Dexter Fowler

[panzecaz03]

Heard his name being a possible target for the Reds leadoff hitter.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Jon Paul Morosi is speculating on a Bailey for Fowler swap...

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/could_fowler_for_bailey_heat_up_at_meetings/12345181

[Alpha Zero]

Jon Paul Morosi is speculating on a Bailey for Fowler swap...

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/could_fowler_for_bailey_heat_up_at_meetings/12345181

Not sure how I feel about this. I like Fowler, but I hate to see the rotation take a hit. Bailey was a huge part of the Reds' success last year, and I've been one of his detractors in the past. If the Reds are going to deal Bailey, I think I'd rather go after Alex Gordon.

[HometownHero]

Dexter Fowler is all Coors Field and it would be a mistake to deal Homer for him.

Fowler's Career Splits
.295/.395/.487/.882 at Home
.248/.331/.367/.698 on Road

Homer's road numbers will get teams attention but hopefully we notice the splits for Fowler too and not make a major mistake here.

[DocRed]

Hell yes, all day every day. They won't do it though.

[Alpha Zero]

Dexter Fowler is all Coors Field would be a mistake to deal Homer for him.

Fowler's Career Splits
.295/.395/.487/.882 at Home
.248/.331/.367/.698 on Road

Homer's road numbers will get teams attention but hopefully we notice the splits for Fowler too and not make a major mistake here.

The splits don't really bother me as much as they would with a lot of guys since Fowler plays in the only hitter's park in the NL West. A lot of his road games are played in SF and SD. The real red flag with Fowler is his .390 BABIP last season. I don't think he'll duplicate that. He's good, but not as good as he was in 2012.

[dMaus14]

If they want Bailey they need to take Stubbs too. That clears money and then I would honestly make a run at Justin Upton.

Fowler - CF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Upton - LF
Bruce - RF
Frazier - 3B
Cozart / Didi - SS
Hanigan / Mesoraco - C

I think that lineup may do some damage, but again like the Latos trade people have to be okay with parting with prospects. As long as we don't give up Corcinco, Stephenson or Cingrani, personally I am fine with any prospects going. We need to keep pitching in house because we won't get FA.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The splits don't really bother me as much as they would with a lot of guys since Fowler plays in the only hitter's park in the NL West. A lot of his road games are played in SF and SD. The real red flag with Fowler is his .390 BABIP last season. I don't think he'll duplicate that. He's good, but not as good as he was in 2012.

His home park had a 1.579 PF (park factor) with division foes having PFs of 1.171 (Arizona), .867 (LA), .854 (SD), .737 (SF). His new home park would have a PF of 1.113 with division foes having 1.168 (Milwaukee), 1.024 (Chicago), .985 (St. Louis), .764 (Pittsburgh). I was actually surprised to see this. I was fully expecting the difference to be much greater.

[HometownHero]

The splits don't really bother me as much as they would with a lot of guys since Fowler plays in the only hitter's park in the NL West. A lot of his road games are played in SF and SD. The real red flag with Fowler is his .390 BABIP last season. I don't think he'll duplicate that. He's good, but not as good as he was in 2012.

The West also has Chase field when is a big time hitters park that had the 2nd most runs in the NL last year and a place he's hit 3 of his 8 HR away from Denver. He has a .827 OPS there in 99 AB helping his .698 road OPS in 913 AB.

This move will make Cards fans do cartwheels if it goes down.

[Salukifan2]

The West also has Chase field when is a big time hitters park that had the 2nd most runs in the NL last year and a place he's hit 3 of his 8 HR away from Denver. He has a .827 OPS there in 99 AB helping his .698 road OPS in 913 AB.

This move will make Cards fans do cartwheels if it goes down.

