Justin Upton A Red?

[OneManBand]

No links or rumors but I have to think with interest in Torri Hunter that some interest would be in Upton. I can see a package around Arizona State boy; Mike Leake. Include perhaps Didi Gregorious and the package start to come together. Perhaps they could be interested in Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey.

Sure now it depends on the developement of Billy Hamilton in CF and Aroldis Chapman as a SP. It's nice to have depth.. But when you can aquire a young superstar what is really the price?

[HometownHero]

Walt has a better shot of getting a date with Kate Upton than getting BJs brother Justin from the D-Backs with those players even if you gave them all 4 of Mike, Didi, Stubbs and Heisey.

[Helms1]

Walt has a better shot of getting a date with Kate Upton than getting BJs brother Justin from the D-Backs with those players even if you gave them all 4 of Mike, Didi, Stubbs and Heisey.

Question becomes, which would he accept if he had to chose one?

[rgslone]

Question becomes, which would he accept if he had to chose one?

Now that's funny. You've got a sharp wit, Helms1.

[Helms1]

Now that's funny. You've got a sharp wit, Helms1.

For some reason we all knew that was probably going to be tweeked, but I think Walt would go for the player and the rest of us I hope would have enough PED (testosterone) to take the best offer.

[Salukifan2]

This is like the third speculative thread about Justin Upton. Every single proposed trade doesn't involve moving Hamilton to the d backs which is crazy. Upton is 25 and is a five tool proven major leaguer. That being said, a proposed trade with Hamilton as the center piece makes sense for both clubs. Hamilton's speed isn't going to be that important when patrolling the small confines of the GAB and Upton's bat would certainly flourish there with the help of the players around him and the size of the ball park.

the reds could possibly grab Upton if they were willing to give up at least HAmilton and 1 of their top pitching prospects. Cingrani, Stephenson, or Corcino.

[Alpha Zero]

While I agree that Leake and Cozart or Didi isn't enough to get a deal done, I think it's a heck of a good start. Upton is a good player, but I think people forget that while he has 3 years of team control remaining, his contract isn't exactly cheap.

I also don't get this notion that the Reds have to give up their number 1 prospect to get a player like Upton. The Reds didn't give up their number 1 or 2 prospect when they acquired Latos. The Nationals didn't give up their number 1 or 2 prospect when they acquired Gio Gonzalez. So why again do the Reds have to give up their number 1 prospect to get Upton?

I'm not saying I wouldn't give up Hamilton under any circumstances. I'm just saying it's fairly rare for a number 1 prospect to get moved even in a deal for an ace pitcher or outstanding position player with a favorable contract situation.

[Salukifan2]

Becuase Your number 1 prospect is only ranked 21st of all prospects in mlb right now soley on his ability to run. Billy hamilton is not the next ty cobb like so many have branded him. The guy only hit .286 at double A and has struck out at a rate that is comparable to Drew Stubbs in his last two full seasons. If he would have played 162 games in the past two years he would average about 140 or so k's. not so good for a future leadoff man and you can't blame it on his age becuase he is already 22 and will be probably 23 before is an everyday big leaguer.

In return you would be getting a 25 year old who in 3 of his 5 full seasons had an ops over .800 and it has never been below .775. Also he would be benefited greatly to be around players like Votto and Phillips who he can learn alot from. Not to mention his power numbers would only go up playing in cincinnati, which as i said earlier is a ball park where hamilton's speed isn't really needed in the outfield.

And in response to what you said about getting Latos, before he got busted Grandal was ranked about 5 spots ahead of Hamilton in the top 50 prospects. You also gave up Alonso who was also in the mlb top 100 prospects, so actually you gave up, at the time, more to get Latos possibly than you would have to to acquire Upton. And upton right now is a more established big leaguer than latos was a year ago.

Also, you can never look at anything Billy Beane does with normal baseball common sense. That man traded Carlos Gonzalez for matt Holiday and then traded matt Holiday to the cardinals for Brett Wallace. So no one really knows why he does the things he does

[MoneyInTheBank]

Becuase Your number 1 prospect is only ranked 21st of all prospects in mlb right now soley on his ability to run. Billy hamilton is not the next ty cobb like so many have branded him. The guy only hit .286 at double A and has struck out at a rate that is comparable to Drew Stubbs in his last two full seasons. If he would have played 162 games in the past two years he would average about 140 or so k's. not so good for a future leadoff man and you can't blame it on his age becuase he is already 22 and will be probably 23 before is an everyday big leaguer.

I hope you aren't referring to Stubbs' MLB K rate

[webbbj]

I agree w/ the above. If those are hamiltons hitting numbers, they do concern me. Plus he is 22. Now hes not old or anything but its not like he is an 18 or 19 year old phenom like harper or trout. He will be arriving to the MLs at a normal pace and is not exactly lighting it up w/ the bat at AA.

