Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
The Reds aren’t signing relievers as free agents, or in arbitration, if the goal is to get rid of them.
If the Reds don’t want a Buck Farmer (FA) or a Lucas Sims (arbitration) they’ll let them go.
These players are not relatively easy to trade AFTER you’ve given them a guaranteed deal.
I figure Reds will keep four relievers for sure - Diaz, Gibaut, Cruz, and Moll.
Beyond that, it’ll be a one-by-one decision based on cost and projected performance.
You could be right, I'm saying what the Reds should do.
Will they actually do that? Probably not.
The thing is, Sims will not cost that much in arb. He's a decent middle reliever, he can be traded.
I assume Buck Farmer is a FA (I am not 100% sure).. If they let him go, that's a big void to fill. I'd rather sign him if the price is reasonable than to try to find another dumpster dive to backfill with him. Reds had success this year building a bullpen from the scrapheap, but historically, they haven't done that well.
If the only relievers the Reds keep are Diaz, Gibaut, Cruz, and Moll... then we're probably in huge trouble next year.
I am going to say that they will probably keep Duarte too, as he's going to be cheap (I'm assuming you left him off the list as he's a given)
So that gives them 5 relievers, they need to get at least 3 more.. and they need to get good ones because Bell uses the pen heavily.
I just don't have the confidence the Reds will be spend or be willing to trade for relievers as good as Farmer, Sims, Young, and Law were last year.
Those 4 guys pitched over 240 innings last year. They were a big part of why the Reds had so many come behind victories and one run victories.
I have zero confidence the Reds will find 4 guys as good or better.
Now, if Krall does the analysis, and thinks Law is going to regress and cuts him loose and signs or trades for someone who he thinks is better than Law, that's fine.
But just cutting all 4 of those guys loose at the start of the offseason with no plan is pretty reckless.
We know Krall is pretty timid about trading prospects, so that means he'd likely be dumpster diving to fill those 4 spots.
Reds have plenty of payflex this offseason, they can use some of it to keep the pen together. It's time to stop being so penny pinching.
Now, you may be right, the Reds might cut those 4 guys loose to save money, but I hope not.
Not sure what the point of trading for Moll is, if the Reds cut Young loose (who was a better lefty out of the pen).
That puts them back to just one lefty in the pen.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
If you want 68 extra base hits from one position, and some consistency over a number of years, you’d take Castellanos.
That’s his hallmark. Doubles and homers. If that’s what you’re looking for, he’s your choice.
All the numbers I posted were what they did. I don't care about the position, but that is me. Castellanos had 671 PA's on a team filled with offense and only scored 71 runs, knocking himself in 29 times. He doesn't get on base enough. Fraley played all his OF in RF and he was DH after he returned to the lineup. Benson took over RF after Fraley got hurt.
My point is, a strict platoon of Senzel or any other RHH that mashes LHP, and either Benson or Fraley, with the same total PA's, outproduces him by a country mile. More HR's, more doubles, more triples, more walks, better defense. All from one position + occasionally DH. I say this believing 100% that Spenser Steer is now the everyday LF.
Castellanos biggest plus was he stayed healthy. Past that, he's a smidge overrated. Especially, it seems, by himself. But cocky can be good too.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
What do you think Rhys Hoskins gets on the open market after missing the year? I wonder if he could be an interesting target for a team with (self-imposed) financial constratints.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
REDREAD
You could be right, I'm saying what the Reds should do.
Will they actually do that? Probably not.
The thing is, Sims will not cost that much in arb. He's a decent middle reliever, he can be traded.
I assume Buck Farmer is a FA (I am not 100% sure).. If they let him go, that's a big void to fill. I'd rather sign him if the price is reasonable than to try to find another dumpster dive to backfill with him. Reds had success this year building a bullpen from the scrapheap, but historically, they haven't done that well.
If the only relievers the Reds keep are Diaz, Gibaut, Cruz, and Moll... then we're probably in huge trouble next year.
I am going to say that they will probably keep Duarte too, as he's going to be cheap (I'm assuming you left him off the list as he's a given)
So that gives them 5 relievers, they need to get at least 3 more.. and they need to get good ones because Bell uses the pen heavily.
I just don't have the confidence the Reds will be spend or be willing to trade for relievers as good as Farmer, Sims, Young, and Law were last year.
Those 4 guys pitched over 240 innings last year. They were a big part of why the Reds had so many come behind victories and one run victories.
I have zero confidence the Reds will find 4 guys as good or better.