I've assumed the position haha

[holster10]

I wouldn't deal Bailey for Fowler. I like Fowler but I not for Bailey. I'd prefer to see Leake moved along with a prospect or two. You gotta think the Reds are a bit down on Leake with the year he had and how he pitched in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Bailey was incredible in his playoff appearance vs. the Giants so you have to think the Reds would be reluctant to move him. My vote is to retain Bailey.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I wouldn't deal Bailey for Fowler. I like Fowler but I not for Bailey. I'd prefer to see Leake moved along with a prospect or two. You gotta think the Reds are a bit down on Leake with the year he had and how he pitched in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Bailey was incredible in his playoff appearance vs. the Giants so you have to think the Reds would be reluctant to move him. My vote is to retain Bailey.

Other teams saw the same things. That's why organizations have to internally evaluate their players and know them better than what other teams can see sitting in the stands or watching on TV. So, other teams will be up on Homer right now, but the Reds need to know him better than those other teams and either keep him knowing 2nd half Homer is what we should expect going forward or trade him at his peak value knowing that it was an aberration.

[GotHeeeeem]

Its gunna take Bailey to get Fowler. We have 7 pitchers I'm comfortable with in the rotation right now. I would do it.

[WDE]

Wouldn't be too bad, but we couldn't give up too much. He is not worth Billy Hamilton or Bailey.

[dkamberi25]

If they want Bailey they need to take Stubbs too. That clears money and then I would honestly make a run at Justin Upton.

Fowler - CF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Upton - LF
Bruce - RF
Frazier - 3B
Cozart / Didi - SS
Hanigan / Mesoraco - C

I think that lineup may do some damage, but again like the Latos trade people have to be okay with parting with prospects. As long as we don't give up Corcinco, Stephenson or Cingrani, personally I am fine with any prospects going. We need to keep pitching in house because we won't get FA.

If you move Bailey and Stubbs for Fowler, what would you than move for Upton? I am under the impression that it will take a combination of 3 MLB ready players/top 10 prospects to leand Upton. The deal I keep coming back to for upton is Leake, Gregirous and Corcino as the centerpiece of the deal for Upton.

So I ask you what would you give for Upton after moving Bailey and Stubbs because you show Cozart/Didi at short and I am all but certain one of those guys would have to go the other way to get Upton. Also, if Bailey is moved for Fowler, to get Upton your going to have to include a SP (most likely Leake). So after the trades you lose 2 starters and have a hole at the 5th spot that you would be relying on a prospect like Corcino or Cingrani (whomever doesn't go to Arizona) to be a full time starter.

As much as I would like to have both Fowler and Upton on board, we would take too big a hit in our starting pitching and would be relying way too much on a prospect who has never pitched in the majors to help fill the void. To me that's too big a risk to take.

[holster10]

what i don't get is that for years...even decades, the Reds struggled to be competitive due to lack of quality starting pitching and now they finally have it. then, you are willing to trade away one of the Reds better starters in Bailey and then rely more heavily on Mike Leake and an unproven starter in Chapman in 2013? And if you go the Chapman route, invariably there will be someone else, such as Redmond, picking up the innings slack for Chapman. No thanks.....again as I see this "potentially" weakening the rotation. Bailey is only traded if the front office feels like he won't sign long term.

[drowg14]

After seeing this

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/nl-west-rumors-otani-rockies-minor-nelson.html


I can't imagine Fowler would cost Bailey.

[Larkin88]

After seeing this

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/nl-west-rumors-otani-rockies-minor-nelson.html


I can't imagine Fowler would cost Bailey.

That's actually pretty encouraging. I would love Fowler and Mike Minor is much closer in value to a Leake+ package than one centered around Homer.

If the Rox are wanting pitching for now and later, I'd offer up Leake, Lotzkar and Stubbs. If they balked at Lotzkar (and they might), I would swap him for Corcino... Not so hot on the idea of packaging Cingrani. I also don't know if they'd want Stubbs except to replace the depth they'd lose in Fowler. It might be wishful thinking, but by hook or crook, I really don't expect Drew to be on the club this season, though.

Honestly, I think that's a pretty reasonable deal for both teams and would be a good baseball move.

