Trade Billy Hamilton + other prospects for Justin Upton?

[RedTruck]

Outfield:
Melky Cabrerea-LF
Justin Upton-CF
Jay Bruce-RF

Trade an unknown for a superstar.

They want a young short stop?

Well Gregorious (22) + Cingrini + Hamilton could possibly net us Upton and Trevor Bower no?

[Hondo]

I think Cosart is acceptable to Arizona... He's ready opening Day and that is what Arizona wants...

I wouldn't trade Cingrani though... I would offer Leake, who is young and a proven 4/5 starter...

Cozart, Leake, and another minor leaguer...

Cozart is a very valuable chip... Gold Glove Caliber SS who can hit 20-25 HR...

I almost don't want to trade him but to get that IMPACT OF Bat in Upton, I'd pull the trigger.

[[deleted]]

Any potential Upton trade starts with the name Hamilton and goes from there, I'd think. Probably followed by Cingrani or Corcino or Leake. Maybe even Bailey.

If Arizona does trade him, it'll be for a lot. Cozart certainly won't be the cornerstone, I can guarantee that.

[Hondo]

;2776108']Any potential Upton trade starts with the name Hamilton and goes from there, I'd think. Probably followed by Cingrani or Corcino or Leake. Maybe even Bailey.

If Arizona does trade him, it'll be for a lot. Cozart certainly won't be the cornerstone, I can guarantee that.

So is that why the Texas Rangers refuse to trade their #1 Prospect Jurickson Profar?

Is that why The Washington Nationals refused to Trade their #1 Prospect Bryce Harper to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez?

So no, the conversations do not begin and end with the Reds #1 Prospect Billy Hamilton.

[HometownHero]

So is that why the Texas Rangers refuse to trade their #1 Prospect Jurickson Profar?

Is that why The Washington Nationals refused to Trade their #1 Prospect Bryce Harper to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez?

So no, the conversations do not begin and end with the Reds #1 Prospect Billy Hamilton.

Those guys aren't just their teams #1 prospects, they are the games best prospects at the time.

[MoneyInTheBank]

They will ask for Hamilton. The Reds should say no. He's their top prospect, he's not blocked and he's exactly what this lineup needs, a leadoff hitting CF. He could even be ready early in 2013. Don't think for one second that I'm not drooling thinking about an OF of Upton, Hamilton and Bruce. I think Cozart + Leake doesn't get you hung up on but I do think it would take two significant prospects on top of that to get it done. Even then, I think it would be a "we'll let you know" on Arizona's part to see if they could get Tampa to come off of one of their stud pitchers

[rgslone]

For you guys who have followed Upton, how much of an offensive upgrade would he be over Ludwig based on last season? Also, I know he could be the long-term LF answer (and the Reds don't really appear to have one of those reasonably close in the minors), but is he a good cost/benefit player for the Reds future? I'm not implying any answer here, I'm honestly asking the questions.

[Redsfansince72]

Billy Hamilton has to be untouchable.. heck the Reds have gone years without a legit leadoff hitter.. now everybody wants to trade him?? Not me!.. Let him play CF and bat leadoff in 2013 and get rid of Stubbs.. talk about a threat at leadoff this team hasnt seen in years!!!

[HometownHero]

For you guys who have followed Upton, how much of an offensive upgrade would he be over Ludwig based on last season? Also, I know he could be the long-term LF answer (and the Reds don't really appear to have one of those reasonably close in the minors), but is he a good cost/benefit player for the Reds future? I'm not implying any answer here, I'm honestly asking the questions.

He should hit at GABP even if he hasn't as a visitor but his .731 career road OPS is a red flag but he is still young and has worlds of talent buts its no doubt a gamble hoping it clicks away from Chase Field.

[Hondo]

Those guys aren't just their teams #1 prospects, they are the games best prospects at the time.

I am pretty sure Billy Hamilton is one the highest profile prospects in the game right now, and Profar is a STUD, but he's not in the same league as Harper...

I mean, The Rangers won't trade Andrus for Upton, so that sets the market and IMO Cozart should look really enticing for Kevin Towers...

[HometownHero]

I am pretty sure Billy Hamilton is one the highest profile prospects in the game right now, and Profar is a STUD, but he's not in the same league as Harper...

I mean, The Rangers won't trade Andrus for Upton, so that sets the market and IMO Cozart should look really enticing for Kevin Towers...