I cant wait to see him play and hope he is great. But I also dont think he is this untouchable piece many think he is.

[Salukifan2]

I'm not trying to take anything away from Billy Hamilton i think he is a great ball player and any team would want him in their system but sometimes you have to see which prospects are meant for your team or are better to be used as trade bait.

[Salukifan2]

in 2010 hamilton struck out 133 times in 135 games and in 2011 he struck out 113 in 130 games. Better but not a whole lot better and that is from baseball reference.

except for 2011 when stubbs k'd 200 times their k numbers are pretty similar.

On top of that, you don't just say one day, "i'm going to start playing centerfield," which after catcher, is the most difficult defensive position in baseball. There is no way he will be mlb ready for center field at any time in 2013. I mean for christ sake he's only played 50 games at double-A

[webbbj]

nothing against juan pierre but thats about what hamilton is projected to be as a MLB player. And Juan pierre has had a very good career and has been a great leadoff hitter w/ very good OBPs but does a prospect w/ that ceiling project as untouchable?

I wouldnt be openly shopping him but if AZ called and said Upton is available lets start the negotiation w/ Hamilton. The Reds have to listen.

[Salukifan2]

He's got more pop than pierre but not alot more, and pierre's batting average was much higher in the minors.

[webbbj]

Im not saying they are exactly the same but they are close enough to compare.

[Salukifan2]

agreed

[MoneyInTheBank]

in 2010 hamilton struck out 133 times in 135 games and in 2011 he struck out 113 in 130 games. Better but not a whole lot better and that is from baseball reference.

except for 2011 when stubbs k'd 200 times their k numbers are pretty similar.

On top of that, you don't just say one day, "i'm going to start playing centerfield," which after catcher, is the most difficult defensive position in baseball. There is no way he will be mlb ready for center field at any time in 2013. I mean for christ sake he's only played 50 games at double-A

Drew Stubbs K%:
2010 - 28.8%
2011 - 30.1%
2012 - 30.5%

Billy Hamilton K%:
2010 - 17.7%
2011 - 21.8%
2012 - 18.4%

As far as moving to CF, Robin Yount & Craig Biggio both made that exact change. Not to mention, Hamilton took a round of BP in CF all last season, will be playing it in the AFL then again in the spring. Will he be ready for the majors at the beginning of the season? Highly doubtful. Can he be sometime in 2013? Absolutely he can.

[Salukifan2]

Drew Stubbs K%:
2010 - 28.8%
2011 - 30.1%
2012 - 30.5%

Billy Hamilton K%:
2010 - 17.7%
2011 - 21.8%
2012 - 18.4%

As far as moving to CF, Robin Yount & Craig Biggio both made that exact change. Not to mention, Hamilton took a round of BP in CF all last season, will be playing it in the AFL then again in the spring. Will he be ready for the majors at the beginning of the season? Highly doubtful. Can he be sometime in 2013? Absolutely he can.

You just proved my point with those stats. That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.

Also, biggio played less than 200 career games in CF. Also craig biggio is a hall of famer with 3 thousand hits and so is yount. If they are capable of that kind of production you have to find a spot for them.

Therefore, you just compared a 22 yr old who hasn't even played half a season at double a to two first ballot hall of famers. I didn't say Hamilton will be bust. I just don't think he will be playing major league center field before 2014 and that kind of talent is worth giving up if youre talking about Justin Upton in return

[MoneyInTheBank]

You just proved my point with those stats. That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.

Also, biggio played less than 200 career games in CF. Also craig biggio is a hall of famer with 3 thousand hits and so is yount. If they are capable of that kind of production you have to find a spot for them.

Therefore, you just compared a 22 yr old who hasn't even played half a season at double a to two first ballot hall of famers. I didn't say Hamilton will be bust. I just don't think he will be playing major league center field before 2014 and that kind of talent is worth giving up if youre talking about Justin Upton in return

You said he and Stubbs had similar K rates. The only thing I proved was that they don't, nothing else. It's also not the end of the world to have a 20% K rate as a leadoff man. The most sought after leadoff man this offseason has a career K rate of over 20% in Michael Bourn. Dexter Fowler has a career K rate of 22.5%. 2nd Place in the MVP, Mike Trout had a K rate of 21.8%. Austin Jackson 21.7%. Ideal? No. Catastrophic? No.

I compared Hamilton to no one. You said you can't just decide one day to play CF and do it. I said it's been done. No comparison was made whatsoever.

[JayStubbs]

I can give you 40 million and one reasons why the Reds don't need to trade Hamilton to get J. Upton.

