Royals interested in Bruce?

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Originally Posted by RedFanT

I find your claimed line of thinking on defensive metrics quite ironic, considering that you thought we shouldn't have paid attention to Jay's post-July offensive collapse in 2015 (preferring to concentrate on what he did earlier in the season when judging him). Funny thing those numbers, they tend to have a way of elucidating and illuminating through people's subjective opinions. So, here, let me fix that for you: this is Jay's UZRs since 2014 (2014, -6.1; 2015, -4.2, 2016, -9). That's a -19.3 UZR in almost 2,800 defensive innings. Maybe his range is as streaky as his hitting (a post-injury/2+ season-long streak, that is).

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Cool. And I'll counter that his fielding runs above-average (from Baseball Prospectus) since 2014: 1.3, 3.0 and -6.5. That's -2.2 and the bad number on there, it's the small sample size one. And that's kind of my point. The defensive metrics "we" use aren't very good. They don't all agree with each other and in some cases, like Jay Bruce here, disagree in an enormous way. That's about two entire wins of difference in basically two full seasons.

As for the offensive stuff, you probably misunderstood what I was saying. That was: see if he can repeat what he did through July and trade him when he's going well. Don't trade him now when he's at an all-time low.

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Originally Posted by Elam

Alex Gordon was placed on the 15 day DL today with a wrist injury. Might serve as a catalyst for the Reds.

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Gordon is out at least 3 to 4 weeks with a fractured wrist. So the trade talks may really pick up for a replacement.

Would love to get Dozier. A little concerned about his strikeout rate but he is absolutely raking this year and is only 24.

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Originally Posted by Cannon

Would love to get Dozier. A little concerned about his strikeout rate but he is absolutely raking this year and is only 24.

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No way does that happen.

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Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!

No way does that happen.

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I don't see it as terribly unlikely, peep his stats from 2014 and 2015 in AA. Brutal. Maybe the Royals believe he's finally figured it out, or maybe they aren't buying it and would be happy to sell high to get a major league player.

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Originally Posted by Tom Servo

I would also try to trade him ASAP (because if a team needs a hitter now why bother waiting?) but I don't think the defense will play a huge role one way or the other in another team's decision.

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Really would have no problem if Bruce goes sooner rather than later, but Cozart is the one I would be trying to unload as soon as humanly possible.

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Originally Posted by reds44

Really would have no problem if Bruce goes sooner rather than later, but Cozart is the one I would be trying to unload as soon as humanly possible.

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I really don't think anybody is buying into Cozart the hitter. The book is out on him. He's a bad hitter. His age type and career profile is what teams are going to look at. He's going to be viewed as a second division starter or a fill in.

No team is going to offer a worthwhile prospect for him until they are desperate enough that they need such a piece. Will take an injury from their existing SS, or a grand under performance from the incumbent. I don't think we are sitting on a ticking time bomb before he turns back into a pumpkin. He is what he is, and I feel pretty comfortable that he is being held unless a real offer comes in on him.

Why would you hold onto him? They've moved Peraza to SS for a reason. Phillips is here as long as he wants to be. I'm not asking for some great package in return, just any sort of fringe prospect with real value. I'd take another Duvall type for him.

There's literally no reason to not move him.

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Originally Posted by reds44

Why would you hold onto him? They've moved Peraza to SS for a reason. Phillips is here as long as he wants to be. I'm not asking for some great package in return, just any sort of fringe prospect with real value. I'd take another Duvall type for him.

There's literally no reason to not move him.

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So as not to give him away unless you actually get something you need. I don't get trading him for literally anything if it doesn't produce a meaningful asset back. He's a reasonable major league player that isn't tied to a hindering contract.

Consensus around here is that his market value is approximately that of a JJ Hoover highlight tape circa 2013-2015.

