Reds Trade And Free Agent Rumours 2023-24 Offseason

Three Logical Landing Spots For Guardians' Shane Bieber

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The Guardians and Cincinnati Reds aren't strangers when it comes to making trades. Cleveland sent Trevor Bauer to the southern city in Ohio in 2019 and last season traded Will Benson there too.

Cincinnati is an ascending team with a ton of potential on offense. Elly De La Cruz, TJ Freidl, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and the company will all be in that lineup for a long time, but now the focus turns to the starters.

Pitching is arguably the most important piece to a playoff run and the Reds didn't have a ton of it last season. They had the sixth-highest (third-highest in the NL) ERA with a 4.83.

Acquiring a pitcher such as Bieber would allow them to shift one of their young starters to the bullpen and pair Hunter Greene up with a solidified Big League ace.

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Story Here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb...er/ar-AA1ib6VP

I don’t have a link, but I have heard that San Diego might be interested in India.


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Originally Posted by Ron Madden

Three Logical Landing Spots For Guardians' Shane Bieber
Story Here:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb...er/ar-AA1ib6VP

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That would be pretty wild to acquire a guy like Bieber. To see him in our rotation to complement Hunter, Ashcraft, and Antone would be a scary rotation. The question as always would be can we give up enough guys to get Bieber and still have enough to make a run and have sustained success during the window we currently have. That’s all above my pay grade but it’s pretty cool to think about the possibilities.

Bieber is only controllable for 1 year, will make ~14M$ next season, and will take prospects to get.

Would be the complete opposite kind of deal the Reds FO has been doing as of late.

If the Reds could work out an extension with Bieber I'd like to see him here.

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Originally Posted by herbdizzle

If the Reds could work out an extension with Bieber I'd like to see him here.

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if you were Bieber would you take free agency going into 2025 or work out a reasonable extension with the Reds?

I don’t see this as a realistic trade for the Reds unless the Guardians are dumping Bieber’s 2024 season for dollar relief and second/third tier assets.

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Originally Posted by herbdizzle

If the Reds could work out an extension with Bieber I'd like to see him here.

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I have to think for one year of Bieber it's going to take a ton. He could help just about any team and I'd imagine there would be a bidding war. I'd rather the Reds bid with their ample surplus of cash for Gray or Nola than with a package of Fraley, Phillips and Hinds or whatever it might take to get one year of Bieber.

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Originally Posted by savafan

I don’t have a link, but I have heard that San Diego might be interested in India.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Yu Darvish for India?

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Originally Posted by mth123

I have to think for one year of Bieber it's going to take a ton. He could help just about any team and I'd imagine there would be a bidding war. I'd rather the Reds bid with their ample surplus of cash for Gray or Nola than with a package of Fraley, Phillips and Hinds or whatever it might take to get one year of Bieber.

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Either way, whether a trade or free agency, I have to believe Reds are looking for years of control. If they do a one-year deal for pitching, it’s either a pure salary dump costing only money and minor assets, or a reclamation project or BOR.

I can’t rule out the trade route because the good SP free agents are going to cost a lot of dough. There will be intense competition for them. But either way, the Reds know that they are not on a one-season track to a WS run.

You can’t rule out a trade because the Reds have some very plausible trade pieces. Stephenson, India, Fraley are all arbitration level veterans of some quality. They have a deep farm. OTOH, from a fan’s perspective, obviously I’d rather see them spend money on free agents. But Reds would have to compare value and cost, and could decide the trade options are better for them.

It’s a high level problem when the alternative could be, simply, the acquisition of more prospects - which so far is their plan. I wouldn’t rule that out either.

I’d virtually entirely rule out the FA route, especially for pitching. Hitting is another matter. They could actually make a serious push for some bats through FA.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Either way, whether a trade or free agency, I have to believe Reds are looking for years of control. If they do a one-year deal for pitching, it’s either a pure salary dump costing only money and minor assets, or a reclamation project or BOR.

I can’t rule out the trade route because the good SP free agents are going to cost a lot of dough. There will be intense competition for them. But either way, the Reds know that they are not on a one-season track to a WS run.

You can’t rule out a trade because the Reds have some very plausible trade pieces. Stephenson, India, Fraley are all arbitration level veterans of some quality. They have a deep farm. OTOH, from a fan’s perspective, obviously I’d rather see them spend money on free agents. But Reds would have to compare value and cost, and could decide the trade options are better for them.

