Welcome to the inaugural Old Red Guard weekly discussion thread! This will be a new idea implemented for this forum to help promote discussion and recognize high-quality contributions.
Discussion will be expected to remain on the topic posted in the initial post of the thread. Readers are encouraged to like posts that they feel are quality contributions to the discussion at hand. After one week, the RedsZone member who has the post with the most likes will be recognized in the thread, and the user will have a trophy posted in their user signature with a link to the post that was identified as the best contribution to the weekly discussion.
For our first discussion, the topic will be recent Reds' draft picks. Discussion might contain analysis of draft trends, how the previous draft picks worked out, ways that the Reds could succeed or fail in the 2018 draft, or any related information. Here are the Reds first round picks from 2004 (the year that Homer Bailey was drafted). I apologize for formatting errors; if anyone can make this more readable, please let me know!
Year
Player
Position
School
2004
Homer Bailey
Right-handed pitcher
La Grange High School
2005
Jay Bruce
Outfielder
West Brook Senior High School
2006
Drew Stubbs
Outfielder
University of Texas at Austin
2007
Devin Mesoraco
Catcher
Punxsutawney Area High School
2007
Todd Frazier
Third baseman
Rutgers University–New Brunswick
2007
Kyle Lotzkar
Right-handed pitcher
South Delta Secondary School
2008
Yonder Alonso
First baseman
University of Miami
2009
Mike Leake
Right-handed pitcher
Arizona State University
2009
Bradley Boxberger
Right-handed pitcher
University of Southern California
2010
Yasmani Grandal
Catcher
University of Miami
2011
Robert Stephenson
Right-handed pitcher
Alhambra High School
2012
Nick Travieso
Right-handed pitcher
Archbishop Edward A. McCarthy High School
2012
Jesse Winker
Outfielder
Olympia High School
2012
Jeff Gelalich
Outfielder
University of California
2013
Phillip Ervin
Outfielder
Samford University
2013
Michael Lorenzen
Right-handed pitcher
California State University - Fullerton
2014
Nick Howard
Right-handed pitcher
University of Virginia
2014
Alex Blandino
Shortstop
Stanford University
2015
Tyler Stephenson
Catcher
Kennesaw Mountain High School
2016
Nick Senzel
Third Baseman
University of Tennessee
2016
Taylor Trammell
Outfielder
Mount Paran Christian School
2017
Hunter Greene
Right-handed pitcher
Notre Dame High School
2017
Jeter Downs
Shortstop
Monsignor Edward Pace High School
Looking forward to seeing how our first weekly discussion thread works out! Please PM me with any suggestions for future discussion topics.
If anybody has ever been able to figure out a particular pattern, I'll give them a shiny dime because I really haven't. It is clear from past comments as well as the proof in the pudding that the Reds like college players who perform well in the Cape Cod League (which makes sense as it shows an ability to hit with a wooden bat), and for a while they were into the controversial 'closers who they wanted to turn into starters' thing, but that's about it. I guess they do like catchers though.
That 2007 draft, with adding Cozart in the 2nd round, is the stuff you dream of. Three solid or better regulars, boom boom boom just like that. Tremendous. I was 17 at the time and added a lot of those guys on Facebook as friends when they were drafted lol.
2012-2014 is where things get rough, and that's just the first rounds of them. Winker, Lorenzen, Mahle, and Blandino might be the only real production they get out of those drafts. I think the failures of Travieso (who might still carve out a career but obviously not as an impact guy) and Howard (who obviously will not ever make it) show that drafting pitchers is such a crapshoot and unless you have either a Mike Leake polished product or a Hunter Greene type upside there, you're probably better off going with a bat more times than not.
Too early to say from about 2015-on, but I think they've found the sweet spot again for the top picks, I really like all of those guys.
From 2004 to 2010 the players they drafted were pretty good except for Lotzkar. Whatever happened to him BTW? Bust?Injury?......
But after that there is a noticeable drop off of talent. Were there changes in the scouting department at that time? I'm hoping the 2016 and 17 drafts prove to be a turnaround. The Reds can't afford to miss on high picks now especially since they are drafting so high.
Looking at this list points out the difficulty in nailing draft picks. I don't see more success evident in picking college vs. high school talent.
It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
Looking at this list points out the difficulty in nailing draft picks. I don't see more success evident in picking college vs. high school talent.
