Dunn traded for what ( realistically )

I've seen >100 possible trades for dunn.

Some say Dunn for E Santana or J Bonderman could happen.
Others say no way.

Some want MORE ( ie E Santana & one of the Angels top prospects ).

Some want to give Dunn away for junk.

I am not a big fan of Dunn.
I want the Reds defense improved for 2007 and that means Dunn or Jr in left and the other gone.
Trading Jr is problematic ( 10/5 rights and fan outrage ) so I think Dunn is more likely to be traded.
I realize Dunn's numbers last year were a slight dropoff from 2005 but I do believe there should be many teams desirable of a guy who hits 40 HRs with a .370 OBP.

So...realistically who would be calling Krisky & what can Krivsky get for Dunn?

What is the LEAST you would be willing to trade Dunn for?

My thoughts:

1. Angels ( of course ).

* Dunn & Cormier for Shields & O Cabrera.
The Angels want offense.
They also need a LH reliever.
They have 2 SS prospects.
From the Reds side they get a good defensive SS who can hit & a closer.

*Dunn straight up for E Santana.

2. Tigers ( pitching rich and need a LH hitter ).

*Dunn straight up for Bonderman.

*Dunn straight up for Rodney or Zumaya ( sp ) & one of the Tigers top AAA pitching prospects.

Zumaya ( sp ) & one of the Tigers top AAA pitching prospects is probably the minimum I want for Dunn.

- Dunn straight up for Rodney or Zumaya ( sp ) & Maroth or Miner.
I don't think this is enough.

3. Yankees. I don't think they have much to trade to the Reds.

4. Astros. Looking for another bat. Not sure what they could offer.

5. Cubs. Not sure what they could offer.

6. Dodgers?

7. Padres need offense.

Keep Dunn.

I would need 3 top prospects that are ready. 1 who plays SS, one who is a starter and the other a high ceiling guy who doesn't play 3B. I think the Angels are the only team that has it and they have money to buy what they want (Soriano) without trading it all in one deal.

A thought I had today was Dunn to the Rangers for Michael Young. Dunn is a Texas boy and can play DH for a Rangers team who will probably want a power DH with Carlos Lee likely not staying, and we get a great hitting SS. Texas is apparently shopping Young, Texiera, and most of it's team around and owner Tom Hicks isn't very high on Young. I admit this doesn't solve any pitching problems but maybe you can throw in Coffey and a some other guys to get some pitchers from Texas.

Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.

Isn't Michael Young just as bad on defense as Felipe Lopez?

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Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Isn't Michael Young just as bad on defense as Felipe Lopez?

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Yes!

Dunn for Bonderman sounds pretty good. Assuming that the reds commit to keep bonderman long term and that they go and sign some offense this offseason to replace dunn.

Don't think Detroit is going to do that deal.

Why trade a good young SP for a power hitting OFer? Power hitting OFers aren't that hard to come by

Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

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Originally Posted by wheels

Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

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I'm not sure the Reds should trade Dunn. I don't know what they can get for him. But it's not as simple as "don't sell low."

The issue with Dunn is his contract. He has a $13.5 million option for 2008. If you are the Reds, do you want this player at that point? If no, can you risk another bad season (or first half 2007) when his trade value may drop more?

And this is complicated further if, as I understand, his option year disappears if traded. If so, he is a one-year rental by the acquiring team.

I don't know the answer. But if the Reds get good offers for Dunn, they may feel that -- financially -- it makes sense to make the trade sooner instead of later. It's not that simple a question.

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Originally Posted by Kc61

I'm not sure the Reds should trade Dunn. I don't know what they can get for him. But it's not as simple as "don't sell low."

The issue with Dunn is his contract. He has a $13.5 million option for 2008. If you are the Reds, do you want this player at that point? If no, can you risk another bad season (or first half 2007) when his trade value may drop more?

And this is complicated further if, as I understand, his option year disappears if traded. If so, he is a one-year rental by the acquiring team.

I don't know the answer. But if the Reds get good offers for Dunn, they may feel that -- financially -- it makes sense to make the trade sooner instead of later. It's not that simple a question.

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I'm with Wheels here. It would cost more than $13.5 Million on the market to replace his production. Even off his bad year where he "only" hit 40 HR with .370 OBP. I bet Soriano or even Lee get that much and they are older. The Reds need to turn that option into a 3 year deal at $12 to $13 million per IMO. Blow me away and I'd trade him.

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Originally Posted by wheels

Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

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:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

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Originally Posted by wheels

Gosh dernit....

Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

Dunn for ARod, Dunn for this, Dunn for that.

Enough already.

Gee willickers.

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Golly sakes...

How do you know his value is at its lowest?

It could go completely in the toilet next season.

Heavens to Betsy.

Assuming you don't trade Dunn how exactly are you going to improve the team?

Even if we resign Aurillia, Weathers & Schowenweis we still need:
#3 SP, closer, SS or 2b, better defense & a better bench/depth.

Going into 2007 with the same team that was so painfully average in 2006 can't happen. We all hope Bailey & maybe Votto will be ready this year but rookies shouldn't be counted on too much ( they have their ups & downs ).

So if we keep Dunn how do we improve the team?

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Originally Posted by Natty Redlocks

Golly sakes...

How do you know his value is at its lowest?

It could go completely in the toilet next season.

Heavens to Betsy.

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Well it's lower than at any other point during his career. let's just leave it at that.

I mean, Holy Moses.

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Originally Posted by Will M

So if we keep Dunn how do we improve the team?

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Spend money on free agents? I don't know how much Bob is willing to spend though.

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Doesn't anyone understand that you don't trade someone when his value is at it's lowest?

Doesn't anyone pay attention this game anymore?

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In key offensive indicators, Dunn has been going in the wrong direction at an age when you generally see players improving. If this trend continues, come this time next year he'll be going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA, one year deeper into a declining trend. In other words, his trade value will be lower, perhaps significantly so. There is risk in keeping Dunn, and risk in trading him. At the least, the Reds need to be exploring the market for him.

Trading Adam Dunn would be beyond stupid.

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Originally Posted by Jpup

Trading Adam Dunn would be beyond stupid.

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No more stupid than your comment.

This team has alot of problems. Namely, overpaying for very little production and poor defense. Junior and Dunn are outfield liabilities and when they're not producing, what's the point of paying them $20-$30 million? There are many other options that are either cheaper or comparable that will produce better. Heck, I'd even pay a little more just to actually get some PRODUCTION.

Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

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Originally Posted by ChatterRed

No more stupid than your comment.

This team has alot of problems. Namely, overpaying for very little production and poor defense. Junior and Dunn are outfield liabilities and when they're not producing, what's the point of paying them $20-$30 million? There are many other options that are either cheaper or comparable that will produce better. Heck, I'd even pay a little more just to actually get some PRODUCTION.

Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

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Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

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Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

In key offensive indicators, Dunn has been going in the wrong direction at an age when you generally see players improving. If this trend continues, come this time next year he'll be going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA, one year deeper into a declining trend. In other words, his trade value will be lower, perhaps significantly so. There is risk in keeping Dunn, and risk in trading him. At the least, the Reds need to be exploring the market for him.

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I think Krivsky will do with Dunn what Cashman will do with AROD. He will not aggressively try to deal him. Instead he will sit back and wait until he is blown away by an offer. There seem to be a lot of power bats available this winter. Krivsky's best move may be to wait until ST or sometime into the season when a team gets desperate.

You mention Dunn is not progressing. I think that is a fluke. Dunn seems to work hard at his hitting. And no one is more critical of himself. He never makes excuses. Dunn above anybody realizes 2006 was his worst year, and I believe he will work hard to fix that. I am sure Krivsky realizes all of this and thus will not actively seek a Dunn trade.

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Originally Posted by ChatterRed

Keeping Dunn and Junior mean that there is no money to spend on Free Agency. It means we have no trading chips to improve the club. It means this team will be exactly the same next season with most likely the same result or worse.

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I think any way you slice it, right now it would be something of an upset if the Reds were to get enough pieces to help them (read: sizeable net gain in run differential) next season for Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey.

Teams just aren't going to give up much when the money difference and/or production difference between the player for whom they are trading and a potential free agent signee is negligible. Why give up high-ceiling prospects, especially multiple high-ceiling prospects, for a guy with blemishes AND a 10M/year price tag?

I just don't see the potential return being a #1 starter, high-ceiling prospects, or enough above AAAA level major league starters to fill all of the Reds' gaping holes...which brings us full circle...why get rid of Dunn OR Griffey if you are only getting .70 (if that) on the dollar?

I think that you have, at least, 25 other teams that would give Adam Dunn 10 million per, to play for them.

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Originally Posted by Jpup

Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

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I'd also be curious to hear the idea for getting rid of Junior, what with his declining abilities, exhorbitant contract, 10/5 rights and whatnot.