The first 40 million are dollars owed to Upton over the next three years. Chances are Hamilton provides close to the same value over the same years, for around $2M.

The one other reason is ths D-Backs have been trying to trade Upton for the last three years. Teams don't try to trade all-star caliber players under the age of 25 unless there are other issues beyond the box score. Rumors have swarmed Upton his whole career that he's a negative in the clubhouse, that he's not dedicated to improving or winning.

Upton isn't a bad target, but the price has to be nice. Didi, Bailey and change is more than enough. No way he justifies a top 25 prospect in the game.

[Salukifan2]

Thats just another opinion. I was just speaking my opinion that i think 1. hamilton for upton is a deal worth jumping on and 2. hamilton is being is being a little over blown as a prospect. Which is all he is remember. Only 50 games in double-a. I just think that any leadoff hitter who strikes out that much and has that unimpressive of a batting average when they are his age is kinda unsettling and that justin upton is a proven major leaguer. thats all.

And there is also a reason they have held on to him for the last three seasons.

I could be very wrong, if hamilton blows up and goes crazy you can rub it in my face publicly

[webbbj]

Upton isn't a bad target, but the price has to be nice. Didi, Bailey and change is more than enough. No way he justifies a top 25 prospect in the game.

now thats a trade I would not make. I also dont want to trade Hamilton, but I do think he is an overrated prospect. By that I mean I dont think hes untouchable.

[webbbj]

I can give you 40 million and one reasons why the Reds don't need to trade Hamilton to get J. Upton.

The first 40 million are dollars owed to Upton over the next three years. Chances are Hamilton provides close to the same value over the same years, for around $2M.



I agree, and didnt realize the $ amt Upton was owed. I was under the impression he was still relatively cheap.

Now, players I would start a conversation about hamilton would be w/ Giancarlo Stanton, Starlin Castro, brett lawrie and that might be it.

A cheap young player player under contract for many years that is highly regarded. I doubt any of those guys are available but who knows. And there may be some players I havent thought of.

[OneManBand]

Becuase Your number 1 prospect is only ranked 21st of all prospects in mlb right now soley on his ability to run. Billy hamilton is not the next ty cobb like so many have branded him. The guy only hit .286 at double A and has struck out at a rate that is comparable to Drew Stubbs in his last two full seasons. If he would have played 162 games in the past two years he would average about 140 or so k's. not so good for a future leadoff man and you can't blame it on his age becuase he is already 22 and will be probably 23 before is an everyday big leaguer.

In return you would be getting a 25 year old who in 3 of his 5 full seasons had an ops over .800 and it has never been below .775. Also he would be benefited greatly to be around players like Votto and Phillips who he can learn alot from. Not to mention his power numbers would only go up playing in cincinnati, which as i said earlier is a ball park where hamilton's speed isn't really needed in the outfield.

And in response to what you said about getting Latos, before he got busted Grandal was ranked about 5 spots ahead of Hamilton in the top 50 prospects. You also gave up Alonso who was also in the mlb top 100 prospects, so actually you gave up, at the time, more to get Latos possibly than you would have to to acquire Upton. And upton right now is a more established big leaguer than latos was a year ago.

Also, you can never look at anything Billy Beane does with normal baseball common sense. That man traded Carlos Gonzalez for matt Holiday and then traded matt Holiday to the cardinals for Brett Wallace. So no one really knows why he does the things he does

Batting .311 with a .410 OBP & stealing a minor league record 155 bases would be a sign of a player not doing well for me let me tell you. Yes he batted .283 in AA but also got on base over 40% of the time.

The Blue Jays didn't give up Gose, d'Arnaud, or Lawrie to obtain 90% of the Marlins payroll. So the Reds shouldn't need to deal their top prospect to obtain a player that the DBacks have been saying is available for 2 seasons now. I never said that it was all the players included. I'd include Corcino with Leake, Didi, & Stubbs. That is a solid return for a team who would want major league ready players along with some soon to be ready talent. Now 2-3 weeks from now when Upton is dealt for a package similar to Didi & Corcino you guys will be all up in arms that the Reds didn't pull the trigger. Arizona will not get as much as some think as he is soon to make extra money to go along with his 17 HRs and around 70 RBIs.

[rgslone]

I agree that the strikeout propensity of Hamilton and Stubbs are not comparable. To put it in perspective, Dave Kingman was a player infamous for and considered synonymous with strikeouts in the 70s and 80s. During the season of his highest strikeout total his strikeout percentage was only 29.16%. I'm not going to research it, but it seems to me that Stubbs may just be in a historical class by himself when it comes to whiffing.

