Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
His perceived value on this board is out of whack and that's expected - think about what a top 100 player is...it's Amir Garrett (he's probably in 100 as of right now). There's no way a team gives you salary relief and Amir Garrett for Jay Bruce. I still believe it will be salary relief and a player 11-15 will be offered and the Reds will not accept it based upon a fan base that perceives Bruce to be worth more than 0.8 WAR bref. I really wish they'd do it - the perception is they're tanking - might as well go ahead and jump.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cooper
His perceived value on this board is out of whack and that's expected - think about what a top 100 player is...it's Amir Garrett (he's probably in 100 as of right now). There's no way a team gives you salary relief and Amir Garrett for Jay Bruce. I still believe it will be salary relief and a player 11-15 will be offered and the Reds will not accept it based upon a fan base that perceives Bruce to be worth more than 0.8 WAR bref. I really wish they'd do it - the perception is they're tanking - might as well go ahead and jump.
If a team grades out Jay Bruce as a non awful defender and is in the market for an outfielder, I believe they would be fools to turn down 1.5 years of control of that straight up for a guy with as much development left as Garrett. Don't get me wrong, I like Garrett and get his upside. But there are plenty of guys in his shoes that have failed to become adequate major league players. His chances are less than 50%. Bruce is affordable and producing very, very well. That is real production happening in real time. Contending teams value that highly.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Around $5 million for half a season of Bruce isn’t salary relief, thats called good value. Bruce has been a top 30 offensive player (minimum) this season and is under control for multiple years. It’s gonna take at least a top 100 prospect for that, maybe even top 50. Its an offensively starved league and one contender will pay a premium price for Bruce. And if not? Hold on to him and trade him next trade deadline or keep him and get the draft pick. Or extend him if he keeps on producing. But don’t give him away for “salary relief” when he is finally producing at an elite level.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CRDB40
I don't disagree about the 3 prospects. I think it's more likely to expect the Reds to secure a couple B level prospects instead of 3 true prospect types.
However, with how Bruce is producing, I don't think that salary relief is a major factor in a trade at this point.
He's going to be paid, what, about $6MM the rest of this season, with $13MM next season on the option (or $1MM on the buyout). That's not a huge financial commitment to most teams that would pursue him.
The team that trades for Bruce is going to be a team that is looking to win this season. A team that is willing to give up young talent in exchange for a player who can help them this season. Paying that player approximately $7MM (if they only want him this season and then buy him out for 2017) or $19MM (for this season and next) is not going to dramatically move the meter in terms of the prospects exchanged. If they don't buy him out, and the QO system is still in place after 2017, then that club can attempt a QO and try to recoup a prospect.
For the Reds, I don't think the salary dump is really a factor anymore. Yes, it was during this past offseason when it looked like Bruce's career was going down the drain due to injury. Paying $25+MM to Bruce at that time looked like a contract that was extremely distasteful for a rebuilding club - which is why they were trying to unload him for a very minimal package in that failed TOR-LAA-CIN deal. That was a pure salary dump. But, as he's rebounded, his salary for the Reds the rest of this season and next is manageable. An extension from the Reds, in my opinion, would be mismanagement, but if he continues to produce like this, that's not a terrible contract for the Reds. You could try to trade him again next season, or you could take whatever compensation is in place following 2017.
If you think teams are taking Bruce simply as salary relief, then a trade makes little sense. The return you get would be minimal, and probably wouldn't be worth anything more than the nothing you'd get if you hang onto him, he tanks the rest of his contract, and you let him go.
I really don't believe "salary relief" is anything more than a minimal factor in trading Bruce at this time. I think his rebound in value has put that to rest.
I agree with all this logic, but I think the Reds have prioritized saving cash over actually trying to win. It explains the off-season moves and the lack of reinvesting the savings into a decent arm who could have helped anchor the ship and been that trade piece that the team is lacking now. I don't think the Reds will accept any deal that requires them to eat any money even if the prospect return is substantially higher by paying a couple of million.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
The Reds have to spend money eventually and I'd rather spend it on a familiar quantity than in FA with Jay
But, if the Reds decide in favor of Brucexit (lol), Amir Garrett or what Robert Stephenson is now is pretty much what I'd need back before I'd deal him.
I might kick in SOME money from my end if I'm the Reds, but not much. He doesn't really cost much for his hitting caliber and the other team gets a choice whether or not they want to keep him for an extra season.
