9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

[Reds Fanatic]

Reds lineup:

Phillips 4
Stubbs 8
Votto 3
Ludwick 7
Bruce 9
Rolen 5
Navarro 2
Valdez 6
Leake 1

[Reds Fanatic]

Cubs lineup:

David DeJesus RF
Darwin Barney 2B
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Alfonso Soriano LF
Starlin Castro SS
Luis Valbuena 3B
Welington Castillo C
Brett Jackson CF,
Chris Rusin P

[Jefferson24]

once again Stubbs over Heisey.

[Tom Servo]

Once again Valdez over Gregorious.

[PuffyPig]

Stubbs has generally hit extremely well against Chicago. I'm sure they are trying everything to get him going.

With Valdez, it must mean they have already decided Valdez is the back up MI for the playoffs and want to give him as many AB's as possible.

[Jefferson24]

Stubbs has generally hit extremely well against Chicago. I'm sure they are trying everything to get him going.



I think the book is in on Stubbs and he is what he is, no more, possibly less. No reason to believe he will all of a sudden transform into something he has never been. He can string a few good games together but it just doesn't last.

[Kc61]

Stubbs has generally hit extremely well against Chicago. I'm sure they are trying everything to get him going.

With Valdez, it must mean they have already decided Valdez is the back up MI for the playoffs and want to give him as many AB's as possible.

I've been looking at some stats today. There's a very solid argument that Stubbs has been the worst hitter in the National League among full season regulars at any position (excluding pitchers) this season.

I too hope they get him going. Agree that Valdez will be on the post-season roster.

[Hollcat]

I've been looking at some stats today. There's a very solid argument that Stubbs has been the worst hitter in the National League among full season regulars at any position (excluding pitchers) this season.

I too hope they get him going. Agree that Valdez will be on the post-season roster.

I just asssumed that about Stubbs. I'd like to see the arguments for his competition.

[Brutus]

I just asssumed that about Stubbs. I'd like to see the arguments for his competition.

Well, only 18 players with at least 300 plate appearances have a lower OPS than Stubbs. Among all players with at least 500, he's the worst. Only two of those players in front of him (Justin Smoak and Casey Kotchman) have at least 450 PAs.

So Stubbs is definitely in the running. My vote, though, probably goes to Brendan Ryan. He has a .544 OPS in 440 PAs, though it should be noted he plays in Safeco and at shortstop, so his numbers are at a suppressed position and in a suppressed park.

[alloverjr]

Once again Valdez over Gregorious.

Lefty throwing. Last night made little sense though.

[RedsMan3203]

Great, a soft tossing lefty tonight.

[RedsMan3203]

Stubbs is 1 for 1... :)

[alloverjr]

Thanks Cubs...

[RedsMan3203]

Joey?

[alloverjr]

Send in the clowns

1-0 Reds after a half

[Tom Servo]

Send in the clowns

1-0 Reds after a half
Circus Theme music - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D5Sa2Yq-2g)

[Brutus]

Three grounders for Leake. Love to see that.

[Kc61]

Well, only 18 players with at least 300 plate appearances have a lower OPS than Stubbs. Among all players with at least 500, he's the worst. Only two of those players in front of him (Justin Smoak and Casey Kotchman) have at least 450 PAs.

So Stubbs is definitely in the running. My vote, though, probably goes to Brendan Ryan. He has a .544 OPS in 440 PAs, though it should be noted he plays in Safeco and at shortstop, so his numbers are at a suppressed position and in a suppressed park.

Just from memory, I plugged in 450 PAs National League in Fangraphs. If I recall correctly, Stubbs was last in SLG, OBP, wOBA, and BA. He was next to last in hits, although McCann had one fewer hit and had about 40 fewer PAs.

I probably didn't pick up Brendan Ryan because I used 450 PAs. So there are issues as to which players are included in the sample. Again, this is just from memory, I didn't go back to look again. I used 450 PAs because I was looking for full time starting players for the whole season.

But at this point, if Drew does ok in the playoffs, all is well. He does play a good CF in my opinion.

[Kc61]

Rolen with a hit that Barney couldn't handle. Gold glove indeed.

[RedsMan3203]

GIDP.... INning over.

[RedsMan3203]

6 ground outs to start the game for Leake.

Inning Over, 1-0 Reds

[alloverjr]

WTH

[RedsMan3203]

Leake should bat lead off.....

[RedsMan3203]

Welcome back to the RBI chart Joey... 2 RBI single.

[Tom Servo]

Votto making up for lost RBI time.

[Brutus]

Leake should bat lead off.....

That inning, the Reds essentially had their pitcher leading off the inning and their leadoff man batting second.

[dman]

Repeat what you did on Mother's Day against the Nats Joey.

[RedsMan3203]

RBI Single for Luddy... Brrrrrrrrrrother!

[RedsMan3203]

3 run 3rd for the Reds.

4-0

[Brutus]

Seven grounders and a strikeout for Leake one time through the order. Yes please.

[RedsMan3203]

9 up and down for Leake....

[Brutus]

The Dodgers are taking out their game one loss to the Nationals on Washington. 6-0 in the 4th. Meanwhile, the Pirates, in danger of falling to .500, are down 2-0 to Milwaukee.

