9/7/2012 Astros at Reds

[cumberlandreds]

Reds lineup per Fay. Cozart still out. Valdez in there. At least he's batting 8th. Rolen dealing with back issues too.


Brandon Phillips 4
Chris Heisey 8
Joey Votto 3
Ryan Ludwick 7
Jay Bruce 9
Todd Frazier 5
Dioner Navarro 2
Wilson Valdez 6
Homer Bailey 1

[cumberlandreds]

Whoops! Wrong date. Please change.

[oneupper]

What's with Cozart?

[GADawg]

Whoops! Wrong date. Please change.

got it...don't ever change Friday to any other day!

[Tom Servo]

Free Cozart!

[BCubb2003]

Sheldon and McCoy say Cozart has back pain, as does Rolen again.

[Brutus]

The Reds need to invest in magnet therapy, apparently.

Good to see Heisey in there again. I still think he's going to win the job if he's given more opportunities. He is what he is, but so is Stubbs. And after 800-900 PAs for Heisey, time to think he might be able to sustain a .750 OPS.

[Tom Servo]

Three pitches in and Altuve singles and steals second.


Paredes flies out to left.
Wallace K's on 3 pitches.

[Tom Servo]

Ugh. Maxwell homers.

2-0 Astros

[Plus Plus]

Something about Maxwell really grinds my gears. I don't like that guy one bit.

[RedsfaninMT]

This will be a tough game to come back and win. Harrell is no slouch from what I saw of the game in Houston.

[Tom Servo]

Homer really should have just walked Maxwell, I would have learned my lesson after the game in Houston about pitching to him.

[Kc61]

This will be a tough game to come back and win. Harrell is no slouch from what I saw of the game in Houston.

Harrell has trouble on the road, so it's doable.

Of course, even if the Reds score some runs it's no guarantee.

Bailey is terrible at GABP. Pitch to Maxwell was a gift.

[SirFelixCat]

Home Harrell is good. Road Harrell, notsomuch.

[Brutus]

The Homer/Leake teeter-totter is making me nauseous.

[Tom Servo]

BP single
Heisey infield single

[Kc61]

The Homer/Leake teeter-totter is making me nauseous.

I agree. I'm somewhat more sympathetic to Leake who has less major league experience. But they both are maddening in their inconsistency.

[Plus Plus]

Back-to-back singles for Phillips and Heisey, giving Baker a reason to believe in his new lineup construction.

[Brutus]

Back-to-back singles for Phillips and Heisey, giving Baker a reason to believe in his new lineup construction.

..and the people rejoice!

[Kc61]

For those who think strikeouts are irrelevant.

Heisey just tapped that one and it's a base hit.

That doesn't happen with a Stubbs K.

[Brutus]

I agree. I'm somewhat more sympathetic to Leake who has less major league experience. But they both are maddening in their inconsistency.

Agreed. And I also prefer Leake because of the additional ability to induce grounders more consistently.

[Tom Servo]

4 pitch walk to Votto. Bases juiced.

[Kc61]

Agreed. And I also prefer Leake because of the additional ability to induce grounders more consistently.

Yes, but Leake has to pitch that way more frequently.

There are games when Leake isn't quite the ground ball machine.

It's a great skill, but he needs to be more consistent with it.

[Tom Servo]

Ludwick singles.

2-2 game.

[Plus Plus]

Ludwick singles to tie the game!

[Kc61]

LOL, one pitcher is bad at home, one is bad on the road. The perfect storm.

[OldRightHander]

For those who think strikeouts are irrelevant.

Heisey just tapped that one and it's a base hit.

That doesn't happen with a Stubbs K.

And when just making contact ends up a 6-4-3?

[Tom Servo]

Bruce smokes one but it's a line drive out to center.

[Plus Plus]

Bruce hits a liner to center that hangs up for Maxwell. One out, two on.

Welsh: "That's the hardest hit ball this inning, and it's an out."

[Tom Servo]

Frazier GIDP.

Back to a tie game after 1.

[OldRightHander]

Listening over the internet...read it way before I hear it.

[OldRightHander]

I'm glad he made contact rather than striking out there.

[Brutus]

Yes, but Leake has to pitch that way more frequently.

There are games when Leake isn't quite the ground ball machine.

It's a great skill, but he needs to be more consistent with it.

His career GB/FB rate is 1.63. That's pretty difficult to maintain without some sort of consistency IMHO.

