Are the Reds really buyers?

[Who Dey Time]

In his daily morning blog, Daugherty cites a "Reds insider" that claims a straight up Ondrusek for Victorino trade was turned down......by the Reds.

If that is the case then, IMO, I would not expect the Reds to be involved in many deals over the next week. I understand the need to keep Ondrusek while the jury is still out on Masset but, to me, that particular deal was a small price to pay for what could turn out to be a good addition to what is a clear area of need on this team.

I never thought the Reds were going to make a huge splash this month. If the above is true it more than enhances that stance.

[Hillsdale87]

If that's true, that seems like a deal the reds should have made in a heartbeat. I know Victorino is only signed through this season, but the Reds have a good bullpen, with a few solid guys at AAA as well. Victorino is having a down season, but that could change if he's on a good team with something to play for. It also didn't help that Utley and Howard missed so much time.

[mrherd05]

Im starting to think that we dont need to be buyers.

Is Pierre a big upgrade to Stubbs/Heisey.

We dont need bullpen or rotation help.

Are any of the left fielders out there big upgrades over Ludwick right now, especially if we have to give up some important parts of the team?

THe only thing we need to really buy is a left handed bat for the bench, which would take nothing to get, and an upgrade at 3rd base which wont happen due to Rolen being there..ugh.

I would not have wanted to part with Ondrusek for Victorino at all.

[bleedsred]

Seems like Ondrusek could bring in more than Victorino, wouldn't he be a rental. I think Logan is better than any arm that Hou gave up and they got a pretty nice haul from those guys in terms of prospects anyway.....Maybe the Reds are waiting to get Masset going before they deal from the pen though. Our pitching is what got the team to this point, hate to start trading it away for offense.

[R_Webb18]

of course we are buyers. that doesn't mean we will buy tho.

[Larkin88]

Seems like Ondrusek could bring in more than Victorino, wouldn't he be a rental. I think Logan is better than any arm that Hou gave up and they got a pretty nice haul from those guys in terms of prospects anyway.....Maybe the Reds are waiting to get Masset going before they deal from the pen though. Our pitching is what got the team to this point, hate to start trading it away for offense.

I agree. Frankly, I'm surprised people are seemingly outraged at this conversation. Comes down to club control.

Victorino is a huge risk-reward gamble right now. The Reds bullpen is a large reason they are where they are. I wouldn't upset that apple cart either for the type of season Victorino is having. Especially with question marks around Masset and (I would argue) the hit-or-miss effectiveness of Bray.

I'd almost be more inclined to go for a guy like Pierre, who I think could be had for prospects and (for the role he would be asked to play) could come close to the production that Victorino would have brought at a higher cost.

[Jefferson24]

Nixing the Victorino deal is a good sign. It lets other teams know that Walt isn't going to do a deal just to do a deal. He isn't going to get taken advantage of because we are not is a desperate situation. If the right deal comes along, he will pull the trigger. If not it isn't the worst thing. We do have one of the best records in the NL a this time.

[arkimadee]

The only real upgrade this team should do is get a left handed pinch hitter. That should include trading 0 good prospects.

[Pony Boy]

Ondrusek is too much value for a Victorino rental. Losing Ondrusek would significantly weaken the bullpen in the short-term and he is under team control for another 4 years (I think).

I would love to rent Victorino, but I wouldnt give up Ondrusek to do it.

[sdwagers]

Ondrusek is a victim of Dusty's bullpen mismanagement and his numbers could be improved . A Victorino rental is a lopside deal for the Phillies. Good Job Walt.

[arkimadee]

Ondrusek is a victim of Dusty's bullpen mismanagement and his numbers could be improved . A Victorino rental is a lopside deal for the Phillies. Good Job Walt.

Bullpen mismanagement. Are you kidding me!! We have the best bullpen in the National League. Tell me how it is mismanaged.

