ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

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Originally Posted by TampaBengal

And, I can tell you are one of those "well if you just removed his two 4 ER starts and his 7 ER start, his era in the other games is 2.8." kinda guys

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I can tell you're a "brave truth teller" who signed up because he had to tell everyone how he just knows the 18-year-old is a bust because he can read numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/PUTCSGF.png

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Originally Posted by Tom Servo

I can tell you're a "brave truth teller" who signed up because he had to tell everyone how he just knows the 18-year-old is a bust because he can read numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/PUTCSGF.png

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LOl. Nahh, just a fan who has seen the last 3-4#1 overall org prospects (Before Senzel) all become single dimensional, flawed players/busts.

Mes
Hamilton
Stephenson
WInker

0 for 4.

But, I bet you can't wait to tell me that if you subtract Billys 0-5 PA games (It's only 15% of his games!) His BA and OBP each skyrocket up to .288 and .339 respectively. You seem like a big numbers guy when it's convenient for your straw man argument, ha.

And again, you cant answer my question.

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Originally Posted by TampaBengal

LOl. Nahh, just a fan who has seen the last 3-4#1 overall org prospects (Before Senzel) all become single dimensional, flawed players/busts.

Mes
Hamilton
Stephenson
WInker

0 for 4.

But, I bet you can't wait to tell me that if you subtract Billys 0-5 PA games (It's only 15% of his games!) His BA and OBP each skyrocket up to .288 and .339 respectively. You seem like a big numbers guy when it's convenient for your straw man argument, ha.

And again, you cant answer my question.

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Where is Mesoraco coming from all of a sudden? And when was Billy ever expected to be some great hitter? I was never his biggest fans and have been one of his biggest detractors on here for years, rando.

The question was what, why should you have any confidence in the prospects? I don't give a crap what you have confidence in. I believe that talent ultimately rises to the top. I don't know what's going to happen with Hunter Greene, but I'm not a moron who thinks the first 9.2 innings he pitched in A Ball tell me anything, let alone everything, I need to know.

Baseball is hard.

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Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Where is Mesoraco coming from all of a sudden? And when was Billy ever expected to be some great hitter? I was never his biggest fans and have been one of his biggest detractors on here for years, rando.

The question was what, why should you have any confidence in the prospects? I don't give a crap what you have confidence in. I believe that talent ultimately rises to the top. I don't know what's going to happen with Hunter Greene, but I'm not a moron who thinks the first 9.2 innings he pitched in A Ball tell me anything, let alone everything, I need to know.

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I have read your posts on here. You may want to reconsider on that moron label. Just sayin'

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

Baseball is hard.

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More-so for the Reds over the last 20+ years

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

Baseball is hard.

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But pays well :p

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Originally Posted by TampaBengal

The Reds top 3ish prospects in their entire org over the last 5-8 years are:

Billy
Stephenson
Winker

All three..massively flawed individual players (In multiple areas) that seemingly didn't develop or improve any of their lesser skills while in the minors.

How can anyone be confident that even players like Senz, Greene or India will ever shine in the majors? Green has a nearly 7 era, Senz hitting .260s w 790 ops

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You've only made a handful of posts on here. I don't know if you've followed this forum, but if you did, you'd find that when it came to our "prospects" and their development, the farm system, and pretty much a majority of the head-scratching decisions this organization has made over the last several years, there's a lot of questioning/criticism by the fans. You won't get much argument (LOL).

But you're way off base when it comes to Greene, or any 18 yr old prospect. We're talking a raw, inexperienced, immature kid here. Yeah, very talented; but from a physical standpoint, he's not done growing(filling out). He excelled at the previous level to draw recognition/notice. There's been a lot of hype around this kid who graced the cover of SI. Don't care. He's still a kid. He's now moved on to the next level (challenge). I find it pretty amazing that he's at the single A level, again at age 18, after such a brief, and not very successful, stay at Billings. It's new to him. There is going to be a period of adjustment. He's going to struggle, have his ups and downs.

It's just a pretty small window you're looking at right now. I might also add, the list is quite extensive of players who went on to pretty illustrious careers in the majors, yet their minor league numbers (careers) don't really stand out. Besides learning the game, there's also a lot of growing/maturity involved. You don't (rationally) form such a position of a kid in single A.

