it all together. Stubbs may be one of those players. He has the talent...and he's been very unlucky this year. Right now he's on a tear that has him playing on a level with the best of them.

Those players have always been significantly better than Stubbs is right now.

[Jamz]

Those players have always been significantly better than Stubbs is right now.

Uh...? Maybe we're talking about different players.

The only one that was better was Kemp and he was inconsistently better at best. The year before he broke out in 2011 he had a wRC+ of 101 and was a 0.4 WAR player, his career high WAR before last year was 5.2. Bautista wasn't even an every day player on any team and had a career mark of 96 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR before joining the Jays. Jones, even including this season, has a career average 104 wRC+ and has never posted more than 2.9 WAR in a season.

Meanwhile Stubbs has a career high of 110 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR and was still a 2.6 WAR player last year while approaching a career average of 100 wRC+ despite his struggles last year and his horrible luck this year.

So to summarize...no none of them were significantly better than Stubbs before 'breaking out.'

[R_Webb18]

so your saying the time stubbs is good he will cost to much?

[Jamz]

so your saying the time stubbs is good he will cost to much?

Why would he cost too much? He has arbitration next year I think (IIRC) and he's had a horribly unlucky year. I believe we have control of him for another few years after that so I don't see the issue.

Either his luck evens out, or his peripherals drop and he is the player we think he is. Still, he will be a 2+ WAR CFer this year who hits 20/30 most likely. That alone is valuable, but if his luck evens out chances are he becomes a 4+ WAR CFer.

[Cant Touch This]

Why would he cost too much? He has arbitration next year I think (IIRC) and he's had a horribly unlucky year. I believe we have control of him for another few years after that so I don't see the issue.

Either his luck evens out, or his peripherals drop and he is the player we think he is. Still, he will be a 2+ WAR CFer this year who hits 20/30 most likely. That alone is valuable, but if his luck evens out chances are he becomes a 4+ WAR CFer.

I'm also in the Stubbs camp. He brings a level of excitement to the game that guys like Pierre, Victorino, DeJesus, (insert any other decent OBP with little pop guy here) just can't provide. Plus his range in CF is undeniable and he has already demonstrated he has the arm to gun a guy down at the plate.

However, because of his proclivity to amass a high number of Ks and fall into extended slumps, that degree of excitement is often tempered by plate appearances that suck the wind right out of the sails. I don't know if that is ever going to change, so yes, I think he is replaceable. Just not with Juan Freakin' Pierre.

Give me Dexter Fowler and then we'll talk. Otherwise, you can keep the other guys.

One last though: If the Reds were committed to bringing in a high OPB left handed hitter who plays CF, I could buy into the strategy to platoon said player with Stubbs vs. RH/LH pitching. At least for the remainder of this season and post season. Long term, I don't like it.

[BLEEDS]

Can anyone explain his .795 OPS while batting second?

Edit: up to .808 on the year, .822 career

I'm guessing he's going nowhere, we just need a real leadoff hitter...

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[P.E.R#14]

You can drag stats from anywhere and make them appeal to your side of the argument very easily. Maybe he bats .080 on Tuesday-day games and .435 on Saturday games at 4:05PM. Stats are overrated. When every potential trade includes a centerfielder, it's obivous that not only half of redszone agrees Stubbs is shotty, the front office does as well.



Go Reds!

[joshua]

You can drag stats from anywhere and make them appeal to your side of the argument very easily. Maybe he bats .080 on Tuesday-day games and .435 on Saturday games at 4:05PM. Stats are overrated. When every potential trade includes a centerfielder, it's obivous that not only half of redszone agrees Stubbs is shotty, the front office does as well.



Go Reds!

Nobody can ignore stats like this: .170/.226/.321 (27.7% strikeout rate) with men on base. His monstrous road trip where he went on the biggest tear of his career? Even including that he's only hitting .239/.283/.467 for July. Anybody who cab defend that is lying to themselves.

2010: .255/.329/.444
2011: .243/.321/.364
2012: .233/.301/.403

The truth is he is actually getting worse. This is a guy who after coming off a season where he racked up the second most strikeouts in major league history said he wasn't going to do anything to change his approach. Some on here defended him, saying he inly said that to get reporters off of his back and was actually working on adjusting...but the numbers prove otherwise. He's a fourth outfielder who K's, 27-30% of the time, can't get on base and for some reason still gets more plate appearances than nearly everyone on the roster. I don't understand how people don't think that's a problem. You're right, Reds have been rumored to be in on every single available CF for a reason, and that reason is that they don't think Stubbs is ever going to get it.

And if, like some on here have suggested, he's finally starting to come around because hes afraid of losing his job, that makes me even more mad. If that's the case, trade him. Hell, send him to Louisville and keep him there the rest of his career I don't care. If we are going to have a horrible bat in CF, I at least want one that wants to win every day and tries even when he's not at risk of losing his job.

[BLEEDS]

You can drag stats from anywhere and make them appeal to your side of the argument very easily. Maybe he bats .080 on Tuesday-day games and .435 on Saturday games at 4:05PM. Stats are overrated. When every potential trade includes a centerfielder, it's obivous that not only half of redszone agrees Stubbs is shotty, the front office does as well.



Go Reds!

Key word "potential"...
Juan Pierre in centerfield was a pipedream/smoke screen...

Victorino, I didn't think he was a huge upgrade over Stubbs, all things considered.

