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Lowe is about to be 31. CES is 26. That can influence. Plus every GM thinks they win every transaction and have the guys to "fix" a player. I imagine if he gets claimed you are correct and it's a minor league assignment. But I also think the claiming team would have an eye on a guy like Rooker and think I can get my Rooker two years sooner.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Ray
Batting Practice hitter in the endQuote:
Originally Posted by TRF
Attachment 23706
Not going to miss CES. Waste of a roster spot IMO.
Scoring change from last night's game removes the error. Rightfully so. That was a ridiculous, confusing call.
The error-free streak continues
CES has 2 BB to 14 SO in AAA this year the writing was on the wall especially with so many other guys on that team hitting well.
It has been 11 games, the Nationals are currently the 3rd best hitting team in all of baseball. It is way to early to be thinking what things look like now will be how they remain.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
If the Reds stay at the bottom of the league in offense the issue is much larger then Hayes and over the course of the season playing Lowe isn't going to do enough to improve that.
They're not going to hold teams to 2 runs or less every game so at some point they'll need to score more runs. It's working now because the pitching staff has a 152 ERA+.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
While I agree the issue is larger than just Hayes, he is a contributing factor in the horrible offense and his last two years indicate he will continue to be horrible. At some point soon, more offense will be needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
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Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that would make you think that Hayes should be replaced? Let’s say June 1st arrives, and he still has a sub 600 ops.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
At game 11 when the team is 8-3 no, I don't see any need to replace him. Especially when 8 other guys on the team are currently at sub .600 ops just to use your number.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
If June 1st arrives and the team still has a winning record and Hayes is sub .600 but is playing his usual GG defense at 3B no I don't see any reason to replace him.
If June 1st comes around and they are struggling to win games and are below .500 then I would look at it but again I do not think there is one guy on the team that will replace him and make up for the ineptitude of the offense if the whole team is still struggling like they are today. Again he would at least be providing solid defense where a guy like Friedl is giving average or below defense and not hitting.
If you believe in some small-sample Bbref oWAR, Marte, Friedl, and Steer have actually been worse than Hayes.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
I think in this case, worse is probably too kind a word. Worser maybe? Worstest?
Only Stewart, Elly, and somehow McLain have oWARs above 0.0. Nearly the whole team is playing offense at a sub-replacement level and we’re 8-3.
It might be a fun season by the time it’s all said and done.
I've been wanting to replace Hayes with Lowe the minute Lowe was signed, it has nothing to do with the team's start, it has to do with Hayes' last two seasons.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfan9988
- - - Updated - - -
I'm not, and have not said that replacing Hayes fixes the entire offense, but every little bit helps (and a 40% difference isn't a little thing)Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
The thing is he was not brought here for his offense, he was brought in for defense and so far the team has benefitted from it. The entire team is playing better defense, not saying that is all because of Hayes but that was their plan and it is working.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
There were a lot of players that were being counted on for their offense though and those are the guys who are not getting it done. Their plan was to build the team with enough offense to make up for Hayes bat and that hasn't happened, that is where they need to start in my opinion. I blame it on the front office and Tito for going with the "these guys who were bad last year will magically be better this year" approach but putting Lowe in for Hayes isn't going to matter if no one else on the team can hit.
It looks like he is going to get A LOT of opportunities in the comming days... Who had PJ on their Bingo card?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
There are definitely more problems than Hayes. But Hayes is going to be a problem for the next 4 years. I'd be very happy if he was gone and that wasn't hanging over the franchise. They can stick Suarez at 3B and Lowe at DH and I think they'd come out ahead. Writing off any production at a position for a year is a problem. Committing to it for 4 years is lunacy.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
They definitely have other stuff to address. The OF is a mess. They have more scrubs out there than a hospital emergency room. Benson has been a scrub the last two years yet the Reds chose to keep him as part of the solution. Bleday and Myers are both scrubs who last year combined for -0.1 WAR. Freidl looks like a guy in decline. Steer is meh when he's playing position he can play and worse than meh when he's playing one he can't. Dunn is an aging minor leaguer. Hinds has a ton of swing and miss in his game.
I hope Friedl can bounce back and provide a solid on base presence. Besides him, there isn't one OF on the roster that I have even a little optimism about. The best they can do is use them all the best they can, but playing Marte vs LHP isn't doing that.
Hayes isn't the only problem, but he the costliest problem, the longest-term problem and a problem that the Reds have an immediate answer for.
If the answer you are looking for is what can they do to both be worse on defense and still be a terrible offensive team, then yeah I guess go ahead and swap Lowe in at DH and move Suarez to 3B.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
I am pretty sure it isn't going to solve any of the bigger issues that the team has on offense though and will end with needing to score more runs because the defense will take a hit which will in the end effect the pitching.
I would argue that Hayes isn't the costliest problem as he is doing exactly what he is on the team to do, the costliest problems are the guys who are on the team to provide offense and are not doing so.
Right now Hayes is OPSing under .300 -- obviously a lot of guys are struggling, but he's not really showing any signs of life. So naturally you wonder -- how much of it is the back issue, how much is it the good pitchers we've seen? None of us really know what's going on. Is it flaring up and he should be IR'd? Or is it getting progressively worse, and even a .600 OPS might be wishful thinking at this point? Or is it relatively OK -- and what exactly is "OK" for him at this point?
Especially with the opportunity cost of keeping Lowe out of the lineup (not to mention Geno's stated discomfort with DHing), I wonder how much rope they give Hayes. If he's OPSing under .500 by the end of April, I'm guessing the team is forced to pull the plug. At least IR him?
My hunch is he basically has a career-ending injury, just a... very slow rolling one. And I think the Reds are kind of in denial about it, for obvious reasons.
