You’re leaving out he was injured both seasons. He’s the one being discussed in trade talks because he is the closest to free agency.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
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You’re leaving out he was injured both seasons. He’s the one being discussed in trade talks because he is the closest to free agency.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
I’d argue it’s both factors. Prospects fall off after good rookie seasons frequently. It’s not so much cautionary as a fact. A very high percentage of players wash out and one season isn’t really a guarantee of much of anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If you counted on one season of stats to make an impression, then people would be anxious to move Elly, but we know the potential is there so we wait.
I’m not sure if India is included in discussions because he’s getting close to FA or because he seems to be getting closer to fading into a Nick Senzel-like career injury trajectory and they think right now his trade value is as high as it’s going to be. And if they can say some nice things about Jonathan India, like “He’s the heart and soul of this team” and capitalize on that ROY season three years ago, it might bring a bigger return.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I think that’s fair. Plantar fasciitis is a serious injury that can derail a career. However, it India can get healthy, I am rather confident that his production would be similar to his rookie year.Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeS21
Being injury prone isn’t a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If he’s injured so frequently that isn’t a plus.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Is there any question that India’s playing and trade value are diminished from his rookie year?
Believe me, if his performance was better the Reds would keep him, gladly, and pay him the arbitration salary.
India’s value has dropped, nearly entirely because of injuries. That’s not evidence that young player’s values drop over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Some young players get injured, some regress, some improve, some stay the same. I’ve never seen any study that shows that we should expect young player’s value to decline.
His value has plummeted because his bat looks more average than great and his defense is slipping into the void.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
His bat was fine last year when he was healthy. His defense has never been good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitri
In 2021 they added a reliever, Givens. Also added Cabrera.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates
If only …Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Unfortunately, pretty much the same could be said about Nick Senzel, who never really ever had a healthy enough year to show his talent … or Tyler Stephenson … or Hunter Greene … or Nick Lodolo. And I could probably list twenty more promising players who arguably got derailed by injuries.
To this day, I wonder just how differently things might have turned out for Jose Barrero had he not hurt his wrist coming into the 2022 season. From the darling of the Reds farm system to “Jose who?” before he was ever cleared to play, all because this kid named Elly de la Cruz had come out of nowhere. And now everyone wonders if EDLC’s star is fading. If only …
I believe India can do better if healthier. But that belief is speculative, as is any assumption of good health. I doubt any club will offer much for the speculative part of his profile.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
The hard numbers are the main part of his profile and they don’t present a high value player.
India could be a solid player at a different position. MLB outlawed the shift and his position standing in short RF no longer exists and the other players who shifted around to cover for him at second can’t do that anymore. Trade him to a team with a need at third. If you can get a solid late inning reliever make the deal. If not, take prospects who can either be flipped for other needs or who can backfill for other prospects who get dealt for those needs.
Fit matters when building a roster and India is not a good fit.
Now that Seattle has traded away its third baseman in ex-Red Eugenio Suarez, would the Reds consider a straight-up trade of five years of Spencer Steer for six years of righthander Bryce Miller?Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Is Steer's third-base defense salvageable under the tutelage of Seattle infield coach Perry Hill (who worked with Suarez)?
Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus trade values of $28.2 million for Steer and $25.8 million for Miller.
Thoughts?
I don’t mind trading Steer, but I would rather package him with a prospect or two and get someone like Gilbert, or another top of the rotation starter. I think the Miller and Woo are more bottom of the rotation types. If the Reds are to add guys like that, I’d rather they sign veterans like Wacha, Paxton or Miley instead of giving up MLB talent to get them.Quote:
Originally Posted by harmony
Logan Gilbert would likely require an immediate impact hitter, not a prospect or two and a down-order bat with questionable defensive skills.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
The Mariners would prefer to acquire Spencer Steer with lesser pieces than Bryce Miller straight up ... but the Reds probably would not be interested.
FWIW FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.3 in 143 innings for Bryce Miller, who this year posted 1.9 fWAR in 131 innings. FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.4 in 146 games for Spencer Steer, who this year posted 2.1 fWAR in 156 games. Miller, who is eight months younger than Steer, comes with one more year of team control.
