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Predicting Every MLB Team's 2026 Opening Day Lineup
Continue Reading Full Article Here:Quote:
Cincinnati Reds
1. CF TJ Friedl
2. RF Noelvi Marte
3. SS Elly De La Cruz
4. 1B Spencer Steer
5. DH Sal Stewart (R)
6. C Tyler Stephenson
7. LF JJ Bleday
8. 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
9. 2B Matt McLain
Quick Thoughts: A reunion with Austin Hays or Miguel Andujar is still a possibility for the Reds, which would add to a left field situation currently headlined by offseason pickups JJ Bleday and Dane Myers. The Gavin Lux trade opens the door for Sal Stewart to see everyday playing time after he posted a 121 OPS+ with five home runs in 58 plate appearances as a September call-up.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...eup-version-30
Not what I’d call a formidable lineup, but looking forward to some baseball.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Madden
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Same HereQuote:
Originally Posted by LiferJim
White Sox sign Austin Hays. Another one down.
Didn't want Hays back. Misses too much time and isn't very good against RHP. I'd prefer Andujar who can hit against both RH and LH. The Reds have too many guys who are easily handled by a pitching change.
The problem is that he hits RHP as well as the current likely LF. Bladay, and that's Bleday's strong side.Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
White Sox have quietly made some solid moves in the right direction that will likely move them from laughingstock to just a normal below average team. But they have some interesting young pieces.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guacarock
Really would like to see Elly lead off. Him starting an inning on base with o outs is a great chance to score. And maximize his plate appearances too.
Yeah. They are all very splitty except the ones that are meh against everybody. EDLC, Friedl, Marte, Benson can't hit LHPQuote:
Originally Posted by CaiGuy
Myers can't hit RHP. Hayes, Trevino, McLain awful against both.
Steer isn't splitty, just a little below average against both sides. Stephenson is good against LHP, meh against RHP.
Bleday had reverse splits last year hitting well against LHP and poorly against RHP.
Stewart is still an unknown at the big-league level. The 13th guy is likely to be an end of the bench guy who adds little to the offense.
It all adds up to a team that is easy to match up against and makes the whole less than the sum of its parts because that's exactly what teams will do. That's why I like Andujar. Really good vs LHP and good against RHP.
Slightly better than the Pirates in the race for 3rd best in the CentralQuote:
Originally Posted by LiferJim
If the Pirates snag Suarez, the Reds would then be battling the Cardinals for last place, unless a whole bunch of Reds players have years like they’ve never had. Hopes and prayers.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldXOhio
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The Reds don’t need to be better or play well in the actual games for them to be a success in our hearts.
Luis Arraez reportedly going to San Fran.
1-year, 12 million, and he's expected to play 2B for the Giants.
He was predicted to get a 2 year, $24M deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by NebraskaRed
This is a good sign for any team wanting to sign Geno
I don't think the Arraez deal has any impact on Suarez's market. Completely different players. There's not going to be significant demand for a singles hitter that doesn't walk and has been less productive over the last two years.
Suarez had 13 more HR last season than Arraez has in his entire career.
According to Nightengale, Arraez rejected several multi-year offers from other teams in order to play second base. The Giants now have their infield set with their $12M commitment to Arraez.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Thanks for the info. I wonder what the money was on the multi -year deals.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
Maybe this is a similar reason why it’s taking Geno so long to sign? He wants to stay at 3B, and all the teams making him offers want him at 1B/DH.
MLBTR in November predicted Suarez at 3 years and $63 million. My guess is the offers are south of that kind of LTC and that’s why Geno hasn’t signed.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
Per Lance McCalister, The Sporting News handed out grades for this offseason and our Cincinnati Reds received an F. So those complaining about this offseason are completely justified.
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F for “Fielding-only Third Baseman is All You Need”
The Reds Sox just unloaded a bunch of Salary to the White Sox. Making room for Suarez???
Donovan to the Mariners
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/682...d=url-share-ta
Quote:
The St. Louis Cardinals are close to finalizing a trade to send All-Star infielder Brendan Donovan to the Seattle Mariners, multiple sources tell The Athletic. According to a league source, the move may be part of a three-team deal involving the Tampa Bay Rays. The trade is believed to be pending medicals.
