Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
I don't have a problem with Bruce doing it every now and then.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
I don't have a problem with Bruce doing it every now and then.
I'll gladly take Bruce hitting .400+, with all singles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chip R
Because if Bruce gets good at bunting, and the opposition continues to play without a 3b, he could probably hit 400.
Isn't the point that you only have to do it a few times to keep the defense honest (and therefore weaker in general against you)?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jay...what-happened/Quote:
Originally Posted by WildcatFan
The article looks at the shift as a possible cause and doesn't find much evidence to support the argument. More than anything else, it finds that pitchers are giving him less to hit. Meanwhile, Bruce is swinging more out of the zone and making more contact when he does so. That said, I have another theory perhaps you'll indulge: Bruce has been slightly worse and also quite unlucky in very regular ways, with the latter doing most of the heavy lifting. His BB% and K% haven't changed much, both down slightly. His FB:GB mix hasn't changed radically. His LD% has dipped, but not radically. His HR/FB rate has dipped a little, but not radically. According to statcast data, Bruce's average exit velocity last year was basically identical to Votto's. So maybe it's not that he's hitting ball notably differently so much as it is that he's not getting the same results, even if the shift isn't to blame.
Remember how Matt Cain had this "ability" to sustain extremely low ERAs relative to his FIP over multiple years and people were coming out of the woodwork to explain why it was definitely a skill he possessed? It was a skill that just showed up one year, stuck around for a few years, and then vanished. Of course, it's possible -- even likely -- that skill played some role. But it's also possible, even likely, that luck played a role as well. I think it's quite possible that's what we're seeing with Bruce -- he has "randomly" hit more balls at guys instead of balls that fall in for hits.
For the sake of example, let's say that Bruce replaces some batted ball outs with singles in each of the last two seasons such that his BABIP approached .292, where it was for the first 6 years of his career. That means he adds 8 singles in 2014 and 17 singles in 2015. This is what happens to his slash lines:
2014: .217/.281/.373 -> .233/.295/.389 (+ 0.7 WAR)
2015: .226/.294/.434 -> .255/.320/.464 (+ 1.5 WAR)
Just by adding "missing" singles, his 2015 looks like a typical Jay Bruce season again. Perhaps a little light on the power, but I'm not saying he's necessarily back 100%, just not nearly as bad as he's looked. We want to find a complicated explanation for it, but sometimes the easy explanation is the right one.
Sorry guys - even though I mentioned Votto, I meant it more for Bruce than for Votto bunting (although if it's a guaranteed base, I have no issue with Votto doing it either, even though I'd rather see him walk). I just hope Bruce doesn't try it once or twice, get out, and decide to no longer try it again.
I don't remember whether it was last year or 2014, but he did try swing changes mid-season and it was a disaster.Quote:
Originally Posted by bucksfan2
Same story, different year
It's never the swing, it's his head. He thinks too much
You just gave me my new sig. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Raisor
Does anyone remember the yearly articles about Dunn doing some tweaking to cut down on those nasty evil strike outs? :D
Not all of us are as old as you, old man.Quote:
Originally Posted by KronoRed
Good heavens. The argument stopped here, right? Must have. I'm not gonna look because there's no need. This certainly ended it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raisor
And if he improves enough at it where he can get the bunt down regularly...the shift will disappear.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
This will probably improve Bruce and he'll have a monster year . . . for somebody else after the Reds get a middling prospect for him.
I'll be concise:
Bruce: Yes, he should bunt more.
Votto: Doesn't need to bunt.
You try and not let it get in your head when the haters are hating. Hard to shake that kind of stuff off.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rando
[Seriously though, you're 100 percent correct. I'm not buying it's a "swing" issue with Jay. It's mental. He's lost his confidence. And the haters hating certainly doesn't help. Sorry, couldn't help myself.]
With Bruce, I have no problem with anyone taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
It's the swing. Sort of. His swing is loopy, resulting in lots of fly balls. That's not always a problem, but if he's trying to hit for more average, getting a slightly more level swing could help with that. Lowering your hands will do that. Less travel, less loop in the swing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rando
Looking at the spray data, take the LD and FB out of the picture. It appears as if most of the GB's Bruce hits are to a certain part of the field. I would venture to say that 3/4 to 4/5 of the GB's Bruce hits are in between the 2nd base bag and the first baseman. The defense is able to position itself to eliminate many of Bruce's hits. Now you may be able to say that the shift hasn't done anything new to Bruce's offensive numbers, but I don't think you can deny it has eliminated many of his hits. In essence, if it wasn't working then teams wouldn't be doing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsManRick
But I wonder this, and truth be told I don't know a way to measure it. But I wonder how much the shift has effected Bruce's mental aspect of hitting. How much the shift has changed his approach at the plate. I have never stepped into a batters box at a high level of baseball, but I would assume that when a hitter steps in, he at least wants to know where the defense is playing him. Not another fact not often talked about with the shift and Bruce, is what the pitchers are doing, they are pitching in him places that would be more prevalent to induce a ball hit into the shift. For example, if Bruce has shown the ability to take a ball off the outside corner and hit a GB down the 3rd base line, they aren't going to pitch him there much with the shift on. So the defense is positioned to take away Bruce's propensity to hit to the right side of the IF and the pitchers are pitching to induce GB's in that direction, what does Bruce the batter do? Does he press, try to do things that he has no business doing?
