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The starter the Reds will go after will be inexpensive. In other words, rule out a free agent, rule out multiple years. The Reds simply won’t pursue a high-dollar starter. It’s not happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
However, because the Reds will nibble at the margins of spending vis. position players, I can see a short deal for a bat. But I’d want someone a little more substantial than Candelrio.
There's 0 reason they can't do both and if they sign a FA like Candelario it frees up trading an IF for SP which will almost assuredly happen if they sign an IF. The SP FA market is going to be too much for Krall and co. IMO. They will work the trade market for a pre arb SP.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
I think the Reds will land a bat and a RP or two in FA, and even though they could afford a good SP I think they'll chicken out and go the trade route.
Yep, we already know what Krall is going to say when Spring training starts.. He looked around, talked to everyone, but by-golly, young pitching that is controllable and is above average is so darn expensive. Then he'll go on about how great the 5 young guys in the rotation are, and he couldn't find anyone that was an upgrade at a reasonable price. Because we can't risk trading away a few low minors ball guys to try to actually win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
If they don't get a starter, the rest won't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
They’re not going to sign any of the meaningful starters.
Even Eduardo Rodriguez will be out of the Reds’ price range.
Candelario would be fine but he won’t be worth 2/$30MM or whatever.
I still see them trading India or Fraley along with a prospect or two for a SP, and looking for the next Drury/Candelario to boost the bench on offense.
That trade seems like a very reasonable prediction. It would allow Reds to put Steer in LF (rather than Fraley in OF). If they got Candelaria, he could play some DH with his switch hit bat. Helps Reds have L/R balance. Makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitri
Just to add, I looked over Spotrac’s 2024 Reds’ payroll page, and they have incredibly little payroll on the books. Especially if they trade off or non-tender some of the arb guys like Senzel, India, Fraley, Alex Young (estimated at $1.7M).
Perhaps the group here, myself included, is underestimating the Reds’ attitude toward free agency.
I won’t fence with you all about what the exact amounts are, you can look at Spotrac’s page yourself, but it’s not a major league payroll number. They almost have to do something to suggest to fans and MLB it’s a big league professional ballclub.
In a world where ownership had some integrity, yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
But we have PhilC as the owner.
It's a lot more likely he's thinking "2 million people came to see the kids last year, ratings were way up, let's just do the same thing in 2024. If it's not broke, don't fix it".
I didn’t say they wouldn’t get a starter. I said he wouldn’t be expensive.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
No they don't, last year's trade deadline proved that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
All I know is that I hope the board can talk itself in to Erick Fedde and Lance Lynn - cuz that’s the pool in which we’ll be fishing this off-season… I mean… they’ll eat innings.
To play devil’s advocate - free agency isn’t available at the trade deadline.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinsm
They didn’t want to trade young guys at the deadline. Now they have the option of buying pitching with dollars.
I feel like the decision not to add at the deadline was a Krall decision. He doesn’t want to sacrifice the prospect equity he’s built up over the last few years. I get that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Free agency will be a Castellini decision. I think the Reds will be active and sign multiple players. A reliever or two (Hector Neris anyone?), a cheap innings-eating veteran SP, and maybe a RH OF bat. I could see them doling out $40MM in 2023 money - but these aren’t gonna be long-term deals. My guess is that a $30MM guarantee is the highest the Reds will go for any one player. That takes them out of the running for the top 30 or so free agents.
Well, Fedde was once a highly touted prospect, and he just won the Korean version of the Cy Young award.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfan9988
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They might grab a reliever through FA. But what kind of starter can the Reds actually get for $12-15 million a season max? Probably less than that. That’s Mike Minor territory. Might as well just trade the kids for a talented controllable arm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
In order for the Reds to swim in the adult FA pool, they’ll have to pony up $25 million a season or more. That’s not going to happen.