Maybe throw in a middling pitching prospect for two of (3B) Hunter Dozier, (OF) Bubba Starling, (OF) Jorge Banafacio or (1B/OF) Ryan O'Hearn
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Maybe throw in a middling pitching prospect for two of (3B) Hunter Dozier, (OF) Bubba Starling, (OF) Jorge Banafacio or (1B/OF) Ryan O'Hearn
Getting just Peraza for Frazier was downright garbage. I have no faith in the Reds FO. So trading Bruce and Cozart is fine with me, but don't expect much
They'll probably demand Jumbo Delabar. Or Blake Somsen.
The Frazier trade looks terrible, but no credit for all the other trades that look fine or great?Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO
I'd want Alec mills AA rhp, and one of bonafacio, dozier or hunter
Lazy question ... How are the prospects the White Sox sent to the Dodgers in the Frazier trade doing so far this season?
Trayce Thompson (LAD/MLB): .280/.343/.559 with 7 HR/19 RBI in 102 PAQuote:
Originally Posted by osuceltic
Micah Johnson (OKC/AAA): .262/.300/.326
Frankie Montas (TUL/AA): 2 IP/2 K/1 BB/1 HRA (working his way back after opening season on DL)
The Royals system has very, very few players I'd be interested in anymore. I'm not overly fond of Mondesi, but you aren't getting him for Bruce. I'm not a fan of Dozier, or Starling, or Almonte, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by corkedbat
I guess if that's the trade partner, I'd like to see them get guys like Nolan Watson, Chase Vallot, or O'Hearn. Josh Staumont would be an interesting wildcard, if anyone could team him how to throw the ball over the plate.
Thompson is OPSing .902 in 93 ab's in LA (7 HR's)Quote:
Originally Posted by osuceltic
Montas is on a rehab assignment
Johnson is in AAA hitting .262 and not getting on base.
These rumors are the beginning of the dance that usually takes us to July.
We'll hear all kinds of rumors over the next two months involving Bruce and Cozart, primarily.
Given the Reds' recent history, I think Bruce will certainly be traded by the deadline. They will take the best deal they can get. If the Reds are dissatisfied with the offers, they will still trade him.
His value is enhanced by his uptick offensively, but his UZR rating is brutal and that may hurt with some clubs.
In Cozart's case, again based on the Reds' recent history, they will dangle him but the may choose to keep him. They control him for a bit longer and he brings stability to the Reds' infield. Anyone interested in Cozart will have to come up with a meaningful package in return.
I hope so. The sooner we get rid of Jay, the better for this team. He's just a slump away from reminding everyone he's a .230 hitter with subpar defense. Trade him while he's still hitting OK, and particularly to an AL team, which would be preferable for Bruce, since he could periodically DH (and relieve his knees and depreciating outfield range of his presence). Problem is, who would the Reds get in return? I'm not sure if the Royals have that player, and at this point it would likely be a salary dump from a potential 100-loss team. I don't think this would go like a potential Cozart trade (who is an outstanding fielder, playing the second most important defensive position on the field, and as such will command a higher return in any exchange of talent).
There should be no agonizing over the return for Bruce. His numbers for the last two years have been miserable. This year, his offense is back up there, but the defensive metrics are poor. He simply is not the player, and lacks the value, he was and had back in 2010-12.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedFanT
A team looking for a hitter in the stretch drive should give up a solid prospect for Bruce, although not a top prospect. One solid prospect and maybe a throw in.
At this point, I'd take a future bullpen arm for Bruce, or some B prospect.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedFanT
I know this goes against popular sentiment, but I think at this stage of the Red's cycle, Cozart is more valuable to the Reds than Bruce is.
Cozart buys time for the Reds to play Peraza at SS in AAA (if that is still the plan, to try Peraza at SS). Cozart helps the defense (less pitches for this tired staff)
Bruce has no impact defensively, and if we fall back on the whole "Who cares about this year".. then the runs Bruce adds to the run differential really don't matter either.. The pen will blow the lead anyhow.
I'd take a pack of Slim Jims, so long as we can get rid of Bruce's salary. Any prospect, even a B prospect, would be a major win. This season, when everyone thinks that we have the 'old' Jay back because of his offense, well, he has a -0.1 WAR because of his statue-like range in the outfield. It is absolutely killing all other aspects of his game, even his decent start on offense. What that means is that for Jay to be even a replacement level player, he's going to need to have an .880 or so OPS. That is unsustainable (he's never had an OPS for a season above .846). At this point, Jay's range is such a problem, I would be offering him up to an AL team (i.e., with the DH), looking for a bat (hoping against hope they're only looking at his 2016 numbers and not paying close attention to the previous two years).Quote:
Originally Posted by REDREAD
Brooks Pounders would be an interesting secondary prospect. Good heat, throws strikes, big-bodied guy. Reminds me a bit of Eric Gagne (without the 'roids).Quote:
Originally Posted by schroomytunes
I want the secondary piece in any deal for Bruce to be a quality bullpen arm. A Nick Masset if you will.
I dunno about the thread title, but I do know Bruce is interested in "Royals"...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfJvrH7iQ3c
I was hoping for a prospect of some sort and Bubba Starling - don't see him as much more than a lottery ticket any more (one with a mediocre jackpot), but I'd still give him a shot).