It’s a high level problem when the alternative could be, simply, the acquisition of more prospects - which so far is their plan. I wouldn’t rule that out either.

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If they can find a "Latos Trade" it makes sense. I just think the scarcity of competent big-league starters is a lot worse now than it was 10 years ago and I can't see them getting a deal like that without gutting the roster.

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Originally Posted by Assembly Hall

Yu Darvish for India?

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Darvish is clearly on the downside of that contract and is signed through his age 41 season. He's soon going to either need a rejuvenating pitch, kid gloves, a bullpen role, or release papers.

But he also has a history of finding and fiddling. He seems to understand the art of pitching and could well be one of those guys who can learn something new to make him league average-ish through sheer guile and bulldoggery. I'm guessing, with that contract, India is a pretty massive overpay. I'd ask for an interesting pitcher (Sean Reynolds or Alek Jacob-- two extremely different relief options--) could be relevant targets to ask for.

That said, I think the Reds might well make a run at a true difference-maker.

What might it take for Juan Soto?

Trading for and extending Soto would be just about the best move I could imagine the Reds making. A guy can dream.

I would love to see them sign one of the 2nd tier SPs, Nola or Gray preferred. But I agree with FCB, I would assume that the front office will be looking for shrewd deals and there will only be those on the margins of free agency.

Who are the big bats in free agency? Teoscar Hernandez or Conforto (if he opts out) might fit. Gary Sanchez as 2nd catcher would be interesting. Bellinger would be a splash for CF, and would allow them to rotate Friedl/Benson/Steer in the corners (trading Fraley).

Big questions relating to some of this are: is Votto returning? Who will be traded - India, Fraley, Stephenson? Multiple guys?

If there is a big deal made it will likely be via trade, with smaller deals in free agency.

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Originally Posted by mth123

If they can find a "Latos Trade" it makes sense. I just think the scarcity of competent big-league starters is a lot worse now than it was 10 years ago and I can't see them getting a deal like that without gutting the roster.

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Arguably Reds are better suited today for a Latos type trade. In 2011, they didn’t have today’s farm depth. Some of today’s depth has undoubtedly been compiled as trade bait. As for the cost of controllable SP, it was high in 2011 too. Reds gave up a hefty package. Not sure it would be appreciably different today.

If they proceed down the FA path, my fear is they’ll be forced to settle. There aren’t many guys and they’ll get big money. Reds might wind up with the #4 or 5 or 6 candidate. In the end, it’ll turn on specific deals and price tags, hopefully they’ll look at free agents, trades, all avenues.

Again, the big question is whether they are in the market for costly veterans at all. Whether it be FA or trade.

Sonny Gray Discusses Impending Free Agency

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Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke with Sonny Gray regarding his future, and the righty made clear that his top priority as he heads into free agency isn’t necessarily securing the highest guarantee he can.

“I don’t know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent, but I’ll say it because it’s honest. Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been,” Gray said. “Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.”

If Gray doesn’t return to Minnesota, he’s sure to find plenty of interest elsewhere. The Cardinals are already known to have interest in Gray’s services, while the Dodgers, Cubs and Reds are among the many other clubs who could potentially be on the lookout for rotation help this offseason.

While the interest in Gray figures to be strong, it’s unlikely the veteran hurler will receive a top-of-the-market offer in terms of years, given he’ll be celebrating his 34th birthday next month.

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Story Here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...ee-agency.html

The phrase "valued appropriately" might be scary to an FO and to RZ hopefuls when it comes from a pitcher traded by the organization for an A ball prospect.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Arguably Reds are better suited today for a Latos type trade. In 2011, they didn’t have today’s farm depth. Some of today’s depth has undoubtedly been compiled as trade bait. As for the cost of controllable SP, it was high in 2011 too. Reds gave up a hefty package. Not sure it would be appreciably different today.

If they proceed down the FA path, my fear is they’ll be forced to settle. There aren’t many guys and they’ll get big money. Reds might wind up with the #4 or 5 or 6 candidate. In the end, it’ll turn on specific deals and price tags, hopefully they’ll look at free agents, trades, all avenues.

Again, the big question is whether they are in the market for costly veterans at all. Whether it be FA or trade.

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You ask for somebody comparable to Latos, cheap with 4 years of control, then the other side says McLain, Marte, Phillips and Hinds.