Profar will likely be #1 overall prospect in this years Top-100, he is a SS who can do it all on the field. Just because a team doesn't want to give up a All-Star SS or the top prospect in baseball doesn't mean the D-Backs will just give Upton away for a 27yo SS who has yet to prove he can hit in the majors.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Profar will likely be #1 overall prospect in this years Top-100, he is a SS who can do it all on the field. Just because a team doesn't want to give up a All-Star SS or the top prospect in baseball doesn't mean the D-Backs will just give Upton away for a 27yo SS who has yet to prove he can hit in the majors.

To add to what you are saying here, Arizona added Cliff Pennington this offseason as well. Cozart is an upgrade over him but I'd rather have Upton-Pennington than Cozart-Leake-Pennington

[RedTruck]

For you guys who have followed Upton, how much of an offensive upgrade would he be over Ludwig based on last season? Also, I know he could be the long-term LF answer (and the Reds don't really appear to have one of those reasonably close in the minors), but is he a good cost/benefit player for the Reds future? I'm not implying any answer here, I'm honestly asking the questions.

Depends really. Ludwick seemed to almost come back to form last season after a long stint of being bad.

The big draw with Upton is that he's only 25. Has great power, great speed, great defense. A true 5 star player. Even his "off seasons" he's still producing.

The main hope is that Upton can turn on that extra gear, and become a perennial 30-40 HR, 120+ RBI, 30+ steal MVP, Gold Glove caliber guy.

Because he is truly talented, but needs a little push I guess.

[Hondo]

Depends really. Ludwick seemed to almost come back to form last season after a long stint of being bad.

The big draw with Upton is that he's only 25. Has great power, great speed, great defense. A true 5 star player. Even his "off seasons" he's still producing.

The main hope is that Upton can turn on that extra gear, and become a perennial 30-40 HR, 120+ RBI, 30+ steal MVP, Gold Glove caliber guy.

Because he is truly talented, but needs a little push I guess.

To add to what you're saying, in Arizona, they are expecting him to be "the man" well here in Cincinnati Votto is the man, and the 2nd "Man" Bruce so all J Upton has to do is slide in that 4 hole and then the Reds have the Offensive Protection for Votto at #3 and this team turns the corner on Production.... IF, and I mean a HUGE IF they get a legit lead-off hitter...

I think they just need to swallow the Red Pill and Sign Bourn... Chances are Hamilton won't be ready until 2014 and won't be an IMPACT bat until 2015/2016 so Bourn allows you to bring Hamilton along and Bat him 2nd when he first comes up, then my friends you have Votto-Upton-Bruce behind Bourn and Hamilton... Plus, by replacing Stubbs with Bourn you don't lose anything Defensively...

The Reds need to go ALL IN this year... Period.

[RedTruck]

The Reds need to go ALL IN this year... Period.

I hate that statement. Go all in...this year is the year..because last year wasn't?

I'd prefer the reds to make reasonable moves and be competitive for the next 2 decades, than make a large splash only for the sake of 1 or 2 seasons.

[rgslone]

I understand the excitement over Upton because of what his tools suggest he could be (and even what he's already shown to be would be nice in the Reds LF). But, personally I think the perfect trading partner and most realistic option involves the Twins. Get Willingham for LF and Revere for CF (Span would be even better, but then the Twins trade demands would be higher). The Twins have more CF options then they know what to do with, and Willingham is not in their long-term plans. The Twins are more than eager to trade and want pitching (first priority) and a SS. Two rational GMs ought to be able to make a mutually beneficial trade here.

[Hondo]

I hate that statement. Go all in...this year is the year..because last year wasn't?

I'd prefer the reds to make reasonable moves and be competitive for the next 2 decades, than make a large splash only for the sake of 1 or 2 seasons.

The reason this statement is a good statement because it was a TRUE statement...

What did the Reds need going into last offseason? A Lead-Off Hitter...

They were IMO one player away from being a 100 Win Team and going deep in the playoffs... a Legit Lead-Off Hitter... In fact, the lack of a Lead-Off Hitter had an affect on the entire lineup production....

So they could of went ALL IN last year but chose not to do so...

Same thing could be said about no left handed bench player... A HUGE Need... I mean, Give Jason Giambi a call.

[Redlegs Homer]

Bad year to need a left fielder. A trade might be better than gambling on Ludwick again or having to sign Jonny Gomes or Scott Hairston since the Reds can't afford the star of free agency in Michael Bourn. This is a rough place to be for the Reds.

[RedTruck]

The reason this statement is a good statement because it was a TRUE statement...

What did the Reds need going into last offseason? A Lead-Off Hitter...

They were IMO one player away from being a 100 Win Team and going deep in the playoffs... a Legit Lead-Off Hitter... In fact, the lack of a Lead-Off Hitter had an affect on the entire lineup production....

So they could of went ALL IN last year but chose not to do so...

