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It has been 11 games, the Nationals are currently the 3rd best hitting team in all of baseball. It is way to early to be thinking what things look like now will be how they remain.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
If the Reds stay at the bottom of the league in offense the issue is much larger then Hayes and over the course of the season playing Lowe isn't going to do enough to improve that.
They're not going to hold teams to 2 runs or less every game so at some point they'll need to score more runs. It's working now because the pitching staff has a 152 ERA+.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
While I agree the issue is larger than just Hayes, he is a contributing factor in the horrible offense and his last two years indicate he will continue to be horrible. At some point soon, more offense will be needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
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Is there any level of offensive ineptitude that would make you think that Hayes should be replaced? Let’s say June 1st arrives, and he still has a sub 600 ops.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
At game 11 when the team is 8-3 no, I don't see any need to replace him. Especially when 8 other guys on the team are currently at sub .600 ops just to use your number.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
If June 1st arrives and the team still has a winning record and Hayes is sub .600 but is playing his usual GG defense at 3B no I don't see any reason to replace him.
If June 1st comes around and they are struggling to win games and are below .500 then I would look at it but again I do not think there is one guy on the team that will replace him and make up for the ineptitude of the offense if the whole team is still struggling like they are today. Again he would at least be providing solid defense where a guy like Friedl is giving average or below defense and not hitting.
If you believe in some small-sample Bbref oWAR, Marte, Friedl, and Steer have actually been worse than Hayes.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
I think in this case, worse is probably too kind a word. Worser maybe? Worstest?
Only Stewart, Elly, and somehow McLain have oWARs above 0.0. Nearly the whole team is playing offense at a sub-replacement level and we’re 8-3.
It might be a fun season by the time it’s all said and done.
I've been wanting to replace Hayes with Lowe the minute Lowe was signed, it has nothing to do with the team's start, it has to do with Hayes' last two seasons.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsfan9988
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I'm not, and have not said that replacing Hayes fixes the entire offense, but every little bit helps (and a 40% difference isn't a little thing)Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
The thing is he was not brought here for his offense, he was brought in for defense and so far the team has benefitted from it. The entire team is playing better defense, not saying that is all because of Hayes but that was their plan and it is working.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeatherPants
There were a lot of players that were being counted on for their offense though and those are the guys who are not getting it done. Their plan was to build the team with enough offense to make up for Hayes bat and that hasn't happened, that is where they need to start in my opinion. I blame it on the front office and Tito for going with the "these guys who were bad last year will magically be better this year" approach but putting Lowe in for Hayes isn't going to matter if no one else on the team can hit.
It looks like he is going to get A LOT of opportunities in the comming days... Who had PJ on their Bingo card?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
There are definitely more problems than Hayes. But Hayes is going to be a problem for the next 4 years. I'd be very happy if he was gone and that wasn't hanging over the franchise. They can stick Suarez at 3B and Lowe at DH and I think they'd come out ahead. Writing off any production at a position for a year is a problem. Committing to it for 4 years is lunacy.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
They definitely have other stuff to address. The OF is a mess. They have more scrubs out there than a hospital emergency room. Benson has been a scrub the last two years yet the Reds chose to keep him as part of the solution. Bleday and Myers are both scrubs who last year combined for -0.1 WAR. Freidl looks like a guy in decline. Steer is meh when he's playing position he can play and worse than meh when he's playing one he can't. Dunn is an aging minor leaguer. Hinds has a ton of swing and miss in his game.
I hope Friedl can bounce back and provide a solid on base presence. Besides him, there isn't one OF on the roster that I have even a little optimism about. The best they can do is use them all the best they can, but playing Marte vs LHP isn't doing that.
Hayes isn't the only problem, but he the costliest problem, the longest-term problem and a problem that the Reds have an immediate answer for.
If the answer you are looking for is what can they do to both be worse on defense and still be a terrible offensive team, then yeah I guess go ahead and swap Lowe in at DH and move Suarez to 3B.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
I am pretty sure it isn't going to solve any of the bigger issues that the team has on offense though and will end with needing to score more runs because the defense will take a hit which will in the end effect the pitching.
I would argue that Hayes isn't the costliest problem as he is doing exactly what he is on the team to do, the costliest problems are the guys who are on the team to provide offense and are not doing so.
Right now Hayes is OPSing under .300 -- obviously a lot of guys are struggling, but he's not really showing any signs of life. So naturally you wonder -- how much of it is the back issue, how much is it the good pitchers we've seen? None of us really know what's going on. Is it flaring up and he should be IR'd? Or is it getting progressively worse, and even a .600 OPS might be wishful thinking at this point? Or is it relatively OK -- and what exactly is "OK" for him at this point?
Especially with the opportunity cost of keeping Lowe out of the lineup (not to mention Geno's stated discomfort with DHing), I wonder how much rope they give Hayes. If he's OPSing under .500 by the end of April, I'm guessing the team is forced to pull the plug. At least IR him?
My hunch is he basically has a career-ending injury, just a... very slow rolling one. And I think the Reds are kind of in denial about it, for obvious reasons.
I think the increase in run value you'd get from Lowe on offense will be more than the negative impact on defense. Suarez isn't Marte. He was just a tick below average over there. You don't have to have the best defender in the game to win. You have to have the best overall production. Lowe would balance the line-up a little without having to force it as much as the Reds do.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
Last year, Suarez defense was -0.7 Runs below average. Hayes was 19.3 Run Above average. That's a 20 run loss on the defensive side. Hayes was worth -24.6 Runs vs average on offense. All Lowe would need to be is average to gain 0.5 WAR. Prior to 2025 he was a lot better than that. If he is say 10 runs above average (very doable IMO) you gain 1.5 Wins. That's like upgrading a run of the mill starting player to an All Star player.
No problem with Hayes on the team, his defense is helpful. He’s just starting too many games, they should use him as a defensive replacement more often. That can easily be adjusted and maybe it will be. I don’t see it as all or nothing with him.
Steer OTOH should be moved to bench if his bat doesn’t get going very soon. He doesn’t compensate defensively. Marte hasn’t had enough chances but he needs to hit more too.
Rece Hinds wasn’t in the Bats lineup last two games, some rumors he may be coming up to Reds, not confirmed, if so we’ll see what else changes.
I agree, I think Hayes should be the UI. I'm sure he's fine enough in MI to do that. That way if his back allows him to hit better than a pitcher, it's a nice bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Steer I think they'll give more rope to turn his bat around. He's not anything great as an OF defender, but not atrocious like Lux was. Savant says he has a pretty good arm, I wonder how he'd do in RF if they got the speedy Hinds (or Marte I suppose) in CF, and moved Friedl to LF?