At this point, is Jay's salary really a hindrance on the club? Hang on, hear me out. Most of the posts I've seen here are suggesting dealing Bruce for payroll relief in exchange for a mediocre OF prospect and a middling bullpen arm. Isn't this club shorthanded in terms of OF depth? We've got Winker...and? If Jay's defense is as bad as the numbers suggest (and I don't think it IS as bad as they seem to indicate), then a move to LF would alleviate that concern. His bat is certainly more valuable than any middling prospect's would be. He's not old (29).

My point is that if salary relief is the main concern...shouldn't we look at the team payroll? We're currently 25th out of 30 teams. Why the immediate need/desire to cut payroll more? Does anybody honestly think that if we dealt Bruce that the Reds would use that money to improve the club's roster? No, they'd pocket the savings and hold onto it until they needed it further down the road IMO. With a club full of kids, the payroll won't be an issue. Is there anybody on the club due for a raise? I guess I'm just not understanding the fan-motivation to reduce payroll.

All that being said, if the Reds can get a good return on Jay (or Cozart) and it improves the club either now or in the future...great. I'm game. But to deal him off for spare parts and a lottery ticket just to cut costs? No. There's no need. The Reds payroll is NOT overextended.

Yeah...unless we're getting a decent return there's no need to move Bruce or Cozart to be honest.

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Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

At this point, is Jay's salary really a hindrance on the club? Hang on, hear me out. Most of the posts I've seen here are suggesting dealing Bruce for payroll relief in exchange for a mediocre OF prospect and a middling bullpen arm. Isn't this club shorthanded in terms of OF depth? We've got Winker...and? If Jay's defense is as bad as the numbers suggest (and I don't think it IS as bad as they seem to indicate), then a move to LF would alleviate that concern. His bat is certainly more valuable than any middling prospect's would be. He's not old (29).

My point is that if salary relief is the main concern...shouldn't we look at the team payroll? We're currently 25th out of 30 teams. Why the immediate need/desire to cut payroll more? Does anybody honestly think that if we dealt Bruce that the Reds would use that money to improve the club's roster? No, they'd pocket the savings and hold onto it until they needed it further down the road IMO. With a club full of kids, the payroll won't be an issue. Is there anybody on the club due for a raise? I guess I'm just not understanding the fan-motivation to reduce payroll.

All that being said, if the Reds can get a good return on Jay (or Cozart) and it improves the club either now or in the future...great. I'm game. But to deal him off for spare parts and a lottery ticket just to cut costs? No. There's no need. The Reds payroll is NOT overextended.

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I'm guessing the problem is that acquiring teams want the Reds to pay some of Bruce's salary. I think he's at $12.5MM right now, pro rated over the season.

The Reds probably don't "need" to dump Bruce's salary immediately. But they may be unwilling to trade him yet remain on the hook for some of that salary.

Which leads us to the trade deadline when the remaining portion of his salary should be small enough so a deal can be made.

Don't you guys realize how many Blake Woods the Reds could pay with Bruce's salary? If they get rid of him, they might even be able to sign Badenhof!

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Originally Posted by Kc61

I'm guessing the problem is that acquiring teams want the Reds to pay some of Bruce's salary. I think he's at $12.5MM right now, pro rated over the season.

The Reds probably don't "need" to dump Bruce's salary immediately. But they may be unwilling to trade him yet remain on the hook for some of that salary.

Which leads us to the trade deadline when the remaining portion of his salary should be small enough so a deal can be made.

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Well supposedly at spring training, the Reds were willing to eat 8 or 8.5 million of Bruce's salary.. I Can't remember the exact number.
I imagine that offer is still on the table for the right prospect.

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Originally Posted by marcshoe

Don't you guys realize how many Blake Woods the Reds could pay with Bruce's salary? If they get rid of him, they might even be able to sign Badenhof!

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...or a Jay Bruce, who's not even playing at replacement level (-0.3 WAR in 2016, so far, and -0.6 WAR since 2014), while getting paid 12 times a higher annual salary than Badenhop. Funny how it's all about winning with fans, until they're losing, and they simply cannot face reality. If we're going to tank, I'd prefer to tank with something other than sub-replacement level players who are getting paid like they're still All Stars. Or we could stop worshiping players' performance past and look at what they are doing in the here and now, and stop pretending that this is 2013 Jay Bruce (or that his knees are going to get in a time machine and go back to before the 2014 season).