[panzecaz03]

Dexter Fowler is not worth Homer Bailey. The Reds said they don't even want to trade a starting pitcher because we don't have that great of depth in the starting pitcher position, although I wouldn't mind trading Leake and a prospect or 2 (not naming Billy Hamilton) for a solid outfielder.

[drowg14]

That's actually pretty encouraging. I would love Fowler and Mike Minor is much closer in value to a Leake+ package than one centered around Homer.

If the Rox are wanting pitching for now and later, I'd offer up Leake, Lotzkar and Stubbs. If they balked at Lotzkar (and they might), I would swap him for Corcino... Not so hot on the idea of packaging Cingrani. I also don't know if they'd want Stubbs except to replace the depth they'd lose in Fowler. It might be wishful thinking, but by hook or crook, I really don't expect Drew to be on the club this season, though.

Honestly, I think that's a pretty reasonable deal for both teams and would be a good baseball move.

Stubbs isn't a bad fit for Colorado. Can't throw breaking balls in that Denver air all to well.

[dubc47834]

Dexter Fowler is not worth Homer Bailey. The Reds said they don't even want to trade a starting pitcher because we don't have that great of depth in the starting pitcher position, although I wouldn't mind trading Leake and a prospect or 2 (not naming Billy Hamilton) for a solid outfielder.

Not saying it was your opinion...but this time last year many on here were wanting to get rid of Bailey while he had value. OH how a differance a year makes!!!

[HUHUH]

what i don't get is that for years...even decades, the Reds struggled to be competitive due to lack of quality starting pitching and now they finally have it. then, you are willing to trade away one of the Reds better starters in Bailey and then rely more heavily on Mike Leake and an unproven starter in Chapman in 2013? And if you go the Chapman route, invariably there will be someone else, such as Redmond, picking up the innings slack for Chapman. No thanks.....again as I see this "potentially" weakening the rotation. Bailey is only traded if the front office feels like he won't sign long term.

97 wins

Don't.......trade.......pitching.......period (unless you get pitching in return)

[texasdave]

97 wins

Don't.......trade.......pitching.......period (unless you get pitching in return)

Agreed. Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Please.

[Larkin88]

Agreed. Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Please.

In a vacuum, I do philosophically agree that pitching is more important than offense. But how would you improve the weaknesses from the club last season if not by dealing from a position of strength and relative depth?

You've seen the market price on center fielders this year and expressed that you wouldn't meet the terms (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99500) that the market is demanding. At least on Victorino anyway... and you have to figure Bourn (the other premiere FA CF) would cost even more, if not substantially.

You also seemed dismayed (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2781380&postcount=10) after the Denard Span trade that the Reds weren't going to be able to improve their team like the Nationals. But even in that trade, the center piece going to the Twins was pitching. Or are highly touted pitching prospects acceptable bait as long as they aren't on the roster?

Short of a windfall of cash even beyond what we've seen in the last year, I don't see how the Reds are going to improve their leadoff situation without trading away pitching in some capacity.

I do not agree that you can make a blanket effort to "not trade pitching," period. Or if you do insist on that, I don't see how you can be upset when the Reds aren't able to land a good leadoff option for a package of Stubbs/Gregorious/Whoever else isn't a pitcher but isn't named Billy Hamilton. That's the state of our farm system.

[[deleted]]

You also seemed dismayed (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2781380&postcount=10) after the Denard Span trade that the Reds weren't going to be able to improve their team like the Nationals. But even in that trade, the center piece going to the Twins was pitching. Or are highly touted pitching prospects acceptable bait as long as they aren't on the roster?


I'm kinda in the middle on this one, but I think there IS a big difference between Span-for-Cingrani/Corcino and Fowler-for-Bailey.

Pitching wins championships, no doubt. But if you have a surplus and need help elsewhere, don't feel bad about making a trade.

A guy who throws 200 innings of 3.80 ERA ball, though, isn't part of the "surplus." He's part of the guys you horde.

