Yup. Counting on Miley and Wacha to repeat is akin to skiing moguls while wearing a nitroglycerin backpack.Quote:
Originally Posted by bing
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Yup. Counting on Miley and Wacha to repeat is akin to skiing moguls while wearing a nitroglycerin backpack.Quote:
Originally Posted by bing
That is what was said about both of them last year. And yet they repeated their success. MLB history is full of pitchers who continually outperform their peripherals.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelSD
I can understand some hesitation about Miley due to him being 37 next season, but Wacha will only be 32.
The Reds are in no position to count on pitchers like this. Wacha moved to one of the most extreme pitchers parks in the game last season, posted oulier-level low BABIP rates (which is the only time he ever looks good), outlier strand rates (@80%) over the last two years, and a HR rate that would absolutely balloon should he pitch at GAB. Miley's BABIP variance (.234) was even more of an outlier, saw a career high strand rate (81.6%) that was also well over MLB average, strikes out no one, and produced a 4.69 FIP. His results from the year before were similarly wonky in other ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Has nothing to do with age. Has everything to do with knowing that running around on high ground in a lightning storm with a weather vane isn't exactly the smartest way to avoid getting fried. The Reds need to stop targeting these types and use their now-plentiful resources to go after guys who profile like actual top-notch pitchers.
Couldn't agree more on Wacha and Miley. I beat the drums on here for Wacha two years ago when he was coming off a strong close to the 2021 season. All I heard was how much better Miley would be that year (2022), when Krall of course had the sense to pass him on to the Cubs. Wacha endorsers here are two years two late, plus he's a flyball pitcher who would be coming from the perfect park for him to one much less friendly. I suspect it is only because he knows this year is going to be a supreme seller's market for SP that he declined to continue with SD. On Miley, this is the year not to have him. He's been in an alternative year pattern for several years now, and he was good this year. That means he's a bad idea for next year. And given his age I suspect he's now longer a pitcher who should be on the Reds' screens at all. I'm a little puzzled why quite a few pundits on here always seem to want the team to get much older: bring in Farmer, bring back Castellanos, bring back Miley. I won't be surprised when the bring back Jessie Winker calls begin.
Both are ground ball pitchers who have found continued success inducing weak contact. Those are exactly the kind of pitchers the Reds should be focusing on.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelSD
Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Tom Browning, and others have shown that pitchers who know how to pitch can have continued success, even when their peripherals say they shouldn’t. This is when scouting needs to be combined with stat analysis.
That said, I do agree that GABP would have an effect on them, but that would be true for every pitcher. Being ground ball, weak contact pitchers, that effect is likely to be less for them than for fly ball pitchers.
You can never tell with Bob Nightengale, he might break the news on a story once in a blue moon but most of the time he's basically repeating what others have reported or just speculating without real inside information..Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
No. Wacha is absolutely not a ground ball pitcher. Of the 127 MLB pitchers with 100 or more IP last season, Wacha ranked 113th. He's was a fly ball pitcher. Miley was better- ranking 32nd- but he's never been able to consistently replicate low BABIP results, evidenced by his career BABIP of .299. You don't even really have case with the other hurlers you've cited, and please stop with the "scouting" stuff until you actually become one. Until then, it's just noise.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Look at Wacha’s career numbers. He’s been a ground ball pitcher his entire career. Last year, he was more of a fly ball pitcher for the first time, most likely a decision based on the stadium he was pitching in.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelSD
Again, both pitchers were not expected to repeat their past success last year, and yet they did. They have done that most o their careers. Relying only on stats is how these mistaken projections are made.
Tom Browning was an extreme flyball pitcher. His career gb/fb ratio was .52, against a league average of .81. His whole genius as a pitcher was to be able to get right handed hitters out with stuff up and outside that they hit in the air but too high to carry out of the park. The park, by the way, was Riverfront, not GABP.
"Michael Wacha used to be a ground ball pitcher who doesn't throw ground balls anymore" isn't exactly the win you think it is. And you don't have any scouting experience, so you're really adding nothing by continuing down that path.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Target actual good pitchers. Stop dumpster diving and relying on improbable outcomes.
Wacha hasn’t been a GB pitcher since 2019. I don’t think Reds will spend money on pitchers like Miley and Wacha. I think they’ll trade for someone with more of a future. Reds are looking for a window of a number of years.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If they can swing a high end starter like they did with Bauer and Gray, they’ll do it, but otherwise I envision a younger pitcher with projection remaining. Probably in a trade.
Even if Wacha and Miley pitch to their peripherals, they will provide 4-4.5 ERA over 100+ innings. That’s a huge improvement over the back of the rotation for the Reds, and better than most #4 or 5 starters.
It’s a third place move. Hopefully Reds will think bigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
In isolation, yes, it’s not that impressive. But I am rather positive that if they Reds sign either of them, it won’t be the Reds only addition to the pitching staff this offseason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
The more significant consideration is what pitchers Reds might acquire who WOULD be impressive.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If they’re going to become a 90 win team that’s what they need.
We’ve seen moves “not that impressive” for too long.