Billy Hamilton & OPS

[sigep529]

I was thinking about Fay's article about Billy Hamilton and started wondering about something.

Hamilton's stat line per the article is .323/.413/.441... an OPS of .854. Not bad.

He has also stolen 100 bases. Also not bad. :dancingcool:

Is there a stat out there that incorporates SB into an OPS-type number? Essentially, I'm looking for a stat that would include SB as Total Bases for the purpose of calculating SLG & OPS.

Imagine what Hamilton's number would look like in such a category. What about Rickey Henderson? ...Lou Brock?

Does such a thing exist already?

[BluegrassRedleg]

It's an interesting point. Walks and singles might as well be doubles and triples for that guy this season.

Any idea how many of his SBs are of second/third/home?

[DirtyBaker]

I would make a formula like this:

OBP + (TB+SB)/PA

His steals then don't effect his OBP, but would be incorporated into his slugging percentage. - i.e., a single followed by a stolen base would be scored the same as a double.

His new OPS if you include steals as an extra base would be 1.055 which is quite impressive for a guy who's only hit 6 HRs in almost 1500 PAs.

That doesn't even count how he could get in the mind of the opposing pitcher, break up potential double plays, and play high caliber defense.

Very excited to see him in the majors sometime down the road.

[Redsfansince72]

I rather see him playing Cf leading off right now.. he would put a spark into this waste of a offense that Jacoby is still allowed to be the dang batting coach..

[Jefferson24]

I rather see him playing Cf leading off right now.. he would put a spark into this waste of a offense that Jacoby is still allowed to be the dang batting coach..

bring him up tomorrow.

[P.E.R#14]

My gut says it's too early to bring him up, but it sure would be a nice little spark to start the second half. Especially agianst the Cards.

Can anyone tell me if he's still only playing SS?

Go Reds!!

[Alpha Zero]

I would make a formula like this:

OBP + (TB+SB)/PA

His steals then don't effect his OBP, but would be incorporated into his slugging percentage. - i.e., a single followed by a stolen base would be scored the same as a double.

His new OPS if you include steals as an extra base would be 1.055 which is quite impressive for a guy who's only hit 6 HRs in almost 1500 PAs.

That doesn't even count how he could get in the mind of the opposing pitcher, break up potential double plays, and play high caliber defense.

Very excited to see him in the majors sometime down the road.

You'd need to factor in the CS numbers as well. A base runner needs to steal successfully about 80% of the time for it to be worth the risk of getting thrown out.

[swaisuc]

You'd need to factor in the CS numbers as well. A base runner needs to steal successfully about 80% of the time for it to be worth the risk of getting thrown out.

Exactly. While I'm not quite willing to go so far as to say his steals are a NET 0, it's just as silly to add those bases straight to the bottom line.

I think you have to view him as a .854 OPS hitter if that's what he shows himself to be. The speed may add some benefit if the percentage goes up, but nothing huge IMO.

[Red Raindog]

so far this year he has 103 SB & 21 CS

that is a lot of running

[sigep529]

You'd need to factor in the CS numbers as well. A base runner needs to steal successfully about 80% of the time for it to be worth the risk of getting thrown out.

So maybe use CS percentage in the calculations...

If he's stolen 100 bases with an 80% success rate, then he gets credit for 80 bases.

Although, a runner trying to stretch a single still gets credit for one Total Base if he's thrown out at second.

[swaisuc]

So maybe use CS percentage in the calculations...

If he's stolen 100 bases with an 80% success rate, then he gets credit for 80 bases.

Although, a runner trying to stretch a single still gets credit for one Total Base if he's thrown out at second.

The problem with that logically is that you're giving more credit for someone going 21 for 41 than someone who went 0 for 0 when an out is normally worth much, much more than a base.

I agree on your second point though. OPS is a good stat, but still has holes with comparing it with real baseball value added. I think the simplest thing is to ignore baserunning in general which is what they do now.

[Ironman92]

You'd need to factor in the CS numbers as well. A base runner needs to steal successfully about 80% of the time for it to be worth the risk of getting thrown out.

Then why does anyone steal? How few stolen base threats ever are over 80%?

[jwmann2]

Hamilton has great speed. He has got to began to remind people of Rickey Henderson. I just hope the Reds develop him and bring him along slowly. I will be disappointed if he begins the 2013 season in anywhere other than Louisville to be honest. He needs some more offense.

[Ironman92]

Is he on the 40 man?

He's getting the world's supply of reps and playing time......when Sept rolls around I'd bring him up in a heartbeat for a guy to have on the playoff roster. He would be a gigantic asset to use late in the game pinch running.

[swaisuc]

Then why does anyone steal? How few stolen base threats ever are over 80%?

The problem with that 80% number is I believe it tries to average out all situations. There are clearly situations where a steal would help more or that an out would hurt more than normal. This the same reason sac bunts are sometimes a good idea, but would be ridiculous at other times.

I think people try to steal in situations where a steal has better than average value and the risk of out has less than average risk. That is why so many guys try it with a 70% average. When you are attempting 124 times at less than 80%, I think it's probably fair to assume he's running in all situations and can be graded against an average.

I like Hamilton. I think he's a fun story and will be fun to watch. I just dont think his running is a good reason to start him anytime soon. If he was doing the same thing with 5 CS or less, that would be different. 21 CS is a TON and negates at least most (arguably all) of the 100 bases IMO.

[The Rage]

I could see the Reds callup Hamilton next season.

[Norm Chortleton]

I like Hamilton. I think he's a fun story and will be fun to watch. I just dont think his running is a good reason to start him anytime soon. If he was doing the same thing with 5 CS or less, that would be different. 21 CS is a TON and negates at least most (arguably all) of the 100 bases IMO.

What????

Hamilton CS = 16.5% for his career and 16.8% for this season.

Those numbers are better than 4 of the top 5 of the all-time stolen base leaders in the modern era:

CS %
Rickey Henderson = 19.2%
Lou Brock = 24.7%
Ty Cobb = 19.1%
Tim Raines = 15.3%
Vince Coleman = 19.0%

[RedsFanInBama]

What????

Hamilton CS = 16.5% for his career and 16.8% for this season.

Those numbers are better than 4 of the top 5 of the all-time stolen base leaders in the modern era:

CS %
Rickey Henderson = 19.2%
Lou Brock = 24.7%
Ty Cobb = 19.1%
Tim Raines = 15.3%
Vince Coleman = 19.0%

I don't get his argument either. I guess he's saying that he would have likely scored the same amount of runs had he stayed put and not been caught attempting to steal as he has by stealing 104 and being caught 21 times. Perhaps the math or probabilities bear that out, but I have a hard time believing that is the case.

Personally, I think there's something to be said for a guy that can disrupt a pitcher and take his focus off a batter. Now, there's no real way to calculate that effect, but I think it is valid. I also will take a guy putting himself into scoring position 5 out of 6 times over staying on first base and waiting for something to happen. But again, I'm one of those morons who thinks there's more to the game than numbers and averages. Stealing third is a bit different. I think your percentage should be a good bit higher in attempting to steal third, especially when you have that kind of speed already.

[IamRV]

I believe the total bases plus the steals minus the caught stealing would be useful in calculating value. How you would plug that in is up to discussion but there is no doubt that stealing a base is of value to an offense and thereby should be a positive consideration.