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Originally Posted by WrongVerb

Baseball is hard.

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That's what she said.

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Originally Posted by GAC

You've only made a handful of posts on here. I don't know if you've followed this forum, but if you did, you'd find that when it came to our "prospects" and their development, the farm system, and pretty much a majority of the head-scratching decisions this organization has made over the last several years, there's a lot of questioning/criticism by the fans. You won't get much argument (LOL).

But you're way off base when it comes to Greene, or any 18 yr old prospect. We're talking a raw, inexperienced, immature kid here. Yeah, very talented; but from a physical standpoint, he's not done growing(filling out). He excelled at the previous level to draw recognition/notice. There's been a lot of hype around this kid who graced the cover of SI. Don't care. He's still a kid. He's now moved on to the next level (challenge). I find it pretty amazing that he's at the single A level, again at age 18, after such a brief, and not very successful, stay at Billings. It's new to him. There is going to be a period of adjustment. He's going to struggle, have his ups and downs.

It's just a pretty small window you're looking at right now. I might also add, the list is quite extensive of players who went on to pretty illustrious careers in the majors, yet their minor league numbers (careers) don't really stand out. Besides learning the game, there's also a lot of growing/maturity involved. You don't (rationally) form such a position of a kid in single A.

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I think you can make a strong argument that anyone who is drafted that makes it to the Show is a success. Now the vast majority don't turn out to be superstars but you have to be very, very good to at least make it. Somebody like Tony Cruz is way better than some 28 year old guy still in AA. So much has to go right and so much can go wrong for these players who are drafted. I know this is an extreme example but someone like Josh Hamilton who had all the talent in the world fell in with a bad crowd in the minors and finally made it after almost dying. Maybe that's the organization's fault for not monitoring him that closely but no one could disagree he had all the talent to make it. Someone like Hunter Greene could trip over a gopher hole and land on his shoulder and that might be it for him. And you can say, "Geez, if we only drafted this guy instead of that guy." If your developmental process is flawed, neither guy may not make it. Some guys you probably can't screw up no matter how bad your developmental system is. Guys like Strasburg, Junior, Harper and Trout were all going to make it unless there was some unforseen catastrophe. I know guys like Bruce, Frazier, Leake, Mesoroco, Hamilton et. al. weren't the superstars we hoped they would be. But they have been or were regular players in the big leagues. That's cold comfort to us who were hoping for better but as Wrong Verb said, "Baseball is hard." The guys who get drafted aren't ready for the majors like the NFL and NBA guys are. The guys the Reds are drafting aren't some schlubs who wouldn't be taken by any other team. If the Reds aren't taking these guys, some other team does. If there is a problem, it isn't with drafting. Maybe it's development but that's an argument for another thread. The vast majority of these guys who are drafted are to stock the minor league teams. Obviously you hope some of the mid-lower round guys surprise you and make their way to the majors but those guys are few and far between.

Literally, the problem with recent Reds draft picks is that literally none have been on par with this one:

Congratulations to Patrick Bateman for the following post:

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Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

The biggest thing that stands out at me is, whatever scout that was chief on the Jeff Gelalich train, I sincerely hope is not heavily involved in the process anymore.

Every single other pick I understood the reasoning behind, to some degree. I didn’t necessarily agree with them, but I understood them.

The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesn’t need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesn’t need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).

As for the draft itself, I would suggest that excepting especially special talents the reds have faired better with the college picks. The reds developmental program has been poor for pitchers, and reducing the developmental time to the majors has appeared to bear more fruit.


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A Reds Hat with a link to this post has been added to your signature as a trophy!

I will post the next discussion topic later today. Thank you to all participants!

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Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Congratulations to Patrick Bateman for the following post:



A Reds Hat with a link to this post has been added to your signature as a trophy!

I will post the next discussion topic later today. Thank you to all participants!

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Congrats to Bateman.

The rest of us gets a box of Rica-A-Roni, the San Francisco treat.

Was hoping you guys would change it from "Redszone" to "BatemanZone" if I won, but I will take what I can get!

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Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

Was hoping you guys would change it from "Redszone" to "BatemanZone" if I won, but I will take what I can get!

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You should sell the hat now-its value will never be higher.