I know this is a game and one we all love, but at some point it's a business and decisions have to be made. And the Reds have made it clear, he's not going to LF or 1B (and obviously cannot DH, unless it's interleague play), so you're stuck with a sinkhole in right (a sinkhole that is literally dragging down the rest of his game and making him less appealing an option than the average replacement level player at his position). That is the reality of the situation, and if that is the reality of the situation I prefer facing it, excising the problem, and moving on, instead of hoping and dreaming that this will change. I noted this before. As a fan, and as someone who watched Jay come up through the system, I understand. I did the same thing with my favorite player after 1982, and it took until after his career was over to admit that I lied to myself about his abilities the last several years of his career. There are far too many Jay Bruce fans on this board doing the same exact thing. Yes, he's 'only' 29. Unfortunately, he's a 29 year old DH playing right field.

Maybe what Bruce's salary pro-rates to, but I recently read that the Reds owe him 8 mil and some change at this point.

The Royals are also eyeing Markakis, ice-cold, no pwer, and making the same as Bruce.

Or this:

https://redlegnation.com/2016/05/20/...for-jay-bruce/

:evil:

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Originally Posted by '69 & Vine

Or this:

https://redlegnation.com/2016/05/20/...for-jay-bruce/

:evil:

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Although imagine this blueprint for 2018: Bruce in RF, Jesse Winker in LF, Adam Duvall at 3B (his natural position), Eugenio Suarez at SS (his natural position) and Jose Peraza at 2B. Or something like that, maybe switch Peraza and Suarez. That’s a bargain-basement plan and not without flaws. But it’s a plan.

And it includes keeping Jay Bruce around from 2018-20. Say, at $43 million for 3 years.

I wouldn't have a problem with that. It also means we have a chance to be decent next year. It also just reiterates why we shouldn't have traded Frazier since a 2017 team with Frazier and Bruce could have a real shot and the only future sacrifice is Peraza > Blandino, which isn't much of a dropoff IMO.


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Originally Posted by '69 & Vine

Or this:

https://redlegnation.com/2016/05/20/...for-jay-bruce/

:evil:

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Good lord, that's sheer insanity to offer Bruce an extension.
How about this, don't pick up Bruce's option. Wait him out. Unless he maintains this 800+ OPS for an entire year (which I doubt), he will be available at a bargain basement price in the spring, for a one year contract.
If Bruce has another 720 OPS season, he's a 4th OF and the market will pay him as such.

One of the smartest things the Reds did was not to give Bruce that "lifetime contract" that he wanted maybe 4-5 years ago. It sure was tempting then. Thank God the Reds didn't do it.

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Originally Posted by REDREAD

Good lord, that's sheer insanity to offer Bruce an extension.
How about this, don't pick up Bruce's option. Wait him out. Unless he maintains this 800+ OPS for an entire year (which I doubt), he will be available at a bargain basement price in the spring, for a one year contract.
If Bruce has another 720 OPS season, he's a 4th OF and the market will pay him as such.

One of the smartest things the Reds did was not to give Bruce that "lifetime contract" that he wanted maybe 4-5 years ago. It sure was tempting then. Thank God the Reds didn't do it.

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Honestly, as bad as that LTD might have been, it'd be more attractive than any of the other albatross LTD's we currently have hanging from our collective necks.

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Originally Posted by kpresidente

Although imagine this blueprint for 2018: Bruce in RF, Jesse Winker in LF, Adam Duvall at 3B (his natural position), Eugenio Suarez at SS (his natural position) and Jose Peraza at 2B. Or something like that, maybe switch Peraza and Suarez. That’s a bargain-basement plan and not without flaws. But it’s a plan.

And it includes keeping Jay Bruce around from 2018-20. Say, at $43 million for 3 years.