It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
In terms of guys who are still prospects, Shed Long came in the 12th round. Tucker Barnhart was taken in the 10th round and has turned into something special. Amir Garrett was from the 22nd round, but he signed for $1m, so I don't know if he necessarily counts. I'm sure there are more, but those are just off the top of my head.
It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
That was all Jeff Luhnow, they haven't had as much success in that regard, though they still draft and develop well, since his departure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vander
Amir Garrett was from the 22nd round, but he signed for $1m, so I don't know if he necessarily counts.
And Romano was a round later after Garrett, at $450K.
From 2004 to 2010 the players they drafted were pretty good except for Lotzkar. Whatever happened to him BTW? Bust?Injury?......
But after that there is a noticeable drop off of talent. Were there changes in the scouting department at that time? I'm hoping the 2016 and 17 drafts prove to be a turnaround. The Reds can't afford to miss on high picks now especially since they are drafting so high.
One big reason for a falloff from 12-14 is that the Reds were winning and thus drafting lower in the rounds. It is easier to get a "big talent" with the 2nd pick than the 22nd.
Reds have had only limited success from the top draft choices in the years just preceding the rebuild, 2011-2014. This is not only reflected at the big league level, but also at the AAA and AA levels. The Louisville team is 16-33, Pensacola is 21-31.
While minor league records are not a perfect proxy for drafting success, I'd argue that these are shocking records when one considers that the Reds have been losing and rebuilding for so long. Maybe even more shocking than the MLB record.
But these records probably are more representative of the pre-rebuilding drafts than the more recent drafts. Indeed, the A-ball teams are quite a bit better and obviously are deeper in prospects. Daytona is at 27-20, Dayton 26-24 (although neither has a strong team ERA).
I guess, in a way, this is a hopeful sign that the more recent drafts appear to have been better. But it's not very hopeful in terms of expected major additions to the Reds from the farm in the next year or maybe two. Nick Senzel is obviously the biggest exception.
The biggest thing that stands out at me is, whatever scout that was chief on the Jeff Gelalich train, I sincerely hope is not heavily involved in the process anymore.
Every single other pick I understood the reasoning behind, to some degree. I didn’t necessarily agree with them, but I understood them.
The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesn’t need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesn’t need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).
As for the draft itself, I would suggest that excepting especially special talents the reds have faired better with the college picks. The reds developmental program has been poor for pitchers, and reducing the developmental time to the majors has appeared to bear more fruit.
The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesn’t need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesn’t need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).
I agree with this. And I get it, the idea of trading any of the last few first rounders or top performers certainly makes me cringe a little, but ultimately if you can acquire quality, affordable big league talent for prospects, you have to be willing to make that move at times.
Reds have been good, but not great at drafting in the 1st round. The good is that they turn guys into big leaguers. The not so good is that they have gone a very, very long time at turning anyone in the draft into an actual star player.
From 2000-2010 (55 players in each range). Study conducted in June 2016.
Majors: Appeared in a major league game.
Bust: <1.5 WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances
Successful: 1.5-2.5 WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances
Superior: 2.5+ WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances
Big takeaway: Only 1 in 4 1st rounders turn in to every day players -- at least early in their career. That ranges from about 40% at the top of the first round to less than 20% at the bottom.
It’s a small sample here, but look at the correlation between successful/unsuccessful high picks and the Reds record ~5 years down the road. That’s the main part of the recipe for good Reds baseball - nail your high picks.
The biggest thing that stands out at me is, whatever scout that was chief on the Jeff Gelalich train, I sincerely hope is not heavily involved in the process anymore.
Every single other pick I understood the reasoning behind, to some degree. I didn’t necessarily agree with them, but I understood them.
The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesn’t need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesn’t need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).
As for the draft itself, I would suggest that excepting especially special talents the reds have faired better with the college picks. The reds developmental program has been poor for pitchers, and reducing the developmental time to the majors has appeared to bear more fruit.
The bolded line seems to have been the cornerstone of Walt Jocketty's success as a GM. He wasn't shy about trading prospects to acquire significant pieces for the major league roster. I think part of that came from know that even in a system that develops a lot of in house talent, a good chunk of that eventual production is going to come from guys who never had much trade value as prospects. There's a certain "bird in the hand" logic that makes a lot of sense at times.
To me it looks like we are trending towards drafting on tools and athleticism more so than pure baseball skill and production in the past few years.