[Kc61]

Cards, Brewers, Braves, Dodgers all leading. Nats, Pirates and Phils trailing.

[Red in Chicago]

Fine catch by RL in left

[Tadasimha]

Okay, no more no hitter - now just shut 'em out, Mike!

[Tom Servo]

Hopefully the wheels aren't falling off here.

[Brutus]

Hopefully the wheels aren't falling off here.

There were about five pitches that Gameday was offended by being called non-strikes. Combine that with both hits being grounders, and all-in-all didn't ever seem like anything to be terribly concerned about.

[Tom Servo]

There were about five pitches that Gameday was offended by being called non-strikes. Combine that with both hits being grounders, and all-in-all didn't ever seem like anything to be terribly concerned about.
The fact that he got out of it with just the one run is good enough for me. After the Soriano walk I had the vision of a Castro HR in my head, thus my comment.

[Kc61]

There were about five pitches that Gameday was offended by being called non-strikes. Combine that with both hits being grounders, and all-in-all didn't ever seem like anything to be terribly concerned about.

Just watching on TV I thought Leake was getting squeezed.

[Kc61]

Stubbs with a good night, hard hit single there.

[Tadasimha]

Stubbs now 2-2

[Kc61]

Votto probably unhappy with his defensive play last inning. Let's see what he does here with Stubby on first.

Solid hit but right to DeJesus.

Stubbs' 30th stolen base.

[Kc61]

Stubbs is so much more productive against lefties. If the Reds would simply come up with a lefty hitting platoon partner for him, they can turn Drew into a productive platoon player.

[Kc61]

Two outs. Bruce in full pop up mode. Two on, Reds lead by three, Rolen the batter.

RBI single. Stubbs with three runs scored tonight.

[Tom Servo]

Rolen in the deep.

[Brutus]

Stubbs is so much more productive against lefties. If the Reds would simply come up with a lefty hitting platoon partner for him, they can turn Drew into a productive platoon player.

They don't need a lefty. Heisey actually hits RHP better in his career than LHP.

In fact, his career OPS:

vs. L (.653)
vs. R (.812)

Put Heisey's .812 OPS vs. RHP and Stubbs' .816 OPS vs. LHP and you have an .800 OPS centerfielder which is top-10 in the Majors in production

[Kc61]

They don't need a lefty. Heisey actually hits RHP better in his career than LHP.

In fact, his career OPS:

vs. L (.653)
vs. R (.812)

Put Heisey's .812 OPS vs. RHP and Stubbs' .816 OPS vs. LHP and you have an .800 OPS centerfielder which is top-10 in the Majors in production

Brutus, I know you like Heisey. My preference is a different kind of hitter. Heisey has value, I'm not suggesting your view is unreasonable. I just would want a different player.

[Tadasimha]

Rolen in the deep.

I see what you did there - very clever! :laugh:

[Tom Servo]

Nice, inning ending DP!

[Tom Servo]

Gameday says Ludwick left with a leg injury?

[Kc61]

Ludwick out with a groin injury. Reds say precautionary. He was stretching it out on second base.

[Brutus]

Brutus, I know you like Heisey. My preference is a different kind of hitter. Heisey has value, I'm not suggesting your view is unreasonable. I just would want a different player.

I honestly don't know why you care about style more than bottom-line results. My preference is for the Reds to obtain an everyday, quality centerfielder. But the Reds could do a lot worse than Heisey (and they already are doing worse).

Why do you care what pitch Heisey swings at if he continues to hit .812 against right-handed pitching? Honestly, I don't see why it matters too much. Results are results and after nearly 900 plate appearances, one has to think it's not a fluke.

Heisey can swing at whatever pitch he likes. If he, as a CF, puts up an .812 OPS against RHP, he fits that role you describe perfectly.

[Kc61]

I honestly don't know why you care about style more than bottom-line results. My preference is for the Reds to obtain an everyday, quality centerfielder. But the Reds could do a lot worse than Heisey (and they already are doing worse).

Why do you care what pitch Heisey swings at if he continues to hit .812 against right-handed pitching? Honestly, I don't see why it matters too much. Results are results and after nearly 900 plate appearances, one has to think it's not a fluke.

Not going to debate Heisey in depth now. But he has a 3.8% walk rate and a high strikeout rate. He swings at everything. He has this habit of striking out on half swings. He just has very poor plate discipline. Really poor.

I haven't reviewed his lifetime numbers, but this year Heisey has a very high BABIP which is helping his overall numbers. Not all luck, for sure, but maybe partially luck.

The Reds have enough power. I'd like to see them use CF to get a player who gets on base at a high clip, can bat leadoff. Can set the table for Votto, et al.

That's my basic point. Heisey has good power and plays very hard. But I think there are probably better fits for this team.

[Brutus]

Not going to debate Heisey in depth now. But he has a 3.8% walk rate and a high strikeout rate. He swings at everything. He has this habit of striking out on half swings. He just has very poor plate discipline.

I haven't reviewed his lifetime numbers, but this year Heisey has a very high BABIP which is helping his overall numbers. Not all luck, for sure, but maybe partially luck.

The Reds have enough power. I'd like to see them use CF to get a player who gets on base at a high clip, can bat leadoff. Can set the table for Votto, et al.

That's my basic point. Heisey has good power and plays very hard. But I think there are probably better fits for this team.