Now, if Krall does the analysis, and thinks Law is going to regress and cuts him loose and signs or trades for someone who he thinks is better than Law, that's fine.
But just cutting all 4 of those guys loose at the start of the offseason with no plan is pretty reckless.
We know Krall is pretty timid about trading prospects, so that means he'd likely be dumpster diving to fill those 4 spots.
Reds have plenty of payflex this offseason, they can use some of it to keep the pen together. It's time to stop being so penny pinching.
Now, you may be right, the Reds might cut those 4 guys loose to save money, but I hope not.
Not sure what the point of trading for Moll is, if the Reds cut Young loose (who was a better lefty out of the pen).
That puts them back to just one lefty in the pen.
I want to improve the pen not destroy it. You can’t upgrade by signing everybody to guaranteed deals and waiting for them to regress. Once they regress, they have no value.
So you pick the guys you think will do well and make financial sense. I’d start with Diaz, Gibaut, Moll and Cruz. I’d also keep Antone, see if he can stay healthy.
You want to keep Young. That’s ok but he allowed 1.7 homers per nine innings. I’d look to upgrade.
Lucas Sims, great at strikeouts but walked 5.75 per nine. I’d think twice before offering arb.
Buck Farmer, free agent. Did ok, not a high K rate, but was very heavily used. I’d think twice before offering him a FA contract.
Guys like Duarte, Law, Lively, they can get invited to ST, but I wouldn’t sign them to big league deals up front.
Then you go into the market and see what you can get. Reds have some money to spend, I don’t see why it’s only dumpster diving. And maybe devote a couple of good young arms from within the org to the pen.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
I want to improve the pen not destroy it. You can’t upgrade by signing everybody to guaranteed deals and waiting for them to regress. Once they regress, they have no value.
So you pick the guys you think will do well and make financial sense. I’d start with Diaz, Gibaut, Moll and Cruz. I’d also keep Antone, see if he can stay healthy.
You want to keep Young. That’s ok but he allowed 1.7 homers per nine innings. I’d look to upgrade.
Lucas Sims, great at strikeouts but walked 5.75 per nine. I’d think twice before offering arb.
Buck Farmer, free agent. Did ok, not a high K rate, but was very heavily used. I’d think twice before offering him a FA contract.
Guys like Duarte, Law, Lively, they can get invited to ST, but I wouldn’t sign them to big league deals up front.
Then you go into the market and see what you can get. Reds have some money to spend, I don’t see why it’s only dumpster diving. And maybe devote a couple of good young arms from within the org to the pen.
Solid points, but I am trying to remember a time when the Reds bought in 4 new bullpen arms and they all worked out ok.
Yes, some guys might regress (probably will), but the new guys are also a candidate to regress.
Young is not perfect, but he might be the best Lefty reliever the Reds have had since Chapman.
I'm probably forgetting a guy or two, so maybe that's hyperbole, but the point is, the Reds really have struggled over the years to find a decent LH reliever.
Amir Garrett was given a lot of time and failed.
Now I agree, i would not give Law more than a one year deal. If he wants a 3 year deal, then the answer is no.
Buck Farmer, I'd only give 2 years to.
I agree with you that if Krall is willing to spend the money and/or trade the prospects to upgrade the pen.. I'm all for that.
I just don't have the same level of confidence in the front office.
Which is cool, we are closer to agreement than disagreement actually.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TRF
All the numbers I posted were what they did. I don't care about the position, but that is me. Castellanos had 671 PA's on a team filled with offense and only scored 71 runs, knocking himself in 29 times. He doesn't get on base enough. Fraley played all his OF in RF and he was DH after he returned to the lineup. Benson took over RF after Fraley got hurt.
My point is, a strict platoon of Senzel or any other RHH that mashes LHP, and either Benson or Fraley, with the same total PA's, outproduces him by a country mile. More HR's, more doubles, more triples, more walks, better defense. All from one position + occasionally DH. I say this believing 100% that Spenser Steer is now the everyday LF.
Castellanos biggest plus was he stayed healthy. Past that, he's a smidge overrated. Especially, it seems, by himself. But cocky can be good too.
Castellanos is a durable player whose XBH ability has been proven for years. Benson is a young player who struck out over 31%. Senzel doesn’t have a long track record as a lefty smasher. Fraley doesn’t have Cast’s record for durability.
If I’m looking for power hitting, I think Cast is a far more reliable option. And his 68 XBHs last season were actual, not projected from a smaller sample.
