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The Reds would have to throw Robert Stephenson or Garrett into the discussion to the Indians (for example) for Frazier or Zimmer to jot get laughed off the phone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman
Bruce is having a great year at the plate so far, he's nightmare fuel in the field and is pretty expensive. He will get a 100-150 prospect at best unless the Reds lose their minds and throw in a top pitching prospect.
I don't know if Bruce could return a Top 100 guy by himself. Depends, IMO, on the team that needs him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
I could see Christian Arroyo (SFG SS) or Mark Appel (HOU P) among interested teams as possible targets.
But so far, among the teams that need a LH OF (Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago AL, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles AL), there isn't much in the Top 100 and what's there isn't available. The Reds need a spate of OF injuries among contenders who have deep farms and money.
You're not talking about a player who has never produced; you're talking about a player who has had trouble with consistency. There's a difference in suddenly becoming a better player and figuring out how to be at your best more often. The second is much more likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by PuffyPig
It suddenly clicked? I mean, realistically speaking he was a 120 wRC+ guy before he got injured, and he was just going into his prime. If not for that injury he might have been a 130+ wRC+ guy sooner. Maturity and approach are probably playing a big factor. The talent has always been there.
They aren't giving up Frazier and Zimmer, but it's not because they don't think Bruce isn't worth it, but because the Indians are incredibly conservative with their prospects and never go "all in" at the expense of cost-controlled, talented players.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
It doesn't mean it's stupid to ask or to insist you want that caliber of player from them or other teams.
Who said top 50? I said top 100, but perhaps you're referring to someone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Appel is now in the Phillies' organization. I doubt they will be buyers at the deadline, unless they are crazy enough to buy into their hot start. They've already cooled off and will continue to do so IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
Plus, Appel is putting up bad numbers once again this year: 4.46 WHIP, 1.57 WHIP, 34 K, 20 BB in 38.1 IP at the AAA level. That guy has always been all sizzle and no steak. I would want someone better than Appel for Jay Bruce, especially since our top prospects are pitchers. We need a young bat in return for Jay. A top 100 MLB prospect bat.
If Bruce is hitting this well in July, his contract is very attractive.
The buying team has the choice -- use him as a rental or exercise a 1 year option at $13MM. That seems highly attractive to me.
Often felt the Reds had to trade a couple of salaries last off-season, they did that, now there's no desperation. With Bruce they can keep him one more year if necessary. So they should insist on at least one serious, meaningful prospect in the deal.
I mean, if the guy is a top 60 prospect and the Reds like him, that's fine too, the number isn't the main thing, but a meaningful prospect who will be highly rated on the Reds' list.
Doesn't have to be a hitter, doesn't have to play a particular position. But has to be a serious guy.
The guy the Reds should try to pair with Bruce is Straily. He's having a great season too for a team that is going nowhere and could be useful to round out the rotation for a team in contention.
The Giants (your Giants) are a team that looks like they could use both an OFer and a starter. I don't see anything that blows me away in their system, but there are some interesting guys like Christian Arroyo, Phil Bickford, Chris Shaw, and Andrew Suarez.Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongVerb
They're absolutely unafraid to move prospects for needs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
And look at how badly it's turned out.
Nightmare fuel?Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
I don't care what WAR and defensive metrics say about Jay's defense. I watch him play and know he's not that bad. How on earth does a guy go from one of the better defensive RFs in baseball to a guy who is apparently having one of the worst defensive seasons in decades?
Oh, and it's his age 29 season, too. The premise is simply ludicrous. The guy is 27th in all of baseball in OPS and he just recently emerged from being a negative WAR player. He's 1.5 to 2.5 WAR lower than most of his offensive peers.
He has 3 errors and the Fielding % isn't great, but the amount of ground Hamilton covers skews everything. Bruce is on pace to have far fewer chances for putouts than he's had throughout his career.
Shaw would be a great target if you were sure the NL was adding the DH or you had a deal in place for Votto, but can't see him playing the OF.
I'd do Bruce and Stephenson for Frazier or Zimmer and maybe a lower level (A+ or Full Season A) high-ceiling prospect, if that's what it took. I'd rather target Naquin in a deal for Bruce though and just hold onto BobSteve.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Jay Bruce for Lucius Fox could be interesting for both sides, assuming the Reds believed he could stick st SS. I'd even add Strailey if they added Bickford.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
If the Reds pulled that off, they should target nothing but OF going forward, both in trade returns for Cozart/Bailey and in next year's draft.
I was. It's not all about you, CHUCKAY!Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
Agreed. UZR is p. much crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by OGB
I'm not saying he's a GGer out there right now, but he's not "so bad it cancels out his hitting" level either.
I said elsewhere, going by the eye test, Jay still seems to have the physical tools. He's got his legs back under him, he's looked a lot more mobile around the base paths (backed up by his high triples count). He still covers a lot of ground. He still has a hell of an arm.
The worst thing about Bruce's defense at this point is that he seems to be playing tentative out there like he's trying to avoid reinjuring himself, and I think the longer he plays out there at 100% which he seems to be at now, the more he'll get over that. For now, that means not as many dives for balls he would've laid out for in the past, and at times he has appeared to play straight up afraid of the wall, where vintage Jay used to use his range to get out to the warning track and rob doubles and HRs fairly consistently.
