Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

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Originally Posted by WildcatFan

The Athletic published its top 40 free agent list with contract predictions and best team fits: https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023...ents-mlb-list/

For the Reds, they have:

7. Sonny Gray, 3/$72m
15. Lucas Giolito, 4/$70m
17. Michael Wacha, 3/$36m
18. Seth Lugo, 2/$26m
32. Mike Clevinger, 2/$22m
36. Aroldis Chapman, 1/$12m

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Those numbers seem like overpays for Giolito, Wacha, and Chapman to me. Giolito is a fly ball pitcher who gave up 41 HR last year hard pass on that. Wacha has been a 120-130 inning guy 3 years in a row. Chapman still throws hard, but has little idea where it's going, and all his post season outings were an adventure. I could see a 6 or 7 million deal for Chapman making sense.

A front loaded deal for Sonny makes sense, but IDK if the Reds would go for 20+ million AAV on Gray when they wouldn't pay him 12 a few years ago. I like Eduardo Rodriguez as a target if they aren't going to be in on Nola or Montgomery. The safe play is to sign a few short term RP and if things go sideways you can always flip those guys at the deadline. I'd like to see a decent power bat brought in.

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Originally Posted by JCM11

Those numbers seem like overpays for Giolito, Wacha, and Chapman to me. Giolito is a fly ball pitcher who gave up 41 HR last year hard pass on that. Wacha has been a 120-130 inning guy 3 years in a row. Chapman still throws hard, but has little idea where it's going, and all his post season outings were an adventure. I could see a 6 or 7 million deal for Chapman making sense.

A front loaded deal for Sonny makes sense, but IDK if the Reds would go for 20+ million AAV on Gray when they wouldn't pay him 12 a few years ago. I like Eduardo Rodriguez as a target if they aren't going to be in on Nola or Montgomery. The safe play is to sign a few short term RP and if things go sideways you can always flip those guys at the deadline. I'd like to see a decent power bat brought in.

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They're all relatively short deals though. Even if the Reds agreed to those terms with all six players listed they would still enter 2024 with a lower team payroll than a few seasons ago, and that's before adjusting for inflation.

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

Money isn't the only motivating factor for any human being, though.

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I agree. It’s not about the money, but the number of years that will come into play. The Reds can and should offer Gray 3 years @ $75 million. But I can guarantee that he will get an offer of 4 years @ $95-100 million or even 5 years @ $120-125 million from someone. The Reds would be utter buffoons to offer more than three years and Gray would be a fool to turn down a four or five year deal.

If said it before I would go after Seth Lugo and a couple of solid bullpen arms and maybe an Of bat with pop for a platoon role

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Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!

You realize Miley wasn’t on the reds in 22, right?

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Yes. I'm just saying he would have been nice to have around. Especially since he barely cost anything to keep the previous year.

Rotation was basically missing someone like him and that ended up being the difference this past year.

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Originally Posted by schroomytunes

If said it before I would go after Seth Lugo and a couple of solid bullpen arms and maybe an Of bat with pop for a platoon role

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Why Lugo? He's 34 and pitched 80 more innings in 2023 than he did the previous season (2023 is the most innings pitched in a year in his life).

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

Money isn't the only motivating factor for any human being, though.

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You're right- the chance to play on a contending club with a lot of exciting young players would help too.

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Originally Posted by REDREAD

And he also said the Reds were "definitely buyers" at the deadline last year, and all we got was Moll.
He's going to have to show me something this winter before I start getting excited about all the payflex he has.

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Last Winter was a disaster on the Free Agent front. It was an abuse of goodwill of the Tri-County taxpayers.

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Originally Posted by Kingspoint

Last Winter was a disaster on the Free Agent front. It was an abuse of goodwill of the Tri-County taxpayers.