[Kc61]

And when just making contact ends up a 6-4-3?

You're right. Contact is bad. It could turn out to be a double play.

Sure.

[OldRightHander]

You're right. Contact is bad. It could turn out to be a double play.

Sure.

Well, if you look at the micro, a lot of assumptions can be made. Sometimes a k is better and sometimes contact is better, depending on the situation. Over a whole season...

[Tom Servo]

1-2-3 for Homer, that's more like it.

[Brutus]

Well, if you look at the micro, a lot of assumptions can be made. Sometimes a k is better and sometimes contact is better, depending on the situation. Over a whole season...

If you drive to a destination, you could also get in a car accident and never get there. But is that a reason to sit stationary and not go out?

There's a risk in a lot of things we do, but if you didn't do things based on the small chance of the worst outcome happening, you'd not lead a very exciting life.

[Kc61]

His career GB/FB rate is 1.63. That's pretty difficult to maintain without some sort of consistency IMHO.

Leake has allowed 23 homers this year. The most in the NL is Ian Kennedy with 27.

That's not the hallmark of a true groundball pitcher IMO.

[Tom Servo]

1-2-3 inning for Harrell, AstrosZone probably saying "that's more like it".

[Kc61]

Well, if you look at the micro, a lot of assumptions can be made. Sometimes a k is better and sometimes contact is better, depending on the situation. Over a whole season...

Yes, contact can result in a double play. You are right.

Thanks.

[OnBaseMachine]

I feel like 90% of Maxwell's homers have been against the Reds. I never feel comfortable when Bailey or Leake are on the mound.

[Brutus]

Leake has allowed 23 homers this year. The most in the NL is Ian Kennedy with 27.

That's not the hallmark of a true groundball pitcher IMO.

He's got a 1.85:1 GB:FB ratio. That's 15th in the entire Major Leagues. I'd say that's absolutely the hallmark of a groundball pitcher.

The homers are because of a 17% HR/FB rate, not because of giving up more fly balls. Only two pitchers in the majors have given up a higher rate of homers to fly balls allowed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

[Tom Servo]

Homer got two quick outs, and then Paredes singles, a pickoff throw error advances him to second, and Wallace walks.


Now Maxwell up again. He grounds out to 2nd on the first pitch.

still 2-2

[BCubb2003]

1-2-3 inning for Harrell, AstrosZone probably saying "that's more like it".

AstrosZone is a lifeless planet.

[Brutus]

In wildcard news, Pittsburgh is losing to the Cubbies four-nil

[Tom Servo]

BP and Hi-C both K looking.

[Tadasimha]

BP and Hi-C both K looking.

Got to start swinging at those borderline pitches.

[Kc61]

He's got a 1.85:1 GB:FB ratio. That's 15th in the entire Major Leagues. I'd say that's absolutely the hallmark of a groundball pitcher.

The homers are because of a 17% HR/FB rate, not because of giving up more fly balls. Only two pitchers in the majors have given up a higher rate of homers to fly balls allowed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

A groundball pitcher needs a good ratio AND needs to keep the ball in the stadium.

[Tadasimha]

A groundball pitcher needs a good ratio AND needs to keep the ball in the stadium.

Every pitcher needs to keep the ball in the stadium

[Tom Servo]

Votto the Canadian God of Walks.

[Tadasimha]

Votto the Canadian God of Walks.

What's an appropriate sacrifice for the Canadian God Of Walks?

[Wonderful Monds]

What's an appropriate sacrifice for the Canadian God Of Walks?

A maple tree or a hockey player

[Tom Servo]

Ludwick flies out. 57 pitches for Harrell after 3.

[BCubb2003]

A maple tree

One of those maple bats that breaks easily anyway?

[Virginia Beach Reds]

Now when Votto is on base, I hold my breath similar to what I had to do when Griffey was on base a few years ago.

[mbgrayson]

BP and Hi-C both K looking.

Are the #1 and #2 slots jinxed? (I know, they both got hits first time through...)

[Kc61]

Every pitcher needs to keep the ball in the stadium

Some pitchers can compensate for a higher home run rate. Mat Latos has the same 23 homers allowed but has 158 strikeouts and other very favorable stats that compensate.

The concept of a ground ball pitcher IMO is a guy who gets a lot of outs on the ground and does not allow many homers. Such a pitcher usually can't get away with 23 homers at this point in the season.