I'm over Starling, he's going on 24 and still isn't hitting. Bonifacio is still 22 and is off to a good start, and Dozier looks like he's finally showing signs of life after tanking for a year and a half in AA.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/...as-city-royals
Would the Blue Jays still be interested in Jay? We know there was a deal in place in the offseason. I wonder if they're still interested enough to give the Reds a decent prospect for Bruce.
I keep trying to talk myself into that trade (because I genuinely like Peraza) but there is no question in my mind the Reds didn't get full value for Frazier. People said Frazier wouldn't maintain his power after leaving GABP. Well, he has 13 HRs already this season with an OPS of .830. Imagine his value right now on the open market. You think the Reds could get more than just Jose Peraza and a couple scrub throw-ins for him? You better believe it.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO
And I'm not going to be happy when the Yankees fall out of the race (if they haven't fallen out of it already) and end up trading Chapman at the deadline ... and get more in return for him than we got from them. Rookie Davis looks good, but his K numbers are very low and did we really need another AA pitcher as the main piece in a deal for a prime trading chip? Jagielo, the other main part of the trade, is awful defensively and offensively (at least he's been awful offensively through 8 weeks this season).
At least the Cueto and Leake trades are looking great for the Reds. Otherwise, the rebuilding process would take longer than anyone expected. Trading Frazier for Peraza (right after the Chapman-for-Peraza deal fell through) was a complete panic move by the Reds. I said it at the time and it's even more evident today. Like I said, I keep trying to talk myself into that trade, but the Reds should have gotten more for Frazier. I'd feel different if 2016 was his final year under team control. But he was under control through 2017, which greatly helped his value. Or, at least would have if the Reds didn't panic.
Please let's not let the trading Bruce thread devolve back into another Frazier trade/ FO competency thread. That horse has been beaten to some realm past death on this board. We are where we are, let's talk about moving forward.
Maybe it's me, but I don't recall anyone doubting Frazier's ability to hit for power. They did and do doubt his ability to find 1B. Low average, few walks. We are 8 weeks in to this season, and I'd really rather the Reds got the White Sox prospects over the Dodgers (#TeamSchebler), but It can still even out.
meh.
Even Batman can't stop that from happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Elam
If you believe Hunter Dozier's blistering start is for real, then he's probably a prime target.
But he would tryQuote:
Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski
Attachment 10863
In all seriousness I wouldn't mind talking about the value (or lack there of) of Bruce's defense. I've seen it mentioned a few times around the interwebs as a detractor to his trade value and most defensive metrics hate him (he has a -9 UZR so far his year). But is it really that bad and would it affect his value that much?
I did not realize Jay Bruce was having such a horrendous defensive season.
-8 DRS
-9.0 UZR
-34.0 UZR/150
-10.7 DEF rating
As a result of his horrible defense his fWAR is actually -0.2
Trade this guy ASAP. His trade value is going to plummet sooner rather than later.
I like every other trade before the Frazier deal. I admit that. Chapman was awful as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by swaisuc
The Yankees have never really been known as a team to unload players at the deadline, so I wouldn't count on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
As far as Bruce's defense goes, the whole thing is a bit shocking to me. Aren't we just a few years removed from him being an elite level defender? He had a very strong arm and was known as a cerebral defender who got great jumps and took great angles to help compensate for average speed.
Did he just "get old" that quickly?
I would also try to trade him ASAP (because if a team needs a hitter now why bother waiting?) but I don't think the defense will play a huge role one way or the other in another team's decision.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Understood, but he will inevitably have a cold streak, and then he will be a bad fielder and bad hitter. His trade value right now is likely at it's peak for the 2016 season. He needs to be traded this week.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Defensive metrics in May are about as reliable as the Reds bullpen.
The Reds bullpen is very reliable. Just in a negative way.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
Very true, I've read that UZR is better take as an average but should always be taken with a grain of salt because its sorting criteria may do something an observer may disagree with. Regardless, I imagine Bruce grades out as an average defender in most people's eyes.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
If Bruce is average, then one must ask whether defensive metrics have any utility at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Elam
Out of respect for the player, I'm not going to repeat his UZR rating, but it is very, very low.
Yes, UZR is best used in a larger sample. But it's hard for me to imagine that any GM in baseball would ignore Jay's defensive rating in trade discussions.
Alex Gordon was placed on the 15 day DL today with a wrist injury. Might serve as a catalyst for the Reds.
Bruce for Hunter Dozier and Jorge Bonafacio works for me.
Uh, yeah. That'd work really well, but that seems like a whole bunch for the Red RF.Quote:
Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
Add in Cozart, and maybe you get that package (and perhaps one more prospect).
I find your claimed line of thinking on defensive metrics quite ironic, considering that you thought we shouldn't have paid attention to Jay's post-July offensive collapse in 2015 (preferring to concentrate on what he did earlier in the season when judging him). Funny thing those numbers, they tend to have a way of elucidating and illuminating through people's subjective opinions. So, here, let me fix that for you: this is Jay's UZRs since 2014 (2014, -6.1; 2015, -4.2, 2016, -9). That's a -19.3 UZR in almost 2,800 defensive innings. Maybe his range is as streaky as his hitting (a post-injury/2+ season-long streak, that is).Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
I'm sure teams aren't ignoring his defensive rating/value in trade discussions. But, I'd be shocked if any team is using UZR or any other stat we've got access to. They've got data from the last year and a half that's tracking these guys movements via radar. We've got data based on a zone drawn on a field and some dude saying that's a fly ball and he caught it here. We're playing tic-tac-toe and they're playing chess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61