Still, I think Hamilton's strikeout rate has been a little higher than stated in the thread [e.g., 2009 (28.31%); 2010 (19.79%); 2011 (24.18%); 2012 (22.07%)]. So, Hamilton's strikeout rate still needs improvement - but the reports on him are that he understands this and has been working on and improving his approach to make better contact. His work ethic and desire to keep improving (again, as reported by others, like Doug Dirt) are big reasons I think Hamilton will succeed on a major league roster.

[Salukifan2]

The main point of wat i was saying is that many people on this board have elevated hamilton to demi god status. To a point where youd only give him up for for someone like miguel cabrera or trout or harper and hes just not that kind of prospect.

Honestly based the numbers he has put up to this point in the minors he is almost the exact same player as dee gordon. Their numbers are honestly eerily similar. and so are there body types. The difference between the two is that hamilton has stolen more bases but also struck out alot more. and Gordon actually had more total bases even though he only stole about half as many. Now, would you have said the dodgers were crazy for trading dee gordon for upton if they did? No, you would call it a steal.

Lastly anyone who thinks hamilton is going to steal bases like that off major league pitchers an catchers is crazy. Ill give him between 40 and 60 bags a year till he is 30 but he isnt rickey henderson. He is a good player that every organization wants but he isn't bryce harper

[Salukifan2]

It's also not the end of the world to have a 20% K rate as a leadoff man. The most sought after leadoff man this offseason has a career K rate of over 20% in Michael Bourn. Dexter Fowler has a career K rate of 22.5%. 2nd Place in the MVP, Mike Trout had a K rate of 21.8%. Austin Jackson 21.7%. Ideal? No. Catastrophic? No.



1.) Hamilton is not comparable to Jackson because jackson is power hitting run producing leadoff hitter. And so is mike trout (who will not be batting leadoff next year) so also not really comparable.

2.) being a cards fan i saw how overrated bourn was in houston and in atlanta. he is .272 career hitter, only had a obp of .350 once, and has never had 200 hits. he is the most overrated leadoff hitter. Honestly, Bourn's numbers are barely better than his predecessor in houston Willy Taveras.

3.) Fowler has a good career obp but is still a .271 career batter.

Hamilton is a leadoff hitter who relies on his legs to get on base, thats evident from his his lack of extra base hits. And if he is striking out at a 20% clip thats alot worse than jackson because he had 55 xb hits, trout had 65 xb hits, and while fowler only had 42 xb hits in'12 he had 55 in'11. In 50 games at double-a hamilton had a whopping 10 xb hits.

If you're saying hamilton is similar to any of these players then he is definitely movable. A deal with any of those players for Upton would be a good trade unless you already had a stacked outfield

[Alpha Zero]

Somehow this has devolved into a discussion of Hamilton's worth as a prospect. Is he overhyped? Yes, probably. Is he untouchable? No, he should be available in the right deal. But would Upton be that "right deal?". I don't really think so. Obviously you do. Now if it's Hamilton for Upton straight up? That's a different story, but Arizona is going to want more than one guy for Upton, probably more like 3-4.

I'm only willing to deal packages including top prospects for guys who are clear difference makers and are under team control for a while for a reasonable amount of money. Latos was that guy. I'm not so sure that Upton is. His contract isn't outlandish, but it's not cheap. Regardless of what you think of him as a player, that hurts his trade value a bit, period.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Still, I think Hamilton's strikeout rate has been a little higher than stated in the thread [e.g., 2009 (28.31%); 2010 (19.79%); 2011 (24.18%); 2012 (22.07%)]. So, Hamilton's strikeout rate still needs improvement - but the reports on him are that he understands this and has been working on and improving his approach to make better contact. His work ethic and desire to keep improving (again, as reported by others, like Doug Dirt) are big reasons I think Hamilton will succeed on a major league roster.

I believe you are using the incorrect formula for K%. It should be K's divided by Plate Appearances. I think you are using K's divided by At-Bats. Not a big deal but that's why my numbers are lower.

[MoneyInTheBank]

1.) Hamilton is not comparable to Jackson because jackson is power hitting run producing leadoff hitter. And so is mike trout (who will not be batting leadoff next year) so also not really comparable.

2.) being a cards fan i saw how overrated bourn was in houston and in atlanta. he is .272 career hitter, only had a obp of .350 once, and has never had 200 hits. he is the most overrated leadoff hitter. Honestly, Bourn's numbers are barely better than his predecessor in houston Willy Taveras.

3.) Fowler has a good career obp but is still a .271 career batter.

Hamilton is a leadoff hitter who relies on his legs to get on base, thats evident from his his lack of extra base hits. And if he is striking out at a 20% clip thats alot worse than jackson because he had 55 xb hits, trout had 65 xb hits, and while fowler only had 42 xb hits in'12 he had 55 in'11. In 50 games at double-a hamilton had a whopping 10 xb hits.