[sdwagers]

The only real upgrade this team should do is get a left handed pinch hitter. That should include trading 0 good prospects.

paging Mark Kotsay.... paging Rick Ankiel.

unless there's a multiplayer swap to really shake things up - I see this as the only deal. "Joe Reds fan" will like complain and say " why can't we trade Heisey or Stubbs for allstar XYZ" .... SIGH.

The Reds could use a switch hitter or another LH hitter in the starting line- up ... but I dont see that happening.

[Larkin88]

The only real upgrade this team should do is get a left handed pinch hitter. That should include trading 0 good prospects.

I would argue that the real upgrade the team needs is a good left handed pinch hitter. (i.e. NOT Costanzo or Willie Harris or even a guy like Rick Ankiel) And yes, that would involve us having to give up value on our end, probably in the form of prospects.

I think we've learned this year that just because a guy is a left handed hitter, doesn't mean thats the exclusive reason to carry him on the roster.

[The DARK]

The problem is that with the new CBA, teams aren't going to be so hot on dealing their mid-level players in the last season of a contract when they have to give up a high draft pick, and we don't get anything. It's going to mean that real stars and loose ends without draft implications will get traded, but not mid-level upgrades like Victorino. I'm surprised we got that good of an offer for him in the first place... Philly must be really tired of him.

[sdwagers]

Bullpen mismanagement. Are you kidding me!! We have the best bullpen in the National League. Tell me how it is mismanaged.

Logan is Dusty's fall guy in a tight situation. He gets over used. His numbers would be sharper if Dusty knew when use guys better. Logan got overworked last year for instance.

[Pony Boy]

We will be buyers.

The Pirates will force Walt's hand. How bad is Walt going to look if the Pirates make a big trade(s) and then pass the Reds in the standings while Walt sits on his hands at the deadline?

[Old NDN]

I would be tempted to do this deal. The need of a LH/top of the order bat is more glaring than ever. The Big "O" is having a good year, but replacing his innings in middle relief would be easier than solving the top of the order dark hole, IMO. If the Reds are, indeed, "going for it", here's an opportunity to improve the club w/out much disruption.

My batting order:
1. Victorino
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Ludwick/Frazier
5. Bruce
6. Rolen/Heisey
7. Cozart
8. Hannigan/Mesoraco

Spots 4-6 would be interchangeable, depending on who plays, that's assuming Votto comes back soon.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Nixing the Victorino deal is a good sign. It lets other teams know that Walt isn't going to do a deal just to do a deal. He isn't going to get taken advantage of because we are not is a desperate situation. If the right deal comes along, he will pull the trigger. If not it isn't the worst thing. We do have one of the best records in the NL a this time.

Interesting take. I was a little bummed to read that first post, but if you're right, I'll feel much better.

[brm7675]

We will be buyers.

The Pirates will force Walt's hand. How bad is Walt going to look if the Pirates make a big trade(s) and then pass the Reds in the standings while Walt sits on his hands at the deadline?

Pirates have more chips to play with, we made our big deals in teh offseason..

[Pony Boy]

Pirates have more chips to play with, we made our big deals in teh offseason..

Not really. We still have enough ammo to make a big move. Rentals don't usually require top prospects.

[IamRV]

Trading Ondrusek for Victorino would be dumber than dumb. We already have Victorino on the roster and he wears #6.


Shane Victorino AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 275 .233 .291 .324 .615

Drew Stubbs AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 210 .195 .275 .305 .580

[R_Webb18]

Trading Ondrusek for Victorino would be dumber than dumb. We already have Victorino on the roster and he wears #6.


Shane Victorino AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 275 .233 .291 .324 .615

Drew Stubbs AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 210 .195 .275 .305 .580

yup this year and he still beats stubbs.

[Trajinous]

I'm glad that the Reds turned down that trade. It's amazing the Red's bullpen has become such a strength after the losses of Madsen (he's still technically a Red), Masset and Bray. Ondrusek, Simon and Arrendondo have done a great job this year and Victorino isn't that much of an upgrade over Stubbs anyways.