I think the shift is taking hits away from Bruce, but I also think it is messing with his mind when it comes to hitting.
Whether or not you believe Bruce regularly bunting for base hits is a good thing against shifts, the shifts probably won't disappear.Quote:
Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
From the book, "Big Data Baseball":
"...While (Jay) Bruce was nine times more likely to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield than the left in 2012, he was ten times more likely to do so for his career, which covered more than 2,500 batted balls put into play.
"...The infielders had questions. If they left roughly half of the infield uncovered, wouldn't the batter simply go the other way? Wouldn't he adjust? Heck, he could just drop a bunt down. However, the coaching staff explained that if the batter bunted, he would be eliminating his chance for an extra-base hit. This would take him out of his preferred approach. Moreover, the coaches noted how pitches on the outside of the plate were more likely to be hit on the ground to a batter's pull side, into the teeth of the defensive alignment, given the swing plane, the path of the bat, and the angle to the ball. Coaches explained outside pitches hit into play to the opposite field were more likely to be lifted into the air due to the angle of the swing.
"Studies of hundreds of thousands of balls in play showed little evidence of hitters' changing their batted ball profile. Based upon anecdotal evidence, even the few lefties that were shifted against continued to try to pull the ball and to hit home runs because that's what they were paid to do. Let them try to change their approach, the Pirates were told. Let them go away from their strengths."
This is the key statement. It appears that no one has (successfully) been able to change their approach.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chip R
If it was easy to become an expert bunter (I know it isn't) and drop it down the 3b line every time, maybe the shifts would change.
I totally agree with the Pirates' statement. Why not shift? It appears the hitters either can't or won't change their approach because of it.
That's why we are suggesting Bruce bunting. His BA/OBP is so poor that it's worth sacrificing some power to try something different.
Now I have no idea if he's working on this or not. It is not a criticism, it just seems when someone has hit rock bottom like Bruce, it would be worth it to try to bunt for a hit when the opposition is playing effectively without a 3b. If nothing else, it would change the batted ball profile. A lot fewer balls would go to the shifted 2b and SS. The 3b (now playing SS) would get a lot fewer chances as well. If you did it long enough, the spray chart changes and then the defense moves back to a more normal position. And if they don't, we'd take any player batting his way to a 400ish OBP.
Yeah Jay has got probbbblems, and I don't think he's gonna solllllllve them.:rockband:Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
But you said it best when you said it isn't easy to be an expert bunter. If it were, Billy Hamilton would have a .500 OBP. They aren't going to be serving it up on a tee for him. This isn't BP from 45 feet away with no one in the stands. These are guys throwing 90 plus with movement. Even getting one down isn't enough. You have to get it down far enough so the pitcher or catcher can't make a play on it. I'd much rather have Jay work on his regular hitting than learning how to bunt.Quote:
Originally Posted by REDREAD
The only way teams will stop shifting on him is if he starts hitting line drives and home runs to the opposite field. Eight year veterans who are entering their free agency year aren't going to learn to bunt successfully on a regular basis. Batters are not going to change their approaches - especially veteran hitters.
He and Whiffey are runing this team.Quote:
Originally Posted by KronoRed
Oh I agree, it's not easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chip R
And I am saying this.. I am not a mind reader. I don't know what Bruce has tried or not tried.
It doesn't seem like he's attempted many bunts to the 3b line though.
Maybe there's a good reason for this. IF he could do this though, it might remove the shift.
So yea, I agree with you. I'd like to see Bruce try to bunt more though. For awhile, he seemed to be trying hard to hit the ball the other way, and had some success.
Again, I do not have the numbers to back this up, but it seemed like he went away from that approach. Maybe there was a good reason.
Just frustrating to see him pound the ball right into the shift the majority of the time. Sometimes the ball does get through, but not often enough (at least during his cold spells).
But yea, maybe Bruce just can't do it. Not accusing him of being lazy. Just would like to see him show the bunt. After the all star break last year, Bruce hit 199 and had a 242 OBP. Plenty of people lobby for Billy H to bunt more, since he has a weak OBP, why not the same for Bruce? Billy is faster, but Bruce has the advantage of no one at 3b.
Jay is now batting .400 this spring after his 2-for-3 performance today against the Angels.
Orioles, what are you waiting for? We haven't had a .400 hitter in MLB since Ted Williams and you aren't going to jump all over Jay Bruce before someone else does? Don't be losers.
I canīt read/hear it anymore... how often do people say player xy should practice his bunting and than post a bunting for a hit percentage that is unbelievable.
Bunting isnīt easy. Itīs not like youīll do it 3 weeks in spring training and afterwards make 66% of your bunts... It is not that easy, there is a reason not many do it on a regular bases.
next thing: if you can get a bunt down, the pitch was most likely a hittable pitch. You donīt want to see your power guy wasting those pitches. I like Vottos approach to avoid outs (while hitting for power aswell) but I just donīt think that bunting would help him doing that.