[Brutus]

Some pitchers can compensate for a higher home run rate. Mat Latos has the same 23 homers allowed but has 158 strikeouts and other very favorable stats that compensate.

The concept of a ground ball pitcher IMO is a guy who gets a lot of outs on the ground and does not allow many homers. Such a pitcher usually can't get away with 23 homers at this point in the season.

You avoid homers by giving up fewer fly balls. You don't have a ton of influence over your HR/FB rate. Perhaps a little, but not much. Most guys generally hover around 10-11%.

He's giving up almost 2 grounders for every fly ball. If he were giving up a normal rate of homers to fly balls, that number would be in the range of 13-15 homers which is why his xFIP is 3.71. Latos, despite his strikeouts, has an xFIP of 3.83.

[Tom Servo]

It's almost like night and day between Homer at Minute Minute and Homer at GABP against the same Astros team. I mean the Maxwell homer part is the same but he was much more efficient, more comfortable at Houston than in this game.

[Tom Servo]

Frazier with the EE special. Great pick, and then airmails the throw. Inning continues.

[Kc61]

Reds aren't playing very well tonight.

[Tom Servo]

Reds aren't playing very well tonight.
They haven't played very well since the calendar turned to September. Hopefully this first week isn't how the rest of the month is going to be.

[Tom Servo]

No additional damage (outside of a few extra pitches) done as Homer K's the next guy to end the frame.

[Brutus]

Strasburg gave up 5 runs on 9 baserunners in his last home start of the season tonight. He lasted only 3 innings against the Marlins. The Nats trail 6-2.

[Kc61]

You avoid homers by giving up fewer fly balls. You don't have a ton of influence over your HR/FB rate. Perhaps a little, but not much. Most guys generally hover around 10-11%.

He's giving up almost 2 grounders for every fly ball. If he were giving up a normal rate of homers to fly balls, that number would be in the range of 13-15 homers which is why his xFIP is 3.71. Latos, despite his strikeouts, has an xFIP of 3.83.

Leake's xFIP is ok because the stat essentially ignores homers allowed by neutralizing them according to a league average rate.

That's fine, it's one metric.

But I maintain that a pitcher like Leake will never survive in the big leagues allowing 23 homers by early September.

[Tom Servo]

Dominguez with a very Astros-like whiff on a backhand attempt to give Frazier a 1 out single.


Navarro singles.

[Kc61]

I've felt that Altuve is the most effective position player on the Astros. He's out of this ballgame.

So the Reds are playing the Astros, without arguably their best player, at home, with Votto back.

Perhaps the Reds can win under these circumstances.

[Tom Servo]

Valdez FC, runner out at 2nd. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs for Homer.

[Brutus]

Leake's xFIP is ok because the stat essentially ignores homers allowed by neutralizing them according to a league average rate.

That's fine, it's one metric.

But I maintain that a pitcher like Leake will never survive in the big leagues allowing 23 homers by early September.

His SIERA, which accounts for batted ball types, also has him at a 3.90 predicted ERA.

If he keeps up his current K, walk and groundball rates, he would be expected to be a sub-4 pitcher going forward. That will survive for a long career. I don't want to act like all of those homers are a product of bad luck, but a 17% HR/FB rate is not something that would be sustained for a long period of time. I don't think it's ever been done for longer than a season, in fact.

[Tom Servo]

Homer hits it well but lines out to right.

2-2 after 4.

[nate]

I didn't know Heisey was spelled with a "D!"

[Tom Servo]

nice diving catch by Heisey

[Brutus]

"Stubbs would have got that."

[Plus Plus]

What did Bailey yell about after the strikeout there?

[lollipopcurve]

I love the fact Heisey dives for balls. That was a superb catch, right off the top of the grass. Stubbs does not make that play, IMO.

[Tom Servo]

1-2-3 inning for Homer

[Kc61]

His SIERA, which accounts for batted ball types, also has him at a 3.90 predicted ERA.

If he keeps up his current K, walk and groundball rates, he would be expected to be a sub-4 pitcher going forward. That will survive for a long career. I don't want to act like all of those homers are a product of bad luck, but a 17% HR/FB rate is not something that would be sustained for a long period of time. I don't think it's ever been done for longer than a season, in fact.

Leake also has by far the highest line drive rate against him of any Reds pitcher, except Redmond. 26.1 percent. Nobody else is close.

If you want the last word, you can have it. I'm done discussing Leake.

