ORG Weekly Discussion #2 - The Starting Rotation

Welcome to the second Old Red Guard weekly discussion thread! This is a themed discussion topic for this forum to help promote discussion and recognize high-quality contributions.

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For our second discussion, the topic will be the state of the starting rotation. Discussion might contain analysis of current and future contributors, rotation trends from this season or previous seasons, proposed solutions to improve the current starting rotation, or any related information.

Starters this season so far:

• Luis Castillo
• Sal Romano
• Tyler Mahle
• Homer Bailey
• Matt Harvey
• Brandon Finnegan
• Anthony DeScalfani
• Cody Reed

Starters last season:

• Scott Feldman
• Tim Adleman
• Homer Bailey
• Sal Romano
• Luis Castillo
• Bronson Arroyo
• Amir Garrett
• Robert Stephenson
• Asher Wojehowski
• Rookie Davis
• Lisalverto Bonilla
• Jackson Stephens
• Tyler Mahle
• Brandon Finnegan
• Deck McGuire
• Cody Reed

Looking forward to seeing the contributions to this topic. Please PM me with any suggestions for future discussion topics.

Did the 2017 rotation set the record for most starts by rookie pitchers? If so, I wonder if the 2018 version is in contention for most starts by second year pitchers.

I imagine we'll see only a couple more starters this year - most starts will come from the guys who've already made starts plus possibly Stephenson, Garrett and/or Reed. DeSclafani, Mahle, Castillo, Romano and Harvey likely carry most of the starts until the deadline at least. I imagine we get to see Bailey try again, too. Maybe there will be a new addition at the deadline, and a couple guys might get starts in September on a cup of coffee basis (Stephens, Nicolino, possibly a first look at Lopez). Nothing like last years anyone and everyone mess. This season is a more concentrated mess - the same results only with just 7 or 8 guys....

Reds should replace Sal Romano with Michael Lorenzen in the rotation, assuming no medical objection.

1. Lorenzen is already stretched out, having pitched four innings on June 1. He could immediately pitch four and likely build up to six innings soon.

2. Lorenzen is an experienced, effective major league pitcher. He won't need all the break in time of the rookies.

3. Starting Lorenzen gives Reds much more opportunity to use his bat. He will hit when he starts. He can pinch hit more because Reds won't be counting on him to relieve in those games.

4. While Lorenzen's valuable in the bullpen, getting 5-6 good innings from starters is paramount right now.

The biggest disappointment in the rotation is we are not seeing forward progress from the starters year to year. I still think Tyler Mahle is going to be a solid starter for this team and I also like Castillo but very inconsistent this year. A couple of weeks ago it looked he was turning it around but has struggled the last two starts.

But outside those two there is currently there is no one in this rotation I would count on to be a contributor to the future. Romano who I thought was at least an average starter has been pretty awful this year and really should be back in Louisville. Bailey I pretty much have lost all hope in. At least I was on board with trying the bullpen but this whole DL and now lets put him back in the rotation just shows the organization has no real plan. Stephenson shows flashes where you think he is finally ready to contribute but then he slides back. Harvey I know is here to be basically flipped at the deadline but the way he is pitching you are not going to get much of anything out of him. DeSclafini it is going to be a struggle to get him back to consistency he has been out so long. He can be solid but you wonder if his health will ever hold up for him to be counted on.

I still think they are wasting a good potential starter in Garrett in the bullpen. The only way it makes sense for him to be in the bullpen would be if he maybe a future closer if Iglesias is traded at the deadline. Outside that I agree with KC that Lorenzen is another that should be given a chance to start. The thing is this far into a rebuild we should be seeing some progress in building a rotation and this rotation is still a mess with not much hope for improvement in the near future.

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Originally Posted by Joeyjection19

Did the 2017 rotation set the record for most starts by rookie pitchers? If so, I wonder if the 2018 version is in contention for most starts by second year pitchers.

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Starts by Reds rookie pitchers (best as I can figure it):

2017 - 85
2016 - 54
2015 - 110

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Originally Posted by M2

Starts by Reds rookie pitchers (best as I can figure it):

2017 - 85
2016 - 54
2015 - 110

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Shouldn't all those freshmen in 2015 be seniors now?

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Reds should replace Sal Romano with Michael Lorenzen in the rotation, assuming no medical objection.

1. Lorenzen is already stretched out, having pitched four innings on June 1. He could immediately pitch four and likely build up to six innings soon.

2. Lorenzen is an experienced, effective major league pitcher. He won't need all the break in time of the rookies.

3. Starting Lorenzen gives Reds much more opportunity to use his bat. He will hit when he starts. He can pinch hit more because Reds won't be counting on him to relieve in those games.

4. While Lorenzen's valuable in the bullpen, getting 5-6 good innings from starters is paramount right now.

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I'm for this. I don't really like Lorenzen as a starter, but I still think Romano has a chance and with every negative start, the damage being done to him reduces those chances. He needs to go down, re-establish his place in line and work on his change-up, Until he can use it more, he's going to struggle. A move like this would be more about Romano than Lorenzen.