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Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

going into the last year of his contract (at 13+million) -- one year older, one year from FA,

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Scary thought. If his career numbers stay consistent, will he be worth even more money at then end of that contract? Will he want to be with a team more likely to contend than the Reds? Will the Reds be able to get anything for him at such a salary and his ability to walk?

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Originally Posted by isaiahbarney

I think Krivsky will do with Dunn what Cashman will do with AROD. He will not aggressively try to deal him. Instead he will sit back and wait until he is blown away by an offer. There seem to be a lot of power bats available this winter. Krivsky's best move may be to wait until ST or sometime into the season when a team gets desperate.

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This I definitely agree with. He won't get a good deal until teams who think they're getting Soriano or Lee miss out on them. I'd like to see them sign a decent replacement bat early on, just in case a trade happens later.

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Originally Posted by dougdirt

Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar.

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Angels are looking for help in center, 3rd base and lst base. You might need to make it a three-way to work.

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Originally Posted by Jpup

Who are you going to get for 10 million to replace Dunn's production?

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If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.

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Originally Posted by Krusty

If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.

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And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.

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Originally Posted by westofyou

And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.

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Agreed. ;)

When I'm paying Adam Dunn's salary, I'll worry about how much money he's making. Until then, I don't care. ;)

I agree with what a few others said - wait until Soriano & Lee sign then trade Dunn to a team who really needs more offense. I don't think we need to wait until next season , just wait until ~December.

I think we trade Dunn for young pitching ( if we can ) then try to replace his offense partially with free agent/trade. The defense will improve greatly if Griffey moves to left and Dunn is gone.

I think the Reds need to look at 2008/2009 and plan to be contenders year after year ( similar to the Cards or Twins ).
We have a lot of dead weight ( LaRue, Milton, Griffey ) which really limits our options.

I also think Dunn's value will be less a year from now. There is ZERO sign that he is getting better.

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Originally Posted by westofyou

And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons.

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dont be surprised if edwin takes the team rbi crown from dunn in 07.
2006
EE 406 AB'S 72 RBI
dunn 561 AB'S 92 RBI

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Originally Posted by Krusty

If you look at Dunn's numbers closer you'll see he gets alot of home runs and RBIs when the game isn't on the line. His average .221 with runners in scoring position shows me he isn't able to carry this team.

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that's a blatant falsehood that has been refuted here more times than I can count.

RISP numbers don't have anything to do with whether the runs produced occur when the game is on the line.

If you really believe that Dunn's HR's come at points when game isn't on the line go through his HR's over the last 4 years and list how many are meaningless for us. I've done it before so I know you're wrong. maybe you should do it too to rather than just say something is true when you really don't know whether it is or not.

if you were really looking closely at his numbers you should be able to provide some research to back up your point.

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Originally Posted by jmac

dont be surprised if edwin takes the team rbi crown from dunn in 07.
2006
EE 406 AB'S 72 RBI
dunn 561 AB'S 92 RBI

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Don't be surprised that Dunn scores on a bunch of those too.

Trade Dunn for magic beans and watch Edwin win the RBI crown of the Reds with a robust 84, BTW I don't really care about RBI's but when a guy leads the team in Runs and RBI's for 3 seasons and then has to hear he can't carry the team I start to wonder why the rest of the team doesn't get more crap.

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Originally Posted by westofyou

Don't be surprised that Dunn scores on a bunch of those too.

Trade Dunn for magic beans and watch Edwin win the RBI crown of the Reds with a robust 84, BTW I don't really care about RBI's but when a guy leads the team in Runs and RBI's for 3 seasons and then has to hear he can't carry the team I start to wonder why the rest of the team doesn't get more crap.

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my comment was more toward the potential of encarnacion than a knock of dunn.i believe dunn is what he is.
you can expect 40 hrs 100 rbi's.unless he proves otherwise...i dont expect a 290 avg or 140 rbi's.
as far as dunn scoring the runs....based on narron's lineups late in season or till the major team slump hit...my guess would be EE 4th dunn 5th depending on trades etc

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Originally Posted by westofyou

And if you look even closer you'll see that he's led the team in runs and RBI's for 3 straight seasons, but hey... let's just use his RISP from this year to make decisions.

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And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?

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Originally Posted by Krusty

And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?

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No one is on the same level as Pujols.

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Originally Posted by Krusty

And I guess you'll say Dunn is on the same level as Albert Pujols?

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The world ain't black and white, so don't try to fit me into it that way.

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Originally Posted by westofyou

The world ain't black and white, so don't try to fit me into it that way.

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You're the one with the man love for Adam Dunn.