[Brutus]

Leake also has by far the highest line drive rate against him of any Reds pitcher, except Redmond. 26.1 percent. Nobody else is close.

If you want the last word, you can have it. I'm done discussing Leake.

And again, SIERA takes that into account (the line drive rate).

[Tom Servo]

Well that was one of the more odd routine groundouts you'll see.



Heisey triples!

[Kc61]

Heisey playing really well right now. Intentional walk to Votto.

Rain on its way, perhaps Reds can find a way to score some runs.

Ludwick will try.

[Brutus]

Heisey's OPS now up to .770.

[WebScorpion]

Intentional walk to Votto.

Do they know Joey is coming back from an injury?? :confused:

[Tom Servo]

Intentional walk to Votto, unintentional walk to Ludwick. Bases juiced for Boss.

[REDSEER]

Radar does not look pretty. Need to get at least one here.

[Kc61]

Do they know Joey is coming back from an injury?? :confused:

Votto's been on base in two games more than some of the bench guys all year.

[Tom Servo]

I'm with Welsh. I'm 22 and Doug Brocail being the Astros pitching coach makes ME feel old.

[Tom Servo]

Bruce with a bloop single!

3-2 Reds. Bases still loaded.

[Kc61]

Reds lead. Now stall.

[Red in Chicago]

Ugly dp there. Wow

[Tom Servo]

Yeesh. Ugly double play as Ludwick slipped and they first get the out at home then tag Ludwick out. Inning suddenly over.

[Brutus]

It seems that they'll probably get another inning or two in before the rain gets there.

[Kc61]

It seems that they'll probably get another inning or two in before the rain gets there.

I would aggressively get the bullpen ready. Bailey doesn't look too good right now, and this could be a short game.

[Tom Servo]

sit Downs

[Kc61]

Give Homer props getting the strikeout on a 13 pitch at bat.

[WebScorpion]

I would aggressively get the bullpen ready. Bailey doesn't look too good right now, and this could be a short game.How can you say that? He just threw nine 3-2 strikes to a guy who kept fouling everything off. He did not give in and struck him out on the 13th pitch. :thumbup: IMHO, he looks great!

That said, I'd still take him out just to save wear and tear on him and let him get out with a lead.

[Tom Servo]

Homer finally out of the long inning. He's over 100 pitches though, I wouldn't send him back out.

[Tadasimha]

Cubs jumping all over Pittsburgh - 7-0 top of the 6th

[Kc61]

Homer finally out of the long inning. He's over 100 pitches though, I wouldn't send him back out.

Interesting judgment call whether to bring Homer back out next inning. He came back strong there, and sometimes is good later in games, but he's over 100, the bullpen is rested, he's worked hard this game.

Wonder if Dusty will bring him out again.

Guess Bailey is staying in.

[Tom Servo]

Homer batting for himself with 2 outs.

[WebScorpion]

He's at 102 pitches...I hope he's on a short leash.

[Tom Servo]

Homer K's to end the frame. 104 pitches for Harrell.


Homer almost certainly coming back out. I just don't trust him here with just a 1 run lead. Hope I'm wrong.

[Kc61]

Homer K's to end the frame. 104 pitches for Harrell.


Homer almost certainly coming back out. I just don't trust him here with just a 1 run lead. Hope I'm wrong.

Bottom of the Astros order coming up, although there could be pinch hitters. 8, 9, and 1.

[Tadasimha]

Homer K's to end the frame. 104 pitches for Harrell.


Homer almost certainly coming back out. I just don't trust him here with just a 1 run lead. Hope I'm wrong.

Not so sure - Dusty has done this before: let the pitcher bat and then bring in the reliever to save a bat on the bench.

annnnd now I'm sure - Homer still in.

[Tom Servo]

Back to back K's for Homer for the first 2 outs

[WVRedsFan]

Another rookie pitcher and another run-starved game. Bailey is dealing, though.

[Tadasimha]

Homer looking good so far

[Brutus]

If Homer can get this last out, I will consider it a great success (in my best Borat voice).

[Tom Servo]

Dominguez singles to right.

[Tom Servo]

Homie done, Marshall in.

[Tadasimha]

Solid outing from Homer

[BCubb2003]

Bailey moves ahead of Leake in our hearts.

[Kc61]

Love watching Marshall's curve. Not saying it's a super pitch, just a lot of fun to watch.