I would honestly miss Lurch if he got traded.

[P.E.R#14]

The only real upgrade this team should do is get a left handed pinch hitter. That should include trading 0 good prospects.

:beerme:

[Ironman92]

You can't make a trade for a guy who plays CF and not give them Stubbs, Heisey or Luddy.

My head would literally explode with the lineups put out there. You'd have Stubbs in CF everyday (fast), a 3x GG CF in LF and Heisey and Luddy rarely playing.

We'd be worse.

[malcontent]

You can't make a trade for a guy who plays CF and not give them Stubbs, Heisey or Luddy.

My head would literally explode with the lineups put out there. You'd have Stubbs in CF everyday (fast), a 3x GG CF in LF and Heisey and Luddy rarely playing.

We'd be worse.
Excellent point.

IMO, Stubbs has to go, either in the trade for another CF or in a separate deal.

If he stays, the OBP-dismissive Baker will still start him in CF and bat him lead-off.

That aside, as much as I like Ondrusek, getting Victorino for him would have looked like a steal in the past.

[herbdizzle]

I would have pulled the trigger on this deal in a heartbeat. Ondrusek has good numbers and is cost controlled but is there any other position we have a surplus of than hard throwing right handed relievers. FFS, Ondrusek's spot could be instantly filled by Alfredo Simon. We have Hoover & Joseph ready in AAA for a promotion. We also have Lecure, Arredondo, & Redmond. I like Big O as much as the next guy but Victorino is exactly what this team needs, a switch hitting CF that can send Stubbs to the bench where he belongs. Frankly I'm a little stunned at the opinions going the other way.

[Pony Boy]

I would have pulled the trigger on this deal in a heartbeat. Ondrusek has good numbers and is cost controlled but is there any other position we have a surplus of than hard throwing right handed relievers. FFS, Ondrusek's spot could be instantly filled by Alfredo Simon. We have Hoover & Joseph ready in AAA for a promotion. We also have Lecure, Arredondo, & Redmond. I like Big O as much as the next guy but Victorino is exactly what this team needs, a switch hitting CF that can send Stubbs to the bench where he belongs. Frankly I'm a little stunned at the opinions going the other way.

Ondrusek is significantly better than Simon in my opinion. He is our best bullpen arm outside of Marshall and Chapman.

Think about what the Reds have given up recently for Chapman, Marshall and Madsen in total dollars and in traded players. It isnt surprising that they would not give away a quality bullpen arm like Ondrusek for a rental.

[Todd Gack]

Logan is Dusty's fall guy in a tight situation. He gets over used. His numbers would be sharper if Dusty knew when use guys better. Logan got overworked last year for instance.

Logan Ondrusek was tied with 55th in appearances last year including a three week stint on the DL. If he appeared all 21 days in all of those games (assuming there was a game every day. . prob not) during those three weeks, he would've been #1 by one game.

Ondrusek is currently 41st in MLB in GP.

Here is a link to ESPN's stat page:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/gamesPlayed

[Maker_84]

Ondrusek is too much value for a Victorino rental. Losing Ondrusek would significantly weaken the bullpen in the short-term and he is under team control for another 4 years (I think).

I would love to rent Victorino, but I wouldnt give up Ondrusek to do it.

Agreed, it would be a major ripoff to do that trade.

[DocRed]

Trading Ondrusek for Victorino would be dumber than dumb. We already have Victorino on the roster and he wears #6.


Shane Victorino AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 275 .233 .291 .324 .615

Drew Stubbs AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 210 .195 .275 .305 .580

Why would you include stats only against RHP? In any case Victorino is and always will be a sizable upgrade over Drew Stubbs rental or not.