I haven't seen either of those get past the rumor stage.

As far as stats - yes you can look at various stats, some of them are telling of actual ability/trends/luck/etc.. While others are just to be put on the back of bubblegum cards. Unfortunately the latter seems to be where most people focus their attention when trying to "analyze" a player...

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[P.E.R#14]

Nobody can ignore stats like this: .170/.226/.321 (27.7% strikeout rate) with men on base. His monstrous road trip where he went on the biggest tear of his career? Even including that he's only hitting .239/.283/.467 for July. Anybody who cab defend that is lying to themselves.

2010: .255/.329/.444
2011: .243/.321/.364
2012: .233/.301/.403

The truth is he is actually getting worse. This is a guy who after coming off a season where he racked up the second most strikeouts in major league history said he wasn't going to do anything to change his approach. Some on here defended him, saying he inly said that to get reporters off of his back and was actually working on adjusting...but the numbers prove otherwise. He's a fourth outfielder who K's, 27-30% of the time, can't get on base and for some reason still gets more plate appearances than nearly everyone on the roster. I don't understand how people don't think that's a problem. You're right, Reds have been rumored to be in on every single available CF for a reason, and that reason is that they don't think Stubbs is ever going to get it.

And if, like some on here have suggested, he's finally starting to come around because hes afraid of losing his job, that makes me even more mad. If that's the case, trade him. Hell, send him to Louisville and keep him there the rest of his career I don't care. If we are going to have a horrible bat in CF, I at least want one that wants to win every day and tries even when he's not at risk of losing his job.

Yes, this is the most childish response ever, but it's exactly how your post made me feel!!!!


:beerme::jump::KoolAid::rockband::usa:

[Jamz]

Nobody can ignore stats like this: .170/.226/.321 (27.7% strikeout rate) with men on base. His monstrous road trip where he went on the biggest tear of his career? Even including that he's only hitting .239/.283/.467 for July. Anybody who cab defend that is lying to themselves.

2010: .255/.329/.444
2011: .243/.321/.364
2012: .233/.301/.403

The truth is he is actually getting worse.

Those slashlines don't show regression. They are a result of his batted ball profile and the type of luck he's getting. His batted ball profile suggest that he's been improving at the plate -- he's lowering his strikeout rate, increasing his contact and lowering his swinging at balls out of the zone. However, he has had incredibly bad luck which makes his statistics look worse than they should (he's still a 100 wRC+ player with stellar defence on his way to another 20 HR, 30 SB, 90+ run season.)


You're right, Reds have been rumored to be in on every single available CF for a reason, and that reason is that they don't think Stubbs is ever going to get it.

Actually, there's nothing but speculation. That's all it is -- rumours. Have the head office types come out and said they're looking for a CFer and hoping to trade Stubbs? Nope.


And if, like some on here have suggested, he's finally starting to come around because hes afraid of losing his job, that makes me even more mad. If that's the case, trade him. Hell, send him to Louisville and keep him there the rest of his career I don't care. If we are going to have a horrible bat in CF, I at least want one that wants to win every day and tries even when he's not at risk of losing his job.

Well, not only is he not a horrible bat but he hasn't changed anything -- luck is just normalizing. The reason that we're seeing an increase in his performance is because more of his balls are falling into play and he's getting on base (where he can steal and help us win games.) Again, as has been pointed out many times, batted ball profiles tend to even out the luck over a full season and it shouldn't be any different here. All things considered, if he can bring his BABIP back up to .320+ he'll finish the season hitting .250-.260 with an OBP of .315-.325, 20+ HRs, 30+ steals and a whole whack of runs and he still has room for improvement. He's not an asset worth giving up on given how long we have him under control, his cheap contract, and his potential as well as current contributions.

[P.E.R#14]

The type of luck he's getting? WHAT? SERIOUSLY? LUCK? :bang:

Hi Mrs. Stubbs, sorry we're being mean to your son.

[Jamz]

The type of luck he's getting? WHAT? SERIOUSLY? LUCK? :bang:

Hi Mrs. Stubbs, sorry we're being mean to your son.

:confused:

At least you can continue to have a mature discussion. If you don't understand the statistics that's fine -- but there's no need for that kind of devolution.

[joshua]

1,700 major league at bats goes far beyond anything bad luck could possibly effect. He is what he is. Those are his stats for three major league seasons. I know Reds fans are supposed to love guys with hustle, but c'mon. Is he an above average defender? Yes. Would he make a good pinch runner? Yes. Would he make a decent 4th OF? Yes. Should he be starting every day or batting anywhere above 7th ever? Absolutely not. There's no defending him hitting first or second on any basis outside of an emergency.

[fielder's choice]

^This. It's pretty silly to bring up luck when you're dealing with 1700 AB's. Also could we merge the Stubbs threads, mods?

[Jamz]

1,700 major league at bats goes far beyond anything bad luck could possibly effect. He is what he is. Those are his stats for three major league seasons. I know Reds fans are supposed to love guys with hustle, but c'mon. Is he an above average defender? Yes. Would he make a good pinch runner? Yes. Would he make a decent 4th OF? Yes. Should he be starting every day or batting anywhere above 7th ever? Absolutely not. There's no defending him hitting first or second on any basis outside of an emergency.