If you're saying hamilton is similar to any of these players then he is definitely movable. A deal with any of those players for Upton would be a good trade unless you already had a stacked outfield

Just because I use 2 names in the same post does not mean I'm comparing them. Just like with Yount and Biggio, absolutely, positively ZERO comparison was made other than Yount and Biggio made the switch when you said it can't happen and that those other leadoff hitters have a 20% K rate when you said that was a horrible rate for a leadoff man. I'm not the one using stats to try and prove Hamilton's worth. You are using statistics to disprove his worth and when I give evidence to the contrary you turn it around on me as if I'm throwing around comparable players.

I'm not going to get into the stuff about you devaluing Bourn and Fowler, which I totally disagree with, but I don't want to further stray from the topic

[Salukifan2]

You were comparong them. You were comparing their strikeout percentages to hamiltons to show that it wasnt a big deal. I was demonstrating that it actually is a bigger deal beacause hamilton is not a run producer like all the names you listed except bourn and bourn's career numbers (if you go to baseball reference) are truly uninspiring. I know thats not what this thread is about but serioualy all anyone has to do is look at his stats and youll see that any team who.offers him more than 8 mil a yr max is crazy.

[MoneyInTheBank]

You were comparong them. You were comparing their strikeout percentages to hamiltons to show that it wasnt a big deal. I was demonstrating that it actually is a bigger deal beacause hamilton is not a run producer like all the names you listed except bourn and bourn's career numbers (if you go to baseball reference) are truly uninspiring. I know thats not what this thread is about but serioualy all anyone has to do is look at his stats and youll see that any team who.offers him more than 8 mil a yr max is crazy.

I compared one statistic among leadoff hitters in response to this statement "That is your lead off hitter striking out once every 5 at bats. thats not good.". There was no discussion about run production or player types. I listed some above average leadoff hitters who had rates similar to Hamilton. That is all. I was not comparing Hamilton to Trout, Bourn, Jackson, Fowler, Yount or Biggio.

I would like to point something out about Hamilton since this is not going away. Hamilton is a right handed hitter. When he was drafted, the Reds suggested he start switch hitting. As a switch hitter a strong majority of your ABs come as a left handed hitter. This doesn't excuse his K rate but it helps to explain it. He's learning on the job.

Hamilton is certainly older than you would normally like for a top prospect to be at the same stage of development. He's not a can't miss superstar prospect. He should not be untouchable under all circumstances. However, there are things about him that you can't deny. He has been getting on base at a 40% clip. Scouts say he has the fastest home to first they have ever timed. Anthony Gose, who is in the discussion for fastest player in the MLB right now said "if I'm an 80 (on the scouts scale of 20-80 in speed), then Hamilton's a 100". We aren't talking about a speedy prospect, we may be talking about a prospect with speed that could transcend baseball. When a prospect has a tool like that, you'd like to do all you can to see it through in your organization.

[rgslone]

I believe you are using the incorrect formula for K%. It should be K's divided by Plate Appearances. I think you are using K's divided by At-Bats. Not a big deal but that's why my numbers are lower.

You are correct. I see now we were using different methods to calculate strikeout %. The method I was using (relying on ABs) is, I think, the traditional method - and still used by many baseball statistic sites. However, I believe the method you used (relying on PAs) is a better measure. Thanks, I learned something. I guess now I understand that if comparing strikout % from different sources, I need to make sure how it was calculated - otherwise it's not an accurate comparison.

[MoneyInTheBank]

You are correct. I see now we were using different methods to calculate strikeout %. The method I was using (relying on ABs) is, I think, the traditional method - and still used by many baseball statistic sites. However, I believe the method you used (relying on PAs) is a better measure. Thanks, I learned something. I guess now I understand that if comparing strikout % from different sources, I need to make sure how it was calculated - otherwise it's not an accurate comparison.

I was not aware of the method relying on ABs. I've learned something myself. So I'll have to be alert myself when I see K% reported on different sites.

FYI. I was using fangraphs for that K%. I like the PA method as well. I feel it is a better indicator of performance because it accounts for walks.

[webbbj]

Somehow this has devolved into a discussion of Hamilton's worth as a prospect. Is he overhyped? Yes, probably. Is he untouchable? No, he should be available in the right deal. But would Upton be that "right deal?". I don't really think so. Obviously you do. Now if it's Hamilton for Upton straight up? That's a different story, but Arizona is going to want more than one guy for Upton, probably more like 3-4.

I'm only willing to deal packages including top prospects for guys who are clear difference makers and are under team control for a while for a reasonable amount of money. Latos was that guy. I'm not so sure that Upton is. His contract isn't outlandish, but it's not cheap. Regardless of what you think of him as a player, that hurts his trade value a bit, period.