I wouldn't have a problem with that. It also means we have a chance to be decent next year. It also just reiterates why we shouldn't have traded Frazier since a 2017 team with Frazier and Bruce could have a real shot and the only future sacrifice is Peraza > Blandino, which isn't much of a dropoff IMO.


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Lost me at "Suarez at SS". And even threw in "(his natural position)" to boot.

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Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Lost me at "Suarez at SS". And even threw in "(his natural position)" to boot.

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Suarez's natural position is "Hoping the NL gets the DH."

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Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski

Honestly, as bad as that LTD might have been, it'd be more attractive than any of the other albatross LTD's we currently have hanging from our collective necks.

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You know, other than the Votto, Bailey, BP and Mesoraco contracts, the Reds have done a nice job in this area.

Hey, we have to laugh to keep from crying. (I'm weeping inside though.)

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Originally Posted by Chuckie

Suarez's natural position is "Hoping the NL gets the DH."

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Now come on, how bad a defender can he be if he once played shortstop? Like Kevin Mitchell did?

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Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski

Honestly, as bad as that LTD might have been, it'd be more attractive than any of the other albatross LTD's we currently have hanging from our collective necks.

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I'd rather have the current Homer and Votto contracts than a lifetime Contract for Bruce now.
I'm assuming that it would've been at least 15 million (probably closer to 20 million) a year to extend Bruce to a lifetime contract, because he actually was an awesome player back then.
Votto will be fine longterm.
I have a lot more hope of Homer bouncing back from TJ than I do of Bruce sustaining production above replacement level.


I don't see Phillips' contract as an albotross.. We debate whether it's good or bad, but only 2 seasons left and the Reds realistically have no chance of being competitive before BP's deal is up.

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Originally Posted by REDREAD

I don't see Phillips' contract as an albotross.. We debate whether it's good or bad, but only 2 seasons left and the Reds realistically have no chance of being competitive before BP's deal is up.

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I'm still hoping he gets his numbers up and changes his mind about a trade. I mean he can't want to play for this mess. Can he?

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Originally Posted by Chuckie

Suarez's natural position is "Hoping the NL gets the DH."

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I'm sure that was tongue in cheek, but it's still unfair. He's clearly still learning the position. But he's certainly got the tools and upside to be an above average defender at third. He needs reps and time.

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Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Lost me at "Suarez at SS". And even threw in "(his natural position)" to boot.

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For the record, I didn't write it. I wouldn't put Suarez at SS, either, but OTOH he's just as bad at 3B. I'd play Peraza at SS and hope for Blandino at 2B. Suarez could be a utility infielder.


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Originally Posted by REDREAD

Good lord, that's sheer insanity to offer Bruce an extension.

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Not at 3 years $43M. There's basically no risk once you have to look at the alternative use of the money, which in our case means straight into the Williams family pockets. So even if he sucks I, as a fan, break even. The payoff is he plays well, contributes to maybe not having a record setting awful team in the upcoming seasons, and buys time for them to find a real RF of the future which we currently have zip in the system.



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Originally Posted by kpresidente

Not at 3 years $43M. There's basically no risk once you have to look at the alternative use of the money, which in our case means straight into the Williams family pockets. So even if he sucks I, as a fan, break even. The payoff is he plays well, contributes to maybe not having a record setting awful team in the upcoming seasons, and buys time for them to find a real RF of the future which we currently have zip in the system.



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Basically nobody cares less about "payflex" than I do, but buying our way out of the bullpen problem with the money and starting Duvall/Billy/Winker should at least be on the table.

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Originally Posted by swaisuc

Basically nobody cares less about "payflex" than I do, but buying our way out of the bullpen problem with the money and starting Duvall/Billy/Winker should at least be on the table.