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Originally Posted by HokieRed

The phrase "valued appropriately" might be scary to an FO and to RZ hopefuls when it comes from a pitcher traded by the organization for an A ball prospect.

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I think the key is years. The Reds can afford $25 Million per year for 3 years. They can't afford to go 6+ years for somebody and they need somebody at the top of the food chain not more back-end guys (which they have in abundance). To me Gray, because he's 34, is the perfect target. Offer 3 Years, $65 Million. $5 Million signing bonus and $20 Million per year. If he wants more, increase the signing bonus. The Reds are awash with payflex now. Front load any deal.

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Originally Posted by mth123

You ask for somebody comparable to Latos, cheap with 4 years of control, then the other side says McLain, Marte, Phillips and Hinds.

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McLain has more value than anyone the Reds traded for Latos by a lot, and you can probably say the same about Marte. Marte certainly has more upside than Yonder at the time he was traded(age 24). Grandal was a AA catcher, and Boxberger a RP in AAA. None of those guys had any where near the value of a stud middle IF who put up 3.6 WAR in a half a season like McLain.

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Originally Posted by mth123

You ask for somebody comparable to Latos, cheap with 4 years of control, then the other side says McLain, Marte, Phillips and Hinds.

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This is way off-base. McLain, EDLC, Marte and Steer are likely top-50 trade value chips. Phillips could be another in a year's time. Grandal and Alonso were not on that level. But I do think a team would want Edwin Arroyo and Chase Petty in a Latos-type trade, and Hinds could be a sweetener.

If Arroyo, Petty and Hinds can't get you a very good SP on the trade market, I'd just pass, keep them all and focus on other ways to make this team better.

1. I think one thing you see in the teams that have made the final four is exceptional shortstop play. i'm not trading Arroyo.

2. I don't think mth is that far off in his list. I suspect the Reds would balk if the other side asked for McClain, Marte, Phillips, and Hinds. That doesn't mean the other side won't ask for that. GMs know the Reds' situation; they're going to hit Krall hard right between the eyes.

3. In memories of the Latos trade, I think Yasmani Grandal is being way undervalued. As I remember it, Grandal was thought to perhaps go as high as 3rd overall in the draft and he slipped to us. IMO he was by far the most important chip that got moved in either direction in that trade. If I had the choice between Grandal at the age we traded him and today's McClain (whom I like very much), it would be an easy pick of Grandal.

Latos today with as scarce as starting pitching is now would cost a lot more than the Reds paid for him 10 years ago. If you approach them with the package the Reds paid for Latos back then, they’d hang up on you.

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Originally Posted by Ron Madden

Sonny Gray Discusses Impending Free Agency
Story Here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/...ee-agency.html

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As much as I like and would love him back with the Reds, I'm thinking he's once bitten, twice shy about coming back to the Reds and not getting maximum dollars.

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Originally Posted by JCM11

McLain has more value than anyone the Reds traded for Latos by a lot, and you can probably say the same about Marte. Marte certainly has more upside than Yonder at the time he was traded(age 24). Grandal was a AA catcher, and Boxberger a RP in AAA. None of those guys had any where near the value of a stud middle IF who put up 3.6 WAR in a half a season like McLain.

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Totally disagree. Grandal was an extremely valuable catching prospect with a first rate pedigree. Alonso and Boxberger were very highly considered. Alonso was blocked with the Reds, that doesn’t diminish his value as a young player.

And, as it turned out, Grandal became a highly paid two time All Star. Boxberger has had a long career, and he and Alonzo made the All Star team too.

McLain got off to a great major league start over a half season, but that doesn’t turn him into Jose Altuve.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Totally disagree. Grandal was an extremely valuable catching prospect with a first rate pedigree. Alsonso and Boxberger were very highly considered. Alsonso was blocked with the Reds, that doesn’t diminish his value as a young player.

Grandal indeed turned out to be a highly paid two time All Star. Boxberger and Alonzo made the All Star team too.

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No one in that trade came close to McLain’s MLB production or trade value. My guess is that McClain by himself would get back a top starting pitcher with years of control.

Take out McClain, put in Arroyo, and it’s a similar deal, imo.

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Originally Posted by 757690

No one in that trade came close to McLain’s MLB production or trade value. My guess is that McClain by himself would get back a top starting pitcher with years of control.