Same thing could be said about no left handed bench player... A HUGE Need... I mean, Give Jason Giambi a call.

The reds had a 2 game series lead, needing just 1 win to close it out..with 3 games to play at home.

They choked. Sure the reds need a lead off hitter, but they didn't lose the series because of the lack of one.

They lost because our starting pitching was poor (during those series)

Latos giving up the grandslam to Posey putting us down by 6 in the 5th inning

Throwing leake out there giving up 4 er

Losing our ace Cueto.

Having a lead off hitter will definitely make this team more well rounded, but it's not such a urgent priority.

Personally, the priority should be making the right choice with Chapman, and making sure that if he does indeed take the starting role that they have good options to close.

[Hondo]

Having a lead off hitter will definitely make this team more well rounded, but it's not such a urgent priority.



No offense but this kind of loses your credibility.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I disagree that a leadoff hitter is a must have this offseason and that saying otherwise blows your credibility. What this team needs is another guy who can get on base. This team finished 21st in baseball with a .315 OBP and that was with Votto's otherworldly figure. The only playoff teams that finished lower were Oakland and Baltimore. Look how far they got in the playoffs.

If that guy doesn't hit leadoff, that's fine with me. It would be ideal if they did hit 1st or 2nd but Phillips can hold down leadoff adequately. I see no reason to pigeonhole yourself by only looking for leadoff hitters when there are plenty of ways to make this thing work

[Hondo]

I disagree that a leadoff hitter is a must have this offseason and that saying otherwise blows your credibility. What this team needs is another guy who can get on base. This team finished 21st in baseball with a .315 OBP and that was with Votto's otherworldly figure. The only playoff teams that finished lower were Oakland and Baltimore. Look how far they got in the playoffs.

If that guy doesn't hit leadoff, that's fine with me. It would be ideal if they did hit 1st or 2nd but Phillips can hold down leadoff adequately. I see no reason to pigeonhole yourself by only looking for leadoff hitters when there are plenty of ways to make this thing work

Reds leadoff hitters combined to bat .208 with a .254 on-base percentage -- both ranked last in the Major Leagues. The No. 1 hitters scored 83 runs, tied for the second-worst among the 30 big league teams.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20121025&content_id=40039652&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I guess the rest of the baseball world and I are wrong...

[MoneyInTheBank]

Reds leadoff hitters combined to bat .208 with a .254 on-base percentage -- both ranked last in the Major Leagues. The No. 1 hitters scored 83 runs, tied for the second-worst among the 30 big league teams.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20121025&content_id=40039652&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

I guess the rest of the baseball world and I are wrong...

Did you read my whole post? Or just the first sentence?

3/4 or more of the ABs in the leadoff spot went to Cozart and Stubbs. They had 2 of the worst OBP in all of baseball last year. Phillips did struggle in his limited opportunities there this season but has a .322 career OBP and hit very well there in 2011. The whole crux of my post was that if they can acquire a player with strong on base skills but is not a leadoff type, Phillips can hold it down until Hamilton is ready or they are able to find someone else.

[rgslone]

I think a few of you guys may be trying to split hairs too finely. The point everybody agrees on is that the Reds desperately need guys on base ahead of Votto. Otherwise, you have a colossal waste of one of the best potential RBI machines in baseball. That's why in another thread I speculated about HRod playing 3B for the Reds - not because he's ready or even the ideal option for manning 3B, but because he may be the best OBP option the Reds have internally if they don't bring someone in. BP is versatile, but he can only hit in one spot at a time. In my opinion, the Reds need two additional hitters - either two high OBP guys (in which case BP could hit 4th) or 1 high OBP guy & one power hitter (in which case BP could hit 1st or 2nd).

[Hondo]

If we can get back to the real point of this post...

The Diamondbacks are looking for a SS and Cozart fits what they need for Upton...

Look here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/diamondbacks-interested-in-jhonny-peralta.html

Zack Cozart is younger and less expensive than Jhonny Peralta and going off last year, I would say Cozart has more upside who can easily out perform Peralta's season best numbers in all categories, except for Steals...

So if Arizona is looking at Peralta, you've got to know that Cozart fits their need for a starting point in the Justin Upton sweepstakes...

Send them Corcino and a couple more prospects not named Billy Hamilton and I think Arizona pulls the trigger.

[New York Red]

I really, really, really want to see Billy Hamilton in a Reds uniform. It would have to be a block buster kind of deal for me to include him in any trade talk.

[Redlegs Homer]

I really, really, really want to see Billy Hamilton in a Reds uniform. It would have to be a block buster kind of deal for me to include him in any trade talk.

