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Of course the numbers are going to go up because there is more testing. The more I read, the more optimistic I become. I believe by early May things will start to lax with social distancing still implemented. I believe too many people are caught in the panic and are not looking at things rationally. Things are bad but I don't think this will be a months long thing as some are suggesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinsm
Yes. If you're panicky now, wait. The more you test, the more you find. Throw it into a chart. Clamp down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates
https://www.rt.com/news/483634-italy...y-coronavirus/
I'm not trying to be an ass in pointing this out but everywhere (granted it's just the main articles that come up on Google) I read the number was in the 900's today, not 1000.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinsm
If the final numbers come out differently that's one thing, but I haven't seen it reported yet.
I'm seeing 919 with an adjustment made adding 50.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/europ...ntl/index.html
But all major cities get hit with a lot of stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kinsm
The questions isn't whether they will get hit, but what the impact of it will be.
And the numbers originally forecasting 2 million American deaths are looking like rubbish. You can go on believing them if you like, but the mortality rate of this stuff just isn't near what "the experts" originally fed us. Forecasting 5% mortality rate with 60% to 70% infection. Even in NY now the infection rate is looking like 1 per thousand. And the mortality rate somewhere about 1.4% which is bound to fall as they get a real handle on the total number of infections.
So the state of Ohio health director saying 1% of the total population infected as of a couple weeks ago might be looking .... because the infection rate of 1 per thousand sounds just a little different. Especially giving the difference in population density.
Birx today said that the numbers were way way off, that even a 20% infection rate was likely way too high.Quote:
Originally Posted by jup
This is like Tommy John surgery. Yes, the pitcher could possibly come back more quickly than originally forecast, but if things don't work out, you've done further unnecessary damage. Be cautious.
Or something like that. I know nothing.
Abbott Labs just had a 5 to 13 minute test approved by the FDA. Will be distributed next week. This could be a big development towards the "bubble" scenario of re-starting sports. Apparently the NBA is toying with the idea of creating a scenario where players and personnel are kept separate from the GP and play the games in this semi-quarantine environment. Widespread quick tests make this a lot more plausible.
Could be a strategy that the MLB employs as well.
Do we really think that the players are going to agree on literally being quarantined from society and family to play a game? I don't buy that for a second.Quote:
Originally Posted by NachoMan
Assuming that a positive test, at the very least, quarantines a player off the team for two weeks, I'm not sure how sports can pick back up without some sort player isolation implemented. How can a league proceed when one outbreak on a team essentially pulls them out of competition (and more than likely shuts down the league)?Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
We're all hoping there is a miracle cure coming soon, or that serological testing shows this is going to burn out before the summer. My guess is it's not going to quite so rosy -- not anything to freak out about, but frankly, I think we're going to have to be fine with things not being fine for a while. If that's the case -- and I don't think anybody can say it's not a possibility -- they'll either cancel the season or have to proceed under quarantine.
Which -- aren't we already all on quarantine as it is? I don't see why that scenario seems so crazy.
In Japan and Korea they've begun their version of spring training. This week a team in Japan has had 3 players test positive. The league has said that it's not going to postpone anything and their plan is to still continue forward with the start of the season of April 24th. That's crazy to me, but it's what they've said.Quote:
Originally Posted by NachoMan
No way the infected players are staying with team while contagious though, right? The players will have to be in a state of diligent social distancing just to be able to field a team. An official "bubble" might not be mandated, but a bubble will effectively exist nonetheless as the teams/players adjust their behavioral strategies to keep guys active.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
Gov. Cuomo says NYC’s crisis is expected to peak in 2-3 weeks. Suppose another 3 weeks to wind down from the peak. That’s a month and a half, or about mid-May. Sounds doable to start the season by the All-Star break, or before. But as NYC is winding down, New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago might be nearing their peaks. And even when it winds down, there might be embers that flare back up, like a forest fire. It’ll be really interesting to see how a team deals with a player catching the virus after the season starts. Shut down and isolate the whole team?
At least there’s something of a light at the end of the tunnel, mixaphorically speaking.
And all major cities will continue to get hit with a lot of stuff, the question is whether or not this new thing makes it unbearable on the healthcare system.Quote:
Originally Posted by jup
Rubbish? First of all, the study you are referencing is from the CDC, it estimated that as many as 2 million Americans could die (by Christmas 2020) if we had done absolutely nothing. That means no closing of restaurants, no sports teams closing, no beaches closed, no social distancing orders, no ordering of more medical equipment, no shutdown of the airline system, etc..
We didn't do nothing, now did we?
If you are able to get in a time machine, go back a month, and prevent all of our politicians from doing anything and see what happens then you can come tell us if that model from the CDC was rubbish. I for one, believe that if 160 million Americans had continued to go to work everyday, had 80 million kids kept going to school, had tens of millions packed amusement parks, beaches, and stadiums, had we not emergency ordered millions of kits, gloves, masks, swabs, ect... that number seems more than reasonable. Because in that scenario you can bet your rear end our healthcare system would have become exhausted due to the sheer number of those infected.
I have no idea where you're getting that NY infection rate. Thus far 15% of all those tested have come up positive, there are probably tens of thousands of New Yorkers infected right now we don't know about.
We still aren't clamping down though, are we? Even right here in SW Ohio (which has been a leader in shutting down things) you can go hit up your local golf course with your friends.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rojo
If that doesn't float your boat, you can hit up a packed Kroger at noon.
I really hope your are correct, I disagree with you though. I see zero reason for the comments about a multi billion $ business opening back up in May or June, I find them to not just be optimistic but foolish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates
I've yet to see anyone on this board panic, I see some posters simply stating factual figures.
And FYI: If you want to come back in a couple of months and say I told you so if the virus does dissipate. I'll be ecstatic, because that means it didn't get worse and the hodgepodge of "social distancing" orders that have been put in place across the country worked. It means, my family and friends will be okay.
For the record, I think the social distancing orders have been a joke in this country from the beginning, and still are in most places..