He's had one year where he was a well above average player (2010) and he's had one year where he was literally a league average player (2011) and this year, assuming luck normalizes, he'll be an above average player again. Just looking at his slash-line doesn't really show the whole story with Stubbs -- which is that, when he's playing well he's an above average player and when he's not playing well, or getting really unlucky, he's a league average player.


^This. It's pretty silly to bring up luck when you're dealing with 1700 AB's. Also could we merge the Stubbs threads, mods?

We're only talking about luck in reference to this one season. He has had one and a half great seasons (2009, 2010), he's had one really average season (last year), and this year he's been really unlucky otherwise his numbers would look very, very similar to 2010 (in which he was 4 WAR player, well above average.)

So why is it that we are ignoring the good half of his 1700 ABs and only looking at the negatives?

[P.E.R#14]

:confused:

At least you can continue to have a mature discussion. If you don't understand the statistics that's fine -- but there's no need for that kind of devolution.

The statistics of luck? Luck and Stubbs have one thing in common, luck rhymes with his ability as a ball player.

You're right, not mature, whatever, I thought it was funny (Mrs. Stubbs ;)) You're arguing LUCK! Where do luck and skill divide? Explain skill vs. luck? I can take 100 hacks at the plate and get lucky, but it doesn't give me skill. I assume you think Stubbs has skill (which he does) so what percentage of plate apperances are skill and how many are bad luck (has he had good luck in any ABs)? Now take some time before you answer, because you could have him as a .400 batter if you're not careful.

Also, do you keep a player who continues to have bad luck?

[Jamz]

The statistics of luck? Luck and Stubbs have one thing in common, luck rhymes with his ability as a ball player.

You're right, not mature, whatever, I thought it was funny (Mrs. Stubbs ;)) You're arguing LUCK! Where do luck and skill divide? Explain skill vs. luck? I can take 100 hacks at the plate and get lucky, but it doesn't give me skill. I assume you think Stubbs has skill (which he does) so what percentage of plate apperances are skill and how many are bad luck (has he had good luck in any ABs)? Now take some time before you answer, because you could have him as a .400 batter if you're not careful.

Also, do you keep a player who continues to have bad luck?

He's had one year of bad luck. You're looking at literally only half of his at bats and calling him a bad player. He's shown (2009, 2010) that he can be a very good player (well above average) and he's shown that he can have a down year (2011.) Strictly speaking of this year his batted ball profile suggests that he should be hitting around .270, OBPing at around .340 and then whatever else he brings to the table is gravy.

If you actually read the posts that I already discussed his luck in you wouldn't need to be so condescending, but if you want to take a gander I'll gather them all and put them in one post for you:


All through the minors he had decent to good OBP (.350+) and if you look at his line this year you can see he's had really bad luck with his BABIP (his lowest BABIP in the MLB is .325...he's got .289 right now which is a .036 difference...which is pretty significant.) Given his speed and age there's no real reason for his BABIP to have shot down so much given his GB% has gone way up and his IFH% is almost the same as last year (where he had his highest BABIP of his career.) His o-swing% and contact% are also the best of his career right now (outside of 2009 where he only played 43 games.)

His K% is 27 which is a lower rate than both 2010 (28.8) and 2011 (30.1) (again, his o-swing% is the lowest of his career and his contact % is the highest of his career.) This indicates improvements at the plate which is why I said that he's been so unlucky.

I'm not all that big of a proponent of watching numbers over actual play, but batted ball rates tend to even out and offer a pretty good indication of how a hitter should be performing based on their profiles. It doesn't always line-up, but even watching the games you can tell that Stubbs has gotten unlucky. I can think of at least 5 times off the top of my head he's been called out when he was actually safe, and often unfortunately just hitting right at the fielder. Believe it or not luck plays a decent part in batted balls on the ground.

If you assume that his xBABIP is correct based on his batted ball profile Stubbs should actually be hitting .276 right now which would have him at an OBP of .340. Even if you just take his career average BABIP of .326 (which includes his horrible BABIP this year) you end up with an avg. of .260 and OBP of .325. Both of which play well at his position considering his glove and power.

Since the all-star game he's got a slash-line of .298/.359/.509. Is he getting luckier? Maybe. His confidence should be up on this though and hopefully his BABIP can normalize and we'll see a decent full season out of him, but more importantly, a monster finish to the season.

Also as far as luck and his BABIP are concerned with an xBABIP of .354 it indicates that the regression is mostly luck based. For what it's worth he's hitting .333 when bunting this season which is quite good.

It's not as simple as just saying 'this many plate appearances were luck this many were skill.' The game is combination of luck and skill which is why advanced metrics have been created and have been so successful because they tend to even out over time and be quite accurate.

[P.E.R#14]

He's had one year of bad luck. You're looking at literally only half of his at bats and calling him a bad player. He's shown (2009, 2010) that he can be a very good player (well above average) and he's shown that he can have a down year (2011.) Strictly speaking of this year his batted ball profile suggests that he should be hitting around .270, OBPing at around .340 and then whatever else he brings to the table is gravy.

If you actually read the posts that I already discussed his luck in you wouldn't need to be so condescending, but if you want to take a gander I'll gather them all and put them in one post for you:



It's not as simple as just saying 'this many plate appearances were luck this many were skill.' The game is combination of luck and skill which is why advanced metrics have been created and have been so successful because they tend to even out over time and be quite accurate.