OTOH, Cast makes much more money. I won’t argue that Reds should have paid him. But I’d sure like to have him.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
If the Reds can't replace a few RP with mid 4's FIP then we're in really big trouble here.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TRF
All the numbers I posted were what they did. I don't care about the position, but that is me. Castellanos had 671 PA's on a team filled with offense and only scored 71 runs, knocking himself in 29 times. He doesn't get on base enough. Fraley played all his OF in RF and he was DH after he returned to the lineup. Benson took over RF after Fraley got hurt.
My point is, a strict platoon of Senzel or any other RHH that mashes LHP, and either Benson or Fraley, with the same total PA's, outproduces him by a country mile. More HR's, more doubles, more triples, more walks, better defense. All from one position + occasionally DH. I say this believing 100% that Spenser Steer is now the everyday LF.
Castellanos biggest plus was he stayed healthy. Past that, he's a smidge overrated. Especially, it seems, by himself. But cocky can be good too.
Yea I take a so called Overrated Castellanos with 5 post season honeruns. He hits and hits both leftys and rightys.. goodness overrated my a$$
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Lucas Sims, great at strikeouts but walked 5.75 per nine. I’d think twice before offering arb..
Sims led the team in holds, he had a .163 BAVG against, he's allowed to walk some people.
Not offering him ~3M$ via arb is baseball malpractice IMHO.
Especially if you're already losing other relievers from the pen - i.e. Farmer (the only reliever on the club with a lower WHIP in 2023).
---Good luck replacing an ERA+ 150 RP for 3M this winter.
I don't care if they sign 10 relievers this winter too 1-4M$ deals, there will very likely be 2-3 on the DL at any given moment in 2024. 200 guys coming out of spring camps are on the DL, the Reds suck year in year out not because they don't have some good ballplayers but because they have zero depth to replace them when they do ultimately get injured. The only issue is 40 man spots over the winter. I'd rather carry a 1 year proven reliever over a Hawkins or Barrero.
And if the Reds can't afford to eat a couple 2M$ deals in a worst case scenario they need to get out of the baseball business.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Plus Plus
What do you think Rhys Hoskins gets on the open market after missing the year? I wonder if he could be an interesting target for a team with (self-imposed) financial constratints.
A lot. 4/60 at least, presuming his medicals clear.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Redsfan6272
Yea I take a so called Overrated Castellanos with 5 post season honeruns. He hits and hits both leftys and rightys.. goodness overrated my a$$
No, TRF's take is accurate. Castellanos put up a career year (140 wRC+) in Cinci three seasons ago, but that's not really who he is. Since that season, he's posted over 1,200 PA of average performance (102 wRC+ for 2022-2023 combined), being worth 3.8 runs below average over that span. I mean, there's value in average performance, but Castellanos is being paid right now for what he did in that magical Reds season, not for what he's done since. To compare, the Reds had 8 guys who put up a wRC+ between 98 and 128 this season. The guy has been extremely inconsistent from year to year, is walk-allergic, and doesn't really offer much in the way of run-generation that the Reds don't already have on their roster. And his 5 longballs in this year's playoffs, are more likely a course correction than anything else because until this season the guy has been absolute dreck in the postseason.
So yeah. Overrated. And not just by a little.
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...r/71234172007/
Read this, I’m not commenting yet as I haven’t had coffee yet and I want to make sure I read what I think I read (read the quotes not the speculation)
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LeatherPants
It doesn't really say anything that isn't obvious. You could make a summary of any of about 10 threads on here and get the same article without talking to anyone in the Reds front office. About the only thing noteworthy is buried at the bottom with Krall saying they've had no discussion about India or EDLC moving to the OF.
Seems like a writer saying "I don't have anything new to say, so I'll just rehash the obvious and call it news."
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mth123
It doesn't really say anything that isn't obvious. You could make a summary of any of about 10 threads on here and get the same article without talking to anyone in the Reds front office. About the only thing noteworthy is buried at the bottom with Krall saying they've had no discussion about India or EDLC moving to the OF.
Seems like a writer saying "I don't have anything new to say, so I'll just rehash the obvious and call it news."
There's been a lot of talk of brining someone like Sonny Gray in, but if you read the actual quotes in the article, it's not going to happen. They're going to look where they are at the end of spring training.
Quote:
“We have so many young players,” Krall said. “It’s about continuing to have them improve. That’s the biggest thing. You can go out and get this or this. We have so many young players that having those players improve year over year is going to determine where we are success wise.”
Re: Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason
There's not even the customary "we'll have some payroll room to play with", in fact, there's nothing about payroll in there at all. They aren't going to come close to the 2023 payroll, IMO.