Justin Upton would qualify as a blockbuster. Bill James is projecting him to have a .372 OBP, .492 slugging%, and 28.1 wRAA. 5 tool player who would be perfect for the Reds. Billy Hamilton would be a bummer to give up before he plays in the majors but Justin Upton would make the Reds the best team in the NL.

[nmculbreth]

If you're going to put together a package along the lines of Hamilton + Corcino / Cingrani for a cleanup hitter I'd be targeting Giancarlo Stanton, not Upton. Stanton is under control for an extra year and since he's not even going to be arbitration eligible until after 2013 would carry a far more reasonable salary.

And for the record I'd pull the trigger on a Hamilton + Corcino / Cingrani + another B level prospect for Stanton in a nanosecond.

[Hondo]

If you're going to put together a package along the lines of Hamilton + Corcino / Cingrani for a cleanup hitter I'd be targeting Giancarlo Stanton, not Upton. Stanton is under control for an extra year and since he's not even going to be arbitration eligible until after 2013 would carry a far more reasonable salary.

And for the record I'd pull the trigger on a Hamilton + Corcino / Cingrani + another B level prospect for Stanton in a nanosecond.

I agree with you but Arizona wants a ML Ready SS so you wouldn't have to include Hamilton for Upton... Cozart fits the bill with Corcino, etc...

Now Hamilton for Stanton???? Yes, Please.

[dkamberi25]

I have been thinking about the possibility of trading for Upton and with Arizona publicly stating they would want SS's and SP's in return makes a trade possible. Now Upton has 3 yrs and 38 mill left which isin't top money, but it is a big number and with reports that the Reds don't want payroll to top 90 mill it may be tough to fit Upton on the squad financially. However, if the Reds feel like they can win in the next three years than its worth the risk of going slightly over budget. Also, Upton would only be 28 when his contract expires and could be moved at the deadline in his last season if he is not in the teams longterm future.

Now onto what to give up. At shortstop we have Gregorius, Hamilton and Cozart and at starting pitching we have Stephenson, Corcino and Leake. With reports stating Arizona wants major league ready players I would think the trade would have to begin with Cozart and Leake. After that I would be ok including either Stephenson or Corcino along with a lower rated prospect for Upton. However, I would have to feel really confident about Gregorius starting the season at shortstop to pull the trigger. Or if they don't feel Gregrious is ready for the bigs, than they better have some FA in line (Cedeno) to pull the trigger.

While this trade doesn't give us a legit leadoff hitter, which would force us to keep Phillips there, there are some major positives from making this move. First and foremost would be our killer 3-4-5 spot with Votto, Upton and Bruce. That would be absolute murder and with Fraizer batting behind that he should see an increase in his numbers as well. I would imagine our squad looking something like this.

Phillips
Gregrious/Cedeno
Votto
Upton
Bruce
Fraizer
Hanigan/Mesoraco
Stubbs

That number two spot is the biggest question mark, but another possible avenue for the Reds to explore if they make the Upton trade and think Gregrious is ready and don't like Cedeno is calling up the Royals and seeing how open they would be to moving Escobar. He would more than fit the bill at the number 2 spot.

[texasdave]

I always thought Arizona had a glut of starting pitchers.

[dkamberi25]

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/NickPiecoro/174147?nclick_check=1

I stumbled upon this where the writer lists what the D-Backs have listed as there top priorities.

*Add a veteran starting pitcher;

*Upgrade at third base and/or shortstop;

*Strengthen the bench (ideally with a left-handed bat, a la Lyle Overbay last season);

So the pitcher and short stop requirements are there. This got me to thinking that a deal for Upton would have to start with either Leake or Bailey. I would perfer to give up Leake, but with Latos, Cueto and Chapman moving forward including Bailey wouldn't be a dealbreaker. From there I would offer up Didi and Corcino. That would be the meat of my offer. Outside of that the only other prospects I would throw in would be middle of the road guys who are outside of our top 10-15 prospects.

While the thought of Upton on this squad and batting between Votto and Bruce with Fraizer batting 6th is very enticing, I would not go any higher than what I called out in this thread. Upton's injury history and lack of consistent production keeps me from offering a better pitcher, Stephenson, Cozart, or Hamilton in any trade for Upton.

[foxfire123]

Billy Hamilton has to be untouchable.. heck the Reds have gone years without a legit leadoff hitter.. now everybody wants to trade him?? Not me!.. Let him play CF and bat leadoff in 2013 and get rid of Stubbs.. talk about a threat at leadoff this team hasnt seen in years!!!

Yeah, this. Hamilton has been one our most exciting young players in a long time, and a bunch of y'all want to ship him off... Doesn't make sense at all to me.