From 04-11 Stubbs is the only guy we drafted that Id consider a crazy athlete, maybe Leake as well but he also showed production and polish. Then the next few years we had late picks and kind of went with what was there, I liked the Winker pick and the Ervin pick as well, I’m biased living in BHam but he had/has some tools.
Now recently we appear to be drafting more athleticism, but guys with also an idea of how to play the game. Looking at you Trammel/Senzel.
I’m hopeful, and believe the last few drafts will have produced an above average catcher(Stephenson), well above average to all star 2nd baseman(Senzel), and I’m extremely high on Trammell. I see a 280, 360-370, 450 who can be 15 and 40 guy early in his career then maybe a 20-20 guy as he ages. Then with Greene, it’s gonna take some time but he’s got the arm talent and athleticism.
Not too bad. The start of the list pretty solid and where it gets iffy....those guys are still young enough to make their mark. Very recently looks very formidable.
Not having any of those guys really (right now) contributing from the draft from 2011-2014 is what I'm pointing to as one of the biggest reasons we've looked as bad as we have. There's still time with a lot of those guys so it's not like it's a lost cause but the Reds need to draft consistently well. It also doesn't help that Grandal was traded away and he's one of the better catchers in baseball now and Leake was a free agent so quick.
I realize every team can do this, but if we replace R.Stephenson with Joe Panik, Travieso with Corey Seager, Ervin with Aaron Judge, and Nick Howard with Bradley Zimmer just how much better shape this franchise would be in?
ML Regular- Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonson, Leake, Grandal (8)
ML BU/Relief - Boxberger, Lorenzen, Ervin, Blandino (4)
Bust - Lotzkar, Howard, Gelalich (3)
Still Percolating - Stephenson, Winker, Travieso, T Stephenson, Senzel, Trammell, Greene, Downs (8)
Of 23 first round picks since 04, 8 have made it as ML regulars (not all while with the Reds)
4 have made the majors in more limited roles, 3 have been outright busts, and 8 are still in the learning curve (though Stephenson and Winker are very near and have to prove themselves real soon)
I don't think the Reds have done much worse than almost all ML teams in getting regulars and bench players from their top picks - the burn is the fact that none have become star players. You'd think in 14 years they would have at least #1 pick who became a consistent star impact player. Bailey and Bruce just don't make the grade although they were very good in their best seasons. Of course they have Votto, a second rounder but the #1s have been decidedly ho-hum. Sure hope a couple three of the last 5 guys on that "still percolating" list can break the mold.
The 2007, 2009 and 2016 drafts were outstanding.
The 2006 and 2010 drafts were OK.
The 2011 and 2013 drafts might end up tolerable.
2015 and 2017 have good potential.
The 2012 and 2014 drafts were huge whiffs. I hated those two drafts at the time, and unfortunately history has proven those fears correct. 2011 and 2013 could still end up in that category, although they have more hope (2013 could produce three major league pitchers in Lorenzen, Lively and Mahle), and I'm a sucker for Robert Stephenson (who along with Cingrani) could still give that draft two major league pitchers.
In addition to not being able to draft and develop a superstar, the other pock mark on Buckley's resume is his general inability to find major leaguers after the first 100 picks. It's not easy for anyone, but I'd venture the Reds track record is worse than most teams on Day 2 (rounds 3-10). Tyler Mahle has been a lone bright spot since 2009. Tucker Barnhart and Justin Turner were late bloomers before that.
The 2007, 2009 and 2016 drafts were outstanding.
The 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010 drafts were OK.
2015 and 2017 have good potential.
2011-2014 was a huge miss. I hated the 2012-2014 drafts at the time, but admittedly liked (and still like) Robert Stephenson. I'm glad they didn't because he seems to have bounced back nicely, but it's pretty remarkable Buckley wasn't fired in 2015 or early 2016 after flubbing four drafts in a row. I feel like most other organizations would have booted him at that point, even despite his success in the previous decade.
In addition to not being able to draft and develop a superstar, the other pock mark on Buckley's resume is his general inability to find major leaguers after the first 100 picks. It's not easy for anyone, but I'd venture the Reds track record is worse than most teams on Day 2 (rounds 3-10). Tyler Mahle has been a lone bright spot so far.
I'm only looking at round 3 because I don't have a ton of time right this second. But from 2006-2014 here's how the numbers stack up:
Total 3rd rounders to make the Major Leagues (who signed as 3rd rounders - some guys, like Matt Harvey for example, were drafted as 3rd rounders but didn't sign and were later drafted and signed and made the Majors): 104.