All of that is taken into account by his wOBA and OPS. So again, big picture, Heisey is getting it done. His walk rate and such is already being accounted for in his production. So why does it matter? Whether he swings on the first pitch or the 10th pitch, the OPS accounts for the results.

[WVRedsFan]

Just like that, we've got a ball game.

[Tom Servo]

There go the wheels.

[Tony Cloninger]

Not going to debate Heisey in depth now. But he has a 3.8% walk rate and a high strikeout rate. He swings at everything. He has this habit of striking out on half swings. He just has very poor plate discipline. Really poor.

I haven't reviewed his lifetime numbers, but this year Heisey has a very high BABIP which is helping his overall numbers. Not all luck, for sure, but maybe partially luck.

The Reds have enough power. I'd like to see them use CF to get a player who gets on base at a high clip, can bat leadoff. Can set the table for Votto, et al.

That's my basic point. Heisey has good power and plays very hard. But I think there are probably better fits for this team.



Clemente, Berra, Ken Griffey Sr, Dave Concepcion and Vlad Guerrero would never be able to play for you. You really are taking the ..... a hitter has to always take pitches...to the extreme.

[Kc61]

All of that is taken into account by his wOBA and OPS. So again, big picture, Heisey is getting it done. His walk rate and such is already being accounted for in his production. So why does it matter? Whether he swings on the first pitch or the 10th pitch, the OPS accounts for the results.

wOBA and OPS are composite stats. IMO they do not tell the whole story without further analysis. Heisey's lifetime OPS, including his homer barrage last year, is .766. It's fine, but the OBP part is .316.

I think the Reds' centerfielder should have a .350 OBP, not .316. I think Joey Votto becomes a 125 RBI man with better tablesetters. I see CF on this team as a tablesetting position given the mix of players on this team.

On a power starved team, Heisey probably is a good pickup, he has good power and other skills. For the Reds, I'd prefer a CFer who hits at the top of the order and gets on base more.

[Tadasimha]

uh oh

[Kc61]

uh oh

Speaking of Heisey . . . .

[Tom Servo]

Yeesh.

[The Operator]

Caught a break there...

[Matt700wlw]

This ain't Dusty's fault!

[George Foster]

Someone should get benched after falling asleep on second base..horrible.

[Tony Cloninger]

Don't score runs......pitching good.... score runs, pitching bad. Most annoying thing to watch.

[Tom Servo]

This ain't Dusty's fault!True, but one would think after a while that he'd catch on to the usual song and dance of Leake and have a quicker hook.

[George Foster]

Don't score runs......pitching good.... score runs, pitching bad. Most annoying thing to watch.

Leake not pitching bad....the Cubs ran into some balls. Should be 5-3...Heisey was totally responsible for run #4

[Tony Cloninger]

True, but one would think after a while that he'd catch on to the usual song and dance of Leake and have a quicker hook.


From where? The hospital? He is not even there

[Tom Servo]

From where? The hospital? He is not even there
:doh:


the joke
--------------
my head

[Brutus]

wOBA and OPS are composite stats. IMO they do not tell the whole story without further analysis. Heisey's lifetime OPS, including his homer barrage last year, is .766. It's fine, but the OBP part is .316.

I think the Reds' centerfielder should have a .350 OBP, not .316. I think Joey Votto becomes a 125 RBI man with better tablesetters. I see CF on this team as a tablesetting position given the mix of players on this team.

On a power starved team, Heisey probably is a good pickup, he has good power and other skills. For the Reds, I'd prefer a CFer who hits at the top of the order and gets on base more.

I'm still not sure what you're getting at. OPS and wOBA both take into account both OBP and slugging. Sure, OBP carries slightly more weight than does slugging, but that's accounted for in wOBA and his career wOBA against RHP is .349. That's very, very good. The average CF in the majors is less than .330.

[Tony Cloninger]

:doh:


the joke
--------------
my head



Maybe Dr. Killdare made the call from the bench?

[Brutus]

True, but one would think after a while that he'd catch on to the usual song and dance of Leake and have a quicker hook.

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.

[George Foster]

Free

DiDi !!!

[Brutus]

Free

DiDi !!!

From what?

[Kc61]

Clemente, Berra, Ken Griffey Sr, Dave Concepcion and Vlad Guerrero would never be able to play for you. You really are taking the ..... a hitter has to always take pitches...to the extreme.

Nonsense.

Clemente lifetime OBP .359.
Griffey Sr. lifetime OBP .359.
Berra lifetime OBP .348.
Guerrero lifetime OBP .379.

Even Concepcion, a shortstop known for great defense, .322.

Chris Heisey's lifetime OBP is .316. His plate discipline is the reason. I want an entirely different type of hitter for the Reds' CF.

[Tom Servo]

From what?
From himself.

[WVRedsFan]

Apparenty they're going to leave Leake in. Very dangerous. Very.

[George Foster]

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.

This is true...the last Leake start you mentioned this. If Leake pitches bad, it's normally from the beginning.

[Tom Servo]

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.
Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though? :dunno:

[Kc61]

I'm still not sure what you're getting at. OPS and wOBA both take into account both OBP and slugging. Sure, OBP carries slightly more weight than does slugging, but that's accounted for in wOBA and his career wOBA against RHP is .349. That's very, very good. The average CF in the majors is less than .330.