I think I have shared the link as one of my ten free monthly, around the paywall shares.
I have truly enjoyed the Cardinals' teardown.
How is their farm system rankings? The Cardinals haven't been this irrelevant in a LONG time but it's not in their nature to stay down for long. However, the economics of baseball seems to have changed quite a bit over the last 10 years and maybe their time as the Dodgers of the Midwest is over....Quote:
Originally Posted by WildcatFan
Angels Sign Jeimer Candelario To Minor League Deal
The Angels have signed infielder Jeimer Candelario to a minor league deal, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Candelario’s deal comes with an invite to big league Spring Training.
Their farm is solid. They have one of the best hitting prospects in minors - JJ WetherholtQuote:
Originally Posted by mgbrown66
Every time I see JJ Wetherholt, Connor Griffin, or Nick Kurtz, I think, "There's one that got away." Then I think of Chase Burns, and I don't feel so bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Glad they didn't end up with Bazzana, Condon, Smith, or Caglione, though. Woof. (And to be clear, there's a not insignificant chance that most of those guys work out fine. But they are well behind the top three in terms of development and helping the parent club.) In retrospect, Burns was among the better picks in that draft.
When I look at the Cardinals projected line-up, they have 5 guys who project for 2 or more WAR. Not sure the reds can top that. EDLC, Friedl, Suarez (though not as certain if he's a DH only), maybe Marte and Stewart. The rest are doubtful IMO.
Of course the Reds pitching staff is far superior.
It was last week before the Suarez signing and the Donovan trade but at that point the ZiPS projections had the Cardinals being just 1 game worse then the Reds this season. I am not sure I would start cheering their demise just yet.
If Ty Steve can stay relatively healthy he should be a 2 WAR guy. God bless us if Trevino again plays more games that Ty SteveQuote:
Originally Posted by mth123
Of course the Reds are paying him $13MM this year, less the MLB minimum ($780,000 this season).Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Madden
The Cardinals are like the Steelers in football. Never take them lightly...but I will say that this is the first time I've ever seen them purge payroll like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
I have nothing to back this up really, but Wetherholt feels a bit Senzellian to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
He's projected for a lot more PT than last year (438 PAs) with 1.1 WAR. They show a .711 OPS and a 94 wRC+. I think those projections are low but I'm not sure he makes it all the way to 2 WAR even if he beats them handily.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Ray
For the Record, Fangraphs only projects Friedl (2.0), McLain (2.4) and EDLC (4.7) for more than 2 WAR in the Reds line-up.
Suarez (1.6), Hayes (1.5) and Stewart (1.5) are the next closest. Steer, Marte, Bleday, Benson and Myers are projected below 1 WAR.
They have 5 Cardinals line-up guys over 2 WAR (Wynn, Herrera, Wetherholdt, Nootbar and Burleson) but the entire rotation is projected for under 2, while all 5 of the Reds starters project to more than 2 WAR. (Greene 3.8, Abbott 2.7, Burns 2.6, Lodolo 2.4 and Singer 2.3)
Wow. That TySteve projection makes no sense to me. He only played in 88 games last yr and his WAR was 1.3br. He's in a contract year. Seems to me that if he plays in 120 games he'll hit 2.0 WARQuote:
Originally Posted by mth123
The offense will beat a lot of projections with Suarez in the lineup, Sal as an everyday guy and Elly back to full health. Stephenson in his walk year is interesting too. Last year it was too easy to pitch around the hot bat. 2026 lineups will be much more problematic for pitchers to get through.
This is a case where common sense beats analytics, at least in my view.
ZIPS had the Reds at around 75 wins last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaggy
These projections are fun, but rather meaningless. They are notoriously inaccurate. If you were to project every team to win 81 games, that would be as accurate as ZIPS’s projections have been.
On March 27th last year Zips had the Reds and Cardinals both at 79 wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I am not saying that they are the end all and will be perfect but they get thrown around on this board all the time both team projections and also player projections. So I think it is fair to put it out there. I didn't say that they were accurate or that they would both end up tied. I was just showing that in the conversation about the Cardinals being bad that maybe they aren't going to be as bad as some people want to think.