Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

We're not the only ones dreaming on Glasnow. David Schoenfield at ESPN imagines us getting him too:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ncy-every-team

Quote:

---

Tampa Bay Rays trade RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot to the Cincinnati Reds for RHP Connor Phillips, OF Will Benson and RHP Julian Aguiar

---

Not a huge Manny Margot fan, but he makes sense as part of a Fraley platoon and it's arguably selling high on Benson (one of the luckiest batters last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...3&sortDir=desc)

So do you trade Connor Phillips and Julian Aguiar? I would. Part of that is a personal bias against pitchers with good stuff but serious control issues. My bigger complaint with the deal would be the inclusion of Aguiar, who I like quite a bit. But ultimately it's about adding a very good starter at essentially no cost to the major league roster and I'm not holding my breath that we land a big name in FA.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee

After reading a couple articles on it, I'm dreaming of a Glasnow deal. I'm trying to get there.

I've come up with three permutations.

If the Rays are reloading, not tearing down:
Reds trade CF TJ Friedl, C Tyler Stephenson, 2B/3B Jonathan India, SS prospect Edwin Arroyo, and either Lyon Richardson or Connor Phillips for OF Manuel Margot and SP Tyler Glasnow.
- Rays get above average help at three spots and add for the future as well. This is likely an overpay for one year of Glasnow, but the Reds get a real ace at the cost of some offensive depth and a switch from Friedl to Margot. This isn't a great deal unless Margot bounces back with a solid offensive season or Blake Dunn proves he's basically TJ Friedl with more pop and speed.

If the Rays are blowing it up:
Reds trade SP Connor Phillips, SP Lyon Richardson, SS Edwin Arroyo, and 3B Cam Collier for Glasnow. Reds gut most of their farm depth, but grab the sure thing TOR ace they need. This also feels a little heavy in terms of price, but it's the type of deal I could see Tampa agreeing to.

Or in a deal that would be talked about for perhaps a generation, who'd say no to this one?:
Reds trade EDLC for Glasnow and Wander Franco. Rays get rid of the headache of Franco-- and the cost of that blowback. If he's found guilty, the Reds can release him. If he's exonerated, he becomes a pretty great player for a generation. The gamble, of course, is the $300M. (Which, to be fair, would be negated-- I assume-- should he be found guilty and jailed.)

---

Those are the most insane trade proposals I've ever seen on here. Glasnow is 30 with one year at 25 million and has never pitched more than 120 innings in his career. Friedl by himself is an overpay much less the entire farm. India and a decent prospect like Richardson would be my best offer.

Glasnow has never exceeded 2.5 WAR in a single season in his career. Yeah let's trade 5 good players and prospects for 1 overpriced season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We're not the only ones dreaming on Glasnow. David Schoenfield at ESPN imagines us getting him too:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ncy-every-team



Not a huge Manny Margot fan, but he makes sense as part of a Fraley platoon and it's arguably selling high on Benson (one of the luckiest batters last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...3&sortDir=desc)

So do you trade Connor Phillips and Julian Aguiar? I would. Part of that is a personal bias against pitchers with good stuff but serious control issues. My bigger complaint with the deal would be the inclusion of Aguiar, who I like quite a bit. But ultimately it's about adding a very good starter at essentially no cost to the major league roster and I'm not holding my breath that we land a big name in FA.

---

But would it be wise to deal prospect capitol for a starter with a big injury history and only one year away from free agency?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We're not the only ones dreaming on Glasnow. David Schoenfield at ESPN imagines us getting him too:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ncy-every-team



Not a huge Manny Margot fan, but he makes sense as part of a Fraley platoon and it's arguably selling high on Benson (one of the luckiest batters last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...3&sortDir=desc)

So do you trade Connor Phillips and Julian Aguiar? I would. Part of that is a personal bias against pitchers with good stuff but serious control issues. My bigger complaint with the deal would be the inclusion of Aguiar, who I like quite a bit. But ultimately it's about adding a very good starter at essentially no cost to the major league roster and I'm not holding my breath that we land a big name in FA.

---

I’d rather have Benson than Margot and Phillips than Glasnow. I see no upside for the Reds in this trade proposal, especially when you consider they could just sign a starter at least as good as Glasnow for less than $25M.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Old school 1983

The Reds didn’t act as a binary though. I think hindsight creates that. They went into the 2022 season with Castillo and Mahle in the rotation. There was a gap in time from the initial off-season sell and the deadline sell. Once they realized 2022 was essentially over, they traded those guys at the deadline. A middle ground was actually taken there and on further assessment, the Reds chose to sell those guys for prospects. Given the reasonable projected timeline for success, I agree with those moves.

You’re making a valid argument that they could have done something in between keep 2021 and tear down. I just think the clean slate was the way to go in order to build sustainably moving forward.

---

You are treating it as a binary decision that you support everything they did or none of it. Of course the Reds "didn't act as a binary". They gave away their closer and set-up man before the 2021 season. I still disagree they had to wipe the slate clean

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 757690

I’d rather have Benson than Margot and Phillips than Glasnow. I see no upside for the Reds in this trade proposal, especially when you consider they could just sign a starter at least as good as Glasnow for less than $25M.

---

There is value to only being on the hook for one year instead of signing up for 4 or 5. I'm not really interested in Margot. Fairchild is better than him and he has a $12 Million commitment.

If the Reds take Margot too, they'd be adding $37 Million in salary and should be able to get this deal for India straight-up.

