Continued from ORG: Adam Dunn

[webbbj]

theres a large thread bringing up Adam Dunn's performance. Now getting into a debate of his HOF chances.

What does he need to do to get elected?
Can he do it?

I personally think 600 HRs is what he needs. hes 201 away at age 32.

Things in his favor are health, hes never had a serious injury. And consistency, minus last years fiasco of a season.

Moving forward things that I could hinder his ability to get there:

How long will he play is pretty much what it comes down to for me. I never got the impression that Dunn was gonna make it to playing till he is 40 years old. I figured he would ge out of shape, or once he started playing below his prime production he would just abruptly retire or something. I just never seen him as someone who will hang on to the game for as long as possible.

I think he will bang out HRs at a high level as long he can then just collapse (like 2011) then abruptly retire. If he decides to stay in shape, playing DH he could put up 35+ anywhere from 1-6 more years.

But thats just it hes unpredictable imo.

Honestly I dont know what to expect from the guy he seems unpredictable to me after these last 2 seasons.

[Larkin88]

theres a large thread bringing up Adam Dunn's performance. Now getting into a debate of his HOF chances.

What does he need to do to get elected?
Can he do it?

I personally think 600 HRs is what he needs. hes 201 away at age 32.

Things in his favor are health, hes never had a serious injury. And consistency, minus last years fiasco of a season.

Moving forward things that I could hinder his ability to get there:

How long will he play is pretty much what it comes down to for me. I never got the impression that Dunn was gonna make it to playing till he is 40 years old. I figured he would ge out of shape, or once he started playing below his prime production he would just abruptly retire or something. I just never seen him as someone who will hang on to the game for as long as possible.

I think he will bang out HRs at a high level as long he can then just collapse (like 2011) then abruptly retire. If he decides to stay in shape, playing DH he could put up 35+ anywhere from 1-6 more years.

Definitely an interesting discussion on ORG. I don't think Dunn makes the hall, personally. I also don't think he'll continue a 35+ HR clip into his latter thirties to approach that 600 mark.

But as a guy who is a pretty big Adam Dunn fan, I hope I'm wrong on both counts.

[webbbj]

I agree. it will be interesting to see how fast he can get to 500. If he can do it w/in the next 3 seasons he may have a chance.

But then again he may only have 3 season left in him wheres hes hitting 30+ HRs. And I just never envisioned him as a guy that would play past his prime.

[Krawhitham]

I do not see him playing 6 more years of 33 HRs per

[Ironman92]

He's not anywhere close to the HOF....but 3 more seasons of what he does and it gets very interesting.

He's going to have HOF numbers in HR and BB.....can he get to 1500 RBI? 1500 runs?

If he gets past Mickey.....I think he can make it.

[jback76]

He had a lot of productive years with the Reds, so yes I can see him making into the Reds HOF.

[Ironman92]

He had a lot of productive years with the Reds, so yes I can see him making into the Reds HOF.

Oh....I doubt that. He struck out too much, only hit HR when we were up by more than 4 runs, all homers were with no one on base, terrible outfielder and was lazy.

[realistic]

good lord no

[jback76]

Oh....I doubt that. He struck out too much, only hit HR when we were up by more than 4 runs, all homers were with no one on base, terrible outfielder and was lazy.

Not lazy, just very relaxed and laid back.:)

[MrRedLegger]

I don't think he make it into the HOF. As the game gets older and more people get in, it lowers the bar for consideration into the hall. Sort of a "if this guy got in, surely this guy will" mentality. Just because a guy can eclipse one of a HOF's stats, (for example, Scott Rolen has more 2B than Babe Ruth) doesn't mean he's worthy of entry.

In my opinion, Dunn is a good hitter but has too much weighing him down from HOF admission.

[realistic]

2 time all star never been in top 20 of MVP vote. come on , you guys are delusional.

[Ironman92]

2 time all star never been in top 20 of MVP vote. come on , you guys are delusional.

Yeah....MVP voting isn't delusional...they would never vote a guy with 46 HR, 100+ RBI, 105 runs, 34 doubles, .956 OPS, 80 extra base hits....and gets 28th lol....and 6 of the guys that truly deserved to be ahead of him were known roiders.

[webbbj]

2 time all star never been in top 20 of MVP vote. come on , you guys are delusional.

i kind of agree. i know its early but i think its definitely w/in reason to think he ets to 600 HRs. Even if he got there, I dont think he will put any one individual season that would rank him aming the top 10-15 players in baseball.

[jhiller21]

I agree he gets to 500 homers, but with the low BA and OBP, I don't think he makes it. Not to mention the awful defense when playing here.

[jback76]

Oh, I think he makes it for sure. But he'll go in as a NATINAL!:laugh:

[Ironman92]

400

[The Rage]

I suspect Dunn will be retired in 3-5 years. Really see this year as a dead man's bounce power wise, declines and injuries there may make 500 difficult.

Dunn was alot like Sean Casey, I think think he could have done more if he put the work in. He just coasted.

[Ironman92]

I suspect Dunn will be retired in 3-5 years. Really see this year as a dead man's bounce power wise, declines and injuries there may make 500 difficult.

Dunn was alot like Sean Casey, I think think he could have done more if he put the work in. He just coasted.

God that's stupid. It's hard to imply injuries to a guy that hasn't been injured since 2003. Dunn came up in late July of 2001. There are ZERO players that came up after Dunn that have played in more games.