This is the right answer but Im not sure there are many of those guys out there who are teams that would be willing to trade.

[JayStubbs]

The main point of wat i was saying is that many people on this board have elevated hamilton to demi god status. To a point where youd only give him up for for someone like miguel cabrera or trout or harper and hes just not that kind of prospect.

Honestly based the numbers he has put up to this point in the minors he is almost the exact same player as dee gordon. Their numbers are honestly eerily similar. and so are there body types. The difference between the two is that hamilton has stolen more bases but also struck out alot more. and Gordon actually had more total bases even though he only stole about half as many. Now, would you have said the dodgers were crazy for trading dee gordon for upton if they did? No, you would call it a steal.

Lastly anyone who thinks hamilton is going to steal bases like that off major league pitchers an catchers is crazy. Ill give him between 40 and 60 bags a year till he is 30 but he isnt rickey henderson. He is a good player that every organization wants but he isn't bryce harper

All good points. However two counterpoints.

First, if you compare Hamilton to Gordon based on where there were at the same age, Hamilton blows Gordon away. Career minor league numbers can be misleading. The best way to evaluate a minor leaguer is to watch his progression. As he moves up and gets older does he eventually improve? That clearly was the case with Hamilton, and not so much with Gordon.

I can understand why someone who hasn't seen Hamilton play would be willing to trade him. However, most of us who live around Cincinnati have seen him play in Dayton, and that makes a huge difference in evaluating him.

I personally have seen him turn a one hopper to the left field wall into a stand up inside the park homerun, with no misplays by the defense.

I have seen him turn numerous bunts into triples as the defense panics to get him out at first.

I have seen numerous cleanly fielded, routine groundballs to SS turn into easy singles for Hamilton, with perfect throws.

Others have seen him score from second after tagging on a infield pop up.

Others have seen him score from second on groundball back to the pitcher.

Others have seen him, as a SS, catch a flyball to leftfield, that the leftfielder lost in the lights... just a few feet from the warning track.

And none of these have anything to do with stealing bases.

His speed isn't just great, it's one of a kind, game changing speed. Literally all groundballs to the infield are possible hits, with his speed. No one else in my lifetime has ever been that fast.

He also has an outstanding work ethic, dedication to the game, baseball smarts, and athleticism that will likely help him improve as continues to play.

I guarantee you that if you saw him play, you would change your opinion of him.

[Larry Largen]

It looks like Upton will be a phillie soon. Without a big trade the Reds aren't going to make a big splash on he free agent market.

[Salukifan2]

All good points. However two counterpoints.

First, if you compare Hamilton to Gordon based on where there were at the same age, Hamilton blows Gordon away. Career minor league numbers can be misleading. The best way to evaluate a minor leaguer is to watch his progression. As he moves up and gets older does he eventually improve? That clearly was the case with Hamilton, and not so much with Gordon.

I can understand why someone who hasn't seen Hamiltaon play would be willing to trade him. However, most of us who live around Cincinnati have seen him play in Dayton, and that makes a huge difference in evaluating him.

I personally have seen him turn a one hopper to the left field wall into a stand up inside the park homerun, with no misplays by the defense.

I have seen him turn numerous bunts into triples as the defense panics to get him out at first.

I have seen numerous cleanly fielded, routine groundballs to SS turn into easy singles for Hamilton, with perfect throws.

Others have seen him score from second after tagging on a infield pop up.

Others have seen him score from second on groundball back to the pitcher.

Others have seen him, as a SS, catch a flyball to leftfield, that the leftfielder lost in the lights... just a few feet from the warning track.

And none of these have anything to do with stealing bases.

His speed isn't just great, it's one of a kind, game changing speed. Literally all groundballs to the infield are possible hits, with his speed. No one else in my lifetime has ever been that fast.

He also has an outstanding work ethic, dedication to the game, baseball smarts, and athleticism that will likely help him improve as continues to play.

I guarantee you that if you saw him play, you would change your opinion of him.

I have said repeatedly that hamilton is a very good prospect that every team would want.

But, everyone is expendable at thr right price. If people here dont think tradin hamilton for upton is or was a good idea then that is fine. I personally would move hamilton who as of now is a two tool player for a proven 5 tool player that is only three years older. Just because that opinion isn't popular on a red's board doesn't make it radical.

[JayStubbs]

I have said repeatedly that hamilton is a very good prospect that every team would want.

But, everyone is expendable at thr right price. If people here dont think tradin hamilton for upton is or was a good idea then that is fine. I personally would move hamilton who as of now is a two tool player for a proven 5 tool player that is only three years older. Just because that opinion isn't popular on a red's board doesn't make it radical.