[Tom Servo]

Paredes grounds out to end the inning. Marshall had him tied up in knots that at-bat.

[Kc61]

Cubs way up on Bucs. But Nats now within one of Miami, 6-5.

The Nationals are extremely tough and well managed. Reds will have to be at the top of their game to beat them out this year.

Cards in rain delay still.

[WebScorpion]

Love watching Marshall's curve. Not saying it's a super pitch, just a lot of fun to watch.Yeah, it looks a lot like Bugs Bunny's curve.;) Quite entertaining. :D

[Tadasimha]

Yeah, it looks a lot like Bugs Bunny's curve.;) Quite entertaining. :D

Paredes wasn't enjoying it much!

[Gallen5862]

Thanks for the PBP.

[Brutus]

I really wish they'd get these last four frames over with. The rain is still about a half hour or 45 mins. off, but I'd hate to have to wait a couple of hours to finish up one inning.

[cincrazy]

Another rookie pitcher and another run-starved game. Bailey is dealing, though.

Harrell is really good my friend. It's not a shame only touching him for three runs.

[WVRedsFan]

Harrell is really good my friend. It's not a shame only touching him for three runs.

Yeah. Just hoping he was a fluke.

[Tom Servo]

BP flies out
Heisey with a bloop single. 3 hit night for Hi-C.

[Tadasimha]

Dropped that one right between three fielders

[WVRedsFan]

Heisey getting hot just when we need it.

[Kc61]

Heisey looks like the best player on the team tonight.

[WVRedsFan]

Heisey looks like the best player on the team tonight.

Which is perplexing to say the least.

[Tom Servo]

Votto finally makes an out, flies out to left.

[Kc61]

Which is perplexing to say the least.

He's a perplexing player. Some years he hits righties, some years he hits lefties. He doesn't do that well when playing regularly. He does great playing semi-regularly.

He dives for balls and messes up. He dives for balls and makes great plays. UZR says he's good in CF. Reds apparently don't think he's that good.

Looks good tonight.

[Virginia Beach Reds]

Votto finally makes an out, flies out to left.

only a matter of time for Votto. That was a nice swing. He is acting a little gingerly on that knee IMO.

[WVRedsFan]

When Beethoven swings, he swings. Wow

[Tom Servo]

Marshall gets another lefty out to start the 8th, and now here's Broxton.


Hey remember when they talked about saving Chapman and letting Broxton finish some games? Yeah, about that...guess nobody told Dusty.

[Brutus]

Marshall gets another lefty out to start the 8th, and now here's Broxton.


Hey remember when they talked about saving Chapman and letting Broxton finish some games? Yeah, about that...guess nobody told Dusty.

Chapman has had quite a few days off these past couple of weeks though. He's only pitched seven times in the past three weeks.

[Tom Servo]

Chapman has had quite a few days off these past couple of weeks though. He's only pitched seven times in the past three weeks.
Oh I know. I'm not blaming anybody, I just think it was kinda silly to pretend like it was ever a real scenario that Broxton would take saves from Chapman.

[Tom Servo]

Martinez HBP with 2 outs. Pinch runner Bogusevic swipes 2nd. Tying run in scoring position.

[Brutus]

The Cubs are raping Pittsburgh 12-0

[Tom Servo]

Castro K's.

3-2 Reds to the bottom of 8.

[Reds Fanatic]

The Cubs are raping Pittsburgh 12-0

Not only that the Pirates have actually committed 7 errrors in that game and have only 1 hit.

[OesterPoster]

The Cubs are raping Pittsburgh 12-0

Pirates still have a chance at finishing under .500?

[PuffyPig]

Heisey looks like the best player on the team tonight.

let's not get too excited over a great triple sandwiched around a bleeder and a bloop.

[Brutus]

Pirates still have a chance at finishing under .500?

They'll be 72-65 after tonight, so it's certainly possible.

[Reds Fanatic]

Pirates still have a chance at finishing under .500?

I think the Pirates will finish behind the Brewers in the division

[Brutus]

let's not get too excited over a great triple sandwiched around a bleeder and a bloop.

The bleeder and the bloop alone is more hits than anyone else on the team. Throw in the triple, and he's got two more hits than any other Red with a couple of nice defensive plays to boot.

[OesterPoster]

They'll be 72-65 after tonight, so it's certainly possible.

9-16 to finish .500 doesn't seem completely unlikely for them, with the way they're playing right now.