Take out McClain, put in Arroyo, and it’s a similar deal, imo.

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McLain is an excellent young player but still overrated on here. In particular, as a relatively small MLB player, who’s already suffered a season-ending injury, I would expect teams to have durability concerns. His minor league rankings were good, not great. Love having him as a Red, but he still has a lot to prove to have top value.

And you’re wrong about Grandal’s trade value. He was a highly rated young catcher. Catcher is a tough position to fill and a player like Grandal, at that position, was the backbone of that trade and had lots of value.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

McLain is an excellent young player but still overrated on here. In particular, as a relatively small MLB player, who’s already suffered a season-ending injury, I would expect teams to have durability concerns. His minor league rankings were good, not great. Love having him as a Red, but he still has a lot to prove to have top value.

And you’re wrong about Grandal’s trade value. He was a highly rated young catcher. Catcher is a tough position to fill and a player like Grandal, at that position, was the backbone of that trade and had lots of value.

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McLain produced over 3 wins in half a rookie season. Hard to overrate that. Watching him makes it clear he doesn’t have much left to prove.

I never said anything about Grandal. I assumed he would be worth around what Marte is worth, and that’s pretty high.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Totally disagree. Grandal was an extremely valuable catching prospect with a first rate pedigree. Alsonso and Boxberger were very highly considered. Alsonso was blocked with the Reds, that doesn’t diminish his value as a young player.

And, as it turned out, Grandal became a highly paid two time All Star. Boxberger has had a long career, and he and Alonzo made the All Star team too.

McLain got off to a great major league start over a half season, but that doesn’t turn him into Jose Altuve.

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Grandal was also blocked by Mesoraco who was a consensus top 25 prospect going into the 2012 season after putting up an .855 OPS in AAA. The Reds likely wouldn't have made that trade if they didn't have Mesoraco and Votto ahead of Grandal and Alonso. Yes those guys had a great deal of value, but McLain played at a borderline MVP level for half a big league season after putting up the highest OPS in the minors leagues for two months.

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Originally Posted by 757690

McLain produced over 3 wins in half a rookie season. Hard to overrate that. Watching him makes it clear he doesn’t have much left to prove.

I never said anything about Grandal. I assumed he would be worth around what Marte is worth, and that’s pretty high.

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Sure you did. You said nobody in that trade came close to McLain’s trade value. That would include Grandal, presumably. Don’t agree with that conclusion for the reasons I’ve stated.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

Sure you did. You said nobody in that trade came close to McLain’s trade value. That would include Grandal, presumably. Don’t agree with that conclusion for the reasons I’ve stated.

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A prospect in AA rarely has close to the value of a player who has already produced over 3 WAR in the majors, especially one ranked in the bottom 50-100.

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/...offseason-pat3

Red Sox could be shopping Jarred Duran. Centerfielder, breakout year last year, lots of years of control. The article suggests the Red Sox would want a pitcher.

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Originally Posted by 757690

A prospect in AA rarely has close to the value of a player who has already produced over 3 WAR in the majors, especially one ranked in the bottom 50-100.

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I don’t think GMs would view it that way in this case. I won’t repeat all my points, but suffice it to say, McClain played 89 games. As good as they were, it’s a limited sample and then he’s out for the season. I’m not sure GMs would thrust him ahead of a top catching prospect on that basis.

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Originally Posted by mth123

Latos today with as scarce as starting pitching is now would cost a lot more than the Reds paid for him 10 years ago. If you approach them with the package the Reds paid for Latos back then, they’d hang up on you.

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I assume you could get Latos with a minor league minimum deal today.

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Originally Posted by mth123

You ask for somebody comparable to Latos, cheap with 4 years of control, then the other side says McLain, Marte, Phillips and Hinds.

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The Reds should be willing to pay the price though. I'm not saying the specific 4 guys you mentioned, but they have the farm system to pay for it and be ok.
That's probably what it's going to take to get to the next level. I agree with you, it's unlikely the Reds are able to get someone like Gray or Nola in FA.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

I don’t think GMs would view it that way in this case. I won’t repeat all my points, but suffice it to say, McClain played 89 games. As good as they were, it’s a limited sample and then he’s out for the season. I’m not sure GMs would thrust him ahead of a top catching prospect on that basis.

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Why would any team want a top 100 prospect who had never played in the majors over a top 100 prospect, similarly ranked, who had an all-star level year in the majors already?