[Ironman92]

I would have pulled the trigger on this deal in a heartbeat. Ondrusek has good numbers and is cost controlled but is there any other position we have a surplus of than hard throwing right handed relievers. FFS, Ondrusek's spot could be instantly filled by Alfredo Simon. We have Hoover & Joseph ready in AAA for a promotion. We also have Lecure, Arredondo, & Redmond. I like Big O as much as the next guy but Victorino is exactly what this team needs, a switch hitting CF that can send Stubbs to the bench where he belongs. Frankly I'm a little stunned at the opinions going the other way.

I have zero reasons to believe that Stubbs would be sent to the bench....he's never been benched ever, no matter what. He was called up in 2009 and played like the next 31 games. Patterson, Taveras, Stubbs....Victorino would be thrown in to left and his 3 GG in CF would be ticked off.

He does have the "fire" this team could use more of and he would be an upgrade over everyday Stubbs.....but we can't take on any OF players unless we package one or more of them.

[The Rage]

The Reds valued Logan over Victor. Nothing more or less.

[IamRV]

Why would you include stats only against RHP? In any case Victorino is and always will be a sizable upgrade over Drew Stubbs rental or not.

Aren't we trying to improve the lineup? Victorino brings us basically nothing Stubbs doesn't give us vs RHP re. OBP and that is the flaw in our lineup.

[MrRedLegger]

Victorino for Ondrusek might seem like a good deal on the surface, but the more I think of it it's not that great of a deal. We'd be lessening our stellar bullpen for a marginal upgrade in the OF considering who we have now. The benefit to cost ratio would not be in our favor. Plus Ondrusek is young for a pitcher and we have him until 2017

[malcontent]

Maybe they're really targeting Span.

[arkimadee]

man Ichiro would have made alot of sense!!! im jealous of the Yankees on that one

[Larkin88]

Maybe they're really targeting Span.

Maybe. With the team control he has, it might be expensive. As it goes with anything though, you pay more to get more.

Was interesting that Victorino was pulled tonight. Didn't see the extent of the alleged injury though.

[EMAW]

Bullpen mismanagement. Are you kidding me!! We have the best bullpen in the National League. Tell me how it is mismanaged.

Since Dusty does it, obviously it is wrong. The Reds were in so much better shape before he stepped foot in the dugout. Man what these Baker Bashers would give for a return to a manager they adore and some good old fashioned 90 loss seasons.

[joshua]

If true...a stupid move by the Reds. Bullpen is their strength, and they keep acquiring arms. They had the opportunity to buy low and upgrade their worst hitter with a GG OFer who can switch hit to fill the lefty void in the lineup and be a top of the order bat the Reds need and they said no? Victorino has been slumping in an offense that's not producing...everyone knows hitting is contagious and he would likely turn it around once he was here and had guys like Heisey, Frazier, Votto, Phillips and Bruce hitting behind him. And we could flip Stubbs for a AAA arm and promote JJ.

That's pretty infuriating if true.

[Knightro28]

Some people love this proposed trade, some people hate it.

Good is the enemy of great. Walt may be saying no to Victorino in advance of saying yes to (fill in the blank with a better CF).

[herbdizzle]

In light of the options that have been listed in trade threads including Span, Fowler, Zobrist, Crisp; wouldn't Victorino be the best option in terms of return on investment if the Ondrusek straight swap is true? From all accounts it will cost a ton for Span or Fowler in terms of prospects the Reds do not want to give up. Solving CF for this year at the expense of 1 bullpen arm is short-sighted IMO. You can always look for other options in the off-season if need be but Shane's WS experience, switch-hitting, and GG defense are hard to ignore.

[Todd Gack]

If true...a stupid move by the Reds. Bullpen is their strength, and they keep acquiring arms. They had the opportunity to buy low and upgrade their worst hitter with a GG OFer who can switch hit to fill the lefty void in the lineup and be a top of the order bat the Reds need and they said no? Victorino has been slumping in an offense that's not producing...everyone knows hitting is contagious and he would likely turn it around once he was here and had guys like Heisey, Frazier, Votto, Phillips and Bruce hitting behind him. And we could flip Stubbs for a AAA arm and promote JJ.

That's pretty infuriating if true.

The Reds have played one less game and scored 6 less runs than the Phillies this year.

[Hillsdale87]

man Ichiro would have made alot of sense!!! im jealous of the Yankees on that one

Ichiro has a lower OBP and OPS than Drew Stubbs and doesn't play CF. He wouldn't fit on the Reds.

[Larkin88]

If true...a stupid move by the Reds. Bullpen is their strength, and they keep acquiring arms. They had the opportunity to buy low and upgrade their worst hitter with a GG OFer who can switch hit to fill the lefty void in the lineup and be a top of the order bat the Reds need and they said no? Victorino has been slumping in an offense that's not producing...everyone knows hitting is contagious and he would likely turn it around once he was here and had guys like Heisey, Frazier, Votto, Phillips and Bruce hitting behind him. And we could flip Stubbs for a AAA arm and promote JJ.

That's pretty infuriating if true.

I think it comes down to the intangibles beyond the players in question themselves. As you said, Victorino has been slumping something awful. This is his contract year. I think if you're the Reds, you don't want to gamble a team-controlled, high leverage reliever making less than $500,000 this year for a rental of Victorino, who would need to do a 180 from his performance this year to return to a high level of play.

I'm still willing to wait and see if there are other coals on the fire that make a little more sense. Think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, though, I'm pretty glad to see the Reds pass on it. I'm also glad to see another organization thinks so highly of Logan.

[swaisuc]

Aren't we trying to improve the lineup? Victorino brings us basically nothing Stubbs doesn't give us vs RHP re. OBP and that is the flaw in our lineup.

This is only true if you value this year's 267 AB's against RHP rather than his 4,000 career ABs that show much, much better numbers.

Victorino was just getting MVP votes last year, I find it hard to believe he's fallen off a cliff, but maybe.

[Larkin88]

This is only true if you value this year's 267 AB's against RHP rather than his 4,000 career ABs that show much, much better numbers.

Victorino was just getting MVP votes last year, I find it hard to believe he's fallen off a cliff, but maybe.

The thing is, he is a rental. We wouldn't be getting him for all the great career accomplishments he has been able to achieve. We would be inheriting his current production at a cost.

I totally agree with the importance of evaluating good sample sizes to inform a discussion about a player. My concern at the cost of Ondrusek is that Vic's been trending the wrong way all this year, and unless you are assuming that he will instantly revert to the 4,000 career AB norms, the timeline for him to turn it around would have to be pretty aggressive.

[Old NDN]

Why would you include stats only against RHP? In any case Victorino is and always will be a sizable upgrade over Drew Stubbs rental or not.

I was wondering the same thing. I guess you could cherry-pick just about any stat to support your opinion. For me, Stubbs inability to make contact should disqualify him from batting 1-2.

AB: Stubbs: 281, Victorino: 367
Ks: Stubbs: 84, Victorino: 46

[Larkin88]

I was wondering the same thing. I guess you could cherry-pick just about any stat to support your opinion. For me, Stubbs inability to make contact should disqualify him from batting 1-2.

AB: Stubbs: 281, Victorino: 367
Ks: Stubbs: 84, Victorino: 46

First of all, I agree about getting Stubbs out of the 1 or 2 hole. But I'm not here to argue the merits or failures of Drew Stubbs.

He is arguing that a glaring issue for the Reds has been getting on-base and producing against right handed pitching. He even said as much in his replies. With Votto out, we have one lefty. One. Here are the Reds numbers against right handed pitching (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=14&season1=2012&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=6,d) this year.

He isn't evaluating the overall value of each player, nor was that his intent. He's assessing the value of Victorino over Stubbs as far as it situationally impacts an area where the Reds have struggled (i.e. OBP vs. RHP). I don't think it's fair to call something cherry picking when he's trying to speak to a specific scenario where the Reds have not been good this year. Hence the whole "Isn't the goal to improve the team?" question.