[WVRedsFan]

:beerme:
The bleeder and the bloop alone is more hits than anyone else on the team. Throw in the triple, and he's got two more hits than any other Red with a couple of nice defensive plays to boot.

I'll take this Heisey over the one we've seen most of the year. I do not expect it to last, however.

[OesterPoster]

That rain looks awfully close. Maybe 20 minutes?

[PuffyPig]

the Pirates are +4 in RD.

Big surprise.

[Brutus]

That rain looks awfully close. Maybe 20 minutes?

Radar estimates it for about 10:20 or 10:30, so that's about right.

[Reds Fanatic]

That rain looks awfully close. Maybe 20 minutes?

It is really closing in. Storms are pretty much covering most of the western part of Ohio except for Cincinnati

[kaldaniels]

the Pirates are +4 in RD.

Big surprise.

Wow that really went down lately.

[Brutus]

:beerme:

I'll take this Heisey over the one we've seen most of the year. I do not expect it to last, however.

Heisey's OPS is up to .774 in 310 plate appearances. His career OPS is .772 in over 800 PAs. This is basically the same Chris Heisey he's been for most of his career.

[PuffyPig]

Wow that really went down lately.

Tonight

[Reds Fanatic]

Cards are still in a rain delay that has been going almost 2 hours so far.

[OesterPoster]

Ton of high school football games got partially completed tonight, with play resuming tomorrow.

[Tom Servo]

3-2 Reds to the 9th

[Brutus]

OK so hopefully Chapman makes quick work and this game will end before the rains set in.

[OesterPoster]

OK so hopefully Chapman makes quick work and this game will end before the rains set in.

And I hope the umpires are aware of this. ;)

[Reds Fanatic]

Nice catch by Navarro

[Tom Servo]

I'm liking Dioner Navarro :)

[klw]

That rain looks awfully close. Maybe 20 minutes?

I think it is a bit longer than that. My guess is that the radar is showing some of the blowoff from the storms to the rest as rain but the rain is probably a bit further back. Still best if Chapman blows throw them.

[Reds Fanatic]

Bloop hit to right.

[Tom Servo]

well this isn't good

[Reds Fanatic]

Uh oh. Another bloop hit. 1st and 3rd.

[WVRedsFan]

Not throwing heat.

[Wonderful Monds]

I had a bad feeling when Welsh said "unfortunately" the Astros bottom of the order was up.

[Tom Servo]

awww jesus :(

[Wonderful Monds]

****

[Reds Fanatic]

Wow. a 3 run homer.

[WVRedsFan]

Oh well. Sucks

[Tadasimha]

Crap

[cincrazy]

Wasn't expecting that.

[Reds Fanatic]

first blown save by Chapman since June 24th.

[klw]

Feel bad for Bailey there.

[oregonred]

Simply unbelieveable. Baseball makes zero sense sometimes...

[Tom Servo]

and to the Astros :(

[Wonderful Monds]

I had a bad feeling when Welsh said "unfortunately" the Astros bottom of the order was up.

Seems I was correct in that feeling.

[Tadasimha]

Doesn't look like Chapman has his stuff tonight.

Sucks for Homer - he deserved the win.

[klw]

hopefully this isn't a stretch of bad Chapman about to show up

[WebScorpion]

Not throwing heat.98 coming in...100+ going out. :(

[Wonderful Monds]

Excellent slider there.

[WVRedsFan]

Knew he was having trouble when he was throwing 96 instead of 99+. Gotta hope the Cardinals lose.

[Reds Fanatic]

Another hit on a 94 MPH fastball. 4 hits this inning.

[oregonred]

Time to wakeup the offense from its week long slumber. Maybe this will give them a wakeup call.

[Wonderful Monds]

Velocity down. Very hittable.

[BCubb2003]

hopefully this isn't a stretch of bad Chapman about to show up

Yea, but it might as well happen now.

[kaldaniels]

Chilling turn of events...

[NJReds]

Bound to happen, and less than stellar stuff tonight. But the Reds offense should have put this game out of reach early.

[kbrake]

Just hit 94 on the gun. What the heck?

[mbgrayson]

Doesn't look like Chapman has his stuff tonight.

Sucks for Homer - he deserved the win.

One of the few outings were Ryan Hanigan didn't catch Chapman. Just a coincidence?

[WVRedsFan]

Doesn't look like Chapman has his stuff tonight.

Sucks for Homer - he deserved the win.