I read your posts prior to my condescension. I just can't justify two years of poor performance with bad luck. Clearly you can, so I wish you and your son the best! (Sorry, could NOT resist!) All it comes down to is Go Reds! I ain't mad at ya, ain't got nothin but love for ya. Do your thing boy!

[Wonderful Monds]

1,700 major league at bats goes far beyond anything bad luck could possibly effect. He is what he is. Those are his stats for three major league seasons. I know Reds fans are supposed to love guys with hustle, but c'mon. Is he an above average defender? Yes. Would he make a good pinch runner? Yes. Would he make a decent 4th OF? Yes. Should he be starting every day or batting anywhere above 7th ever? Absolutely not. There's no defending him hitting first or second on any basis outside of an emergency.

Part of those 1700 ABs include 2010 in which he was a very good player.

[Jamz]

Obviously management doesn't think he's worth giving up on. :)

[joshua]

He's had one year where he was a well above average player (2010) and he's had one year where he was literally a league average player (2011) and this year, assuming luck normalizes, he'll be an above average player again. Just looking at his slash-line doesn't really show the whole story with Stubbs -- which is that, when he's playing well he's an above average player and when he's not playing well, or getting really unlucky, he's a league average player


200+ strikeouts is league average?

When ANY player is playing well they're above average. The problem is his stretches of 30-40 at bats where he gets two hits. Those are far more common than his week and a half spurts of 4 homers and batting .360.

Like I said, Stubbs is an ok player. I have a problem with him getting more at bats than any other player on the team and playing him every single day. He hits .170 with men on base and there are people who want to bat him 2nd every day? If he only played against lefties I would love him. He cant hit right handed hitters, cant hit with men on base and cant take a walk. He's regressed every year since coming up and has a horrible time making adjustments. Those are all facts. I will thoroughly enjoy the day when Stubbs is either platooned or bats 7th everyday. Until then I'll just sit back and watch him strikeout time after time in front of Votto and groan.

[Jamz]

200+ strikeouts is league average?

200 strikeouts means what? I'd say grounding into a double play is, in general, much worse than a strikeout. A strikeout is no worse than popping up to the infield, or grounding out without advancing a runner.


When ANY player is playing well they're above average. The problem is his stretches of 30-40 at bats where he gets two hits. Those are far more common than his week and a half spurts of 4 homers and batting .360.

Well, again, you're ignoring the fact that for about half of his at bats in the major leagues he's been a well above-average player in the MLB. Even last year, which most agree was a bad year for him at the plate, he was a league average player (2.6 WAR).


Like I said, Stubbs is an ok player. I have a problem with him getting more at bats than any other player on the team and playing him every single day. He hits .170 with men on base and there are people who want to bat him 2nd every day? If he only played against lefties I would love him. He cant hit right handed hitters, cant hit with men on base and cant take a walk. He's regressed every year since coming up and has a horrible time making adjustments. Those are all facts. I will thoroughly enjoy the day when Stubbs is either platooned or bats 7th everyday. Until then I'll just sit back and watch him strikeout time after time in front of Votto and groan.

Those are not facts at all; it's like you haven't read the topic at all. As I've posted before Stubbs has actually improved almost all of his peripherals this year and has really just been unlucky. His contact rate is the highest of his career, his swinging at balls outside of the zone is the lowest of his career, his ground ball rate is the highest of his career and his HR/FB% is the highest of his career. All of his peripherals suggest a season that should be as good, if not better, than his 2010 year. The difference this year? Luck. Oh, and he has the lowest strikeout rate of his career.

Also I have no idea what you are talking about when saying he can't take a walk. He's always been above league average with his plate discipline and taking walks.

[rgslone]

In my opinion, the biggest problem in regard to Stubbs - and the reason he instills so much frustration in the fans - is the fact that he's miscast as a top of the order hitter. Some may say he would be ok hitting there against LH pitchers, but I think it's an idea that just needs to be given up on once and for all. He simply should not hit higher than 6th in any MLB lineup - period. If you hit him where his skill set fits (simply being fast isn't enough to be a top of the order hitter), then I think his defense & power combination might play pretty well, and I think fans would not see him as such an issue. When you have maybe the best hitter in baseball hitting 3rd for your team, it gets a little hard for fans to continue to watch the swing and miss parade in front of him over and over.

So, I say until the Reds have a better replacement (e.g., Hamilton) just let Stubbs be what he is. He's going on 28 yrs. old, he's not going to change, and he's going to strikeout - a lot! But at the bottom of the lineup - especially against LH pitchers - his speed/power combo can occasionally make some things happen, and he can continue to play good defense up the middle.

[Jamz]

In my opinion, the biggest problem in regard to Stubbs - and the reason he instills so much frustration in the fans - is the fact that he's miscast as a top of the order hitter. Some may say he would be ok hitting there against LH pitchers, but I think it's an idea that just needs to be given up on once and for all. He simply should not hit higher than 6th in any MLB lineup - period. If you hit him where his skill set fits (simply being fast isn't enough to be a top of the order hitter), then I think his defense & power combination might play pretty well, and I think fans would not see him as such an issue. When you have maybe the best hitter in baseball hitting 3rd for your team, it gets a little hard for fans to continue to watch the swing and miss parade in front of him over and over.