Yeah, Miller's a good player. Solid to above average. I love that he seems to eat innings.Quote:
Originally Posted by harmony
That in itself has value.
But he's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Among the 127 SP with 100 IP or more, he ranked 10th from last in GB%.
The Reds already have one guy who pitches like that (Andrew Abbott). In the GABP, those Safeco fly ball outs become HR more often than not. In short, he's unlikely to be as good in Cincinnati as he is in Seattle-- and the Reds need a guy who's better than Andrew Abbott if they want to compete for a pennant.
Were I the M's GM, I'd check in with Los Angeles on Brandon Drury, sign Jeimer Candelario, or look to Jonathan India (or Nick Senzel).
If you trade Steer, you’ll regret it.
I agree and I hope it doesn’t happen!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
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Elly’s star is fading???Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeS21
Marte was injured playing winter ball last night and had to be helped off the field. Looks like a hammy injury.
https://x.com/heygingersaurus/status...fJYLaleGI4o4XA
Surely he'll be ready by the time Spring Training comes around.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
Right?
Depends how serious. It took Griffey a year and a half and a major surgery to come back and he was never the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
Another good reason to not trade India.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
I certainly hope this changes the Reds’ mind. I’m not crazy about India but man, you know Marte’s replacement will be someone like Newman or worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by goreds2
Griffey was in his 30’s and the severity of his hamstring injury was extremely rare.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
The vast majority of hamstring injuries take days, at worst weeks to fully heal.
And so far, no other source is picking up the story. If it were very serious, there’d be more chirping about it at this point I feel.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If Marte is out for the season (which is highly unlikely) and the Reds traded India, Steer would play 3B most of the time. Or move EDLC to 3B, McLain to SS and Steer to 2B.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I know. Something worse like Steer at 3b or moving EDLC to 3b McLain to SS and Steer to 2b. The horror!Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I think you know that dumping India means that a lesser bat makes the squad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Old school 1983
It’s Sunday morning and the injury took place in another country. The Reds will probably bring him back to the states to get checked out, he’s supposed to be in town for Redsfest anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Sure but that doesn’t stop people from tweeting updates. I’m just saying, we don’t really know anything at this point. And the fact that more isn’t being said is probably good.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
This video shows the injury, I'm not seeing the distress of a career threatening injury myself
https://twitter.com/Mike_Kurland/sta...89649093452282
News out of Minnesota is that they're trying to pare payroll.
Who'd say no if the Reds offered Tyler Stephenson and a (far) lesser prospect (Jose Barrero? Carson Spiers?) for C Christian Vazquez and his $10M per season two-year contract, with the idea of adding both RHRP Kody Funderburk and UT Kyle Farmer (and his likely $6.6M arbitration payout)?
Funderburk's minor league numbers scream back of the pen upside, plus he's cheap and controllable. Vazquez is supposedly exceptional defensively and can occasionally hit a bit as well. Farmer fixes both the short-side platoon and defensive middle infield backup issues.
Agree, but until we hear more detail, I don't think we should assume.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I'd do that as fast as you could say Tyler Stephenson. It would be a massive upgrade to the defense and Farmer is a solid option for 5th IF and adds needed ability to hit against LHP. Then deal India for prospects and the team's two worst defenders are out of the picture.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
I don't think it is either, but you can never tell by looking. The Reds have had enough bad injury luck that I don't believe it's OK until we know it's OK.Quote:
Originally Posted by westofyou
I have no problem trading Stephenson, but I think he’s about to turn the corner offensively, so I would want more than an expensive backup catcher and a relief pitcher.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
The Reds already have a strong defensive catcher in Maile, so I would focus on getting a more offensive minded catcher to pair with him, or a cheap backup and make Maile the starting catcher.
Funderburk looks interesting, but I could think of better ways for the Reds to spend 17 million than on Vazquez and Farmer. The only way they need Farmer is if India gets traded. Vazquez could be an interesting target, but the Twins would have to pick up some of that $ or throw in a guy like Funderburk as you mentioned to sweeten the deal. I could see Stephenson for Vazquez and Funderburk making sense for the Reds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
So you are suggesting trading a 3 win player for three 1 win players. I wonder where I heard that strategy before? ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee