Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

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Originally Posted by Burt Gummer

I'm expecting another off season of pretty much doing nothing except coming up with new excuses

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That’s a very realistic outlook.

#whereyagonnago

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Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski

That’s a very realistic outlook.

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Why? By all reports the Reds are engaged with free agents and in several trade talks. They’ve brought in guys the past 2 season when it was an obvious rebuild. This year reports are that they have more money to work with and a team that’s no longer rebuilding.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Why? By all reports the Reds are engaged with free agents and in several trade talks. They’ve brought in guys the past 2 season when it was an obvious rebuild. This year reports are that they have more money to work with and a team that’s no longer rebuilding.

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This is where I'm at. The Reds sold off after getting crushed by the pandemic, but they also gave Votto $225M, Homer Bailey $100M+, signed both Castellanos and Moustakas, extended Hunter Greene.

Their inflation adjusted payroll going back to 2015 looks like this:

2015: $145.6M
2016: $99.6M
2017: $100M
2018: $116.5M
2019: $132.7M
2020: $144.3M
2021: $133.3M
2022: $118.2M
2023: $99.7M (spotrac)

It's a frustrated fan base, but I think they deserve a little more room to breathe than what a lot of people are giving them.

If they don't add money this offseason, when it literally could not be set up much better and with more flexibility to do so, then we riot.

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Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

If they don't add money this offseason, when it literally could not be set up much better and with more flexibility to do so, then we riot.

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Love the inflation-adjusted payroll numbers.

That means they have (about) $50M to spend to meet last year's payroll and could spend up to $100M if they wanted to hit their 2015 inflation-adjusted peak.

That's enough, theoretically, for Ohtani ($45M per season), Montgomery ($30M per season), and Hader ($25M per season).

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Why? By all reports the Reds are engaged with free agents and in several trade talks. They’ve brought in guys the past 2 season when it was an obvious rebuild. This year reports are that they have more money to work with and a team that’s no longer rebuilding.

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Just like it appeared that they were engaged with all 5 of the big FA shortstops, but in reality, they were not remotely serious about signing any of them. They were trying to get a veteran utility guy on the cheap, and when that failed, they just threw Suarez at SS and didn't care that his defense would cost the team games.
I mean, I hope you are right, but the reality is that Krall is deliberately being very ambiguous and hoping Reds fans read his comments with optimism and buy tickets.

Remember at the deadline "We're definitely buyers" ?

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Why? By all reports the Reds are engaged with free agents and in several trade talks. They’ve brought in guys the past 2 season when it was an obvious rebuild. This year reports are that they have more money to work with and a team that’s no longer rebuilding.

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What free agents have you seen that the Reds are "engaged" with, as I haven't seen a single rumor on free agency? Can you please provide an example?

Seen a couple trade rumors, but they are about moving India for prospects.


Edit to add: I see that they are one of a boat load of teams looking at Jeimer Candelario, so that's one.

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Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

It's a frustrated fan base, but I think they deserve a little more room to breathe than what a lot of people are giving them.
If they don't add money this offseason, when it literally could not be set up much better and with more flexibility to do so, then we riot.

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Excellent post. People are quick to forget that this ownership group has not hesitated to spend money in the past. Now I'm not sure that they've always spent it the right way, but that's a different discussion altogether.

My expectations are not super high, but lets actually give this franchise a chance before just playing the Castellini's don't care about winning card. I have to believe if I'm Bob Castellini I'm looking at this as a chance to win my fan base back, help his legacy and possibly make a championship run which for an 82 year old man all should come with a sense of urgency to it.

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Originally Posted by Wayne Krivsky

Excellent post. People are quick to forget that this ownership group has not hesitated to spend money in the past. Now I'm not sure that they've always spent it the right way, but that's a different discussion altogether.

My expectations are not super high, but lets actually give this franchise a chance before just playing the Castellini's don't care about winning card. I have to believe if I'm Bob Castellini I'm looking at this as a chance to win my fan base back, help his legacy and possibly make a championship run which for an 82 year old man all should come with a sense of urgency to it.

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I'm not convinced by the history though. They signed Votto, who gave them a huge discount for the first three years of his deal and he was a young, homegrown MVP caliber player. They signed Bailey and got burned in a sign one and trade all the others rebuild move. The spending spree for Castellanos, Moose, Shogo, etc. appeared to be driven by Dick Williams who ended up parting ways with the organization over it. Now that he's gone, I question whether they will make big moves for outside acquisitions. They may lock other guys up like they did Hunter Greene which will increase the payroll some, but there is no in house player due a mega deal like Votto and they seem gun-shy after the Williams spending spree. I think they should go big on a starter, relatively big on a reliever and find a free agent lefty masher in the $5 to $10 Million range. I just don't think they will.

I'm working under this assumption:

1. There's a finite amount of money the Reds have to spend, both in 2024 and in future years.
2. We don't know what that amount of money is.
3. We all want the Reds to spend that finite amount of money in the most efficient way.
4. We all want the Reds to be competitive, including ownership and the front office.

I just don't think you own a sports franchise to strictly make it all about dollars and cents. If it was, you wouldn't pay Homer Bailey $100M+. But there's a limit on how far they're willing to go.

I hated everything about the post 2021 tear down at the time, but in hindsight, I don't hate it nearly as much? The Reds have positioned themselves incredibly well financially and given themselves flexibility to choose their own adventure.

I think they'll do everything they can to lock up the non-Boras guys, and still have plenty of flexibility in 2024-2026 to bring in some free agents that can bring some serious value.

Maybe they want one more year of low payroll to balance out the hit they took in 2020. That would certainly be depressing as a fan. I most definitely do not root for the Castellini's bank accounts. If they end up adding Candelario and he only posts a 1.0 WAR for $12M, while that wouldn't be the most efficient use of the money, it would be better than the Castellini's retaining that money.

They could legitimately sign Sonny Gray to an above market deal ($72M/3), Jorge Soler ($48M/3), and Jeimer Candelario ($36M/3), and still have money left over to add some bullpen help AND another SP.... and keep the payroll under $110 million!

I think we have to give them credit for getting themselves into the situation they're in. A bevy of young talent, a competitive team, and absolutely no financial burdens. I also think it's a very reasonable for fans to expect them to take advantage of this situation and add meaningful talent.

The situation I laid out above would be about 7.5 (projected) fWAR for about $52M in 2024. On paper, that puts them in the upper 80's in wins, and that's not even counting some second year leaps, and some more normalized injuries than what they had in 2023. (Also, Mitch Garver would be a fantastic fit, and shouldn't cost more than $24M/2 years. There's room!)

This is already a successful rebuild. I really want to see them pounce on the opportunity, and think that they will. But it is the hope that kills you.

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Originally Posted by mth123

I'm not convinced by the history though. They signed Votto, who gave them a huge discount for the first three years of his deal and he was a young, homegrown MVP caliber player. They signed Bailey and got burned in a sign one and trade all the others rebuild move. The spending spree for Castellanos, Moose, Shogo, etc. appeared to be driven by Dick Williams who ended up parting ways with the organization over it. Now that he's gone, I question whether they will make big moves for outside acquisitions. They may lock other guys up like they did Hunter Greene which will increase the payroll some, but there is no in house player due a mega deal like Votto and they seem gun-shy after the Williams spending spree. I think they should go big on a starter, relatively big on a reliever and find a free agent lefty masher in the $5 to $10 Million range. I just don't think they will.

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To add to this, past spending was mostly on extensions other than the Cast/Moose/Shogo/Miley spree that ended in a rebuild and the top personnel executive leaving baseball altogether

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Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I'm working under this assumption:

1. There's a finite amount of money the Reds have to spend, both in 2024 and in future years.
2. We don't know what that amount of money is.
3. We all want the Reds to spend that finite amount of money in the most efficient way.
4. We all want the Reds to be competitive, including ownership and the front office.