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Yeah but it doesn't preclude anything with the bullpen. They can still add from the market if they want, after all, the guy isn't saying add payroll, just pay Bruce what he's making now. Mostly I just want a real RF, doesn't have to be Bruce, but that kind of short-term deal is hard to come by. Get Winker in LF, get Duvall to 3B, and get Suarez somewhere else. That's what I like. If you go Duvall in LF, Winker in RF, and Suarez at 3B you just have mediocrity everywhere. Duvall is a nice hitter for a 3B but nothing special for a LF. Winker could be a good hitter but playing out of position I fear he might give back some of that offensive value with the glove. And Suarez gives back all of his offensive value no matter what. I don't want that situation to settle in. With Bruce on a short term deal we get those guys where they can maximize their value and everybody knows we still have a glaring need for a RF of the future. Hopefully you find that guy and Bruce can be seen as a bridge.


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Originally Posted by Rojo

I'm still hoping he gets his numbers up and changes his mind about a trade. I mean he can't want to play for this mess. Can he?

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I'm pretty sure Phillips knew this year would be a mess.
I think the odds of him ever approved a trade are zero.. If he wouldn't accept for Dusty/Nats, I can't see him accepting anywhere.

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Originally Posted by kpresidente

Not at 3 years $43M. There's basically no risk once you have to look at the alternative use of the money, which in our case means straight into the Williams family pockets. So even if he sucks I, as a fan, break even. The payoff is he plays well, contributes to maybe not having a record setting awful team in the upcoming seasons, and buys time for them to find a real RF of the future which we currently have zip in the system.

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Cast has shown the willingness to spend money when the team is winning. For example, most people on the board considered Broxton a waste of money, etc, yet Cast was still willing to write the check.

Yes, this season has been extreme cost cutting, which I did not really agree with. I mean, come on.. they claim they could only sign relievers for 2 million or less..
But they seem to be buying into the whole new fad of "If you are going to be a non-contender, might as well lose 100 games".

Anyhow, it's not a good idea to give a guy like Bruce an extension. if nothing else, that money can be used to lock in players as they reach arbitration.
Eventually the team will spend money again, and I don't want Bruce on the payroll when that happens.

Also, by your logic, there is no need to extend Bruce, just pick up his option for next year, if you really want him back.

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Originally Posted by Chuckie

You know, other than the Votto, Bailey, BP and Mesoraco contracts, the Reds have done a nice job in this area.

Hey, we have to laugh to keep from crying. (I'm weeping inside though.)

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The BP ltd has been fine. He has barely spent any time on the DL and has been a pretty productive 2b.

Does the Mesoraco deal count as an ltd? They just bought out his arbitration years and it was only like $50 mil, iirc.

You are jumping off the Votto ship after two bad months?

Bailey looks bad, pitchers arms blow up.

Giants are looking for an OF. Okrent is 24 y.o. lefty K-artist who's already seen some big-league innings. Austin Slater is an OF/2b raking in AA.

Moustakas out for the season with a torn ACL. Bruce could replace his pop in the lineup

I could see a Bruce trade happening soon with either the Royals or Giants. We know their systems well after trading with them last year, and June is around the corner to avoid Super 2 status. Here's my ideas:

1) Bruce and Hamilton to KC- KC gets some lefty pop to replace Moose, and Gordon, and can DH. Hamilton gives them a speedy 4th OF and Gold Glove CF, but ho hum hitter.

--Reds get a) Jorge Bonifacio OF(AAA) #16 prospect
b) Ryan O'Hearn 1b/OF(AA) # 13 Prospect
c) Brooks Pounders RHRP(AAA) #29 Prospect

2) Bruce and 1million(option year buyout) to SF- Bruce helps add depth to a strong Giants team, and provide a rental option to spell Pence.

---Reds get a) Steve Okert LHRP(AAA) #16 prospect
b) Austin Slater 2B (AA) # 20 prospect

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Originally Posted by Redus

Moustakas out for the season with a torn ACL. Bruce could replace his pop in the lineup

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But if the Royals make a major move for a bat now, won't it have to be a third baseman?

We think Jay is bad in RF. Can you imagine him at third? ;)

If I'm the Reds I'd try and sell them Suarez and Bruce in a package for Zimmer, Starling and Dozier. Though that's a bit pie in the sky.

Still, targeting Dozier would be great.