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

[WVRedsFan]

Heisey DP. Good grief.

[George Foster]

From what?

From the bench...should be playing this series...no real reason why he's not in the lineup other than Dusty being Dusty with the veterans. DiDi had a great series in Miami especially Sunday and with Cozart coming back this weekend the Cubs series would of been a great time to see what he could do with multiple starts. We all know what Valdez can do.

[Tony Cloninger]

Nonsense.

Clemente lifetime OBP .359.
Griffey Sr. lifetime OBP .359.
Berra lifetime OBP .348.
Guerrero lifetime OBP .379.

Even Concepcion, a shortstop known for great defense, .322.

Chris Heisey's lifetime OBP is .316. His plate discipline is the reason. I want an entirely different type of hitter for the Reds' CF.



I meant in regards to their ability to take pitches. Clemente and Berra's OBP were not mainly derived from walks at all....and they did not meet many pitches they did not like.

[Brutus]

Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though? :dunno:

You could do a heck of a lot worse than Leake. Heck, Leake would have been the ace of several of the Reds' staffs the last 10 years.

But the point is that some folks here are under the impression that Leake falls off a cliff late in the games. The numbers don't suggest that at all, especially relative to how most pitchers fare later in games.

Interesting anecdote about Leake's homers though...

He's given up 17.8 percent of his flyballs as home runs. In the past 10 years of all starting pitchers in any season, only five guys have given up a larger percentage.

All five, by the way, went on to give up a percentage at least 5 points lower the following season. That suggests that Leake has likely been a little snake bitten in that he's really not giving up many flyballs, but an inordinate number are leaving the yard.

[Brutus]

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

These formulas pretty closely resemble how runs are scored. Not sure why you're totally willing to ignore slugging for two dozen more OBP points.

I'd love to have a .350 OBP guy too. But if he slugs .300, that's not an upgrade.

[WVRedsFan]

Arredondo on the mound

[Kc61]

I meant in regards to their ability to take pitches. Clemente and Berra's OBP were not mainly derived from walks at all....and they did not meet many pitches they did not like.

Actually, while neither Clemente nor Berra walked that much, Heisey's walk rate is lower than both of them.

And frankly to mention Heisey in the same sentence as these great hitters is kind of a joke. Yes, some guys can be great hitters not walking that much.

I happen to think Heisey is not one of them.

So while you are looking for Heisey to turn into Roberto Clemente, I'd prefer a centerfielder with good plate discipline who gets on base frequently.

[The Operator]

Oh boy, Jose on the hill.

[George Foster]

These formulas pretty closely resemble how runs are scored. Not sure why you're totally willing to ignore slugging for two dozen more OBP points.

I'd love to have a .350 OBP guy too. But if he slugs .300, that's not an upgrade.

Ludwick got off to such a slow start that Heisey had a chance to take LF away from him. Heisey did not take advantage of that situation, Ludwick got red hot this summer and the rest is history.

I hope to God Ludwick's groin is OK...his bat was heating up again.

[Tony Cloninger]

I agree KC that i would rather have someone else than these 2......but i also would rather have Heisey in there over Stubbs more.

Let Stubbs try playing LF after sitting on the bench all night and see how fresh he is.

His speed makes up for a lot of his misjudging of balls.

[Tony Cloninger]

Actually, while neither Clemente nor Berra walked that much, Heisey's walk rate is lower than both of them.

And frankly to mention Heisey in the same sentence as these great hitters is kind of a joke. Yes, some guys can be great hitters not walking that much.

I happen to think Heisey is not one of them.

So while you are looking for Heisey to turn into Roberto Clemente, I'd prefer a centerfielder with good plate discipline who gets on base frequently.



I know that it is bad to compare those 2..... it was the only two i could think of right away....

[The Operator]

Ball Four.

[WVRedsFan]

Jose's control is horrible.

[Tony Cloninger]

I thought they gave up on giving Jose ...high leverage innings. Is this not Hoover's spot now?

[The Operator]

Jose's control is horrible.And when he has to go to his fastball for a strike it gets hammered at times.

[George Foster]

Arredondo on the mound

why this guy does not trust his stuff more is mind numbing...he picks and picks and falls behind, then either walks or gives up a big hit...throw strikes..

[Brutus]

This has the feeling of one of those games that should not get me irate when it ends the way it does being so close to clinching the division, but will anyhow.

[The Operator]

Wow. 51 Ks in 103 at bats... That could make Drew Stubbs blush.

[The Operator]

I thought they gave up on giving Jose ...high leverage innings. Is this not Hoover's spot now?It definitely should be.

[Kc61]

I agree KC that i would rather have someone else than these 2......but i also would rather have Heisey in there over Stubbs more.

Let Stubbs try playing LF after sitting on the bench all night and see how fresh he is.

His speed makes up for a lot of his misjudging of balls.

I want the Reds to get a new CFer. If they want to keep one of Stubbs or Heisey as a platoon or backup, fine. If they want to keep neither, also fine.

Stubbs makes sense as a platoon against LHP, but it's really not that important. The main thing is to get a new primary guy for that position.

[George Foster]

And when he has to go to his fastball for a strike it gets hammered at times.

Most all pitchers that fall behind get their fastballs hammered...don't fall behind...trust your stuff and defense...