So, I say until the Reds have a better replacement (e.g., Hamilton) just let Stubbs be what he is. He's going on 28 yrs. old, he's not going to change, and he's going to strikeout - a lot! But at the bottom of the lineup - especially against LH pitchers - his speed/power combo can occasionally make some things happen, and he can continue to play good defense up the middle.

I hate to keep chiming in on this topic, but Stubbs is OPSing at 808 (.257/.325/.483) with an sOPS+ of 124 when batting 2nd in the line-up -- and that's only with a .300 BABIP against an xBABIP of .333. I think with his power, speed and plate discipline he could be the ideal #2 hitter. There's really no reason our line-up shouldn't be:

Phillips
Stubbs
Votto

Then some combination of Bruce, Ludwick and Frazier.

Also, for the guy that kept asking about Frazier's luck this year his xBABIP is about .300 which would imply that he's getting somewhat lucky (his BABIP is .333).

[Larkin88]

I hate to keep chiming in on this topic, but Stubbs is OPSing at 808 (.257/.325/.483) with an sOPS+ of 124 when batting 2nd in the line-up -- and that's only with a .300 BABIP against an xBABIP of .333. I think with his power, speed and plate discipline he could be the ideal #2 hitter. There's really no reason our line-up shouldn't be:

Phillips
Stubbs
Votto

Then some combination of Bruce, Ludwick and Frazier.

Also, for the guy that kept asking about Frazier's luck this year his xBABIP is about .300 which would imply that he's getting somewhat lucky (his BABIP is .333).

Jamz, appreciate you fighting the good fight on here. I'm a big sabre guy myself, but like statistician Joel Luckhaupt (https://twitter.com/jluckhaupt/status/230313153509089280), don't really believe in xBABIP. It's the one "predictive" or "normalized" metric that I've just never seen extensively work out in practice as it does in theory. All the same, your dissection in this thread has been really, really interesting.

While you are correct that xBABIP is often an indicator of how a player's performance might "even out" relative to his actual BABIP, it's is not correct to assume that it will "even out" to his xBABIP numbers on the button.

It seems you are positioning him as a top-shelf center fielder in the league in this thread, and I still don't really agree with that assessment. As I've said before, I like Drew's tools, I'm glad he's on the club, but I truly don't expect him to have some come to Jesus moment where just because his BABIP normalizes, he approaches Ellsbury levels in terms of value. I'm not arguing with you that he is above league average in a lot of categories, but I'm also not going to naively suggest that there isn't opportunity for improvement, specifically as it relates to him hitting at the top of the order.

Especially when you are looking at WAR, you need to look at it in the context of the rest of the league and the positional norms therein. Yes, Drew was a 2.6 WAR player last year, which lands him marginally ahead of Coco Crisp's 2.2 (though Drew had about 100 more plate appearances) and still in the lower echelon (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d)of center fielders in the game (with a career high .384 BABIP at the time).

The analytics that have evolved in baseball are great, but they don't exist in a vaccuum. I'm not one of the posters on here arguing that Drew is cut bait... far from it. I don't think we've seen him at his best, but I also don't believe that his best makes him an untouchable asset to the team. My perception of Drew is somewhere in the middle, which is where the batting order conversation gets frustrating at times.

[Jamz]

Jamz, appreciate you fighting the good fight on here. I'm a big sabre guy myself, but like statistician Joel Luckhaupt (https://twitter.com/jluckhaupt/status/230313153509089280), don't really believe in xBABIP. It's the one "predictive" or "normalized" metric that I've just never seen extensively work out in practice as it does in theory. All the same, your dissection in this thread has been really, really interesting.

While you are correct that xBABIP is often an indicator of how a player's performance might "even out" relative to his actual BABIP, it's is not correct to assume that it will "even out" to his xBABIP numbers on the button.

Thanks. I guess people believe in different things overall, but for me regardless of what his actual xBABIP is (right now it's .333) it raises a big red flag to me when someone's career BABIP is .326, including this season, and this season's BABIP is .289. That's a big difference and realistically history tells us a guy with his batted ball profile, age and speed shouldn't just suddenly see a near .050 drop in BABIP. I personally think it has to do with luck, and the numbers support that, but I don't expect everyone to believe it. I can only present an argument and let you guys decide.


It seems you are positioning him as a top-shelf center fielder in the league in this thread, and I still don't really agree with that assessment. As I've said before, I like Drew's tools, I'm glad he's on the club, but I truly don't expect him to have some come to Jesus moment where just because his BABIP normalizes, he approaches Ellsbury levels in terms of value. I'm not arguing with you that he is above league average in a lot of categories, but I'm also not going to naively suggest that there isn't opportunity for improvement, specifically as it relates to him hitting at the top of the order.

Maybe I'm being miscast a bit. My defence of him might make it seem like I think he's an elite CF, but I don't. I think he can be a very good one. I personally think that his 2010 year is a lot closer to what he really is than what people are willing to admit because he had such a bad (relative) 2011 and he's been pretty unlucky so far this season. I'm mostly just not willing to give up on him yet because he has shown the promise to be a 4+ WAR CF who is well respected in the clubhouse. Do I think he could improve in a lot of ways? Absolutely. He's got too much talent not to, but I don't think he's getting a fair shake right now.

But do try to remember that before they broke out guys like Kemp, Ellsbury, Bautista, Jones, etc. weren't dissimilar to Stubbs.