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Originally Posted by REDREAD

The Reds should be willing to pay the price though. I'm not saying the specific 4 guys you mentioned, but they have the farm system to pay for it and be ok.
That's probably what it's going to take to get to the next level. I agree with you, it's unlikely the Reds are able to get someone like Gray or Nola in FA.

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I wouldn't pay that price when they have plenty of money to get somebody else.

In 2011, Latos was making the minimum and an established frontline starter with 4 years of control remaining. These days, a guy like Luke Weaver and a almost 7 ERA gets 25 big league starts because there are 150 major league starting pitching jobs and only about 70 major league caliber starters to fill them. They aren't getting a guy comparable to the Latos the Reds traded for with minor leaguers. I'd be appalled if the Reds would trade Hunter Greene for what the padres got for Latos and Greene isn't close to as good as Latos was back then.

We need to remember that the 4 years of control for Latos really wasn’t worth the extra cost. He provided 2 years of solid production, then got hurt. The Reds are lucky that they were able to trade him for Disco, but that was more about the Reds good scouting than Latos’ trade value at that point.

I am not sure I would want a pitcher with more than 2 or 3 years of control. I think odds are high that he will get hurt over 4 or more years. No need to pay extra for those extra years.

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Originally Posted by mth123

I wouldn't pay that price when they have plenty of money to get somebody else.

In 2011, Latos was making the minimum and an established frontline starter with 4 years of control remaining. These days, a guy like Luke Weaver and a almost 7 ERA gets 25 big league starts because there are 150 major league starting pitching jobs and only about 70 major league caliber starters to fill them. They aren't getting a guy comparable to the Latos the Reds traded for with minor leaguers. I'd be appalled if the Reds would trade Hunter Greene for what the padres got for Latos and Greene isn't close to as good as Latos was back then.

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I agree, it would be ideal to sign a FA pitcher.
I think the Reds are going to struggle to get Gray, Nola or one of the other top FA pitchers.
There's so much competition, Cincy is not a desirable place for FA.
We have to be realistic. I want Krall to try to do that, I just don't think he's going to be willing to pay what it's going to take.
It reminds of of a few years ago when the Front office lied and told us we were "in" on all the big FA SS , when the reality was they were waiting until spring training, hoping to sign some veteran utility guy on the cheap, then we ended up with Suarez at SS.
Now, it's not exactly the same, as Krall has not publicly said anything, but I am just setting my expectations low and hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

But if they can't get a good pitcher in FA, they definitely need to trade the prospects to get one.
They really should not waste 2024, even if that hurts 2029 or whatever. Now is the time to go for it.

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Originally Posted by 757690

We need to remember that the 4 years of control for Latos really wasn’t worth the extra cost. He provided 2 years of solid production, then got hurt. The Reds are lucky that they were able to trade him for Disco, but that was more about the Reds good scouting than Latos’ trade value at that point.

I am not sure I would want a pitcher with more than 2 or 3 years of control. I think odds are high that he will get hurt over 4 or more years. No need to pay extra for those extra years.

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The Reds have a $30 Million payroll. Why trade any talent when they can spend those windfall profits to add a starter?

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Originally Posted by REDREAD

I agree, it would be ideal to sign a FA pitcher.
I think the Reds are going to struggle to get Gray, Nola or one of the other top FA pitchers.
There's so much competition, Cincy is not a desirable place for FA.
We have to be realistic. I want Krall to try to do that, I just don't think he's going to be willing to pay what it's going to take.
It reminds of of a few years ago when the Front office lied and told us we were "in" on all the big FA SS , when the reality was they were waiting until spring training, hoping to sign some veteran utility guy on the cheap, then we ended up with Suarez at SS.
Now, it's not exactly the same, as Krall has not publicly said anything, but I am just setting my expectations low and hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

But if they can't get a good pitcher in FA, they definitely need to trade the prospects to get one.
They really should not waste 2024, even if that hurts 2029 or whatever. Now is the time to go for it.

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I just don't think you're going to get a good pitcher of the caliber the Reds need for prospects. If those prospects are established big leaguers like McLain and Marte, then maybe. But not for guys who aren't being counted on for the big-league team. Arroyo, Phillips and Collier might get you a decent number 4 or weak number 3 like Ashcraft or Abbott, not an established front-line starter who isn't a rental.