[Brutus]

Speaking of blowing leads... the Nationals have tied the Dodgers 6-6. That was 6-0 earlier.

[WVRedsFan]

Not pretty, but a great catch by Jay

[The Operator]

Most all pitchers that fall behind get their fastballs hammered...don't fall behind...trust your stuff and defense...True, but having some giddyup on it improves your chances a bit. Jose's fastball isn't nearly what I thought it would be when The Reds brought him over from the Los Angeles Angels of Portland of Orange County of whatever they are.

[Kc61]

True, but having some giddyup on it improves your chances a bit. Jose's fastball isn't nearly what I thought it would be when The Reds brought him over from the Los Angeles Angels of Portland of Orange County of whatever they are.

Jose's ok for the sixth or seventh inning. Three outs.

[George Foster]

Not pretty, but a great catch by Jay

As a ML player I would hate to play in Wrigley 82 games a year.

[Brutus]

I want the Reds to get a new CFer. If they want to keep one of Stubbs or Heisey as a platoon or backup, fine. If they want to keep neither, also fine.

Stubbs makes sense as a platoon against LHP, but it's really not that important. The main thing is to get a new primary guy for that position.

I'm still confused. You say Stubbs makes sense as a platoon against LHP (career .353 wOBA), but yet Heisey doesn't make sense against RHP as the other half (career .349 wOBA).

That's the same production. And unlike OPS where you can argue OBP is more important, you can't make the same argument for wOBA because it's configured to regress the added importance of getting on base. That means the two players against their specific splits are almost identical in overall production. So Heisey, swinging away and all, would theoretically give the Reds the same number of runs in the same number of at-bats against RHP as Stubbs would against LHP.

[Kc61]

Reds need to get through Soriano and Castro next inning. Another run or two for the Reds wouldn't exactly hurt either.

I'm guessing Hoover will get a shot at it.

[The Operator]

Is there any chance that The Reds might take Navarro instead of Mes to the playoffs? He's got that left-handed thing going for him. Or could they carry three catcher? I doubt that but you never know.

[WVRedsFan]

Reds need to get through Soriano and Castro next inning. Another run or two for the Reds wouldn't exactly hurt either.

I'm guessing Hoover will get a shot at it.

Not likely to get runs this inning with Navarro, Valdez and Paul up. Two out.

[The Operator]

Down 1 run you call back your best pinch hitter to hit a rookie with only a handfull of at bats? Ehh I dunno about that.

[George Foster]

Is there any chance that The Reds might take Navarro instead of Mes to the playoffs? He's got that left-handed thing going for him. Or could they carry three catcher? I doubt that but you never know.

The old guy that writes for the Dayton paper says that Navarro is a sure thing for the playoffs. You will get your wish.

[WVRedsFan]

Down 1 run you call back your best pinch hitter to hit a rookie with only a handfull of at bats? Ehh I dunno about that.

Worked. Luckily.

[The Operator]

Shows what I know. H-Rod on with a hit. :D

[The Operator]

WorkedHappens every time, lol.

[The Operator]

It will be Hoover for the 8th.

[Brutus]

Is there any chance that The Reds might take Navarro instead of Mes to the playoffs? He's got that left-handed thing going for him. Or could they carry three catcher? I doubt that but you never know.

I honestly thought they pretty much made the decision to carry Navarro instead of Mesoraco when they sent him to the minors. They certainly aren't likely to carry three catchers, so I pretty much assume it's a given that's their plan.

[Kc61]

I'm still confused. You say Stubbs makes sense as a platoon against LHP (career .353 wOBA), but yet Heisey doesn't make sense against RHP as the other half (career .349 wOBA).

That's the same production. And unlike OPS where you can argue OBP is more important, you can't make the same argument for wOBA because it's configured to regress the added importance of getting on base. That means the two players against their specific splits are almost identical in overall production. So Heisey, swinging away and all, would theoretically give the Reds the same number of runs in the same number of at-bats against RHP as Stubbs would against LHP.

Let me be clear. I never said Heisey should platoon hitting lefties. I said if the Reds want to keep Stubbs or Heisey as a platoon or backup, it's ok with me. The main objective for me is a new, starting CF.

As for OPS, it is a composite stat. You can have a good OPS based on slugging. You can have a good wOBA based on slugging. You can be strong in one component part and weaker in the other.

Many Reds have good OPS, good wOBA because of their slugging. Their OBPs aren't particularly good. But their power compensates.

I don't want another guy whose power compensates for OBP. I want a high OBP hitter for the team. Even if his OPS is a little less. I want a guy who gets on base more. I think it will help Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, others.

In Heisey's case, he is a .766 OPS man but his OBP is .316. I think OBP is what the Reds need. So .316 doesn't do it for me. I'd prefer a different type hitter.

If that's not clear, I'm sorry, I did my best to explain.

[Kc61]

7-6 Dodgers on a Kemp homer in the ninth. Still going on.

[The Operator]

So many balls dying at the warning track lately. On to the 8th inning...

[Tony Cloninger]

Down 1 run you call back your best pinch hitter to hit a rookie with only a handfull of at bats? Ehh I dunno about that.

They are down 1 run?

[WVRedsFan]

Reds with only warning track power tonight. Fudge. Seriously.