EDIT: and I really don't think there are that many sure things in the system OF prospect wise. I'd rather keep the Bruce in the hand than the one in the bush leagues.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wonderful Monds
The Reds have to spend money eventually and I'd rather spend it on a familiar quantity than in FA with Jay
But, if the Reds decide in favor of Brucexit (lol), Amir Garrett or what Robert Stephenson is now is pretty much what I'd need back before I'd deal him.
I might kick in SOME money from my end if I'm the Reds, but not much. He doesn't really cost much for his hitting caliber and the other team gets a choice whether or not they want to keep him for an extra season.
EDIT: and I really don't think there are that many sure things in the system OF prospect wise. I'd rather keep the Bruce in the hand than the one in the bush leagues.
You are going to be one of those guys REDREAD was talking about that will be disappointed in the Reds' return for Bruce. I would set your expectations at receiving a top-100 prospect for Bruce ... not top-50.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cooper
His perceived value on this board is out of whack and that's expected - think about what a top 100 player is...it's Amir Garrett (he's probably in 100 as of right now). There's no way a team gives you salary relief and Amir Garrett for Jay Bruce. I still believe it will be salary relief and a player 11-15 will be offered and the Reds will not accept it based upon a fan base that perceives Bruce to be worth more than 0.8 WAR bref. I really wish they'd do it - the perception is they're tanking - might as well go ahead and jump.
I actually think it's the exact opposite. People here are so hung up on what Jay Bruce wasn't in 2014 and 2015 compared to expectations that they value him less than pretty much any objective source. I think for anyone outside the 275 loop, he's the #1 available bat. Nobody is concerned about Bruce's salary when they need an impact hitter. I don't believe for a second a team looking for a hitter would balk over Amir Garrett for Jay Bruce.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
One issue with Bruce being traded is that the FA class this off-season is very weak. Do not expect him to be replaced from outside the organization except through a trade.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
klw
One issue with Bruce being traded is that the FA class this off-season is very weak. Do not expect him to be replaced from outside the organization except through a trade.
Agree which may push us to target an OF as return. Personally the idea of Duvall/Billy/Winker doesn't bother me that much for 2017.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
klw
One issue with Bruce being traded is that the FA class this off-season is very weak. Do not expect him to be replaced from outside the organization except through a trade.
That also makes his trade value higher
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Raisor
That also makes his trade value higher
That's a bingo.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cooper
His perceived value on this board is out of whack and that's expected - think about what a top 100 player is...it's Amir Garrett (he's probably in 100 as of right now). There's no way a team gives you salary relief and Amir Garrett for Jay Bruce. I still believe it will be salary relief and a player 11-15 will be offered and the Reds will not accept it based upon a fan base that perceives Bruce to be worth more than 0.8 WAR bref. I really wish they'd do it - the perception is they're tanking - might as well go ahead and jump.
I'd be thrilled to death to get a prospect like Garrett back for Bruce.
I would be happy with a prospect similar to Mella (who was a top 150 prospect by Sickels before the season started last year).
I agree that the Reds should not accept nothing but salary relief for Bruce. totally agree with you.. A prospect with a solid chance to contribute for Bruce helps the Reds move forward.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wonderful Monds
EDIT: and I really don't think there are that many sure things in the system OF prospect wise. I'd rather keep the Bruce in the hand than the one in the bush leagues.
I still look for Winker's power to come around once the wrist issue clears up (albeit possibly not until next Spring). He'll probably have some adjustment issues the first half of his rookie year, but I look for him to eventually settle in as a high-.OBP option at the top of the Reds rotation. I'm really starting to get excited about Aquino as well, but even if he does pan out he most likely won't be helping the big club until sometime in 2018. This is why I'd really like to see the Reds add another young OFer. If they can't then I'm fine with keeping Bruce until the end of the season and buying him out. If he defies the odds and maintains his current performance level I might regretfully pick up the option, but there's no friggin' way I extend him beyond his current deal.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
I actually believe that Verdugo is about as fair a return for Bruce at his current production level as any I've seen. I'd like to see each team expand things by adding another piece or two.
Re: Royals interested in Bruce?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
swaisuc
Agree which may push us to target an OF as return. Personally the idea of Duvall/Billy/Winker doesn't bother me that much for 2017.
So why trade him then? You already have the OF you need with Bruce. Trading him for an OF prospect is just an unnecessary gamble.