[Salukifan2]

Yeah, this. Hamilton has been one our most exciting young players in a long time, and a bunch of y'all want to ship him off... Doesn't make sense at all to me.

Aroldis Chapman, Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Frazier, Stubbs. Reds have had plenty of big prospects come through in the last 5 years or so. Also, i always get confused between Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso but one of those two was ranked as a higher prospect when they got shipped to San Diego than Hamilton is right now. And that deal worked out really well for you.

[Girevik]

Yeah, this. Hamilton has been one our most exciting young players in a long time, and a bunch of y'all want to ship him off... Doesn't make sense at all to me.

I'm old enough to remember the "glory days" of the 80's when the Reds had prospect after exciting prospect in the minors that never amounted to squat at the big leauge level. Generally speaking, I'll take the proven over the potential any time. One in the hand vs. two in the bush, and all that.

[Redlegs Homer]

When you're in the Reds position, you can trade your prospects for big league players. The Reds can win the World Series with some improvements, and trading for Upton would be a huge step towards that. If it is similar to the Latos trade in terms of what the Reds give up, then that's an easy yes. I'm a pretty big fan of the Upton brothers (more BJ than Justin though) and I would love to have one on the team.

[[deleted]]

For what it's worth: MLB Trade Rumors did their NL Central Live Chat today. Someone asked what would happen if the Reds offered Billy Hamilton and Zack Cozart for Justin Upton.

Tim Dierke's response was, "I think they hang up."

[Larkin88]

Also, i always get confused between Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso but one of those two was ranked as a higher prospect when they got shipped to San Diego than Hamilton is right now. And that deal worked out really well for you.

Honestly man - and this might just be my opinion - I'm not sure using those numbers alone is a fair means of evaluation here.

And I'm not saying that I would absolutely take no offers on Hamilton or that he is somehow untouchable. I think it's unlikely he gets moved, but there's a cost for everything. I just think he easily has more value than either Grandal or Alonso did beyond some number ranking alone. His tools are historic and his upside is unprecedented in that sense. I'm not sure he gets to the apex we all are hoping for, but if he does, he has the potenail to change how the game is played.

[Salukifan2]

Ive already had this discussion on another thread. Its simply my idea that its smart to keep an open mind

[joshua]

This team hasn't had a legit leadoff hitter in how many years? 10? 15? We are no longer in a three year window to win like we were before Votto's extension. We have a young club with most of the important pieces locked up. And we can compete with what we have and afford to wait a season for Hamilton. Our leadoff/CF of the future is on his way. We just need to find our LF/Cleanup guy by then and we are set. By the time all of this comes together (2014-15) Corcino and Cingrani will also be ready to come up. I know we have pitching depth, but we can afford to wait until we literally have seven guys competing for a rotation spot, while their value is highest, to make our move. That's why I don't see all that much happening this offseason. Why move pieces now before their value is at its peak when we can wait? Why trade a historic prospect to compete this season when its not an urgent year?

[HometownHero]

Peter Gammons thinks the D-Backs like Gregorius so you never know.

Homer, Didi and something else of value the Snakes may like could get it done if the Braves and Rangers don't offer their SS prospects. Still seems like a long shot but they seem to be flipping out over a SS badly.

If they got that done and added Victorino on a short deal we could be looking at something like this.

Shane Victorino
Brandon Phillips
Joey Votto
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Ryan Hanigan

That's quite the order with 20 HR potential 1-7 and could be 1-8 if Mesoraco gets it figured out at the big league level. Would take a commitment from ownership to spend some extra cash and then the fans to show up and support the product but if nobody got hurt and Chapman could make the move to starter and be good this is a WS quality team with an extended window to dominate with Hamilton pushing to take CF soon.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Peter Gammons thinks the D-Backs like Gregorius so you never know.

Do you have a link? Or did he mention it on TV?

[HometownHero]

Do you have a link? Or did he mention it on TV?

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/274806333100937216

[MoneyInTheBank]

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/274806333100937216

Thanks for the link. That has to be something the Reds are interested in, right? I happen to prefer Gregorius to Cozart long term but if you have a chance to get Justin Upton without surrendering Hamilton, you have to be aggressively pursuing that

[HometownHero]

Thanks for the link. That has to be something the Reds are interested in, right? I happen to prefer Gregorius to Cozart long term but if you have a chance to get Justin Upton without surrendering Hamilton, you have to be aggressively pursuing that

If Gammons' read is correct and they would be interested in him for the SS prospect they crave I would be all over it as long as the other players aren't deal breakers since its dealing from depth. Upton is a very good player now and just turned 25 so there is still plenty more upside.