[The Operator]

They are down 1 run?D'oh! A 1-run lead. :) I'm batting a thousand tonight.

[WVRedsFan]

They are down 1 run?

Up, down, or whatever. :)

Magic number will be three or four and the team can clinch at home. I like.

[George Foster]

Recently the Reds have scoreed runs with homeruns have not hit one the past 2 games...crazy.

[The Operator]

Hmm, lost him to a walk after having him down 0-2.

[George Foster]

that 0-2 waste pitch screwed up his release point...i hate those high waste pitches..

[Kc61]

Hmm, lost him to a walk after having him down 0-2.

Seemed to be overthrowing in the sense of trying to throw it through a brick wall. Hoover's fly ball tendencies an issue here. Hope he gets through it.

[Brutus]

Let me be clear. I never said Heisey should platoon hitting lefties. I said if the Reds want to keep Stubbs or Heisey as a platoon or backup, it's ok with me. The main objective for me is a new, starting CF.

As for OPS, it is a composite stat. You can have a good OPS based on slugging. You can have a good wOBA based on slugging. You can be strong in one component part and weaker in the other.

Many Reds have good OPS, good wOBA because of their slugging. Their OBPs aren't particularly good. But their power compensates.

I don't want another guy whose power compensates for OBP. I want a high OBP hitter for the team. Even if his OPS is a little less. I want a guy who gets on base more. I think it will help Votto, Ludwick, Frazier, others.

In Heisey's case, he is a .766 OPS man but his OBP is .316. I think OBP is what the Reds need. So .316 doesn't do it for me. I'd prefer a different type hitter.

If that's not clear, I'm sorry, I did my best to explain.

It doesn't matter how the ratio breaks down though, KC. At least not for wOBA.

If the Reds have a team wOBA of .335 comprised of more slugging, it generally works out to score the same number of runs as a team of a .335 wOBA that has a much higher OBP. Your point about OPS has merit, because one point of OBP in OPS is not exactly the same as one point of SLG. But in wOBA, that's already taken into account so it doesn't matter where it comes from.

Here's an example.. in 2007 Kenny Lofton had a .367 OBP. From what you're saying, this is the kind of player you want the Reds to have. But guess what? His wOBA was .349. That means if Lofton had the same number of plate appearances as a perfectly-executed Stubbs/Heisey platoon, the Reds wouldn't be expected to score any more runs by having that high-OBP guy at the top of the order.

If you can find a leadoff guy that gets on base 38-40 percent of the time and has a little power to boot, believe me I'm all for that. Heck, I'm all for finding one guy that can have a .350 wOBA full-time, but my point is the production doesn't technically improve any.

[George Foster]

Stubbs gets great jumps on balls to his right...

[The Operator]

I don't see why anyone gives Soriano anything to hit. He'll hack at almost anything.


And he lives up to his reputation, chasing a high fastball for a K.

[Kc61]

Brewers and Phils won. Dodgers leading Nats. Cards leading Stros. Pirates lost.

[George Foster]

Brewers and Phils won. Dodgers leading Nats. Cards leading Stros. Pirates lost.

Brewers might not lose another game...wow they are hot...scary..

[Kc61]

Brewers might not lose another game...wow they are hot...scary..

Reds face them next week in Cincy . . . .

[The Operator]

Dang. A seeing-eye single makes it first and third.

[Tony Cloninger]

I would love for the Reds to sweep the Brewers and end their run.

I still do not know why the Reds FO did not see Quentin Berry as an option at AAA and just let a cheap option go like that.

He would have been a great pickup and help get Baker off his Stubbs kick.

[Kc61]

The philosophy of 0-2 pitching. Why on earth did Hoover let Castro hit it almost out of the inning?

For discussion at some other time.

Now bases loaded and Lecure looks like he's coming in. Maybe not, just the pitching coach making a visit.

[The Operator]

Bases loaded. Ugh.

[George Foster]

The philosophy of 0-2 pitching. Why on earth did Hoover let Castro hit it almost out of the inning?

For discussion at some other time.

It was a ball outside...still it was hitable.

Hoover might not be ready for prime time...

[WVRedsFan]

Hoover not exactly impressing here. Rookies. You just never know. Putting them in a position like this is always a crapshoot.

[Kc61]

It was a ball outside...still it was hitable.

Hoover might not be ready for prime time...

Hoover walked a guy earlier after 0-2. I hope that wasn't on his mind.

Castro is a free swinger, make him chase. Whatever.

[The Operator]

And now the strike zone tightens up.

[Tom Servo]

Gameday indicates the first pitch was right down the middle...for a ball.

[WVRedsFan]

About to walk in the tying run.

[Kc61]

Gameday indicates the first pitch was right down the middle...for a ball.

It was low.

[dsmith421]

Ladies and gentlemen, in tonight's performance, the part of Carlos Marmol will be played by J. J. Hoover.

[Red in Chicago]

Laughable

[The Operator]

You've gotta be kidding me.

[WVRedsFan]

It was a ball outside...still it was hitable.

Hoover might not be ready for prime time...

Exactly. Not on this night, anyway.

[Red in Chicago]

And now he comes in for the hook

[Tony Cloninger]

Hoover walked a guy earlier after 0-2. I hope that wasn't on his mind.

Castro is a free swinger, make him chase. Whatever.



