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The only way the Reds don’t go all in and sign several big free agents is if they determine that the market will actually be better at the 2024 trade deadline. Then the Reds will be guaranteed to acquire several big trade pieces unless they determine that the free agent market will be better in the 2024 winter offseason. Either way, the Reds are guaranteed to build a contender so the fans who have criticized the front office can go ahead and start eating crow now.
I think Reds might spend the $25 million on a good pitcher for a year or two. The problem is the long term commitment, which I doubt they’ll make.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
But overall, stepping back, this is a .500+ W-L team with lots of “cap space.” There really is no excuse if they fail to make significant additions. I’ve noted before that all the rhetoric is about building with youth from within. But if they wind up with a $40 million payroll and little or no improvement it will be unfortunate.
Of course there’s no excuse. There’s been no excuse for 30 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
I'm not overly impressed with the FA crop this year. Lots of mediocre guys are gonna cash in this FA period and I would prefer the Reds do their due diligence. If they feel the best route to young, controllable starting pitching is through the trade route, signing an INF and trading from the pool of young talented guys like Marte, CES, or God forbid McClain or EDLC makes sense because that's going to bring back the best return. It's a double edge sword for sure.
I am of the small camp that thinks they already have the SP and should go after BP arms. It's much cheaper and less years of commitment. Find a guy who you can count on for 4-5 innings / spot start. It helps the entire pitching staff having that guy both as emergency depth and a longish arm for bullpen days. We saw how much Bell had to rely on just a few dependable BP guys last year and I'm surprised their arms are still attached to their bodies. We need a LH late innings guy that can occasionally shut down games so Diaz isn't gassed by August as well. These are much easier to find than controllable Starting pitching, without Krall trading off any of his precious prospects, or at least any of the higher rates ones.
Money aside, won’t it be difficult to sign any free agent pitcher because of Great American Ballpark?
Not wanting to pitch at GAB is really agent code for "Everyone else offered a long-term contract while you only offered 2 years, so I didn't call you back."Quote:
Originally Posted by goreds2
Yeah man… GABP didn’t seem to adversely affect the 2012 Reds, who posted league-crushing pitching numbers. I think it’s got much more to do with the quality of the pitching than the dimensions of the ballpark. But that’s just me.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelSD
OK. If they don't get a playoff caliber starter, the rest doesn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Happy first post.Quote:
Originally Posted by The D.O.Z.
Wouldn't mind that approach. The next wave of starters (Phillips, Richardson, Stoudt, Spiers) didn't look great but there are reasons to believe Phillips and Richardson can be better in 2024. Between that group and the FA bulk guy you are referring to, they should be able to competently cover the starter's innings.Quote:
Originally Posted by The D.O.Z.
Im with you. A really good starter would be nice, but I think they have the horses to field a starting staff with some minor to moderate additions. Start with adding to the pen. Shorter the game. Find 2 guys to pair with Diaz and make nasty boys 2.0. Find a way to add a solid veteran bat to the lineup too. If a deal falls into your lap for a starter, do it, but my pitching approach would be pen first.Quote:
Originally Posted by The D.O.Z.
I think there are clear tiers in terms of pitching production-- particularly starter production. But the tiers are as full with choices as perhaps ever have been. That should, in theory, drive prices down, not up. I've got 34 pitchers who are interesting enough to sign and should improve the team's chances at competing for a pennant, if only through depth.Quote:
Originally Posted by The D.O.Z.
TOR #1/2 guys (Projected fWAR over 2.5):
- Shohei Ohtani
- Marcus Stroman
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Julio Urias
- Aaron Nola
- Blake Snell
- Jordan Montgomery
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Sonny Gray
This is the group the Reds should be shopping at, but likely won't. Most are coming off solid to outstanding seasons or post-seasons. Most will command serious coin and long term committments-- which the Reds can absolutely afford. If the Reds can acquire one of these, they likely can compete for the NL Central pennant with the offense as is. (The pen would still need a couple arms.) The rotation could settle in behind them fairly nicely (though there still would have to be some development).
MOR Guys (fWAR 2.0 - 2.5):
- Lance Lynn
- Lucas Giolito
- James Paxton
- Seth Lugo
- Kyle Gibson
- Kenta Maeda
- Sean Manaea
- Shoto Imanaga
Most of these guys would head the Red starting rotation, but have either durability questions or their stuff isn't quite top shelf. Some are dependable innings eaters, which makes them all the more enticing (even if ERAs aren't as shiny). This is the group wherein the Reds would assume one of their current young guys develops into an ace (and another becomes a solid #3).
Quality innings eaters or guys with upside (Projected fWAR 1.5 - 2.0):
- Hyun Jin Ryu
- Frankie Montas
- Michael Wacha
- Jack Flaherty
- Luis Severino
- Colin Rea
- Nick Martinez
- Mike Clevinger
- Wade Miley
- Michael Lorenzen
- Domingo German
- Carlos Carrasco
- Jakob Junis
- Alex Wood
- Naoyuki Uwasawa
This is where the Reds have almost always previously shopped for aces. They tend to look for bounce-back candidates and cheaper alternatives-- gambles that might pay off. Sometimes, they do. (Wade Miley says hi.) Sometimes, they don't. (Mike Minor, Brandon Claussen, and Paul Wilson... oh, my.) A smart team might gamble on Ryu, who's been outstanding when healthy. They might promise Nick Martinex or Jakob Junis a shot at a starting berth, knowing they can also relieve at fairly high levels. These are depth signings that would do little to help the team compete beyond being adequate innings eaters-- unless they hit it big. If the Reds sign one of these guys, it'll be because they're banking on two of their guys developing into TOR starters.
You've also got previously injured guys who might be prescient signings (Tyler Mahle, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi)-- or at least guys who you could rightly gamble on. This is the type of gamble the Reds make most seasons-- though with lesser names. I'd be fine with offering one of this type a major league roster spot and hope at a rotation slot-- if they show they're healthy and ready to go out of the gate. Otherwise, I'd wait to grab AAAA depth arms similar to Ben Lively.
I'd prefer they shop at the highest end, offering years and AAV for a possible ace. If they balk at those prices, I'd (much) prefer they drop to the second tier to get someone of that ilk. A Red rotation with Giolito (for example), Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Abbott has upside aplenty and three guys who've shown some semblance of pitching fairly deep into games. It also saves Phillips, Richardson, and Spiers (not to mention those behind them) for relief or depth help. They can develop before being thrown into the fire.
Bob Nightengale in USA Today
Attachment 20540
Thanks for the info.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
1. Nothing too surprising. I wonder if this is Nightengale expecting his based on the information we have all seen, or on inside information he has access to.
2. I have no problem with any of this, though much depends on what they get for India, and hopefully this is not a complete list.
This only makes sense if the India trade brings back somerthing meaningful (which means adding a prospect or two). Wacha or Miley arent going to move the needle on W/L.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690