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I do think Bruce has suffered by injury and is now trying to avoid them.
His offensive numbers are excellent this year. Reds should get a good prospect back.
But Jay is almost certainly going to be traded. The outfield for awhile will be Duvall, Hamilton, Winker. With others coming up behind them.
Agree, but I'd do it anyway to see if Duvall can handle right. Something tells me Winker won't be able to. Duvall was a 3B, his arm should be good enough as long as he gets to the ball quickly and is pretty sure handed. I'd like to find out. IMO, seeing if he can be a middle of the order option down the road (which includes finding out if both he and Winker will have a place to play on the same field) is more important than all the pitching plans people are worried about. I think the Reds have enough depth that the pitching will work out one way or another as long as they don't screw them up with overwork or something. The middle of the order is a bigger question IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Jay Bruce's trade value is fully restored, IMO. Either demand a high return or hang on to him and maybe look into a 3-year extension.
Sir Charles I thought about his eyesight too. He may need glasses.
He has a reasonable option next year for a 25 HR type. That leverage should mean a real good prospect should come back. Not sure about the extension, but I sure wouldn't give him away. They can always exercise the option and try again to deal him in the off-season or next deadline. A team getting him gets the rest of this year, next year at a reasonable price and then the chance to think about a QO the following year (if that rule is still around). If he goes south, they have a cheap escape route. Best of both worlds that limits the risk of acquiring him.Quote:
Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
I agree. He's actually showing his best offensive peripherals at the plate since he came up. His fielding is obviously not at its best but there could be other factors there. If he gets dealt he deserves a good return, otherwise I would look at an extension. .315+ OBP, 30+ HR guys aren't falling from trees. To be clear his 135 wRC+ right now ranks him 20th among all outfielders, and the underlying numbers definitely support that (there's nothing that stands out as unsustainable).Quote:
Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
I'd be surprised if the Reds offer Bruce an extension, or pick up his option. Too much money. I think the reality is that they will trade him at the deadline.
If they only get crummy offers they can reject the option and (as I understand) still go the Qualifying Offer/Draft Pick route.
This off-season the Reds felt they had to trade some guys to cut payroll. They have been widely panned for trading Frazier and Chapman. But it seems smart that they held back on Bruce and hopefully will convert him to a good prospect in any trade.
The time to deal is now, before the inevitable month-long slump begins.
Must add that as I see all these good players depart, it's too bad that the Reds couldn't afford to keep them. IMO it's too bad they didn't attack their playoff runs with more urgency and really, really go for it. And it's also too bad that baseball's system effectively means that small market clubs like the Reds will have to be broken up after awhile.
With a little luck, health, money, this could have been a terrific, deep playoff club. Too bad.
Nowadays I think a slash line of .280/.322/.591 is well worth 12.5 MM or a damn good value in a trade return..
If they trade Bruce they better get something valuable in return. JMHO
I know this much, I'm setting a high price for Bruce if I'm the Reds. If teams wanted Bruce without giving up anything of real note for him, they had their chance and missed out. If someone like Indians want him, the conversation would start with Clint Frazier/Bradley Zimmer. I don't know where the Reds play him, or if he's a guy Cleveland wants to keep, but Jose Ramirez is pretty interesting as well.
I love, it, everyone says over the offseason that we need to hope Bruce hits to start the season so we might be able to deal him for something decent at the deadline. Then, when against all odds Bruce does get off to a decent start they like,"hey, maybe we should hold onto him and even pick up his option."
No. Just no.
Is there a chance he could continue hitting? Yes, but not a good enough chance you bet $20M on it. Just no.
Where are you coming up with the $20M figure?
Bruce is making 12.5 MM this year. If they pick up his option he'll make 13MM in 2017.
I think there will be considerable interest in Bruce. Hunter Pence is out for at least 2 months; the Red Sox have several injured outfielders; several other teams dealing with OF injuries. Carl Crawford is available now, as the LAD have DFA'd him. He's only owed $35 millon on the rest of the contract. Must be nice to throw away money like that.
My guess is that he means a year-and-a-half salary.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Madden