Phil Castellini surprised that Opening Day tickets still unsold

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Originally Posted by LeatherPants

There's a whole bunch of people on this website that like to tell how others should be fans.

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People can be fans however they want to be fans. Maybe I’d have been better off stating, add something meaningful to the conversation or don’t respond.

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Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!

I appreciate the optimism, and won’t make fun of you for it. However, I don’t think FA hitters of much note will ever want to come to Cincinnati. Castellanos was a unicorn, perfect storm type situation. He wasn’t getting the kind of deal he wanted and the Reds came in and gave him a deal with good money and opt-outs after every season. It was a show-me contract with good insurance if he either got injured or fell off a cliff. Made sense for Cast. Rest is history. Other FA deals will either be signing over the hill hitters trying to recoup their value with GABP and overpays for aging players (like Moose).

Frankly, as much as I hate to say it, the “sustainability model” or whatever is really the only chance we have to see a winner. We have to be the Rays. It’s the only way in reality. I know, I know, #selltheteambob. But, even if Bob does sell its way more likely the next owner is just another Bob than it is Mark Cuban or like the dude that bought the Mets. It’s fantasy.

Again, not saying I like it, but I’m starting to think this is the only way.

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I agree with you. I see a pipeline of young pitchers being the way to winning here. The ballpark isn’t likely going to draw in a lot of FA pitching. But, if the team is good and they have payroll to spare due to being mostly young talent, I could see a big bat coming in on a short term deal in order to boost their value on a consistent basis. I mean look at Pham. Older guy sure. But that’s what he’s trying to do. The Reds should be trying to do the same thing with Conforto as they did Cast too IMO.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Your point stands if the goal was championships. Which I agree it should be. Not just winning seasons. I am really interested in this sustainability model though. It seems like the light went on that they need a steady pipeline of young pitching. If that solidifies, I can see solid FA hitters wanting to come to Cincinnati.

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Forget championships. If you think the numbers I showed above indicate success, have garnered respect around the league and trust that the current leadership suddenly knows how to run a team because they latched onto a new buzzword, rock on. I'm envious of the optimism.

Do I think a "Rays-like" model can be successful? Absolutely. Do I TRUST they can execute it? Nope. My trust bank is overdrawn with this crew. I'm at the "show me" stage

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Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

Forget championships. If you think the numbers I showed above indicate success, have garnered respect around the league and trust that the current leadership suddenly knows how to run a team because they latched onto a new buzzword, rock on. I'm envious of the optimism.

Do I think a "Rays-like" model can be successful? Absolutely. Do I TRUST they can execute it? Nope. My trust bank is overdrawn with this crew. I'm at the "show me" stage

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I agree about leadership. “We” need to be the Rays, but “we” also need a competent GM.

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Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

Forget championships. If you think the numbers I showed above indicate success, have garnered respect around the league and trust that the current leadership suddenly knows how to run a team because they latched onto a new buzzword, rock on. I'm envious of the optimism.

Do I think a "Rays-like" model can be successful? Absolutely. Do I TRUST they can execute it? Nope. My trust bank is overdrawn with this crew. I'm at the "show me" stage

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Regardless of the level of success achieved, I think this group has been more or less honest with what they are trying to do over the years. The execution has just been bad. Despite the pissing and moaning over the off-season, I can see how they may be seeing the light. Focusing on young, mostly high velocity arms. Moving on from guys who had one dimensional softball type games no matter how much fans liked them. Freeing up a large war chest of money for years to come. Brining in older but solid veteran bats that get on base to supplement the kids in their development. As much as it hurt to let some of the last iteration of the team go, I can see where this builds in a positive direction.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Regardless of the level of success achieved, I think this group has been more or less honest with what they are trying to do over the years.

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Nope.

They've lied consistently about payroll, plan, and development.

That's the holy trinity of running a ballclub.

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Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee

Nope.

They've lied consistently about payroll, plan, and development.

That's the holy trinity of running a ballclub.