The analytics that have evolved in baseball are great, but they don't exist in a vaccuum. I'm not one of the posters on here arguing that Drew is cut bait... far from it. I don't think we've seen him at his best, but I also don't believe that his best makes him an untouchable asset to the team. My perception of Drew is somewhere in the middle, which is where the batting order conversation gets frustrating at times.

I agree. I don't think that he's untouchable, but I'm not eager to just sell him off either. I think he's a valuable asset to the team right now with potential to be a very valuable piece of a great team.

[Larkin88]

I agree. I don't think that he's untouchable, but I'm not eager to just sell him off either. I think he's a valuable asset to the team right now with potential to be a very valuable piece of a great team.

Good post, man! Sorry if I was putting words in your mouth about the "elite" label (whatever that means).

Nice seeing some reasoned discussion and analysis on the Sun Deck. :beerme:

[rgslone]

Jamz, appreciate you fighting the good fight on here. I'm a big sabre guy myself, but like statistician Joel Luckhaupt (https://twitter.com/jluckhaupt/status/230313153509089280), don't really believe in xBABIP. It's the one "predictive" or "normalized" metric that I've just never seen extensively work out in practice as it does in theory. All the same, your dissection in this thread has been really, really interesting.

While you are correct that xBABIP is often an indicator of how a player's performance might "even out" relative to his actual BABIP, it's is not correct to assume that it will "even out" to his xBABIP numbers on the button.

It seems you are positioning him as a top-shelf center fielder in the league in this thread, and I still don't really agree with that assessment. As I've said before, I like Drew's tools, I'm glad he's on the club, but I truly don't expect him to have some come to Jesus moment where just because his BABIP normalizes, he approaches Ellsbury levels in terms of value. I'm not arguing with you that he is above league average in a lot of categories, but I'm also not going to naively suggest that there isn't opportunity for improvement, specifically as it relates to him hitting at the top of the order.

Especially when you are looking at WAR, you need to look at it in the context of the rest of the league and the positional norms therein. Yes, Drew was a 2.6 WAR player last year, which lands him marginally ahead of Coco Crisp's 2.2 (though Drew had about 100 more plate appearances) and still in the lower echelon (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d)of center fielders in the game (with a career high .384 BABIP at the time).

The analytics that have evolved in baseball are great, but they don't exist in a vaccuum. I'm not one of the posters on here arguing that Drew is cut bait... far from it. I don't think we've seen him at his best, but I also don't believe that his best makes him an untouchable asset to the team. My perception of Drew is somewhere in the middle, which is where the batting order conversation gets frustrating at times.

You said it very well. I don't decry statistics, but you can't pick and choose your statistics and think others will agree with you when it is so painfully obvious to the naked eye that your rationalizations are just that - agenda driven rationalizations.

Again, I don't deny that Stubbs has valuable skills (defense/speed/power). I'll even agree that he can serve a key role on the team - although I'd prefer a platoon role. Just don't tell me he should hit 2nd in any lineup because that's when I think you lose credibility.

[Ohayou]

200 strikeouts means what? I'd say grounding into a double play is, in general, much worse than a strikeout. A strikeout is no worse than popping up to the infield, or grounding out without advancing a runner.


I think strikeouts are more overrated for pitchers then they are for hitters. I agree with you that, at times, putting the ball in play can actually be disadvantageous (e.g., guy on first and a groundball results in a double play). But if a guy strikes out 200 times in a season, that's 1/3 of his at-bats wasted. Let's say of those at-bats, 100 times were with someone on base (I have no idea how to calculate the average of how often guys come up with runners on base...is that something that people tally?), that's 100 times where the runner didn't get moved over, or didn't force the issue on defense, what have you. No sacrifice fly driving in a run, no taking advantage of a defense shifting around because a speedster is on first, etc.

I do agree that it is overrated in general, absolutely, but when a guy strikes out a lot, it's not meaningless.

[IamRV]

...
Just don't tell me he should hit 2nd in any lineup because that's when I think you lose credibility.

Then you have to deny the actual stats that show he hits better in the 2 hole than at any other place in the order.

[fielder's choice]

That's what you call a coincidence. Do you honestly think that if he had been hitting 2nd all year long that he would have a line similar to that?

[Larkin88]

Then you have to deny the actual stats that show he hits better in the 2 hole than at any other place in the order.

Because Drew Stubbs hits better in the two hole than he does anywhere else (and let's not act like he's sensational (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=stubbdr01&year=Career&t=b#lineu) there either), doesn't mean that it is denying statistics to say that he has no business hitting in the one or two holes, as rgslone said, in any lineup.

In no way are those mutually exclusive.

[BLEEDS]

Because Drew Stubbs hits better in the two hole than he does anywhere else (and let's not act like he's sensational (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=stubbdr01&year=Career&t=b#lineu) there either), doesn't mean that it is denying statistics to say that he has no business hitting in the one or two holes, as rgslone said, in any lineup.

In no way are those mutually exclusive.

I'd say an .822 OPS is fairly sensational...

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[Jamz]

For what it's worth an .822 OPS would have him as the 50th most productive offensive player in the league and his 124 OPS+ from that position would rank him 42nd in the league in offensive production (from the 2 hole.)

Not saying that's what he would produce there if he was always there, but it gives some food for thought. Regardless of whether or not you think that he's the best player to put in the 2 hole, we appear to get the most out of him when he is batting there.

[Larkin88]

I'd say an .822 OPS is fairly sensational...

