Paul Daugherty says Reds are seriously pursuing Joe Blanton

Kevin Mench better be on his way to GABP if this is even considered.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Kevin Mench better be on his way to GABP if this is even considered.

---

On his way to GABP to do what, exactly?

Lawn care, cleaning toilets, you know the valuable stuff that Juan Castro does.

Cotton candy salesman, we need a guy who doesn't block the action when selling

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by KronoRed

Cotton candy salesman, we need a guy who doesn't block the action when selling

---

Mench's massive head is guaranteed to block the action.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Yep. While I wouldn't support xFIP as being the gold standard among defense-independent metrics, I've been warming a bit more to it recently because of the attempt to equalize HR/FB rates.

That being said, I'm still trying to figure out why some folks are attempting to position that Blanton's HR rates would explode should he leave Oaktown and move to the GAB.

Here are Blanton's 3-year HR/9 splits with Oakland (2005-2007):

Home: 0.77 HR/9 IP
Away: 0.84 HR/9 IP

And that's with the DH in play. The difference for Home vs. Road splits over 200 IP is less than two Home Runs. It's not like Blanton somehow got clobbered for longballs galore outside of McAfee.

It is true that Blanton's HR per Fly Ball tendencies were lower than expected over the previous two seasons, of course. Yet, would that somehow change in a dramatic fashion due to the GAB? Let's take a look at the Reds' HR/FB percentages (> 125 IP):

2007

Harang: 10.6%
Arroyo: 10.7%
Belisle: 12.8%
Lohse: 9.3%

2006:

Harang: 11.7%
Arroyo: 11.5%
Milton: 11.9%

What we're seeing there are rates that are generally sitting around the norm. In fact, the amalgam of those pitchers each season are within 1% of the norm, both above and below. Now let's assume that Blanton's HR/FB rates move to the norm and that he plays in the GAB. Obviously, it's a bit more complex than just using park factors to adjust. Oh, and I do include Infield Flies as Fly Balls. I really don't see any reason not to. They're balls hit in the air, but just less far. Here are the last couple of seasons for GB vs. FB rates:

2007:

Harang: 40.30% GB/41.80% FB
Arroyo: 35.30% GB/43.80% FB
Belisle: 41.80% GB/36.20% FB
Lohse: 35.50% GB/ 42.90% FB
Blanton: 46.90% GB/32.50% FB

2006:

Harang: 38.20% GB/39.60% FB
Arroyo: 38.50% GB/40.60% FB
Milton: 30.80% GB/39.60% FB
Blanton: 43.10% GB/37.10% FB

I guess I can see where folks might intuitively think that the GAB might dramatically impact Blanton's HR rate. Of course, that's more a commentary on the ballpark than it is about the quality of the pitcher we're discussing. But in the end, even a regression (or ascension) to the mean for Blanton's HR per FB rate might mean less for a pitcher of Blanton's ilk than it would be for the Reds' pitchers noted if they had put up their rates in a HR-suppressing park.

K rate is certainly important, but of the pitchers noted above we need to understand that the difference between Arroyo's 6.03 K/9 splits over the last three years and Blanton's K/9 (5.22) over 200 Innings is about 18 balls either in or out of play. If Blanton's Fly Ball rate in 2008 is near his 2006-2007 average, we're looking at about six more Fly Balls and, equalizing for a MLB average HR/FB rate, we've got exactly one additional Home Run.

Is it possible that we'd see more than one additional HR versus 2007 for Blanton in the GAB? Sure, because the game is a bit random. But for this particular pitcher, the defense backing him is likely more important than just a shift to a higher-HR ballpark.

While defense is a major consideration here, I'd certainly welcome a pitcher who profiles like Blanton. 27 years old. Has a history of low BB and low HR rates and both have improved in unison over the past couple of seasons. He certainly hasn't matched his minor league K rates thusfar, but he throws a "heavy" ball and has done so not only in his home park.

Do I trade Votto for someone who projects 200 MLB-average Innings over the next three years? Absolutely. Do I trade Votto, a B prospect, and a C prospect or two for that? Again, absolutely.

The goal here isn't to hold onto as many cool prospects as possible. The goal is to win. And considering how many "top" prospects the Reds have near the MLB level, they have a perfect opportunity to cash in while also staggering MLB service time to produce a larger potential window.

---

Ya. I've argued a couple of times that GABP probably isn't going to hurt Blanton in a way many are assuming. He'll surely be dinged if for no other reason than the disparities in foul territory between the two parks in question and of course he'd be coming to a team that isnt' nearly as good defensively, but I think it's hyperbole to suggest he'll be emasculated into a tee by GABP.

I also agree that plus/plus command of major league quality stuff is a weapon unto itself (hi five to Cueto).

In the end though, for me Blanton is more workhorse than savior because while he's got a great curve, his stuff is ultimately hittable. This is just the kind of guy that I think GMs can overvalue so while I don't think any of the supposition that'll soon masquerade as a rumor (i.e. the noise coming from Fay about Bailey/Cueto/Votto) has any legs, I do worry about a possible overpay.

Concerning FIP as a defensive independent metric, it usually correlates to DIPs ERA at .90 or better depending upon the year and FIP is ALOT easier on my spreadsheet. :-)
Basically Tango wasn't trying to reinvent the wheel but rather simplify it.

