Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

Per Mark Sheldon's Blog:

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Generally speaking, you only use three starters in the first round. We won’t try to guess who’s not [in] but that’s a pretty good ace in the hole if you’ve got a guy getting hammered. You usually don’t let guys stick around to get hammered. It’s not like a regular season game.”
Although Baker did not say specifically, it would appear that Homer Bailey is that ace-in-the-hole.
“That is always the toughest part – who do you leave off?” Baker said. “I’ve seen guys get angry. I remember one time with Lasorda, there were a couple of guys upset with him.”

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Interesting. I didn't think they'd go that route this year with only one day off in the series.

Latos, Bailey, Cueto. I'm good with that though I would be a bit nervous with Bailey in a game 5 in Cincy and I have no idea how this would play with the current rotation timing. My thought is that Latos Bailey would be great combo in SF and is not meant as a reflection on Cueto other than he would be the best of the lot at home.

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Originally Posted by klw

Latos, Bailey, Cueto. I'm good with that though I would be a bit nervous with Bailey in a game 5 in Cincy and I have no idea how this would play with the current rotation timing. My thought is that Latos Bailey would be great combo in SF and is not meant as a reflection on Cueto other than he would be the best of the lot at home.

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I think the 'hint' was a rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, and then Latos.

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Originally Posted by mbgrayson

I think the 'hint' was a rotation of Cueto, Arroyo, and then Latos.

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Yeah I got that but would prefer mine.

I guess Homer better just pitch another no-hitter.

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

I think he's suggesting that he will only need three pitchers in the first round. ;)

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

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It makes perfect sense if they don't believe Latos is capable of pitching effectively on 3 days rest.

Arroyo has at least pitched eight times in his career on 3 days rest (with a 3.19 ERA). Latos has never done it.

Doing it this way means that Latos would also be available to pitch game one of the LCS if the Reds get through the first series.

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Originally Posted by Nathan

I think he's suggesting that he will only need three pitchers in the first round. ;)

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Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Seems like the plan here isn't a good one.

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

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I wonder if they are trying to line it up for Rd 2 to get Latos in Game 1. Just a shot in the dark.

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Seems like the plan here isn't a good one.

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At this point, it is kind of difficult to challenge the FO's logic when it comes to things like this.

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Originally Posted by Brutus

It makes perfect sense if they don't believe Latos is capable of pitching effectively on 3 days rest.

Arroyo has at least pitched eight times in his career on 3 days rest (with a 3.19 ERA). Latos has never done it.

Doing it this way means that Latos would also be available to pitch game one of the LCS if the Reds get through the first series.

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8 random games does nothing for me. I would rather have Homer Bailey on full rest than anyone else on short rest. Of course, the idea of anyone pitching on short rest has always confused me.

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

8 random games does nothing for me. I would rather have Homer Bailey on full rest than anyone else on short rest. Of course, the idea of anyone pitching on short rest has always confused me.

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I'd rather have Bronson Arroyo pitching a second game in Cincinnati than Homer Bailey. Bailey has a career 5.15 ERA in Cincinnati and almost exactly the same this year. I want no part of Bailey pitching in GABP in the playoffs at this point.

In that article he just says they don't know if they would use a 4th starter in the first round. Looking at the schedule this year I would be shocked if they don't use a 4th starter.