[Larkin88]

;2782947']I'm kinda in the middle on this one, but I think there IS a big difference between Span-for-Cingrani/Corcino and Fowler-for-Bailey.

Pitching wins championships, no doubt. But if you have a surplus and need help elsewhere, don't feel bad about making a trade.

A guy who throws 200 innings of 3.80 ERA ball, though, isn't be part of the "surplus." He's part of the guys you horde.

No doubt there's a difference. And as I've kind of been trying to say in this thread, it's encouraging that it might NOT take Bailey (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2782737&postcount=18) to swing Fowler... but that bit is admittedly subjective in how you evaluate Homer's value against a Mike Minor's.

Again, it's HUHUH's assertion "Don't.......trade.......pitching.......period (unless you get pitching in return)" that texasdave agreed with that I do NOT agree with.

I'm not saying send Bailey to Colorado for Fowler. But I'm also not saying I wouldn't explore Leake (seemingly odd man out) or prospects (Corcino/Cingrani/Lotzkar) to improve the club just because they're pitchers and you can never have too much pitching. I do not think the Reds will be able to improve their leadoff situation without trading pitching... again, in some capacity.

[[deleted]]

In that regard, then, I agree with you. I do think Leake is expendable at the right price, and I do think any significant trade is going to include him and/or some of the Corcino/Cingrani bunch.

[MoneyInTheBank]

In a vacuum, I do philosophically agree that pitching is more important than offense. But how would you improve the weaknesses from the club last season if not by dealing from a position of strength and relative depth?

You've seen the market price on center fielders this year and expressed that you wouldn't meet the terms (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99500) that the market is demanding. At least on Victorino anyway... and you have to figure Bourn (the other premiere FA CF) would cost even more, if not substantially.

You also seemed dismayed (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2781380&postcount=10) after the Denard Span trade that the Reds weren't going to be able to improve their team like the Nationals. But even in that trade, the center piece going to the Twins was pitching. Or are highly touted pitching prospects acceptable bait as long as they aren't on the roster?

Short of a windfall of cash even beyond what we've seen in the last year, I don't see how the Reds are going to improve their leadoff situation without trading away pitching in some capacity.

I do not agree that you can make a blanket effort to "not trade pitching," period. Or if you do insist on that, I don't see how you can be upset when the Reds aren't able to land a good leadoff option for a package of Stubbs/Gregorious/Whoever else isn't a pitcher but isn't named Billy Hamilton. That's the state of our farm system.

Well said

[MoneyInTheBank]

Stubbs isn't a bad fit for Colorado. Can't throw breaking balls in that Denver air all to well.

But they can still pitch right handed there.... :laugh:

[texasdave]

I don't see the Reds having depth in starting pitching.

1) Aroldis Chapman would have to be a question mark. Has he ever been a successful starter? Can he pitch 180 innings? Does he have enough pitches?

2) Cingrani and Corcino were in Double-A last year? Are they ready to make the leap to the Majors? Questionable. Stephenson is even further away.

3) There is a reason why Todd Redmond is 28 and has made all of one start in the majors. Do you really want him taking the ball every fifth day for 15 or so starts in case of injury? I don't.

4) The Reds were extremely fortunate that their starters did not miss a turn in 2012. Is that to be expected again in 2013?

No, if the Reds are going to have holes in their 25-man roster I prefer it to be in the lineup and not on the mound.

[Larkin88]

2) Cingrani and Corcino were in Double-A last year? Are they ready to make the leap to the Majors? Questionable. Stephenson is even further away.



None of that precludes those guys from being very viable trade chips. Just as Alex Meyer was in the Denard Span deal, on his own.

[Hondo]

No to Fowler. Period. Look at his home and away splits...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fowlede01&year=&t=b#hmvis::none

Dexter is a JOKE on the Road... Maybe not JOKE but not worth the asking price and anyone who wants to trade Bailey for Fowler is NUTS.

Just say No.