When your offense struggles like tonight, this is possible. We should have scored more than three runs, bottom line.

[Tom Servo]

They really need to be better than this. September is not the time to let your guard down.

[WVRedsFan]

84? Wow.

[Kc61]

They really need to be better than this. September is not the time to let your guard down.

Much more worried about the offense than Chapman. Aroldis is probably just rusty, hasn't had a lot of use lately.

But Reds can't afford a team hitting funk right now.

[dman]

I don't like losing, but I really hate losing to a AAA team.

[oregonred]

Only 23K at the park tonight. Team playing to he low energy level of the fan support this week.

[cincrazy]

Every time he blows a save or even gives up a hit, everyone from Redszone message posters to Chris Welsh wonders "what's wrong with him!!!???" The answer? He's human. Some nights some guys don't have it. Even the best of them.

[kaldaniels]

Every time he blows a save or even gives up a hit, everyone from Redszone message posters to Chris Welsh wonders "what's wrong with him!!!???" The answer? He's human. Some nights some guys don't have it. Even the best of them.

Velocity.

[Tom Servo]

Much more worried about the offense than Chapman. Aroldis is probably just rusty, hasn't had a lot of use lately.

But Reds can't afford a team hitting funk right now.
I'm referring to the team in general. It's only been a week, but they've gone L-W-L-W-L, and tonight could be another L. They're just playing average or below thus far.

[klw]

Hope this inning goes PH, PH to start

[Brutus]

Bound to happen, sure, though it absolutely boggles the mind to happen against a team 14-55 on the road.

[REDSEER]

Every time he blows a save or even gives up a hit, everyone from Redszone message posters to Chris Welsh wonders "what's wrong with him!!!???" The answer? He's human. Some nights some guys don't have it. Even the best of them.

Agreed. If not for two broken bat bloops, we aren't having this discussion.

However, the drop in velocity that we've seen in his last few outings is at least a little bit worrying.

[WebScorpion]

Maybe they'll let Francisco Cordero pitch the 9th. ;)

[mbgrayson]

Many games where Mesoraco caught till the 9th Dusty brought in Ryan Hanigan to catch Chapman. Didn't do it tonight. More trust for Navarro...might not be warranted.

[George Foster]

His arm is dead...his last fastballs were 93-94mph. I'm concerned. That's 8-9mph under what we have seen all year.

houston set to win only their 15th road game all year.

[oregonred]

Odds on Valdez batting??

[mbgrayson]

Maybe they'll let Francisco Cordero pitch the 9th. ;)

He is on the DL.

[WrongVerb]

He is on the DL.

Safest place for him.

[Tom Servo]

oh Cairo, fantastic.

[Reds Fanatic]

Cairo hitting for Valdez

[Reds Fanatic]

Nice we catch a break as the ball hits the base at 3rd.

[WVRedsFan]

Lucky duck

[Tom Servo]

Many games where Mesoraco caught till the 9th Dusty brought in Ryan Hanigan to catch Chapman. Didn't do it tonight. More trust for Navarro...might not be warranted.
I don't know if you are watching the game, but Navarro is a total non-factor here. It's Chapman.

[REDSEER]

Pleeeeeeease, please, get Votto up this inning...!

[WrongVerb]

oh Cairo, fantastic.

Miguel Cairo, pinch hitter extraordinaire.

[oregonred]

When things don't go according to plan, Dusty really does funny. What a huge break!

[WVRedsFan]

No DP, please

[kaldaniels]

Hey Miguel if you are the 24th man you might want to consider hustling out of the box.

[Reds Fanatic]

Paul hitting for Chapman

[Tom Servo]

No DP, please
:(

[Reds Fanatic]

Ouch. 4-6-3 DP.

[WVRedsFan]

Shucks.

[REDSEER]

:thumbdown:

[oregonred]

On a 2-0 count too.... What an inning.

[Tadasimha]

No DP, please

You jinxed them!

[Reds Fanatic]

Infield hit for Phillips

[Tom Servo]

oh stop with the teasing here Redlegs, you're just trying to get me upset.

[HokieRed]

On a 2-0 count too.... What an inning.

Given who's at the plate and Phillips next, he should have had a take.

[WVRedsFan]

Good night to gain ground, but an anemic offense ruins it. Really sad against this bunch. Sad.

[kaldaniels]

Lean into one here Chris. :D

[Kc61]

Pretty irritating loss.