I think the increase in run value you'd get from Lowe on offense will be more than the negative impact on defense. Suarez isn't Marte. He was just a tick below average over there. You don't have to have the best defender in the game to win. You have to have the best overall production. Lowe would balance the line-up a little without having to force it as much as the Reds do.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
Last year, Suarez defense was -0.7 Runs below average. Hayes was 19.3 Run Above average. That's a 20 run loss on the defensive side. Hayes was worth -24.6 Runs vs average on offense. All Lowe would need to be is average to gain 0.5 WAR. Prior to 2025 he was a lot better than that. If he is say 10 runs above average (very doable IMO) you gain 1.5 Wins. That's like upgrading a run of the mill starting player to an All Star player.
No problem with Hayes on the team, his defense is helpful. He’s just starting too many games, they should use him as a defensive replacement more often. That can easily be adjusted and maybe it will be. I don’t see it as all or nothing with him.
Steer OTOH should be moved to bench if his bat doesn’t get going very soon. He doesn’t compensate defensively. Marte hasn’t had enough chances but he needs to hit more too.
Rece Hinds wasn’t in the Bats lineup last two games, some rumors he may be coming up to Reds, not confirmed, if so we’ll see what else changes.
I agree, I think Hayes should be the UI. I'm sure he's fine enough in MI to do that. That way if his back allows him to hit better than a pitcher, it's a nice bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Steer I think they'll give more rope to turn his bat around. He's not anything great as an OF defender, but not atrocious like Lux was. Savant says he has a pretty good arm, I wonder how he'd do in RF if they got the speedy Hinds (or Marte I suppose) in CF, and moved Friedl to LF?
From the Louisville broadcaster:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Quote:
Pre-game radio broadcast for Louisville, Nick Curran mentioned that Rece Hinds is out of the lineup as he deals with a “personal family situation”. Just figured I’d drop that info in here real quick.
Hayes should change his number to a bullseye
Kind of happens when you have a sub 600 OPS over the last two years plus.Quote:
Originally Posted by westofyou
Trevino on IL, Reds bring up Higgins as backup catcher, CES was DFA’d to open the forty man roster spot.
How 'bout if we give Hayes a day off? I'd settle for that at this point. Suarez wants to play in the field Give him a game or two at 3B
R'Zoners love talking about Ke'Bryan Hayes.
Hahaha !!!Quote:
Originally Posted by westofyou
Hayes has started 9 of 11 at 3B and Suarez has started 2 games at 3B, so this is exactly what they are doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Ray
It’s been ruled that McLain does not get an error on the obstruction play called last night. So Reds now have an 11 game errorless streak to begin the season. Apparently the base runner was given a stolen base on the play.
Hey that's great news. I didn't like calling that an error last nightQuote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Instead of calling Hayes Bullseye, I think the name Misfire is more suitable
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If it’s obstruction, it’s an error. That, I understand is the rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Ray
So, I’d speculate, they decided today to call it a stolen base - realizing that there was no obstruction and it was unfair to charge MM with an error. My guess.
I never liked the month of April. Bad, unpredictable weather for one thing. As long as you don't dig yourself a huge hole, I don't make judgments on a team/player's performance too much. I think some of these key players will heat up once the weather does.Quote:
Originally Posted by LiferJim
Well, maybe, but I don’t think “let’s just wait and see” is the right approach — there’s reason for concern and Reds should be thinking about how they might improve things going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by GAC
Last year Reds were 25th in position player fWAR, 24th in wRC+, 19th in OPS.
So far this year Reds are 29th in fWAR, 30th in wRC+, 26th in OPS.
I have no doubt that Reds position group will improve from the current depths. But it would be hard to convince a neutral observer that the Reds position group is in the league average range to support a superior pitching staff. It’s not Defcon 1 but it’s also not Defcon 5.
To be fair with the exception of Suarez and Lowe this is the same position group that was 25th in player fWAR, 24th in wRC+, 19th in OPS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
I hoped that guys would improve and or have bounce back years but I think it is strange that people are surprised how bad the offense is when they showed who they were last year.
With that said it is April 9th and pitchers are usually ahead of batters early in the season and the Reds have faced some really good pitching early. I am not panicking or thinking there needs to be tons of changes yet but I also am not expecting this position group to be a whole lot better then what they were last year.
Tomorrow’s (Friday) game is on Apple TV only.
No sports team is fixed and unchangeable in the first month. If it turns out they miscalculated and a major area isn’t working, Reds have to focus on that and be ready to make changes. All I would ask at this point is Reds focus on the possibility that their position group is well below average. They need to be thinking about ways to try and fix that.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
Yes. I know it’s only been 12 games, but hopefully changes are coming soon. I’m sure some of the guys will improve, but not all of them and it seems pretty clear which ones are who they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
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That is the issue with being a Reds fan though, they won't spend the money to fix the issue and they don't bring in front office people who are capable of fixing the issue on the limited budget they have.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
They have gone with the hope and should plan a lot of these hitters for the last few years and it continues to result in the same thing. I go back to Tito's comments about Hayes saying they know his bat is weak so they need to make sure to put enough offense around him to make up for it and they felt they had done that. The offense in question is basically the same offense as last year so start there with the mindset of the Reds and temper your expectations for how much change there will be.
Reds players have between 30-60 PA's so far this season, they have played four teams in three different cities, in domed stadiums with the roof opened and closed and it's the ninth of April. I haven't seen enough to decide if the Reds plan will work or fail miserably.
Many players look off (Marte's swing is garbage is an example) but baseball is a long game and 7.4% of a season is anything but, expect small moves before large ones is my advice