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Well, I expect more of the same. One thing the current junta doesn't understand is that the Reds actually gave up loved players when they made trades in the 70's. Lee May and Tommy Helms were well liked and well regarded players - in fact Lee May had a monster year in 1971 and continued to produce for years - but the Reds gave him up to get Morgan, Billingham, Geronimo etc... You have to actually trade your assets to get assets -- John Franco was a great relief pitcher but you had to trade him to get Randy Myers. Dave Parker should have been the 1985 MVP (it was a foreshadowing of the 2017 Votto ripoff), but you gave him up to get Jose Rijo. See where I'm going here - you don't just kick tires, you pull the trigger. And they don't always work (see KG Jr., Woody Fryman, Frank Robinson) but if you don't do it, you have lost decades. You may have short runs (seasons 2010-13, June-August 2023) but you don't have long term success. Do I want India traded? No, but I also don't want to see a team 3 games back in September of 2024 bringing up someone from AA to start because they were too stupid to plan on having adequate starting pitching when they were building the team in November of 23. Rant over.

Ben Lively is officially a free agent.

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Charlie Goldsmith
@CharlieG__

According to the minor league transactions log, several former Reds have elected free agency

-Ben Lively
-Ricky Karcher
-Eduardo Salazar
-Chuckie Robinson
-Jason Vosler

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Nobody to be concerned about. I guess Lively could work as more depth, but that's all.

We'll always have that one weird Karcher game and the few days where Vosler hit well.

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Originally Posted by WildcatFan

The Athletic published its top 40 free agent list with contract predictions and best team fits: https://theathletic.com/5029170/2023...ents-mlb-list/

For the Reds, they have:

7. Sonny Gray, 3/$72m
15. Lucas Giolito, 4/$70m
17. Michael Wacha, 3/$36m
18. Seth Lugo, 2/$26m
32. Mike Clevinger, 2/$22m
36. Aroldis Chapman, 1/$12m

Weird that they didn't see a single corner outfielder fitting in Cincinnati.

Of those options at the predicted contracts, I'd jump on Gray, Wacha, and Chapman in a heartbeat.

They also predict Lourdes Gurriel Jr. getting 4/$56m. That seems very reasonable.

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of similar note, MLB Trade Rumors guys prognosticated the Reds being in on Eduardo Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Reynoldo Lopez, and Hector Neris.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...edictions.html

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Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi

Jonathan India is a popular name among execs at the @MLB GM Meetings. Multiple teams have inquired to the Reds about his availability.

Reds will listen to offers due to their position-player depth, but they value India highly and aren't motivated to move him.

@MLBNetwork

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Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking

Well, I expect more of the same. One thing the current junta doesn't understand is that the Reds actually gave up loved players when they made trades in the 70's. Lee May and Tommy Helms were well liked and well regarded players - in fact Lee May had a monster year in 1971 and continued to produce for years - but the Reds gave him up to get Morgan, Billingham, Geronimo etc... You have to actually trade your assets to get assets -- John Franco was a great relief pitcher but you had to trade him to get Randy Myers. Dave Parker should have been the 1985 MVP (it was a foreshadowing of the 2017 Votto ripoff), but you gave him up to get Jose Rijo. See where I'm going here - you don't just kick tires, you pull the trigger. And they don't always work (see KG Jr., Woody Fryman, Frank Robinson) but if you don't do it, you have lost decades. You may have short runs (seasons 2010-13, June-August 2023) but you don't have long term success. Do I want India traded? No, but I also don't want to see a team 3 games back in September of 2024 bringing up someone from AA to start because they were too stupid to plan on having adequate starting pitching when they were building the team in November of 23. Rant over.

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This is an understatement. Lee May, especially, was extremely popular and fans were outraged when this trade was made. I recall newspaper stories reporting on how upset the fans were. If only there had been sports talk radio in those days....As an 8 year old boy it was my first time being aware of an unpopular move by a sports team. I didn't know enough to really have an opinion; I just recall wondering who all those guys from Houston were. :laugh:

The Reds have several options they can go with on offense with 3 guys who can play SS on the IF. They can keep the status quo and go into next year with the current group, they can trade India and sign a utility IF to back up the kids, they can trade India, move Steer into the IF utility man role, and sign a corner OF. They could also trade one of the IF kids for a big SP prize and keep India as the everyday second baseman. All of these options are plausible IMO. I would lean towards moving India and bringing in a veteran utility IF. Of course this assumes they can actually get a good piece for India.