[Tom Servo]

Well this sucked something fierce. Incredibly depressing.

[WVRedsFan]

You jinxed them!

No, I was afraid of that since he is a banjo hitter. A good one nonetheless. Game over. Missed opportunity.

[Reds Fanatic]

That is it. Reds lose 5-3.

[George Foster]

that's a bad loss...a real bad loss.

[Red in Chicago]

What is the Reds record against the Astros this year?

[oregonred]

Wake up call time Redlegs.

[cincrazy]

He was just throwing 100 an outing or two ago. And was throwing 98 tonight. So a few pitches were 94. Who cares? Means nothing. Maybe he's just tired.

[Tom Servo]

What is the Reds record against the Astros this year?
Not as good as it should be.

[WVRedsFan]

Score some runs. That's the remedy.

[oregonred]

More importantly lets hope Chapman is ok. The offense will wake up tomorrow. Guys have to be PO'd about this one.

[Brutus]

He was just throwing 100 an outing or two ago. And was throwing 98 tonight. So a few pitches were 94. Who cares? Means nothing. Maybe he's just tired.

He might not even be tired. Some nights guys just don't get warmed up and getting their velocity like normal. Like you said, just one or two outings ago, he was hitting 100. The doomsday scenarios are pointless unless it's something that manifests itself over several more appearances.

[kaldaniels]

He was just throwing 100 an outing or two ago. And was throwing 98 tonight. So a few pitches were 94. Who cares? Means nothing. Maybe he's just tired.

Means nothing? I'm not panicking but certainly the situation needs to be monitored.

[PuffyPig]

Given who's at the plate and Phillips next, he should have had a take.

Considering the pitcher has walked about 7 guys this year and was sure to throw a strike. Which he did and Paul stung it. It happens.

[George Foster]

He was just throwing 100 an outing or two ago. And was throwing 98 tonight. So a few pitches were 94. Who cares? Means nothing. Maybe he's just tired.

no..they mentioned it has been several outings since he hit 100. Going to 94 is a big deal. If he normally threw 90 and was down to 81 we all would be saying what the heck was wrong...same thing.

There is such a thing as the dead arm syndrome... How is he tired? Not pitched since Tuesday night.

[cincrazy]

Means nothing? I'm not panicking but certainly the situation needs to be monitored.

As Brutus stated, if this turns into a trend, then you run some tests. Otherwise it's not a big deal.

[oregonred]

The doomsday scenarios.

Losing two of three to the Astros? Stubbs saved them a month ago or else they could be 3-4 against this ragtag outfit in the last three series. For some reason the Astros just seem to be causing us (and only us) unnecessary worry recently.

[Wonderful Monds]

As Brutus stated, if this turns into a trend, then you run some tests. Otherwise it's not a big deal.

I say with such an important player, you run them now.

[Reds Fanatic]

What is the Reds record against the Astros this year?

Now 9-4 for the year.

[George Foster]

We are all Brewer fans tonight. They are about to get started.

[Tom Servo]

Losing two of three to the Astros? Stubbs saved them a month ago or else they could be 3-4 against this ragtag outfit in the last three series. For some reason the Astros just seem to be causing us (and only us) unnecessary worry recently.
This. I've said it before, and I still do think the Reds can beat any team in the NL. But when you can't take care of business against Houston, it makes me begin to really doubt if you can put away a team like Washington or San Francisco when it really matters.

[cincrazy]

I say with such an important player, you run them now.

Really? Over one game? He was topping out at 98. I don't think that screams emergency. If he was throwing 92 and topping out at 94 like he was last year for a stretch, I'd be a lot more worried.

Bottom line: we're up 8 (pending outcome of Cards game tonight) with 24 to play. Pretty good shape I'd say. This loss sucks. But in the long run, probably means nothing.

[Brutus]

no..they mentioned it has been several outings since he hit 100. Going to 94 is a big deal. If he normally threw 90 and was down to 81 we all would be saying what the heck was wrong...same thing.

There is such a thing as the dead arm syndrome... How is he tired? Not pitched since Tuesday night.

This has been the case all year. Chapman has been hitting higher velocities after pitching on a second straight or third straight appearance. His velocity has been lower with several days off. He's only pitched 7 times in the last three weeks. It's possible that all the time off has caused him to have a harder time getting up near 100.

By the way, Chapman's average speed on Tuesday was 98 MPH with a max of 100.