But he DOES still have the range, the arm, all the physical tools. Call it a defensive slump at worst. But he's no Adam Dunn out there, no matter what UZR/DRS say.
I'd be extremely happy if the Reds could come away by the deadline with Tyler Naquin from the Indians and Gary Sanchez from the Yanks. I know though that they'd be lucky to land just one. Nyquin could give them an option in CF with Billy while having enough bat to play a corner. Sanchez would give you an offensive catcher to pair with Barnhart. I'd have him work a little at 1B in case Joey needs a day off or there is an injury. I might see if he could handle a little left too (I'd move Duvall to RF if Bruce is dealt).
I still feel like all this speculation about Jay to the Tribe could all be for naught; was it ever cleared up whether they are on his no-trade list?
Jesse Winker was pulled after 1 at bat today in AAA. Rumors he is not with the team and he declined to comment on what was going on.
Bruce about to be traded and Winker up?
Zach Buchanan @ZachENQ 5h5 hours agoQuote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Been told Winker was just sore. Stand down, call-up welcoming party.
Sore or hungover?
#22 year old gonna 22 year old
Baseball players get sore. Young or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
But awesome speculation.
I still think the Giants are the team to deal with, they have the pitching to succeed just need to acquire some offense as Pence and Pagan are wounded. They will pull the trigger if need be, but their system is relatively weak, so with that in mind I think this could work:
Giants get: Jay Bruce and 1million cash(to pay for buyout)
Reds get: Tyler Beede RHP (AA) 23yr old #2 prospect
Jalen Miller SS (A) 19yr old #12 prospect
Austin Slater 2B (AAA) 23yr old #20 prospect
none of them are top 100 prospects but they are all B/C+ guys, this gives the Reds solid middle infield depth for future moves or 2018!
If I’m trading Bruce, I need at least one impact prospect coming back. Reds have enough quantity prospects, they need quality
Lighten up, Francis.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
Damnit, ordered the cake for Winker and everything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Popular take, I see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rojo
They keep their Grade A guys, as they should.
I'm totally blind on this one so answer this.
Who are the top 3 best prospects/most productive (young) guys the Giants have traded away in the past 6 years? Duvall is in the convo I bet.
Or is it they are unafraid to move, umm let's say "poor", prospects?
Keep him.
None of these guys people are mentioning are anything.
I think I just saw somewhere that the Giants have the most homegrown talent on their roster of any MLB team. That might need to be fact-checked, but I want to say that's accurate. Which means they know which of their guys to keep and which to deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by kaldaniels
Good thing the Reds didn't see Jay Bruce as nothing when he was a prospect and held on to him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990
I always get a kick out of this mindset that prospects are worthless because they have never done it at the major league level. Jay Bruce was a prospect. Joey Votto was a prospect. Miguel Cabrera was a prospect. And so on and so forth.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...tbegins2-2.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Benihana
I always get a kick out of the mindset that players older than 28 are past it and should be traded in for completely unproven prospects just because they cost money.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
I mean, might as well get rid of the proven commodity and take a gamble on guys that don't even have his kind of upside, right?
http://boingboing.net/filesroot/logan.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
Pick any 10 HoF hitters not suspected of juicing. Go to their B-R page and see how many times they led the league in whatever category before and after age 30. I'll give you a hint: it's a huge drop off after 30. And that's HoF players. Non-HoF players that had that kind of success after age 30 are even fewer and farther between.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
So no, it's not unreasonable to think that trading players after their age 28 or 29 seasons is a good thing. And you never, ever want to sign a player for his age 30+ years for the production he gave you in his 20s. Not saying they can't be productive, just don't pay them like the league leaders they were 5 years previous.
There is numerous problems with keeping Bruce beyond this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by '69 & Vine
1. Winker and Duvall are candidates for full time jobs.. in the future, maybe Ervin and others. Bruce would tie down an OF spot and not be part of the future.
2. It's questionable whether Bruce can play good defense over the next 3-4 years.. And questionable whether he would continue to hit.
3. If he had a knee injury that impacted him for 2 years (one theory), too risky it might flare up again, as early as the second half of this year (as last year)
4. A lot of risk for minimal gain.
5. Bruce's salary could be used to reinforce the bullpen/pitching staf. Supposedly they only had 2 million to spend this season on adding pitching, and it went to Simon..
6. Bruce is hitting well this year, but the Reds were only projected to draw 1.8 million fans this year, that's a pretty big dropoff from last year.. the Reds stink. A few stars on a 90-100 loss team are not going to sell tickets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benihana
I was totally going to post something about Batman. I feel robbed.Quote:
Originally Posted by CySeymour
Great. Has nothing to do with what I was talking about, but, great!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon
Coincidentally, the PED erea lines up with better legal supplements, year round training, and healthier lifestyles. So it's hard to say a player is DOOMED after age 28. Ben Zobrist is 35. CoCo Crisp is approaching infinity. Ortiz has never been suspended, and if he did use PED's it was years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongVerb
30 isn't a death sentence.
Amphetamines certainly helped sustain players later in their careers. Also, I wasn't suggesting that players couldn't be productive in their 30s. Just that you're not going to see the type of production from a player in his 30s that they gave in their 20s, and teams often pay them like they will. It's actually a market inefficiency for big market clubs as that's where these players tend to wind up.Quote:
Originally Posted by TRF