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For what it's worth an .822 OPS would have him as the 50th most productive offensive player in the league and his 124 OPS+ from that position would rank him 42nd in the league in offensive production (from the 2 hole.)

Not saying that's what he would produce there if he was always there, but it gives some food for thought. Regardless of whether or not you think that he's the best player to put in the 2 hole, we appear to get the most out of him when he is batting there.

Hey , it's certainly not chopped liver - you guy's got me there. And as I've said elsewhere on this board, I'm not hating on Drew in general. Like the player, like his power/speed/defense combo, glad he's here, koombayah, etc etc.

But I'd rather have a guy whose OPS is driven by OBP, rather than SLG hitting in front of Votto.

.325 OBP hitting second for this season or even a .340 OBP there in his career are not sensational numbers for a top of the lineup guy. They aren't bad and that's not what I'm implying, but there is opportunity for improvement if the Reds decide to make OBP in front of Votto a priority is all I'm saying. Seems like they tried to do that at the deadline.

Can't dispute that you get the most production out of Drew in the 2 hole. The numbers are clear as day. But his performance there is not irreplaceable and I (actually to Drew's credit) think he could post a similar line batting lower in the order to make the team better as a whole.

Just a difference in philosophy. I understand other people (including Dusty) evaluate things differently. And he certainly knows more about baseball than I do, I'd guess. :lol:

[OldCat]

Just a difference in philosophy. I understand other people (including Dusty) evaluate things differently. And he certainly knows more about baseball than I do, I'd guess. :lol:

Now that some of the James stuff has been around a bit it is danger of being the new stale orthodoxy. I remember someone did a study of lineups and even a 'inverted' lineup with the pitcher batting first wasn't massively different in runs per game than the optimal, or close to optimal lineup.

In the 80s, the Cardinals had all those jackrabbits without super-great OBPs in the early spots. They did all right for themselves. Sometimes the 'suboptimal' one run strategies that in the past were over-used work - if all you need is one run and your pitching and defense can hold the lead.

[Kingspoint]

Stubbs is still not a good #2 hitter. You can't have your #2 hitter whiffing as much as he does. It's not productive. The #2 hitter is the most situational hitter on the team. He has to be a great contact hitter, not a good, not OK, and certainly not terrible as Stubbs has been throughout his career.

As a #1 hitter, though, Stubbs is ideal. He's proven over the course of his Major League career to score more runs per game batting from the number one hole than most of the #1 hitters in baseball. His 0.72 runs per game over his career as a leadoff hitter is only 2/100th's less than Jose Reyes' career number of 0.70 as a leadoff hitter. Reyes is considered one of the best of the leadoff hitters, yet he's no better than Stubbs has been at scoring runs, and isn't that the job of the leadoff hitter?

[Kingspoint]

But I'd rather have a guy whose OPS is driven by OBP, rather than SLG hitting in front of Votto.

That's the no-brainer statement of the century.

[OldCat]

That's the no-brainer statement of the century.

If so then OPS isn't a good stat to be using for this purpose.

[fielder's choice]

Reyes is considered one of the best of the leadoff hitters, yet he's no better than Stubbs has been at scoring runs, and isn't that the job of the leadoff hitter?

No, it's not. His job is to get on base, and he's awful at that.

[Kingspoint]

If so then OPS isn't a good stat to be using for this purpose.Without a doubt.

[Kingspoint]

No, it's not. His job is to get on base, and he's awful at that.For me, it's more than just getting on base. You can't have a guy leading off that takes two hits to get him around to score. The odds of that happening are significantly less than just getting one hit. So, because of that, I think a leadoff player's job is to get to second base AND first base. A player who can get to second either because they are adept at hitting Doubles and Triples, or because they can steal a base (with a percentage of at least 75%) is more likely to score than a player who can only get to first base. A Double isn't going to score Scott Rolen or Miguel Cairo from first base, but a long single is very capable of scoring Drew Stubbs from 1st Base and a Double is always going to score Drew Stubbs from 1st Base.

Getting to 2nd base and being in scoring position on one's own is all part of being a good leadoff hitter. I'd love to see what Drew Stubbs could do without the influence of Dusty Baker's swing at all costs attitude because walks don't score runs.

[Larkin88]

If so then OPS isn't a good stat to be using for this purpose.

OPS is a great stat here in supporting that overall, Stubbs is a pretty good ballplayer which is why I truly do like him on this team. And that it's also undeniable that he performs better in the #2 spot than anywhere else. But like any stat, you need to take it in context.

But OPS = OBP + SLG

A guy who has an OBP of .300 and a SLG of .400 has an OPS of .700 the same way that a guy who has an OBP of .400 and a SLG of .300 has an OPS of .700.

At the top of the lineup, where conventional construction has your best hitters 3-4-5, you want guys on base in front of them to score runs. The Reds have generally struggled to get guys on base at the top of the lineup this year, which is partially why a guy like Votto can lead the world in doubles, but have less than extraordinary RBI numbers (even before the injury).

In the #2 hole, Stubbs has had an OBP in the low .300's and a SLG in the high .400's to low .500's from month to month. My argument as far as I value things is that this is not the ideal person to have at the top of the lineup. I think the team agrees to an extent based on who they were linked to before the deadline. Other people may have different opinions on that, and I don't fault them for that or insist that I am absolutely correct.