Upton is a five tool player that has been basically a league average player most of his career, including his last season, who will be getting paid like an all-star for the next three years.

Hamilton projects to be at least league average, and will be paid close to league minimum over those same three years, plus three more years of team control.

Even of Hamilton turns into a Stubbs clone, I'd still rather have that than Upton for $40M. And that doesn't even take Upton's attitude issues into account.

Right now, if the Reds were willing to spend $40M over the next three years, they could easily get Swisher, Youk, Bourn, Pegan or even Justin's brother B.J. for less money and no prospects.

[Hondo]

Batting .311 with a .410 OBP & stealing a minor league record 155 bases would be a sign of a player not doing well for me let me tell you. Yes he batted .283 in AA but also got on base over 40% of the time.

The Blue Jays didn't give up Gose, d'Arnaud, or Lawrie to obtain 90% of the Marlins payroll. So the Reds shouldn't need to deal their top prospect to obtain a player that the DBacks have been saying is available for 2 seasons now. I never said that it was all the players included. I'd include Corcino with Leake, Didi, & Stubbs. That is a solid return for a team who would want major league ready players along with some soon to be ready talent. Now 2-3 weeks from now when Upton is dealt for a package similar to Didi & Corcino you guys will be all up in arms that the Reds didn't pull the trigger. Arizona will not get as much as some think as he is soon to make extra money to go along with his 17 HRs and around 70 RBIs.

Thankyou for this post... I don't have to add anything other that, yeah... The Blue Jays didn't give up their best, and the Nationals didn't give up Harper to get Gonzalez...

Leake, Didi/Cozart, and 2 prospects probably get this done... I mean, Arizona wants relief help every day so send them anyone other than Chapman...

Also, you all know Stanton is going to be available sooner than later, sooner because the owner down there is an idiot and gets rid of anyone who criticizes him, so if I were the Reds, I would Ship Hamilton + to Miami for Stanton...

[Redlegs Homer]

I would be hesitant to trade Hamilton or any major prospect for Upton. He just had a huge slump last year. He was still a good above average player but not one to give up a prospect for. His slugging%, wOBA, and wRC+ were down so his batting was worse, but his fielding also fell off big time. If Ludwick is gone which would make sense because he will get overpaid for a freakishly overachieving season, the Reds will have to make a gamble for left field for 2013 whether that's a trade or hoping for a breakout season by a young player.

[OneManBand]

Stanton could be potentially gone as well. They recently signed Juan Pierre and with the emergence of Ruggiano an potential of LoMo they could look to bolster other areas.

I still like the match up with Arizona but I would love an extra 30 HRs added to the line up!

[Salukifan2]

Please tell me you'd all get behind moving Hamilton for Stanton?

[Alpha Zero]

Please tell me you'd all get behind moving Hamilton for Stanton?

I think that's one we can all get behind.

[Redlegs Homer]

Stanton could be potentially gone as well. They recently signed Juan Pierre and with the emergence of Ruggiano an potential of LoMo they could look to bolster other areas.

I still like the match up with Arizona but I would love an extra 30 HRs added to the line up!

Stanton would be worth anything the Reds could offer for him. He had a slugging% of .600 AND a wOBA over .400. That is absurd. Only 2012 & 2010 Miguel Cabrera, 2011 & 2010 Jose Bautista, 2010 Josh Hamilton, and 2010 Joey Votto have done that in the past 3 years. I know he is a right fielder but you would sacrifice some fielding for that hitting. If he's traded, expect a team to give up everything to get him. A theoretical lineup with Votto-Stanton-Bruce would be a nightmare for pitchers. Stanton would hit 50 home runs in GABP.

[Helms1]

Stanton would be worth anything the Reds could offer for him. He had a slugging% of .600 AND a wOBA over .400. That is absurd. Only 2012 & 2010 Miguel Cabrera, 2011 & 2010 Jose Bautista, 2010 Josh Hamilton, and 2010 Joey Votto have done that in the past 3 years. I know he is a right fielder but you would sacrifice some fielding for that hitting. If he's traded, expect a team to give up everything to get him. A theoretical lineup with Votto-Stanton-Bruce would be a nightmare for pitchers. Stanton would hit 50 home runs in GABP.

I'll take one please.

[Redlegs Homer]

I'll take one please.

If the Reds could get him without giving up Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Cueto, Chapman, or Latos it would be a no-brainer.

[Helms1]

If the Reds could get him without giving up Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Cueto, Chapman, or Latos it would be a no-brainer.

All much ado about nothing but I would trade Phillips or Bruce in a heart beat for Stanton in a deal. Since we are just joshing around.

[rgslone]

All much ado about nothing but I would trade Phillips or Bruce in a heart beat for Stanton in a deal. Since we are just joshing around.