Perfect example of a guy who will hack and still hit anything....is Castro.

[The Operator]

And now he comes in for the hookSeems it's almost always 1 batter too late with this team.

[Brutus]

And now he comes in for the hook

It's easy to say that in hindsight, but did you really honestly feel like Hoover would walk in a run given how he's pitched this year? I think he's earned that extra bit of wiggle room in that situation.

[Brutus]

Seems it's almost always 1 batter too late with this team.

The record suggests otherwise :)

[dsmith421]

The sequence of pitches at 0-2 to Barney was imbecilic. So stupid. That kid is a disciplined hitter, he's not swinging at a garbage fastball over his head. This is the crap that doesn't seem to happen when Hanigan is behind the plate.

[George Foster]

Hoover walked a guy earlier after 0-2. I hope that wasn't on his mind.

Castro is a free swinger, make him chase. Whatever.

I'm telling you that 0-2 waste pitch that was so high to Barney screwed up his release point...never could regain it.

[Tadasimha]

Well, crap

[Tom Servo]

It's easy to say that in hindsight, but did you really honestly feel like Hoover would walk in a run given how he's pitched this year? I think he's earned that extra bit of wiggle room in that situation.
I would also think Hoover has performed well enough this season not to be overly criticized over one poor outing.

[The Operator]

The record suggests otherwise :)I never claimed to have my perceptions in line with reality. ;)

[WVRedsFan]

Important thing is to not let this thing get farther out of hand. Sad this team was up 5-1 and couldn't hold it.

[George Foster]

The sequence of pitches at 0-2 to Barney was imbecilic. So stupid. That kid is a disciplined hitter, he's not swinging at a garbage fastball over his head. This is the crap that doesn't seem to happen when Hanigan is behind the plate.

EXACTLY

[kbrake]

Guys do need time to get warmed up. Every time someone reaches base you can't have a new guy start warming up right away.

[dsmith421]

Honestly, if Anderson gets a hit, good for him. Just do not walk in the go-ahead run.

[Brutus]

Guys do need time to get warmed up. Every time someone reaches base you can't have a new guy start warming up right away.

Agreed. And to be honest, sometimes someone cold off the bench is not necessarily a better option in a pinch than someone who's already warmed up. It's not always better to rely on someone to get an out fresh out of the pen.

[WVRedsFan]

Come on, Sam

[Tom Servo]

Honestly, if Anderson gets a hit, good for him. Just do not walk in the go-ahead run.
Yeah good for Anderson, whoever the hell that is :confused:

[Tony Cloninger]

Guys do need time to get warmed up. Every time someone reaches base you can't have a new guy start warming up right away.

Of course they do! This is Redszone..... We know what is going to happen and should happen before anyone else does. :D

[The Operator]

WOW! Huge K.

[George Foster]

Ole' Sammy has been real impressive that last couple of outings...wow

[Tom Servo]

The Cure for what ails ya.

[Gizmo]

Hopefully the offense comes out of hibernation again.

[WVRedsFan]

Way to come through Mr. LeClure!

[dman]

I think that's one of the best "ring 'em up" pitches I've seen all year.

[Kc61]

The sequence of pitches at 0-2 to Barney was imbecilic. So stupid. That kid is a disciplined hitter, he's not swinging at a garbage fastball over his head. This is the crap that doesn't seem to happen when Hanigan is behind the plate.

You may be right, but he did strike out Soriano after that. I can't hold the catcher responsible for the whole inning because of one high pitch.

Hoover was ahead of Castro 0-2 and from there he went completely downhill. It happens but JJ needs to do better next time.

Marmol in.

[Tony Cloninger]

The Reds always win the games Stubbs scores a lot.......so of course they will win this game.

It's Saber metrics! It's science!

[Kc61]

If there is a sign for don't swing under any circumstances, I'd probably give it to Stubbs.

[WVRedsFan]

Cubbies serious. Got the former closer in

[Hollcat]

Stubbs K, Votto bb. Almost guaranteed!

[The Operator]

I'm not ready to declare Hoover not ready for the prime time quite yet... He showed a lot of poise saving the 3rd win against Pittsburgh and several other games before.

He sure didn't have anything tonight though.

[Kc61]

Dodgers beat Nats to get the split.

[Wonderful Monds]

I would love for the Reds to sweep the Brewers and end their run.

I still do not know why the Reds FO did not see Quentin Berry as an option at AAA and just let a cheap option go like that.

He would have been a great pickup and help get Baker off his Stubbs kick.

We've already had our luck with random minor leaguers tearing it up this year with Xavier Paul.

[The Operator]

That was ball four.

[Kc61]

That was ball four.

Maybe but Stubbs amazingly fouled it off.

K looking.

[The Operator]

Of course. Swing at a ball and take a called 3rd strike.

[dman]

Just like death and taxes.

[The Operator]

Maybe but Stubbs amazingly fouled it off.

K looking.True, I'll give him credit on that.

[HokieRed]

I hope we don't have to see him next year.

[The Operator]

I think it's about time for Joey's first homer since coming back.

[George Foster]

You would think hitting in front of Joey would be the best position in all of baseball....

[Kc61]

I'm calling a Heisey homer in this inning.

Then Brutus can tell me that the Reds should keep him.

I'll take the point if he homers.