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomnuetten
A bunt-able pitch is usually a hittable pitch. Don't pass it up.
What's different?
Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raisor
Just look at the data from the article I linked:Quote:
Originally Posted by bucksfan2
The last two seasons, he's actually had a much higher BABIP and hit XBH more often against the shift than when not being shifted on. I don't know why that is the case. It would make sense that he'd be hurt by the shift. I agree with your other point; it's possible that the shift has affected him mentally in a way that affects all of his PA. But the question of whether or not the shift is directly responsible for his significant drop in BABIP is answerable and the answer is no. The data show us quite cleanly that Bruce's BABIP problems are coming almost entirely from his incredibly poor BABIP when he's not being shifted on.Code:Season PA Shifted Shift BABIP No Shift BABIP XBH% Shift XBH% No Shift
2015 434 174 0.276 0.195 0.081 0.073
2014 350 192 0.292 0.211 0.073 0.000
2013 418 121 0.231 0.373 0.091 0.112
2012 383 171 0.322 0.275 0.105 0.101
The whole point of bunting is:Quote:
Originally Posted by tomnuetten
1. Make the defense move the 3b back to 3b.
2. Help Bruces' anemic average. He's not getting good results on hittable pitchers. Bruce hit 199 (with a poor OBP) last year I don't think we are setting the bar high here.
Could Bruce learn to bunt well enough (when the third baseman is out of position) to hit .200? I think that's doable. Is it easy? No nothing is easy, but Bruce really hasn't even tried. He briefly tried to focus on hitting the ball the other way (I think it was 2014)... The reason the Pirates (and I assume other teams) do the shift is because they have found hitter's spray pattern does not change, even with the shift. If Bruce attempted one bunt every at bat when there was no 3b, maybe the shift goes away. There's no way to know for sure, but it's worth trying. No shift would help Bruce (I don't think anyone is disputing that, but maybe someone is)
So, yea, bunting is not easy, but it's not as if Bruce is hitting well as he is now. I would gladly sacrifice maybe 5-10 HR a year from Bruce if it meant eliminating the shift, and increasing Bruce's OBP. Bruce had 25 HR last year, but his OBP was so poor that his Offensive WAR was 0.2 (basically replacement level).
Bunting is difficult when you have people charging at you. Bunting is a little less difficult when the entire 3rd base line is wide open. Not easy, but not as difficult as a traditional bunt.
I've been saying it for years. Doug can say whatever he wants about the mechanics of swings, but there are some ugly mechanical swings out there and guys are still raking. Jay Bruce just isn't the smartest player out there. He's not Nuke Laloosh dumb, he's more Rube Baker dumb.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rando
The 2013 shift drastically reduced his overall BABIP and he has never recovered.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsManRick
for the crowd saying Votto or Bruce should not bunt, I think you all are missing the 1 and only point of bunting when the shift is giving you the free bunt.....you bunt to bring the defense out of the shift....
I highly doubt teams are going to sit out there and allow Jay and Joey to bunt 4 out of 4 times to the plate and take a give me base at 1st.....they will eventually come out of the shift, even if only slightly in little increments....
case in point....Matt Adams for the Cards last few seasons...every team in the league shifted on him and he started out by eating us alive in ground balls to the invisible 3rd basemen....fast forward to the next series we played them and bam, there sat a 3rd baseman right where he is supposed to be....Adams is more equal to Bruce than Votto so if teams move out of the shift against Bruce as quick as they did against Adams then I am perfectly fine with it....
even if they bunt and make an out, teams will take notice.
I understand Votto has silly stats and teams would love to see him bunt instead of shoot the gaps, but I would love to at least give it a try and see what happens.....
lets also not forgot, just becuase the shift is on doesnt mean the batter is going to get a pitch to bunt down the 3rd base line...he still has to get the pitch he needs to be able to place that ball.......so if the shift is on and Votto gets an fastball on the inside portion of his meat, then drive that ball, gap it....do what you do.....but god forbid he takes an outside pitch and lays a bunt down for a free base and now all of a sudden the infield starts doubting their spots....coaches will want to take that freebie away..
besides, if teams truly would love Votto to bunt instead of swing for the gaps then they would intentionally walk him every single at bat. Even if Barry Bonds were laying bunts down every at bat, teams would go away from the shift and try to stop him....its the name of the game and ego's normally are in charge
It's not about mechanics, it's about swing path. Bruce's swing path produces lots of high fly balls. When those don't go over the fence, they go for outs too often. Of course, that swing path is one reason Bruce does hit 30 bombs every year. But, the point was, if he wants to improve his average, lowering his hands is going to likely take a slight bit of loop out of his swing, resulting in (likely) less of those types of fly balls.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd Gack
Votto's spray chart shows that he can beat the shift, which no one does against him anyway on a regular basis, without bunting.
Bruce, fine. Bunt away.
Joey Notto.
I've been saying this for years, unless you actually know Jay Bruce and have talked to him and have a real idea about his intelligence your opinion on his intelligence is crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd Gack
That's enough.
Seriously. Who shifts on Votto?Quote:
Originally Posted by Raisor