I understand you're only talking hypothetically, but are you looking at it from a perspective of "Stanton is better, younger, etc. than Bruce or Phillips" or do you think the trade would make the Reds significantly better - or maybe both? I'm thinking maybe if such a trade were made the Reds wouldn't really be better off, because then they would have to turn around and find a comparable player to replace Bruce or Phillips.

[alwaysawarrior]

I understand you're only talking hypothetically, but are you looking at it from a perspective of "Stanton is better, younger, etc. than Bruce or Phillips" or do you think the trade would make the Reds significantly better - or maybe both? I'm thinking maybe if such a trade were made the Reds wouldn't really be better off, because then they would have to turn around and find a comparable player to replace Bruce or Phillips.

I like Phillips and Bruce a lot. If we get could get Stanton for either one we are much better immediately.
I don't see the fish trading Stanton anytime soon as there is really no reason to. Unless he is mad enough to really want out immediately, even then they are going to want a ton, and rightfully so.

[Redlegs Homer]

All much ado about nothing but I would trade Phillips or Bruce in a heart beat for Stanton in a deal. Since we are just joshing around.

I don't know about Phillips because he's probably been my favorite Red since he joined the team, but yeah I would give up Bruce. Obviously it's a pipedream but Stanton would be so much fun to watch at GABP. He had 37 homers in a pitchers park last year as a 22 year old.

[Hondo]

A lot of you are wasting your time talking about Phillips and Bruce... Miami just did a salary dump... If you haven't read the news lately (Sarcasm) so they are not going to move Stanton for players making $10 Million +

So, when the Marlins obviously decide to trade Stanton like when they traded Cabrera... You're going to have to give up prospects and probably take on an extra Salary... Like Nolasco who makes $11.5 Million in 2013...

Well, IMHO if the Reds had to give up Corcino, Lutz, Soto, Leake, and whoever else cheap to get Stanton and take on Nolasco's salary for 2013, well I would absolutely do that... But you're going to have to come up with a similar package to Detroit's package for Cabrera and Willis... Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and minor league pitchers Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop going to Marlins...

[Hondo]

Per Peter Gammons:

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo


Clear 'Backs will lobbytalk Upton if Gregorius, Bogaerts, Simmons or Profar is avaliable, whivh none on, thus far

So if DiDi is indeed of interest to the Diamondbacks... Please Walt, Pull the trigger for Justin Upton to play left instead of paying Ludwick $7 Million to $10 Million per year!

[Redsfansince72]

Per Peter Gammons:

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo



So if DiDi is indeed of interest to the Diamondbacks... Please Walt, Pull the trigger for Justin Upton to play left instead of paying Ludwick $7 Million to $10 Million per year!

I totally agree.. batting 4th protecting Votto would be huge!!!.. Then get a leadoff hitter would solidify our lineup!

[Hondo]

I totally agree.. batting 4th protecting Votto would be huge!!!.. Then get a leadoff hitter would solidify our lineup!

Great Minds think alike!

[Redsfansince72]

if what wildman walker says on the "Old Red Guard" saying 2 Reds sources saying Reds about to get Ellsbury for Stubbs and Corcino. Then Reds could deal for Upton.WOW that would make our offense awesome.
Ellsbury CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Upton LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Mez C

WOW that would be huge. Then they only have to fix the bench :)

[Hondo]

if what wildman walker says on the "Old Red Guard" saying 2 Reds sources saying Reds about to get Ellsbury for Stubbs and Corcino. Then Reds could deal for Upton.WOW that would make our offense awesome.
Ellsbury CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Upton LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Mez C

WOW that would be huge. Then they only have to fix the bench :)

That lineup makes me want to buy season tickets and I don't even live in the state.

[Larkin88]

if what wildman walker says on the "Old Red Guard" saying 2 Reds sources saying Reds about to get Ellsbury for Stubbs and Corcino. Then Reds could deal for Upton.WOW that would make our offense awesome.
Ellsbury CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Upton LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Mez C

WOW that would be huge. Then they only have to fix the bench :)

I'm skeptically hopeful that the Reds will be able to deal for either Ellsbury or Upton, but I will be floored if they were able to pull off both. Just don't know if we have enough bullets to get that done.

This Jacoby rumor/non-rumor/whatever Wildman is carrying on about certainly is interesting.

[Redlegs Homer]

if what wildman walker says on the "Old Red Guard" saying 2 Reds sources saying Reds about to get Ellsbury for Stubbs and Corcino. Then Reds could deal for Upton.WOW that would make our offense awesome.
Ellsbury CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Upton LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Hanigan/Mez C

WOW that would be huge. Then they only have to fix the bench :)

That would be amazing. The only reason why this team wouldn't win the World Series would be because of injuries or horrible luck.