[MoneyInTheBank]

No to Fowler. Period. Look at his home and away splits...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fowlede01&year=&t=b#hmvis::none

Dexter is a JOKE on the Road... Maybe not JOKE but not worth the asking price and anyone who wants to trade Bailey for Fowler is NUTS.

Just say No.

Insert Upton for Fowler and does your last sentence still apply?

[Hondo]

Insert Upton for Fowler and does your last sentence still apply?

I know you think you're being intelligent but you're not.

It's Coors Field, pal.

NOT Chase Field.

If anything, moving to GAB, Justin Upton's Home numbers will Increase in GAB.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I know you think you're being intelligent but you're not.

It's Coors Field, pal.

NOT Chase Field.

If anything, moving to GAB, Justin Upton's Home numbers will Increase in GAB.

Wow, are you being serious right now? I ask a question and you attack me?

Take a look at Upton's road splits. Just as bad as Fowler's. Then take a look at Fowler's 2011 Home/Road splits. He was better on the road than at home. Take a look at Upton's career #'s at GABP, yes, it's only 15 games, but not good...

I have facts behind my question. I'm not blindly spouting just to be a jerk

[Hondo]

Wow, are you being serious right now? I ask a question and you attack me?

Take a look at Upton's road splits. Just as bad as Fowler's. Then take a look at Fowler's 2011 Home/Road splits. He was better on the road than at home. Take a look at Upton's career #'s at GABP, yes, it's only 15 games, but not good...

I have facts behind my question. I'm not blindly spouting just to be a jerk

I looked at Upton's 2011 and 2012 Home Road Splits, but it's Coors Field that is the difference and if you don't get that... I cannot help you.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I looked at Upton's 2011 and 2012 Home Road Splits, but it's Coors Field that is the difference and if you don't get that... I cannot help you.

Again, I'm not sure why the condescending tone because I have a difference of opinion. According to park factors, Chase is a better hitter's park overall than GABP, so he's not moving from PetCo. I think we can be mature enough to have a polite disagreement on the subject.

[texasdave]

None of that precludes those guys from being very viable trade chips. Just as Alex Meyer was in the Denard Span deal, on his own.

You are right. But my preference is to hold on to pitching. It may be Bronson's last year. Bailey might be gone after 2014. Injuries happen. Maybe the days of Brandon Claussen and Lance Davis and Jimmy Haynes standing on the mound are still too fresh in my mind. Pitching and defense wins. I would like to stay with that formula.

[HUHUH]

I don't see the Reds having depth in starting pitching.

1) Aroldis Chapman would have to be a question mark. Has he ever been a successful starter? Can he pitch 180 innings? Does he have enough pitches?

2) Cingrani and Corcino were in Double-A last year? Are they ready to make the leap to the Majors? Questionable. Stephenson is even further away.

3) There is a reason why Todd Redmond is 28 and has made all of one start in the majors. Do you really want him taking the ball every fifth day for 15 or so starts in case of injury? I don't.

4) The Reds were extremely fortunate that their starters did not miss a turn in 2012. Is that to be expected again in 2013?

No, if the Reds are going to have holes in their 25-man roster I prefer it to be in the lineup and not on the mound.

Well put. And I would add
5) Arroyo is one year removed from bad
6) Latos is young and still not totally reliable
7) Which Homer do we get? Can he stay healthy?
8) Can Leake stay out of jail?

[panzecaz03]

This is what is going to happen.

The Reds won't get Fowler, our leadoff will either be stubbs/cozart, or we will sign a cheap and short term deal to someone who can play unitll Hamilton comes up. In left field we will either have Ludwick back, or Heisey and someone else like Fraizer or someone from the farm. If we do get involved in a trade, I see it being for the back end of the bullpen.

[Alpha Zero]

How about Homer and Stubbs for Fowler and Pomeranz?

I think that evens the trade out a bit. I still like Fowler despite all of the talk about home/road splits. It could be a red flag, but I think it's a little bit overblown. Fowler isn't really quite as good as he was in 2012, but he's still a solid .350-.360 OBP guy who can switch hit. I'll take that at the top of my lineup any day.