Total 3rd rounders with more than 3.0 WAR: 19
Best 3rd round picks: Kyle Seager, Jonathan Lucroy, Craig Kimbrell, Danny Duffy, Joe Smith, Zach Britton, JT Realmuto (this ends the list of players with 10+ WAR).
Team with the most big leaguers from the 3rd round: The Reds and the Brewers have 6. The Brewers got 20.1 WAR from Lucroy and 3.9 from Tyler Thornburg. The Reds got 2.4 from Cingrani.
No team had more than two players with more than 2.0 WAR from the 3rd round. The Nationals and Royals were the only teams that had two guys above 5.0 (Espinosa, Souza - Duffy, Myers).
Drafts, in any sport, are pretty much a crap shoot. A lot of variables involved, such as ... where they played? what was the level of competition? You look at an 18-19 year old kid and you see talent (potential). And that's about the only thing you can get right at this stage. The successive stages aren't so certain. You throw them in the system to see if that potential can be developed, and they progress.
I look at the provided list and, IMO, I see a few guys that have had success at the ML level ... Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Yonder, and Grandal.
There could be sound argument that Bailey shouldn't be there (LOL). I always liked Leake, and he's had consistent success at this level, and for 9 years (career numbers not too shabby, respectable). Definitely a better career then Homer. Bruce would be the top of the class IMO. The rest, for the most part, may still be playing at this level, but they never rose to the level we thought they would, and are getting tossed around the league.
Then I go back a few more years to 1997, and 1st round pick Brandon Larson. Boy was this kid hyped, and we all know what happened there (LOL). But check out this article, from this past January, on Larson. Quite impressive testimony, and perspective on it all, by this young man.... http://cincinnatireds.blog.daytondai...randon-larson/
And I don't fault the Reds management for that (due to the above). I bet if you looked at most organization's draft history there would be far more busts then real success.
The Reds top 3ish prospects in their entire org over the last 5-8 years are:
Billy
Stephenson
Winker
All three..massively flawed individual players (In multiple areas) that seemingly didn't develop or improve any of their lesser skills while in the minors.
How can anyone be confident that even players like Senz, Greene or India will ever shine in the majors? Green has a nearly 7 era, Senz hitting .260s w 790 ops
And, I can tell you are one of those "well if you just removed his two 4 ER starts and his 7 ER start, his era in the other games is 2.8." kinda guys
I can tell you're a "brave truth teller" who signed up because he had to tell everyone how he just knows the 18-year-old is a bust because he can read numbers.
I can tell you're a "brave truth teller" who signed up because he had to tell everyone how he just knows the 18-year-old is a bust because he can read numbers.
LOl. Nahh, just a fan who has seen the last 3-4#1 overall org prospects (Before Senzel) all become single dimensional, flawed players/busts.
Mes
Hamilton
Stephenson
WInker
0 for 4.
But, I bet you can't wait to tell me that if you subtract Billys 0-5 PA games (It's only 15% of his games!) His BA and OBP each skyrocket up to .288 and .339 respectively. You seem like a big numbers guy when it's convenient for your straw man argument, ha.
LOl. Nahh, just a fan who has seen the last 3-4#1 overall org prospects (Before Senzel) all become single dimensional, flawed players/busts.
Mes
Hamilton
Stephenson
WInker
0 for 4.
But, I bet you can't wait to tell me that if you subtract Billys 0-5 PA games (It's only 15% of his games!) His BA and OBP each skyrocket up to .288 and .339 respectively. You seem like a big numbers guy when it's convenient for your straw man argument, ha.
And again, you cant answer my question.
Where is Mesoraco coming from all of a sudden? And when was Billy ever expected to be some great hitter? I was never his biggest fans and have been one of his biggest detractors on here for years, rando.
The question was what, why should you have any confidence in the prospects? I don't give a crap what you have confidence in. I believe that talent ultimately rises to the top. I don't know what's going to happen with Hunter Greene, but I'm not a moron who thinks the first 9.2 innings he pitched in A Ball tell me anything, let alone everything, I need to know.
Where is Mesoraco coming from all of a sudden? And when was Billy ever expected to be some great hitter? I was never his biggest fans and have been one of his biggest detractors on here for years, rando.
The question was what, why should you have any confidence in the prospects? I don't give a crap what you have confidence in. I believe that talent ultimately rises to the top. I don't know what's going to happen with Hunter Greene, but I'm not a moron who thinks the first 9.2 innings he pitched in A Ball tell me anything, let alone everything, I need to know.