I'm 100% on the train that the Reds will/need to be using free agency for starting pitcher and bullpen help. The impending India trade will be for prospects, not MLB-ready help unless one of the returns is a relief pitcher at AA/AAA.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

You are treating it as a binary decision that you support everything they did or none of it. Of course the Reds "didn't act as a binary". They gave away their closer and set-up man before the 2021 season. I still disagree they had to wipe the slate clean

---

I totally understand you can support parts and not others. Come on now. I get that there are takes between all good and all bad. I just happen to support most of what they’ve done so far given the circumstances at the time.

They gave up the closer and set up guy because the payroll was near maxed. The payroll they are willing to spend in reality…not what fans think they should spend. With that plan they could only add on the margins. By clearing the decks they have multiple guys with a half of decade of control or more and salary room to spare to add more.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We're not the only ones dreaming on Glasnow. David Schoenfield at ESPN imagines us getting him too:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ncy-every-team



Not a huge Manny Margot fan, but he makes sense as part of a Fraley platoon and it's arguably selling high on Benson (one of the luckiest batters last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...3&sortDir=desc)

So do you trade Connor Phillips and Julian Aguiar? I would. Part of that is a personal bias against pitchers with good stuff but serious control issues. My bigger complaint with the deal would be the inclusion of Aguiar, who I like quite a bit. But ultimately it's about adding a very good starter at essentially no cost to the major league roster and I'm not holding my breath that we land a big name in FA.

---

The Reds aren't trading Phillips, Benson, and Aquiar for a one year window with a guy who's just as likely to spend more time on the IL than Lodolo. Benson's OPS vs RHP could drop by 100 points and he would still be a very valuable player on the long side of a platoon. The Reds aren't in a position to be giving up valuable young assets for short term guys.

If Glasnow was the final piece to making them a World Series contender maybe you trade a Phillips straight up for him. They are still a year or two away from such a move. There's still a lot of sorting out with players who have less than a full season of big league experience to do.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JCM11

The Reds aren't trading Phillips, Benson, and Aquiar for a one year window with a guy who's just as likely to spend more time on the IL than Lodolo. Benson's OPS vs RHP could drop by 100 points and he would still be a very valuable player on the long side of a platoon. The Reds aren't in a position to be giving up valuable young assets for short term guys.

If Glasnow was the final piece to making them a World Series contender maybe you trade a Phillips straight up for him. They are still a year or two away from such a move. There's still a lot of sorting out with players who have less than a full season of big league experience to do.

---

If the Reds take on $12 Million of Manual Margot when he's probably no better than Fairchild, they should be able to get Glasnow dirt cheap. No way I'd include Phillips or Aguiar.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mth123

If the Reds take on $12 Million of Manual Margot when he's probably no better than Fairchild, they should be able to get Glasnow dirt cheap. No way I'd include Phillips or Aguiar.

---

Yeah that's a borderline salary dump when you factor in Glasnow being made of glass and owed 25 million. Margot and Glasnow combined for 2.6 WAR last year. The Reds could spend 35 million in FA and get better production than that and keep their prospects.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

We're not the only ones dreaming on Glasnow. David Schoenfield at ESPN imagines us getting him too:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ncy-every-team

Tampa Bay Rays trade RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot to the Cincinnati Reds for RHP Connor Phillips, OF Will Benson and RHP Julian Aguiar

Not a huge Manny Margot fan, but he makes sense as part of a Fraley platoon and it's arguably selling high on Benson (one of the luckiest batters last year: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...3&sortDir=desc)

So do you trade Connor Phillips and Julian Aguiar? I would. Part of that is a personal bias against pitchers with good stuff but serious control issues. My bigger complaint with the deal would be the inclusion of Aguiar, who I like quite a bit. But ultimately it's about adding a very good starter at essentially no cost to the major league roster and I'm not holding my breath that we land a big name in FA.

---

No thank you.

Baseball Trade Values has this as a MASSIVE overpay by the Reds. $10M of value coming from the Rays and $24M from the Reds.

Benson's value alone is similar to Glasnow's.

*-of course trade values don't work exactly like this in the real world, but this simulator can absolutely tell you when there's a massive overpay on our hands.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Old school 1983

I totally understand you can support parts and not others. Come on now. I get that there are takes between all good and all bad. I just happen to support most of what they’ve done so far given the circumstances at the time.

They gave up the closer and set up guy because the payroll was near maxed. The payroll they are willing to spend in reality…not what fans think they should spend. With that plan they could only add on the margins. By clearing the decks they have multiple guys with a half of decade of control or more and salary room to spare to add more.

---

I'm glad we can agree those moves were financially driven. This all circles back to the fact that I don't find the complete selloff to be strategic in nature other than to cut costs and hope it generated enough talent that it doesn't cost the GM his job. It's just a difference of opinion. The same way that salary room doesn't get me excited. If they spend it on impact players I'll tip my cap while being endlessly trolled for not predicting they would do so.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

I'm glad we can agree those moves were financially driven. This all circles back to the fact that I don't find the complete selloff to be strategic in nature other than to cut costs and hope it generated enough talent that it doesn't cost the GM his job. It's just a difference of opinion. The same way that salary room doesn't get me excited. If they spend it on impact players I'll tip my cap while being endlessly trolled for not predicting they would do so.

---

Well yeah, finances have always been a consideration. But finances and baseball decisions are not always mutually exclusive. That’s not a binary either. You can make a move that effectuates a financial end while it making good baseball sense.

I don't think Phillips should be included for a 1-year guy. Glasnow has had durability concerns, and Phillips being on the cusp, with 6 years of control, IMO makes him too high in value for 100-130 innings of Glasnow.

But I get the though behind Benson/mid to low tier prospects for Glasnow and Margot.