Since World War II, only the 1987-1989 Baltimore Orioles, the 2007-2009 Washington Nationals, the 2007-2010 Baltimore Orioles, and the 2015-2017 Cincinnati Reds recorded three straight seasons of at least 50 starts by rookie pitchers.

Reds Rookie Starters in 2017
Starts - Player
16 - Sal Romano
15 - Luis Castillo
14 - Amir Garett
11 - Robert Stephenson
8 - Asher Wojciechowski
6 - Rookie Davis
4 - Tyler Mahle
4 - Jackson Stephens
4 - Lisalverto Bonilla
2 - Deck McGuire
84 - TOTAL

Reds Rookie Starters in 2016
Starts - Player
14 - John Lamb
13 - Tim Adleman
10 - Cody Reed
8 - Robert Stephenson
5 - Jon Moscot
5 - Daniel Wright
2 - Josh Smith
2 - Tim Melville
56 - TOTAL

Reds Rookie Starters in 2015
Starts - Player
31 - Anthony DeSclafani
21 - Michael Lorenzen
16 - Raisel Iglesias
12 - Keyvius Sampson
10 - John Lamb
7 - Josh Smith
6 - David Holmberg
4 - Brandon Finnegan
3 - Jon Moscot
110 - TOTAL

---The 2015 Cincinnati Reds finished the season by starting rookie pitchers in 110 games, third most in history behind the 1998 Florida Marlins and the 2009 Oakland Athletics.

- - - Updated - - -

The Reds don't have a lot to show for that!

Disco is the only rookie from 2015 currently in the rotation. None of the 2016 rookies are there. The story of the teens Reds has become an inability to get pitchers to stick.

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Originally Posted by Joeyjection19

Did the 2017 rotation set the record for most starts by rookie pitchers? If so, I wonder if the 2018 version is in contention for most starts by second year pitchers.

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Fangraphs has been tracking this with the Reds for the past couple of seasons:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cong...done-it-again/

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In 2015, the Reds finally commenced their transition from contender to rebuilder. During that season, the club began handing playing time to a number of young players, with rookie pitchers accounting for more than two-thirds of the team’s starts. Last season, they followed up that effort with another round of rookie pitchers — a group which, in this case, accounted for one-third of Cincinnati’s starts. As I noted at the beginning of the season, the Reds became just one of a handful of clubs in history to allocate at least half of their starts to rookies in one year and then to follow up that effort by starting rookies in another 50 games the next season.

It’s my duty to inform you that the Reds are at it again — and this time, they’ve left all the other franchises in the dust.

https://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-c...0.50.30-AM.png


https://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-c...1.18.35-AM.png

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I looked at three-year periods, first going back to 1974, to see if any team had ever done what the Reds are doing right now. In the context of recent history, the answer is no.

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I only went back to 1974 initially, because that’s the first year for which we have split numbers for innings and WAR for rookies and starters. We can go back 100 years, though, and not see as many rookie starters over a three-year period as the Reds have given us this year.

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The rookie starter thing is essentially what happens when you trade all your starters (except one, who goes down with a severe injury), without having a plan for how you're going to keep from having to rely too much on rookies. Jason Marquis and Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo were nice, but they weren't plans. They were desperation.

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

The rookie starter thing is essentially what happens when you trade all your starters (except one, who goes down with a severe injury), without having a plan for how you're going to keep from having to rely too much on rookies. Jason Marquis and Scott Feldman and Bronson Arroyo were nice, but they weren't plans. They were desperation.

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As M2 pointed out, it is more an issue with not being able to get any of the young starters to stick. When thrown against the wall, too many of the Reds young pitchers bounced. The Rockies led the league in starts by rookie pitchers in 2017, they are way down that list in 2018 and hovering around .500. The Reds rebuild has been a disaster especially from a pitching perspective, and it has less to do with not adding veteran pitchers than it has to do with not developing the arms they had. Perhaps adding veterans would have allowed them to be more patient with the young pitchers, but I'm not convinced that any amount of time would have been sufficient. I just think they don't have a clue how to develop a young starting pitcher.

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Originally Posted by mth123

I'm for this. I don't really like Lorenzen as a starter, but I still think Romano has a chance and with every negative start, the damage being done to him reduces those chances. He needs to go down, re-establish his place in line and work on his change-up, Until he can use it more, he's going to struggle. A move like this would be more about Romano than Lorenzen.

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Is Lorenzen throwing 3 pitches? I haven't watched enough. Was hoping Finnegan or Stephenson would have been showing some consistency by now. Neither of them are ready. So I guess KC is right, Lorenzen would be the best option right now.

As of June 11 Reds starters have only 1 guy with an ERA below 5 (Mahle). And the leader in WHIP is Matt Harvey at 1.25! Everyone else is walking way too many. What a disappointing first half.
I still believe the 2nd half will be better as 2 or 3 of these guys improve (mainly Castillo, Mahle and Finnegan when he gets it back together)