No it hasn’t lol. Again you’re just inventing stuff. You can’t demonstrate how the odds of winning have decreased. It’s a completely circular argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
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No it hasn’t lol. Again you’re just inventing stuff. You can’t demonstrate how the odds of winning have decreased. It’s a completely circular argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I literally showed how the odds have changed in post #433.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
What do you call it when someone makes up the fact that someone made up a fact?
If somehow you could show randomness changes over the course of series then you’d have an argument, but you can’t demonstrate that. That post proves nothing. Randomness settles on all teams like snow. That doesn’t change if it’s five series or two.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Tell me you don’t understand what “odds” mean, without telling me you don’t understand what “odds” mean.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I know exactly what it means. And increasing the number of postseason series changes nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
If anything, more doorways into the postseason improve the Reds’ odds.
If a division winner needs to win 2 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 25%. If a division winner needs to win 4 series in order to win a World Series title, their odds of winning a World Series title is 6.25%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Increasing the number of playoff series absolutely changes the odds of winning a championship, but a substantial manner.
Sure if you entirely ignore the fact that only two winners from a league could even qualify in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I’ll take 6.25% over zero percent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
The debate you framed was whether the Reds should build a team that can make the playoffs, or a team that they think can win the World Series. So those are the odds we are discussing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
My point is that because the odds of a playoff team winning the World Series is now only 6.25%, fans that demand a team win the World Series, are going to be disappointed nearly all the time. 93.75% of the time that they their team makes the playoffs. Fans obviously have the right to demand that, but they need to be prepared to be disappointed most if not all of their lives.
First of all, no.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
These series aren’t completely random. Yes, there’s randomness built in but they aren’t equally 6.25% odds across the board.
You’re 100% defending not improving the team.
Well, the idea is not so much to emulate the Brewers/Rays/Guardians. Rather, it should be to adopt their principles while utilizing an economic advantage - read: higher payroll - given the stadium situations in Tampa, lack of fan support in Cleveland and market advantage over Milwaukee. And they don’t need a Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs or even Cardinals sized payroll to accomplish this.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfan9988
The problem: So far, given the aforementioned three franchises are always active during both the offseason and trading deadline, there’s really no solid evidence the Reds are even emulating any of them. Any franchise,even the Pirates, can draft/acquire and hold and that’s not nearly enough if the goal is to win the World Series, let alone reach one.
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I've tried to stay away from making this about what the Reds should do, and focus it on what fans should expect.Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
But this same argument does not defend not improving the Reds. The Reds clearly need to improve this offseason. The question is how? One argument is to improve the team so it can win the division or make the playoffs and then have fun in the post season. The other argument is to improve the team so that they are one of the favorites to win the World Series.
You're correct. Entering the playoffs, the Braves had a 26.4% chance of surviving the playoff gauntlet to win the World Series, with the Dodgers at 14.8%. The Astros were at 19.7%. The Rangers had a 4.0% chance. While it's nice that Texas overcame those odds to hoist the trophy, I don't have a lot of interest a persistent plan hinging the concept of "Well, anything is possible!"Quote:
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/...-02&dateDelta=
To your point, probability is not independent of team quality. It's not coin flipping, and odds shift as the playoffs unfold. Getting in gives a team a shot, but just getting in doesn't mean that the path to a title is equally likely/unlikely for each team. Build the best team you possibly can, then play the heck out of the game until there are no more games to play.
Never could abide the notion that you build to sneak into the playoffs because then “anything can happen.”
The objective should be to have a first rate team that, on merit, competes for a WS Championship.
That’s the kind of team fans should aspire to, even if the team has a bad playoff series and gets eliminated some seasons.
In the end, if you consistently have that kind of team, you’ll be rewarded with wins, playoffs, occasional championships, individual awards, all stars, overall recognition in the baseball world.
To clarify, I'm perfectly fine with just getting in if it's the result of overplaying expectations, which makes the lack of effort to bolster the team at this year's trade deadline disturbing to me. But as the result of a consistent plan to start seasons? Nah. That's a team with a floor set far too low. Do not want.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Showing that a team with a supposed 4% chance of winning the World Series, won the World Series, is not the win you think it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelSD
When you have so many teams playing so few games to decide the championship, the true odds, the ones I posted, play a much larger role in determining who wins, than those odds from Fangraphs (or any other site). Those odds from Fangraphs might be reliable if teams needed 100 wins to win a championship. But some team’s fate is decided by as few as 2 games. When that is the case, the fewer games being played, then luck (or the odds I posted) is a much bigger decider than talent.
In other words, those odds from Fangraphs, aren’t that reliable in short playoff situation. Building a more talented team give you a more meaningful chance of winning over a full season. It doesn’t give you nearly as much of a meaningful chance to win over a short playoff series.
And we have seen this play out time and time again in the playoffs. We saw it this year, we saw it last year with the 7 wins Phillies getting to the World Series, in 2021 with the 88 win Braves winning it all, and in 2019 with the Nationals winning it all. We likely will keep seeing this, because overall talent means less and less in this current playoff situation.
With such short series, “anything can happen” become truer and truer.