Keppinger
Encarnacion
Dunn
Griffey
Phillips
Hatteberg/Votto
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher
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Keppinger
Encarnacion
Dunn
Griffey
Phillips
Hatteberg/Votto
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher
I and others on this board might be able to make a better lineup than Dusty, but the managers job is to make out the lineup day after day. Most teams go through 50-60- sometimes over 100 different lineups in a season. Each day the manager changes the lineup due to the pitcher, the stadium, the weather conditions, the health of the players, whether players are hot or cold at the plate, defensive considerations, and many more factors.
I have a feeling that whatever runs Dusty loses by putting Patterson first or Dunn fitfth, he more than makes up for with his tweaking of the lineup on a daily basis, that us fans, who think we are so smart, would not be able to do nearly as well.
Lots of great lineups here folks! Thanks and keep 'em coming!
Remember, the first one should be using Dusty Baker's starting eight players (i.e. Hatteberg, not Votto). That way we can get an idea of the effect of juggling lineup slots, not personnel.
The second lineup is your chance to use any of the players in the Reds' organization. That'll help us understand the effects of juggling personnel.
-Justin
1. Scott Hatteberg 1st Base
2. Jeff Keppinger Shortstop
3. Adam Dunn Left Field
4. Edwin Encarnacion 3rd Base
5. Ken Griffey Jr. Right Field
6. Brandon Phillips 2nd Base
7. Corey Patterson Centerfield
8. Javier Valetine Catcher
9. Aaron Harang Pitcher
I want Hatteberg leading off because he'll cause Webb to throw a lot of pitches and with a guy like Webb pitching you want him out of the game ASAP.
Keppinger is a good contact hitter so if you need to have a Hit and Run situation he'll be a good one to use.
I like Dunn batting third because he's the best power hitter on the Reds and he shouldn't be batting 5th IMO.
Edwin provides that split in between the two big lefties that a lot of people like to have. He's got some power and good contact so I would like to see him there.
Griffey bats 5th because he's just not as powerful as Dunn right now.
Phillips is a free swinger so the 6th spot is a good spot to have him at.
Patterson might be fast but that won't matter if you can't get on base. Having him and Phillips near each other in the lineup could cause some havoc on the basepath's.
Javier is probably a better pinch hitter than an everyday player so if Ross was healthy he would be in this spot.
I don't disagree with this, necessarily, but what I want to study is how much moving players around in the batting order affects the performance of the order as a whole. Granted, there are things this model won't account for (it assumes a league-average pitcher, and that players will perform consistently around their PECOTA projections), but I still think the results are going to be pretty interesting. If there's one thing I've learned from playing with this model thus far, it's that what appear to be small changes to a lineup can make an enormous difference in its performance, and not always in the direct I expect. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
-j
Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
So, I suppose that all managers over the course of the year are better than non-managers would be at putting together a lineup?
I figured that I should probably stick my neck out as well. So, this is a lineup that I would probably have proposed using Dusty's Opening Day Eight prior to messing around with this model:
Encarnacion
Dunn
Keppinger
Griffey
Hatteberg
Phillips
Valentin
Patterson
Pitcher
At this point, from various sources, I've gotten 16 unique lineup submissions, six of which are variants on today's opening day players. I'd like to at least double this number for the study, so keep 'em coming. :)
-j
Edit:
One more:
Lineup with my choice of players and decent balance between lefties and righties:
Votto
Encarnacion
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Bruce
Keppinger
Valentin
Pitcher
Using today's starting eight I would go with:
Keppinger
Hatteberg
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Phillips
Valentin
Patterson
Harang
Rinse. Repeat.
Encarnacion has been sucking, in spring training, on the field, and in the lineup. Don't see why people are putting him so high. He needs to start off hot for a change instead of waiting until August to get it together.
Based on todays starters:
Hatteberg
Keppinger
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
EdE
Patterson
Javy
Not todays starters:
Votto
Keppinger
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
Bruce
EdE
Ross
After today's effort perhaps a greater challenge would to be to come up with a lineup that is not better than Dusty's. :p:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS
You don't understand, its a ritual here at Red Zoan that who bats 7th and who bats 8th makes the difference between being world champs and finishing behind the Pirates.
The bottom line- If Cueto, Edison, and the bull pen come through, we'll do fine. If they don't , we won't. And it doesn't make any difference if Dusty bats himself leadoff.
SS-Kepp
1b-Votto
LF-Dunn
2B-BP
RF-JR
3B-EdE
CF-Patterson
C-Javy
----------------------
SS-Keppinger
CF-Bruce
LF-Dunn
2B-BP
RF-JR
1B-Votto
3B-EdE
C-Javy
Yes. They get paid to do it and we pay to watch them.:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by PickOff
It had nothing to do about where people were hitting. Moving Dunn up or Hopper in was not going to make that big of a difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by texasdave