[Ironman92]

I suspect Dunn will be retired in 3-5 years. Really see this year as a dead man's bounce power wise, declines and injuries there may make 500 difficult.

Dunn was alot like Sean Casey, I think think he could have done more if he put the work in. He just coasted.

The dead man's bounce is dumb as well.....his whole career (9x) he has hit a HR every 14.5 AB or better and this year he has one a little over every 12 AB this year....in a HR ballpark. He was 1 every 14 playing in Washington.

While I do agree he could very well retire within 5 years (seems like the type that just walks away)....if he chooses, as a LH power-hitter....he could basically do what Jim Thome is doing still.

[jback76]

Injuries or how long his playing career lasts won't keep Dunn out of the HOF. What will keep him out is, he's not a good enough all around player. The only way he gets in is if he is the all time Homerun leader when he retires, and that'll never happen.

[Ironman92]

Injuries or how long his playing career lasts won't keep Dunn out of the HOF. What will keep him out is, he's not a good enough all around player. The only way he gets in is if he is the all time Homerun leader when he retires, and that'll never happen.

So if he gets to 763 he's in but 761 is a no? That makes great sense.

[jback76]

So if he gets to 763 he's in but 761 is a no? That makes great sense.

Arod will have the record by then, and Dunn won't come within 200 of whatever that record is at the time. Just my take on it, is all.

[Ironman92]

Longevity standard of 3,000 hits gets you in (with no HGH issues)...it just does.

3,000 hits is 70.4% of Pete's record of 4256.

If Arod gets to 800 (I think he falls a little short).....70.4% of that is the Reggie mark of 563.

All this aside....I'm a huge Dunn fan and to me the HOF is just too far away. #500 should start the discussion and 550+ it gets very interesting. 600 is just a complete lock for a non-HGH guy.....but right now we are just making projections that can go many many ways.

For 8 straight years he may have been the most consistent player of all-time....then he goes from the huge Nationals Park to homer friendly White Sox and hits 11 HR and bats .159? Not a person on the planet predicted that....and now in the same park...batting 3rd where he never has before and he's leading the majors in HR and pacing for 50....again, few would've predicted that. But his career has been one with a HR every 14 AB and incredible durability to play every day.

All we know now

1689 games played
972 runs scored
1400 hits
297 doubles
400 HR
1005 RBI
1151 walks

Age 32

[Goose]

If Dunn gets to 500 home runs and doesn't get in the Hall, it will partially be due to the steroid era devalueing HR's. 500 HR doesn't seem that many anymore because of all the juiced hitters the last 25 years or so.

[webbbj]

Arod will have the record by then, and Dunn won't come within 200 of whatever that record is at the time. Just my take on it, is all.

I highly doubt AROD gets the record. he has 5 more years on his contract and will be 42 at that point. Hes been injury prone the last 2 years and his HR/AB rate has been faling. Id say at best he has 100 more HRs in him if that.

[webbbj]

401. the countdown is on to 600. just 199 to go

[jback76]

I highly doubt AROD gets the record. he has 5 more years on his contract and will be 42 at that point. Hes been injury prone the last 2 years and his HR/AB rate has been faling. Id say at best he has 100 more HRs in him if that.

You may be right Arod might not set the record maybe Pujols. He's slightly less than 300 away as of today. My original point was that the only way Dunn is going to the HOF is if he holds some kind of MLB career record (not including strikeouts). He's just not a good enough player all around to make the HOF. 575, 1400 rbi's and a career .240 hitter will not get him in. I don't think great player when I think Adam Dunn. The HOF should be reserved for great players. Heck the HOF has players that IMO don't belong, what do I know maybe he'll be another.

[knuckleballah22]

as long as he stays healthy and keeps in shape then he should get into the HOF

[webbbj]

2 more Hrs last night upto 403 and on pace for his first 50 HR season

[BluegrassRedleg]

I think he could make a push to get into the conversation with a few more years like this, but a couple of things are going to hurt: (A) he's never really played in any game that mattered; and (B) he put up a lot of his numbers in the steroid era. Not that anyone's ever accused him of being linked to PEDs, but people just aren't blown away by those numbers the way they used to be.

Jim Thome's probably a good test comparison, and you just don't see many people mention Thome as a HOFer.

[Donder]

2 time all star never been in top 20 of MVP vote. come on , you guys are delusional.

I think his lack of all-star appearances makes this discussion almost silly. Is it 70 all-stars per year now? My opinion (for what it's worth), he's going to have to earn at least a couple more all-star appearances before he should even be discussed.

I wonder what the least number of all-star appearances for a Hall of Famer is (since the 1930s, naturally).

He's also never made it to the postseason. Although that's likely to change this year.

It will be interesting to see the path his career takes from here, no doubt.

[jback76]

The guy is hitting .207, Reds fans would be ready to run him out of town. We couldn't take his .240 when he was here. No to HOF.

[webbbj]

2 more HRS. Sitting at 406 for his career.

[smixsell]

Not a HOF'er, no matter how many more meaningless home runs he hits. :D (Yes, I am saying that many, if not most, of Dunn's career HRs have been meaningless. ) :)

[smixsell]

The guy is hitting .207, Reds fans would be ready to run him out of town. We couldn't take his .240 when he was here. No to HOF.

Nailed it.

[Ironman92]

Nailed it.

Chris Welsh's wife?