I agree with you that for starting pitchers, xFIP usually is better than FIP because of the homer rate issue. Blanton is really one of the few starters that I can think of who might throw a monkey wrench in xFIP. For relievers, normalizing HRs adds noise because most relievers don't have HR rates that regress to league average to begin with.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

www.mlbtraderumors.com
9:14pm: Fay suggests the A's would want Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and a third player for Blanton.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs...ton-update.asp

No, no, 100 times no.

---

Sounds like Beane is trying to figure out how desperate Krivsky is after losing out on the Bedard deal. Starting the bidding with two top prospects probably assures that he gets at least one of them and change.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Ummmm....no. Chris Denorfia has yet to play a game with the A's. I like Denorfia but the guy will be 28 in July and has 144 career atbats with a .740 OPS.

---

1) McBeth will turn 28 in August
2) He has less than 20 career innings
3) He has a career ERA of 5.95 and WHIP of 1.475.

Sounds eerily similar, doesn't it?

Except Deno is very well regarded for his defense and actually had a really nice stretch in the majors when he was finally given a consistent chance at the end of '06. He was totally jerked around after the Kearns deal.

I will be rooting for him in Oaktown this year.

John Fay -

Quote:

---

The Reds and A's definitely have talked. But the A's are asking a lot for Joe Blanton -- probably Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, plus Joey Votto and a third player. I thought the A's would want Bailey badly based on his start in Oakland -- 7 innings, two hits, one run in a 4-2 win -- but then I remembered Billy Beane doesn't watch games.

The deal could happen if the A's back off the price a bit.

---

That "probably" sounds a lot like speculation. I think the Reds will most likely send a starter back to Oakland.. my guess Cueto. Votto I don't think will be apart of this trade just because Dan Johnson and Daric Barton are at 1st. Granted the use of DH.. but they have Jack Cust listed there who was pretty productive at stints with the bat last year. I think it comes down to quantity after Cueto.. meaning the Reds toss in a couple prospects that are pretty high on the prospect list like Stubbs, Frazier, Fransisco, Roenicke, and Pedro Viola.

Small note but Joe Blanton who is apparently Oakland's ace currently isn't on their banner at OaklandAthletics.com anymore. It used to be Blanton, Street, Tajada and Chavez and now it is Street, Chavez, Crosby, and Ellis. Take that for what it's worth..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Small note but Joe Blanton who is apparently Oakland's ace currently isn't on their banner at OaklandAthletics.com anymore. It used to be Blanton, Street, Tajada and Chavez and now it is Street, Chavez, Crosby, and Ellis. Take that for what it's worth..

---

The plot thickens!

I have six guys I am not dealing for Blanton. Those guys are Bailey, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, Bruce, Maloney. I am willing to give up 2-3 guys, but not ones on that list. If Beane really wants one of those guys, I am going to need Street or Barton or maybe a Crosby/Ellis coming back if I thought one of those guys was the long term answer at SS.

Fine with acquiring Blanton in theory, but add me to the list of NOT fine if the price is two of the Reds big 4. Heck, if it one of the big 4, that is likely too much. But I am positive that two of the big 4 is WAY too much.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by buckeyenut

I have six guys I am not dealing for Blanton. Those guys are Bailey, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, Bruce, Maloney. I am willing to give up 2-3 guys, but not ones on that list. If Beane really wants one of those guys, I am going to need Street or Barton or maybe a Crosby/Ellis coming back if I thought one of those guys was the long term answer at SS.

---

I wouldn't make all six of those guys untouchable. I would hang on to Votto, Bruce, and Cueto. But if I can deal one of Bailey, Volquez, or Maloney in a package, along with a couple lesser prospects, I would make the deal.

I think now that Hamilton is gone, the Reds need to keep both Votto and Bruce. And I'm not too keen on trading Cueto until I'm sure he won't become the next Mario Soto.

I'm fine with obtaining Blanton for any package not centered around Jay Bruce. It's time the Reds quit talking and trade some of the hype. I just wish the Orioles would have bit on a package based on Homer Bailey and Joey Votto. A creative organization would be able to get a RH bat for 1b and I believe Homer Bailey will struggle to ever sustain a spot in a big league rotation. I've watched him in Louisville and obviously Cincinnati and I don't think he will ever be able to locate his fastball enough to succeed at any high level. IMO, Homer Bailey is the person we should be moving. Sadly I think Billy Beane realizes that Cueto is the better option and will gun for him. Unless Homer suddenly comes up with a consistent third pitch he can't be counted on in the rotation. You can get away with not locating your fastball if you have two other plus pitches, Homer doesn't. Can he ever get that third pitch? I'd rather watch another organization figure it out while we obtain someone that can give us 200+ innings and that third arm we need.

The shine is still there with Homer Bailey, I'm just afraid it's gonna be washed away soon. He has been hyped properly by the organization, now is the time we move him for some serious talent. If not we are staring at a relief pitcher that doesn't seem to have the makeup to accept that role. Just my two cents.

Homer Bailey, Maloney and a lower tier pitching prospect would be sufficient for Blanton.

What scares me about Blanton is his 5+ ERA on the road.