I just don't think you own a sports franchise to strictly make it all about dollars and cents. If it was, you wouldn't pay Homer Bailey $100M+. But there's a limit on how far they're willing to go.

I hated everything about the post 2021 tear down at the time, but in hindsight, I don't hate it nearly as much? The Reds have positioned themselves incredibly well financially and given themselves flexibility to choose their own adventure.

I think they'll do everything they can to lock up the non-Boras guys, and still have plenty of flexibility in 2024-2026 to bring in some free agents that can bring some serious value.

Maybe they want one more year of low payroll to balance out the hit they took in 2020. That would certainly be depressing as a fan. I most definitely do not root for the Castellini's bank accounts. If they end up adding Candelario and he only posts a 1.0 WAR for $12M, while that wouldn't be the most efficient use of the money, it would be better than the Castellini's retaining that money.

They could legitimately sign Sonny Gray to an above market deal ($72M/3), Jorge Soler ($48M/3), and Jeimer Candelario ($36M/3), and still have money left over to add some bullpen help AND another SP.... and keep the payroll under $110 million!

I think we have to give them credit for getting themselves into the situation they're in. A bevy of young talent, a competitive team, and absolutely no financial burdens. I also think it's a very reasonable for fans to expect them to take advantage of this situation and add meaningful talent.

The situation I laid out above would be about 7.5 (projected) fWAR for about $52M in 2024. On paper, that puts them in the upper 80's in wins, and that's not even counting some second year leaps, and some more normalized injuries than what they had in 2023. (Also, Mitch Garver would be a fantastic fit, and shouldn't cost more than $24M/2 years. There's room!)

This is already a successful rebuild. I really want to see them pounce on the opportunity, and think that they will. But it is the hope that kills you.

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I think you make a lot of good points here but I have trouble with the bolded part.

The Reds traded a boatload of talent to get here:

2 of the top 5 in the AL Cy Young (top end pitching would have made this year's team a lock for the playoffs)
3 former all stars (Iglesias, Winker, Suarez)
a MOR arm (which ended up being the most lopsided of all the trades)

and a lot of the success they are seeing was just plain old good drafting and international signings:

Stephenson (drafted)
India (drafted)
De La Cruz (signed)
Friedl (undrafted free agent)
McLain (drafted)
Ashcraft (drafted)
Lodolo (drafted)
Greene (drafted)
Diaz (drafted)
Abbott (drafted)

I don't think burning the thing to the ground was necessary even though it stocked the cupboards. I think they could have stayed quite competitive.

Let's look at 2 (admittedly cherry picked scenarios):

Making all trades except for Castillo, you would have missed out on (from the 2023 team):
Marte
Stoudt

Making all trades except for Gray, you would have missed out on (from the 2023 team):
......

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Why? By all reports the Reds are engaged with free agents and in several trade talks. They’ve brought in guys the past 2 season when it was an obvious rebuild. This year reports are that they have more money to work with and a team that’s no longer rebuilding.

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“Why?”


lol

As the old saying goes " Fool me once shame on you,fool me twice shame on me"
Unfortunately I believed ownership and championship baseball returning to Cincinnati,obviously that was just a lie,so now I pretty much refuse to believe anything ownership and/or the front office says
If they want the fans to come back full steam they'll have to invest into the team

Yeah. We should enjoy watching the Reds and going to games, in the sense that life should be enjoyed, but when we are looking at the Reds in analytical/critical mode, it seems pretty obvious that this team deserves no benefit of the doubt until they can win a playoff series, build a scary team, excel at anything that isn’t “small market” profit boosting, etc. It’s been 30+ years of bad baseball where the only 2 brief stretches of “success” were, in a macro view, marginal.