[The Operator]

Joey goes down swinging.

[WVRedsFan]

Looks like we got good Marmol tonight.

[The Operator]

Looks like we got good Marmol tonight.Which is quite bad for us.

[The Operator]

Not even a whimper in the top of the inning.

Let's hope Broxton's still got it going tonight.

[Red in Chicago]

I can't handle extras tonight.

[Brutus]

Not even a whimper in the top of the inning.

Let's hope Broxton's still got it going tonight.

Won't Sam pitch another inning?

[WVRedsFan]

Broxton was up. I thought they'd use Sam in the ninth.

[The Operator]

Won't Sam pitch another inning?Could be, but I saw Brox looking pretty warm in the pen. Could just be getting ready in case of an emergency.


And Lecure it is indeed.

[Brutus]

Broxton was up. I thought they'd use Sam in the ninth.

Having him up doesn't necessarily mean they're going to bring him in yet. They might have been warming him in case they got the lead.

[Tadasimha]

Won't Sam pitch another inning?

Might have had Brox up in case they got the lead in the 9th.

LeCure still in.

[WVRedsFan]

Ah, it's Sam

[The Operator]

Mather pops out. 1 down.

[WVRedsFan]

Great goodness. Reds killer Barney up.

[The Operator]

Swininging strike three gets past Navarro and there's a runner on first.

[Red in Chicago]

Great goodness.

Not sure why, but I ALWAYS chuckle when you say that:lol:

[The Operator]

Nasty. 2 down.

[WVRedsFan]

Not sure why, but I ALWAYS chuckle when you say that:lol:

You don't want to read what I really want to say :).

[The Operator]

Sam can sure paint the corner.

[The Operator]

YES! Heading to extras.

[WVRedsFan]

Good job, Sammy!

[Brutus]

The Reds need some Oriole magic now.

[The Operator]

Oooh he just missed that.

[WVRedsFan]

Bruce-Rolen-Navarro.

Jay flies out. Apparently the long ball is out of the question.

[WVRedsFan]

Rolen walks. One out.

[The Operator]

Ball four for Scotty Baseball, runner on first with 1 down.

[The Operator]

Un friggin believable.

[Red in Chicago]

I blame the howl for that dp

[WVRedsFan]

And now with the howl comes the 4th DP of the night. Luck is not with us.

[The Operator]

Oh boy. Logan's in to put this one in the books. The middle of their order no less.

[WebScorpion]

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy036.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[WVRedsFan]

The dreaded Logan. Not what I wanted to see.

[The Operator]

About 20 feet from being over.

[The Operator]

Thank you Soriano and your hacktastic ways. 1 down.

[WVRedsFan]

Anyone else having trouble with live feed not refreshing?

[The Operator]

Logan gets in his own way and Castro is aboard. 1 down.

Oh what I wouldn't give for a DP here.

[The Operator]

LOL. That's the ballgame right there.

[WVRedsFan]

Now we're in trouble.

[Chip R]

Reds are looking more like the Cubs than the Cubs.

[Red in Chicago]

Outstanding defense there boys.

[Tom Servo]

ballgame maggle

[WVRedsFan]

Oh well. This is gonna leave a mark.

[George Foster]

that was error on heisey...not Stubbs

[Kc61]

Brutus, based on this game, I would prefer if the Reds moved Heisey tonight.

[Kc61]

Logan. Nobody else will compliment you on a RedsZone thread. You are not favored.

Great job getting that strikeout.

[The Operator]

Huge K. Still not out of trouble yet, but we've got 2 outs.

[Kc61]

First base is open, nothing too good. If you walk him, you walk him.

[Red in Chicago]

Logan. Nobody else will compliment you on a RedsZone thread. You are not favored.

Great job getting that strikeout.

He's still allowed two runners this inning

[Tom Servo]

Logan. Nobody else will compliment you on a RedsZone thread. You are not favored.
He is history's worst monster.

[Kc61]

He's still allowed two runners this inning

No he hasn't. He's allowed one runner. The outfielders allowed the other. A simple fly ball. In the wind.

[The Operator]

He is history's worst monster.He was the second gunman on the Grassy Knoll.


And we have 'em loaded on a 4-pitch walk. Oy vey.

[George Foster]

He was the second gunman on the Grassy Knoll.


And we have 'em loaded on a 4-pitch walk. Oy vey.

And held the horse behind Ford's theatre..

[dsmith421]

Yowzers, good one by Logan to escape.

[Kc61]

Great job Logan. Let 'em talk, who cares. You did terrific.

[Roy Tucker]

Whew.

[Tom Servo]

we're still not bad again yet!

[Red in Chicago]

Great job Logan. Let 'em talk, who cares. You did terrific.

Yes, terrific loading the bases :laugh:

[WVRedsFan]

that was error on heisey...not Stubbs

That's what I thought. Stubbs had a long way to come. Regardless of his hitting, Heisey leaves a lot to be desired as a fielder in my opinion. And that's just from watching him. I have no fancy stats to prove it.

[George Foster]

Great job Logan. Let 'em talk, who cares. You did terrific.

man love....:luvu:

[kaldaniels]

I feel totally baited to start trashing Ondrusek, but I'm gonna let it go.

[WVRedsFan]

we're still not bad again yet!

:laugh: