Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bing
This only makes sense if the India trade brings back somerthing meaningful (which means adding a prospect or two). Wacha or Miley arent going to move the needle on W/L.
Agree on the India point, disagree on the Wacha/Miley point.
Adding 120+ innings of around a 3 ERA to the pitching staff should add more wins.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MoneyInTheBank
Wouldn't mind that approach. The next wave of starters (Phillips, Richardson, Stoudt, Spiers) didn't look great but there are reasons to believe Phillips and Richardson can be better in 2024. Between that group and the FA bulk guy you are referring to, they should be able to competently cover the starter's innings.
I'm pretty high on Phillips, Lowder, and Petty and I think it's one of the best 1-3 SP prospect groups the Reds have had in a while. Phillips was rushed last year because of cheap ownership, but still missed a lot of bats against MLB hitters as a 22 year old. Give him a while to iron out the kinks and I think he'll be a fine SP. Lowder is about the most polished college SP you could find. I think people are sleeping on him as 2024 option. He's easily better than than the Stoudt's and Spiers' of the world. Petty is a tailor made SP for GABP in the Cueto and Castillo mold, but is a few years away. Richardson is a BP guy IMO.
Yeah they need a vet SP for 2024, but I think the SP in the system is really strong. There's a pretty strong 4-10 behind Phillips, Lowder, and Petty. Some of those guys(Richardson and Floyd) may end up as high leverage RP.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
I don't know about Miley as a fit. He seemed pretty steamed that the Reds released him, and he's 37. The Reds already have 3 lefties in the rotation mix. I just don't see the fit. Wacha makes sense if the Reds refuse to go into the 20 million AAV range. I also wouldn't mind Nick Martinez who posted a 2.32 ERA in 9 starts last year. He could be a weapon as a swing man type who gets a dozen starts and several multi inning relief appearances.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
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Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
I think there are clear tiers in terms of pitching production-- particularly starter production. But the tiers are as full with choices as perhaps ever have been. That should, in theory, drive prices down, not up. I've got 34 pitchers who are interesting enough to sign and should improve the team's chances at competing for a pennant, if only through depth.
TOR #1/2 guys (Projected fWAR over 2.5):
- Shohei Ohtani
- Marcus Stroman
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Julio Urias
- Aaron Nola
- Blake Snell
- Jordan Montgomery
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Sonny Gray
This is the group the Reds should be shopping at, but likely won't. Most are coming off solid to outstanding seasons or post-seasons. Most will command serious coin and long term committments-- which the Reds can absolutely afford. If the Reds can acquire one of these, they likely can compete for the NL Central pennant with the offense as is. (The pen would still need a couple arms.) The rotation could settle in behind them fairly nicely (though there still would have to be some development).
MOR Guys (fWAR 2.0 - 2.5):
- Lance Lynn
- Lucas Giolito
- James Paxton
- Seth Lugo
- Kyle Gibson
- Kenta Maeda
- Sean Manaea
- Shoto Imanaga
Most of these guys would head the Red starting rotation, but have either durability questions or their stuff isn't quite top shelf. Some are dependable innings eaters, which makes them all the more enticing (even if ERAs aren't as shiny). This is the group wherein the Reds would assume one of their current young guys develops into an ace (and another becomes a solid #3).
Quality innings eaters or guys with upside (Projected fWAR 1.5 - 2.0):
- Hyun Jin Ryu
- Frankie Montas
- Michael Wacha
- Jack Flaherty
- Luis Severino
- Colin Rea
- Nick Martinez
- Mike Clevinger
- Wade Miley
- Michael Lorenzen
- Domingo German
- Carlos Carrasco
- Jakob Junis
- Alex Wood
- Naoyuki Uwasawa
This is where the Reds have almost always previously shopped for aces. They tend to look for bounce-back candidates and cheaper alternatives-- gambles that might pay off. Sometimes, they do. (Wade Miley says hi.) Sometimes, they don't. (Mike Minor, Brandon Claussen, and Paul Wilson... oh, my.) A smart team might gamble on Ryu, who's been outstanding when healthy. They might promise Nick Martinex or Jakob Junis a shot at a starting berth, knowing they can also relieve at fairly high levels. These are depth signings that would do little to help the team compete beyond being adequate innings eaters-- unless they hit it big. If the Reds sign one of these guys, it'll be because they're banking on two of their guys developing into TOR starters.
You've also got previously injured guys who might be prescient signings (Tyler Mahle, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi)-- or at least guys who you could rightly gamble on. This is the type of gamble the Reds make most seasons-- though with lesser names. I'd be fine with offering one of this type a major league roster spot and hope at a rotation slot-- if they show they're healthy and ready to go out of the gate. Otherwise, I'd wait to grab AAAA depth arms similar to Ben Lively.
I'd prefer they shop at the highest end, offering years and AAV for a possible ace. If they balk at those prices, I'd (much) prefer they drop to the second tier to get someone of that ilk. A Red rotation with Giolito (for example), Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Abbott has upside aplenty and three guys who've shown some semblance of pitching fairly deep into games. It also saves Phillips, Richardson, and Spiers (not to mention those behind them) for relief or depth help. They can develop before being thrown into the fire.
I appreciate the well thought out and researched post. Even that "top tier" list, aside from Ohtani of course, doesn't excite me one bit. I really do think we have the horses in-house and in-organization to cover a REALLY good rotation. But I'm banking on Abbott and Williamson taking "the next step". With the way baseball has changed with more reliance on BP and starters not going as deep into games (and Bell's penchant for not letting starters finish the fifth inning even on days the starter is pitching well) I just feel like having a great - elite BP would be the better move.
I wouldn't be mad if they traded one of their present rotation guys packaged with India for a bonafide upgrade either. And I wouldn't be mad if they stood pat and signed some Lively-type for that 6th starter / long relief / bullpen day guy as long as they fill in holes elsewhere and continue to develop Phillips, Richardson, and Stoudt.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
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Originally Posted by
SteelSD
Not wanting to pitch at GAB is really agent code for "Everyone else offered a long-term contract while you only offered 2 years, so I didn't call you back."
Agreed, and I would like to add.. "And if the Reds did offer my client a 3 year deal, he's going to be traded for prospects after 1.5 years".
That's secondary to $$ and years of course, but I think a lot of FAs want to pick a city/team and just stay there. They don't want to be shuffled to a random team at the deadline. But yea, the Reds could overcome that by offering better deals.
I'm still laughing about how the Reds pretended to put together an attractive offer to Otanhi when he was posted and actually got their propaganda machine going about it.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LeatherPants
That seems like a very Reds thing to do.. Cut salary with Senzel/India and then sign a guy like Wacha/Miley who should be relatively cheap.
I wouldn't mind Miley/Wacha, but they need to do a lot more than that.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
757690
Agree on the India point, disagree on the Wacha/Miley point.
Adding 120+ innings of around a 3 ERA to the pitching staff should add more wins.
Yeah to say Wacha or Miley wouldn’t have helped last season or this is crazy talk.
I think the rotation-by-bullpen approach should be used extremely sparingly. But the Reds went all in on that strategy for 2 months. And it cost the team.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
The D.O.Z.
I appreciate the well thought out and researched post. Even that "top tier" list, aside from Ohtani of course, doesn't excite me one bit. I really do think we have the horses in-house and in-organization to cover a REALLY good rotation. But I'm banking on Abbott and Williamson taking "the next step". With the way baseball has changed with more reliance on BP and starters not going as deep into games (and Bell's penchant for not letting starters finish the fifth inning even on days the starter is pitching well) I just feel like having a great - elite BP would be the better move.
I wouldn't be mad if they traded one of their present rotation guys packaged with India for a bonafide upgrade either. And I wouldn't be mad if they stood pat and signed some Lively-type for that 6th starter / long relief / bullpen day guy as long as they fill in holes elsewhere and continue to develop Phillips, Richardson, and Stoudt.
If Williamson and Abbott take "the next step," they'd be #2/3 SP, IMO-- not those who are post-season ride-or-die types. I disagree on the Red rotation-- I see it as currently well below average, but with enough upside pieces to keep most of it in place rather than blowing it up. I'm okay with four of those guys starting, in other words. That, in turn, strengthens the pen greatly, with Phillips, Richardson, and perhaps Spiers as relief arms at the major league level capable of going two or three innings behind a starter. That would allow them to baby Lodolo a bit-- or piggyback a couple of them to rest that overworked bullpen.
Too, we haven't discussed the pen at all, really. It needs (at least) one back-end guy. (Hader would be my top choice, for sure.)
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Falls City Beer
Yeah to say Wacha or Miley wouldn’t have helped last season or this is crazy talk.
I think the rotation-by-bullpen approach should be used extremely sparingly. But the Reds went all in on that strategy for 2 months. And it cost the team.
Of course it would help last year. I don't trust either of them to repeat. They are both regression candidates.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
What does everyone think about Alek Manoah as a change of scenery candidate? He was legit Cy Young #1 in 2022 and a total disaster in 2023, and will be going into his age 26 season with 4 years of control. The Reds should be familiar with him because he was drafted right after Lodolo so I imagine they scouted him in college. He had a big time problem with walks last year which is something he's never shown before. Is this a mechanical thing DJ and crew can work out? The Blue Jays are on that list of potential India suitors.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Joeyjection19
If the Reds could get Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, or Nick Frasso from the Dodgers for India, that's a heckuva trade, IMO. All three are live arms who could help in 2024 as relief options or depth starters. Ditto Bryan Woo, from the Mariners. Bryce Miller gives me BOR vibes, but maybe he's an innings eater. Emerson Hancock looks like Lucas Sims a bit.
That said, dealing India and other pieces for Chicago's Dylan Cease seems like the best bet. The White Sox aren't looking at competing any time soon and need both good players now and in the future. I'd think India, Cam Collier or Edwin Arroyo, one of SP prospects Petty or Phillips, and one of Blake Dunn or Rece Hinds would get the job done. That's a ton to pay, but it'd be pretty close to the Mat Latos deal.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
If the Reds could get Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, or Nick Frasso from the Dodgers for India, that's a heckuva trade, IMO. All three are live arms who could help in 2024 as relief options or depth starters. Ditto Bryan Woo, from the Mariners. Bryce Miller gives me BOR vibes, but maybe he's an innings eater. Emerson Hancock looks like Lucas Sims a bit.
That said, dealing India and other pieces for Chicago's Dylan Cease seems like the best bet. The White Sox aren't looking at competing any time soon and need both good players now and in the future. I'd think India, Cam Collier or Edwin Arroyo, one of SP prospects Petty or Phillips, and one of Blake Dunn or Rece Hinds would get the job done. That's a ton to pay, but it'd be pretty close to the Mat Latos deal.
Cease only has two years of control so a Latos type haul is a pretty big overpay. Trading for him is an all in move for 2024/25. I don't see Krall giving up top prospects for two years, and I wouldn't blame him for not doing it. India and Collier would be my max offer with maybe a lotto ticket thrown in. The Reds can't give up two top 5 caliber prospects, a borderline top 10, and India for a two year window with Cease who wasn't even that good in 2023.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bing
Of course it would help last year. I don't trust either of them to repeat. They are both regression candidates.
I think we undersell the impact of having another 140 inning starter (even if he’s not TOR) would have on this team’s fortunes. They ran out a bunch of dreck and raggedy bullpen arms last season and still managed to win 82 games. Obviously, for this team to be a serious threat next season, at least one of the Reds’ young starters will have to emerge as something resembling a TOR guy, but that has always been the case and will still be the case even if the Reds acquire a starter better than Wacha.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JCM11
I'm pretty high on Phillips, Lowder, and Petty and I think it's one of the best 1-3 SP prospect groups the Reds have had in a while. Phillips was rushed last year because of cheap ownership, but still missed a lot of bats against MLB hitters as a 22 year old. Give him a while to iron out the kinks and I think he'll be a fine SP. Lowder is about the most polished college SP you could find. I think people are sleeping on him as 2024 option. He's easily better than than the Stoudt's and Spiers' of the world. Petty is a tailor made SP for GABP in the Cueto and Castillo mold, but is a few years away. Richardson is a BP guy IMO.
Yeah they need a vet SP for 2024, but I think the SP in the system is really strong. There's a pretty strong 4-10 behind Phillips, Lowder, and Petty. Some of those guys(Richardson and Floyd) may end up as high leverage RP.
I hope you're right on Lowder contributing in 2024. I'm not quite so optimistic but very excited for 2025 and beyond.