[Mitri]

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/how_a_fowler_trade_could_work/12385492?new_post=true

Fowler talks heating up. Looks like the Rox have finally noticed how dire their potential starting 5 looks.

Fowler for Leake, Stubbs, Soto/Lotzkar. I would include both Soto and Lotzkar if that's what it takes. Get it done Walt.

[Alpha Zero]

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/how_a_fowler_trade_could_work/12385492?new_post=true

Fowler talks heating up. Looks like the Rox have finally noticed how dire their potential starting 5 looks.

Fowler for Leake, Stubbs, Soto/Lotzkar. I would include both Soto and Lotzkar if that's what it takes. Get it done Walt.

I think the third player would have to be quite a bit better than Soto/Lotzkar to get this done. And this is coming from a guy who thinks Leake is pretty underrated.

[texasdave]

The Rockies and Reds have engaged in preliminary trade talks about Dexter Fowler, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Cincinnati could trade players from its MLB roster, but right-hander Homer Bailey will likely remain with the Reds, according to Rosenthal.


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rockies-reds-have-discussed-fowler.html#sCuHlrOsqgwHckxQ.99

[Mitri]

I think the third player would have to be quite a bit better than Soto/Lotzkar to get this done. And this is coming from a guy who thinks Leake is pretty underrated.

Then I pass. Again, Walt is in the driver's seat. And I think Leake is viewed as a solid 3/4 by any team lacking high-end SP talent. They can have one of Leake/Cingrani/Corcino, but not two. I'm not parting with Stephenson for Fowler either. Doubt the Rox would need Didi or HRod. So you offer the best B-/C+ guys in the system. Both if need be.

[texasdave]

The Rockies want pitcher Mike Leake from the Reds in a Dexter Fowler trade, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The team is looking at Leake and "at least two more prospects,: according to Renck.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/mlb-rumors/21306490/report-rockies-want-mike-leake-plus-others-for-dexter-fowler

[texasdave]

In the Twitterverse there is some mention of the Braves and Fowler. Delgado or Minor possibly being dangled as trade bait.

[Bonzo]

The Rockies want pitcher Mike Leake from the Reds in a Dexter Fowler trade, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The team is looking at Leake and "at least two more prospects,: according to Renck.

If the Rockies want "at least two more prospects," they better be some C-level prospects. I could see the Reds throwing in Lotzkar and possibly a rookie or A-ball pitcher.

Denard Span is under contract through 2014, with a club option for 2015. Dexter Fowler is arb eligible for three more years, so the return should be pretty comparable between the two. The Nationals gave up their #1 pitching prospect who was in A-ball last year. Considering the Rockies would be getting a middle of the rotation starter in Leake, they can't expect too much more.

[Hondo]

If the Rockies want "at least two more prospects," they better be some C-level prospects. I could see the Reds throwing in Lotzkar and possibly a rookie or A-ball pitcher.

Denard Span is under contract through 2014, with a club option for 2015. Dexter Fowler is arb eligible for three more years, so the return should be pretty comparable between the two. The Nationals gave up their #1 pitching prospect who was in A-ball last year. Considering the Rockies would be getting a middle of the rotation starter in Leake, they can't expect too much more.

BINGO.

In fact, the market demands that it should'nt even take anymore players than Leake... I think the Phillies WAY over paid for Revere... After what the Nationals gave up for Span...

[americanoutlaw1]

BINGO.

In fact, the market demands that it should'nt even take anymore players than Leake... I think the Phillies WAY over paid for Revere... After what the Nationals gave up for Span...

Regardless of our differences on De Aza we agree on this for sure

[holster10]

Clearly, the Rockies have overvalued Fowler. His home/ road splits over his entire career would scare me off if I was a G.M. especially for what they are asking. The guy's career batting average and run production are all substantially lower on the road.