Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Kc61
Regardless of any comparison to Byrd, the issues for Bruce are IMO more dollar and market issues, perhaps less of a baseball issue.
On the baseball side, I think there's a fair argument he will come back next season with more power and hitting the ball with more authority. He'll be two years away from his knee issue, which seems to have had a serious impact. But, like any turnaround, it's speculative.
The other question is simply whether the Reds can devote $12.5MM to him next year and are likely to exercise a $13MM option the next year. And, if not, whether he can bring a reasonable trade return.
If Jay were a $6MM player, I think it would be an easy call to keep him another year. If he were a $18MM player, an easy call to trade him at all costs. He's somewhere in between, so it's more complicated.
I agree with the majority of this post. If you have read my posts in other threads, you will know that I think/hope Bob goes for it in 2016. If the Reds can add Parra in left and Cueto to the rotation, I think the Reds have a chance to compete in 2016. If the Reds want to compete in 2016, I think the Reds hold on Bruce. If the plan is to tank 2016, I would be more open to dealing Bruce, but I still think I would prefer to deal him during a hot streak and not now when his value is low.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
No. Jay Bruce was below a replacement level player in 2014. He was better than a replacement level player in 2015.
You keep making this mistake.
Over the past two years, Bruce has a WAR of -.8.
That is below replacement level.
This year, he "earned" 0.1 WAR.
Semantics, they name is doug
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
Over the past two years, Bruce has a WAR of -.8.
That is below replacement level.
This year, he "earned" 0.1 WAR.
Semantics, they name is doug
So Joey Votto is a 4 win player? I mean over the past two years his WAR is 8. Divide that by two its 4.
It's not semantics. You're wrong.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Wait, did you really classify a 0.1 WAR as "above replacement level" or am I misreading that?
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
reds44
Wait, did you really classify a 0.1 WAR as "above replacement level" or am I misreading that?
Well, I don't exactly buy that he was 0.1 WAR either. B-Ref has him at 0.8, which seems a lot more realistic. I just don't buy that Bruce was a -11.2 fielder that Fangraphs says he was.
So I guess you aren't misreading. I just didn't state my entire belief. Bruce is closer to a win above replacement than he is to replacement. Bruce posted a 97 OPS+ this season. Essentially, he's a league average bat. Somehow his defense is so bad that he's a replacement level player? Sorry, I don't buy that. If he were THAT bad, it would be glaringly obvious. Did anyone else sit down and think "Jay Bruce is one of the worst defenders in baseball"? If you didn't, then it's hard to argue he's a replacement level player in 2015.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
What is Bruce's average WAR over the last 5 years if you subtract the at-bats where he received a walk or hit? My feeling is he'd be below replacement level for all those years too.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
WAR and defense... the devil in the details that no one can validate or agree on.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
So Joey Votto is a 4 win player? I mean over the past two years his WAR is 8. Divide that by two its 4.
It's not semantics. You're wrong.
0.1 WAR = not replacement level
Semantics.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Is a wOBA of .308 essentially a league average bat this year? How about for a right fielder?
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RiverRat13
Is a wOBA of .308 essentially a league average bat this year? How about for a right fielder?
Among all qualified OFers, that ranks 44th of 54.
Among the top 30 RFers, it ranks 25th.
Over the past two years, he ranks dead last among all qualified (1000 ABs) RFers and 39th (of 41) total OFers. His wOBA ranks him second-to-last among all OFers over the past two years. He's been 15% below league average.
None of those rank defense at all.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
Among all qualified OFers, that ranks 44th of 54.
Among the top 30 RFers, it ranks 25th.
Over the past two years, he ranks dead last among all qualified (1000 ABs) RFers and 39th (of 41) total OFers. His wOBA ranks him second-to-last among all OFers over the past two years. He's been 15% below league average.
None of those rank defense at all.
Again, 2014 and 2015 were very different years.
In 2014 he stunk up the joint. BRef and Fangraphs had him at -1.1 and -0.9 WAR. They agreed, he was really, really bad.
In 2015 that wasn't the case. BRef had him at 0.8. Fangraphs had him at 0.1. The difference? One thought he was ever so slightly below-average in the field and the other thought he was atrocious. You tell me what you think about Jay Bruce's defense. Is he terrible, or probably average? If you think he's a terrible defender, then sure, he's a replacement player. If you think he's probably average, then he's not a replacement player.
Take a stance. What kind of defender do you think he is?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
0.1 WAR = not replacement level
Semantics.
0.8 WAR = not replacement level.
Not semantics.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
Again, 2014 and 2015 were very different years.
In 2014 he stunk up the joint. BRef and Fangraphs had him at -1.1 and -0.9 WAR. They agreed, he was really, really bad.
In 2015 that wasn't the case. BRef had him at 0.8. Fangraphs had him at 0.1. The difference? One thought he was ever so slightly below-average in the field and the other thought he was atrocious. You tell me what you think about Jay Bruce's defense. Is he terrible, or probably average? If you think he's a terrible defender, then sure, he's a replacement player. If you think he's probably average, then he's not a replacement player.
Take a stance. What kind of defender do you think he is?
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0.8 WAR = not replacement level.
Not semantics.
It appears you are taking a stance in using bWAR. Shall I assume that is what you will be using from here on? I thought you were a fWAR guy.
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kaldaniels
It appears you are taking a stance in using bWAR. Shall I assume that is what you will be using from here on? I thought you were a fWAR guy.
I'm usually a fWAR guy for position players. I don't really care much about WAR for pitchers. Both equations assume things that I'm not really buying into completely.
But, when the defensive values don't pass the sniff test, look at bWAR and see what it says. Adjust accordingly. When one says that Jay Bruce is an absolutely terrible defender and the other says he's ever-so-slightly below-average, I'm taking the one that seems to jive with what we all probably believe to be true on it. Unless I've missed something, we aren't all believing that Jay Bruce is an absolutely terrible defender, right?
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
So Jay was 44th out of 54 OFers in wOBA and, at best, a slightly below average defender.
Weeeeeeeeee!
Re: The Jay Bruce Watch and Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dougdirt
I'm usually a fWAR guy for position players. I don't really care much about WAR for pitchers. Both equations assume things that I'm not really buying into completely.
But, when the defensive values don't pass the sniff test, look at bWAR and see what it says. Adjust accordingly. When one says that Jay Bruce is an absolutely terrible defender and the other says he's ever-so-slightly below-average, I'm taking the one that seems to jive with what we all probably believe to be true on it. Unless I've missed something, we aren't all believing that Jay Bruce is an absolutely terrible defender, right?
I saw him butcher several plays this year. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a poor defensive season happened.
The last play I recall him making good or bad was late season where he jumped for a ball like it was going to clear the fence but it hit midway off the wall. While that does l not prove a thing, I still think he quite possibly had an awful year in the field.