I have read your posts on here. You may want to reconsider on that moron label. Just sayin'
The Reds top 3ish prospects in their entire org over the last 5-8 years are:
Billy
Stephenson
Winker
All three..massively flawed individual players (In multiple areas) that seemingly didn't develop or improve any of their lesser skills while in the minors.
How can anyone be confident that even players like Senz, Greene or India will ever shine in the majors? Green has a nearly 7 era, Senz hitting .260s w 790 ops
You've only made a handful of posts on here. I don't know if you've followed this forum, but if you did, you'd find that when it came to our "prospects" and their development, the farm system, and pretty much a majority of the head-scratching decisions this organization has made over the last several years, there's a lot of questioning/criticism by the fans. You won't get much argument (LOL).
But you're way off base when it comes to Greene, or any 18 yr old prospect. We're talking a raw, inexperienced, immature kid here. Yeah, very talented; but from a physical standpoint, he's not done growing(filling out). He excelled at the previous level to draw recognition/notice. There's been a lot of hype around this kid who graced the cover of SI. Don't care. He's still a kid. He's now moved on to the next level (challenge). I find it pretty amazing that he's at the single A level, again at age 18, after such a brief, and not very successful, stay at Billings. It's new to him. There is going to be a period of adjustment. He's going to struggle, have his ups and downs.
It's just a pretty small window you're looking at right now. I might also add, the list is quite extensive of players who went on to pretty illustrious careers in the majors, yet their minor league numbers (careers) don't really stand out. Besides learning the game, there's also a lot of growing/maturity involved. You don't (rationally) form such a position of a kid in single A.
You've only made a handful of posts on here. I don't know if you've followed this forum, but if you did, you'd find that when it came to our "prospects" and their development, the farm system, and pretty much a majority of the head-scratching decisions this organization has made over the last several years, there's a lot of questioning/criticism by the fans. You won't get much argument (LOL).
But you're way off base when it comes to Greene, or any 18 yr old prospect. We're talking a raw, inexperienced, immature kid here. Yeah, very talented; but from a physical standpoint, he's not done growing(filling out). He excelled at the previous level to draw recognition/notice. There's been a lot of hype around this kid who graced the cover of SI. Don't care. He's still a kid. He's now moved on to the next level (challenge). I find it pretty amazing that he's at the single A level, again at age 18, after such a brief, and not very successful, stay at Billings. It's new to him. There is going to be a period of adjustment. He's going to struggle, have his ups and downs.
It's just a pretty small window you're looking at right now. I might also add, the list is quite extensive of players who went on to pretty illustrious careers in the majors, yet their minor league numbers (careers) don't really stand out. Besides learning the game, there's also a lot of growing/maturity involved. You don't (rationally) form such a position of a kid in single A.
I think you can make a strong argument that anyone who is drafted that makes it to the Show is a success. Now the vast majority don't turn out to be superstars but you have to be very, very good to at least make it. Somebody like Tony Cruz is way better than some 28 year old guy still in AA. So much has to go right and so much can go wrong for these players who are drafted. I know this is an extreme example but someone like Josh Hamilton who had all the talent in the world fell in with a bad crowd in the minors and finally made it after almost dying. Maybe that's the organization's fault for not monitoring him that closely but no one could disagree he had all the talent to make it. Someone like Hunter Greene could trip over a gopher hole and land on his shoulder and that might be it for him. And you can say, "Geez, if we only drafted this guy instead of that guy." If your developmental process is flawed, neither guy may not make it. Some guys you probably can't screw up no matter how bad your developmental system is. Guys like Strasburg, Junior, Harper and Trout were all going to make it unless there was some unforseen catastrophe. I know guys like Bruce, Frazier, Leake, Mesoroco, Hamilton et. al. weren't the superstars we hoped they would be. But they have been or were regular players in the big leagues. That's cold comfort to us who were hoping for better but as Wrong Verb said, "Baseball is hard." The guys who get drafted aren't ready for the majors like the NFL and NBA guys are. The guys the Reds are drafting aren't some schlubs who wouldn't be taken by any other team. If the Reds aren't taking these guys, some other team does. If there is a problem, it isn't with drafting. Maybe it's development but that's an argument for another thread. The vast majority of these guys who are drafted are to stock the minor league teams. Obviously you hope some of the mid-lower round guys surprise you and make their way to the majors but those guys are few and far between.