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When? They arguably over extended the payroll in 2010-2013. The 2014-2018 rebuild, they were honest about, they just bungled a lot of the player deals. 2019 they said they were adding and they did. 2020 they said they were adding and they did. 2021 they had probably hit their payroll limit due to the lack of income over covid and built a pisser of a bullpen. 2022 they said they’d go this new course and they have.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

When? They arguably over extended the payroll in 2010-2013. The 2014-2018 rebuild, they were honest about, they just bungled a lot of the player deals. 2019 they said they were adding and they did. 2020 they said they were adding and they did. 2021 they had probably hit their payroll limit due to the lack of income over covid and built a pisser of a bullpen. 2022 they said they’d go this new course and they have.

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They still won't acknowledge that the Winker Suarez trade was a salary dump.

Jeez, read the Castellini or Krall interviews. It's all horsepoop. Or read my signature, for a quote from David "it's a family affaaaaair" Bell, to further illustrate the point.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

When? They arguably over extended the payroll in 2010-2013. The 2014-2018 rebuild, they were honest about, they just bungled a lot of the player deals. 2019 they said they were adding and they did. 2020 they said they were adding and they did. 2021 they had probably hit their payroll limit due to the lack of income over covid and built a pisser of a bullpen. 2022 they said they’d go this new course and they have.

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Well, off the top of my head - Krall came out and said after the Iglesias trade they were going to re-allocate the money to sign a SS and never did.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

When?

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"We plan on being competitive each year..."

"We looked for alternatives in a price range..."

"We're committed to breaking even..."

"We're committed to the fans..."

"We're spending money behind the scenes commensurate with..."

Just as a reminder, we know the Reds are currently raking in in excess of $185M in revenue sharing and other moneys. We also know their payroll is significantly lower than that. That is not an ownership group that is dedicated to winning, nor is it one that is chasing championships. Nor, frankly, is it one I'm particularly proud of.

Were it me, I'd just assume everything that's come out of an owner's mouth the past hundred years about baseball, fans, his passion for the sport, and their willingness and desire to win championships is a lie. That'll save you a whole bunch of grief and pushback from those who can show you all the receipts.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

When? They arguably over extended the payroll in 2010-2013. The 2014-2018 rebuild, they were honest about, they just bungled a lot of the player deals. 2019 they said they were adding and they did. 2020 they said they were adding and they did. 2021 they had probably hit their payroll limit due to the lack of income over covid and built a pisser of a bullpen. 2022 they said they’d go this new course and they have.

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The three years prior to the tear down, the Reds spent about 50% of their revenue on payroll.

2013 50%
2014 50%
2015 48%



2016 39.2%
2017 39.2%
2018 39.4%



2019 45.8%
2020 48.5%
2021 45.8%


The didn't add in 2019 and 2020, they just went to roughly where they were before the teardown, and now they are tearing down again. The major league average for payroll as a percentage of revenue is about 49%.


They don't use any savings for the future, they just pocket them.

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Originally Posted by Old school 1983

Yeah. Because it just didn’t happen 2 years ago with Moose and Cast.

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And then nothing else happened since

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Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

And then nothing else happened since

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That's not true. After that they got rid of everyone they possibly could that was making any kind of money.

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Originally Posted by Bob Sheed

They still won't acknowledge that the Winker Suarez trade was a salary dump.

Jeez, read the Castellini or Krall interviews. It's all horsepoop. Or read my signature, for a quote from David "it's a family affaaaaair" Bell, to further illustrate the point.

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I believe Krall said that put them under this years payroll and would allow them to add more talent to this years team. Which they did. Also, in assessing the deal there’s a pretty strong damn case that the Reds will have the better end of it when it’s all said and done. So, I don’t consider that a lie. What does David Bell have to do with lying? If you think the move was incompetent, fair enough. Incompetence isn’t lying.

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Originally Posted by LeatherPants

They don't use any savings for the future, they just pocket them.

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It's remarkable that a lie as easily debunked as that continues to swindle intelligent people who pay attention to the sport.