Don't intend any of this is an indictment on Drew or Dusty's lineup construction. It's undeniable that Stubbs has performed his best hitting second, which is what makes this an interesting situation. Just my two cents.

[Larkin88]

Now that some of the James stuff has been around a bit it is danger of being the new stale orthodoxy. I remember someone did a study of lineups and even a 'inverted' lineup with the pitcher batting first wasn't massively different in runs per game than the optimal, or close to optimal lineup.

In the 80s, the Cardinals had all those jackrabbits without super-great OBPs in the early spots. They did all right for themselves. Sometimes the 'suboptimal' one run strategies that in the past were over-used work - if all you need is one run and your pitching and defense can hold the lead.

I'm sorry, it's been a long day so I'm a little foggy. But what exactly is your point here?

Seems like you're saying putting a priority on OBP in the #1 and #2 hole is some "new stale orthodoxy" while also suggesting that it was an effective strategy for the Cardinals in the 80s who did well for themselves.

To be clear, I am an advocate of manufacturing runs in the National League, which is I guess what I've been trying to get at. That said, I am not an advocate of counting on 1-0 wins to hold up and get the job done in the playoffs.

[Kingspoint]

It's undeniable that Stubbs has performed his best hitting second.There's nothing obvious about that.

Stubbs has batted 2nd 70 times in his career. He's scored at a 0.72 runs per game pace. Not exactly a large sample size when you're speaking about 2/5th's of a seasons worth of stats.

Stubbs has batted 1st 182 times. He's scored at a 0.71 runs per game pace, exactly the same pace with him batting 2nd. This is a sample size 2.6 times greater.

That alone makes it arguable that he's not "better" battting 2nd, but may be equally proficient at batting 1st. If one of your jobs is to get on base and score for the #'s 3-5 hitters, then he's the same at the 1 or the 2.

If you think of the other things that a #2 hitter is responsible for, then how does Stubbs compare? One huge job of a #2 hitter is that you make a productive out. A man named Barry Larkin just entered the Hall-of-Fame off of a career of making productive outs from the #2 hole. Whatever the situation calls for, that's the job of the #2 hitter, whether it's to bunt-sacrifice, groundout to the opposite side, hit a flyball to deep right to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd, hit a sac fly or a groundout to score a run, or walk to move runners to 1st and 2nd. All of these things are weaknesses of Stubbs, huge weaknesses. At least they have been since he's been involved with Baker. They weren't all weaknesses as a Minor League Player. Stubbs was adept at getting on base in the Minors, but now he struggles with it. He really struggles to make contact, which is the antithesis of a #2 hitter.

To prove how poorly Stubbs is at situational hitting, just look at his "K" rates when batting 2nd vs batting 1st. (A guy batting 1st is always having the pitcher up before him, so he has fewer chances with men-on-base.)


Batting from the #2 hole, Stubbs strikes out every 3.65 Plate Appearances w/ only 5 Sacrifices out of those 314 PA's.

Batting from the #1 hole, Stubbs strikes out every 3.63 Plate Appearances w/ only 4 Sacrifices out of those 855 PA's.

Stubbs is simply clueless when it comes to situational hitting. He's as bad a #2 hitter as one could have. Because he's so adept at scoring, though, he makes an ideal #1 hitter where there are the least number of situational-hitting opportunities for him to face.

[rgslone]

Again, I think Larkin88 really has it right. I think Stubbs can be valuable if put in the best position to succeed.

I used to get aggravated with Stubbs because it seemed from some statements that he was just stubborn, fancied himself as a power hitter, and didn't think his strikeouts were an issue. But others on here made the point that scouts say he simply has poor pitch recognition skills and he's never going to make good contact. So, I became resigned to the fact that Stubbs just is what he is, and I should not keep expecting something different or be frustrated with him for his strikeouts. Instead, I'm frustrated with manager's decision to keep putting Stubbs at the top of the lineup. I just can't believe that this is in the team's best interest - or in Stubbs' best interest of having a long career.

I'm not arrogant enough to think I know more than a MLB manager, but I think I've watched enough baseball to at least question some things. And even a MLB manager can make a bad decision or two. Surely, however, placing Stubbs at the top of the order is not a decision based simply on the fact that he's fast and plays CF - as some have suggested. But, if there's a valid reason for batting him 2nd I just can't see it.

[Jamz]

You guys are really oversimplifying things by measuring his success by percentage of runs scored or the amount of contact he makes at a certain position. As the 2nd batter, generally, you should be at the plate more often than any other player with runners on base. Just making contact is not good enough -- most of the time I'd rather a strikeout than a soft groundout to the shortstop or infield pop-up.

That said in an ideal world our line-up would look like this:

Brandon Phillips
Joey Votto
Todd Frazier
Jay Bruce
Ryan Ludwick
Zack Cozart
Ryan Hannigan/Devin Mesoraco
Pitcher
Drew Stubbs

However, Stubbs has been incredibly successful at the 2nd spot. I'd be curious to know how many teams have their 2nd in the order OPSing at .820+

Also of note...another good night from Stubbs at the plate (against a righty!) 2/3 with a walk and 2 runs.

[BLEEDS]

I'd be curious to know how many teams have their 2nd in the order OPSing at .820+

I'm guessing nobody in the NL;
Maybe one or two in the AL



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[Ironman92]

This thread sucks.

/thread