We've seen some of the mock drafts, pored over scouting reports, and made our own personal preferences known.
What is your personal 2020 draft philosophy?
Mine:
Offensive Players
- Upside, upside, upside. If a guy has shown it in his toolbox, depend on coaches to bring it out.
- Patience and pitch recognition are the most important skills a batter can have. They aren't just the sixth tool-- they are the most important tool in a hitter's toolbox. They improve floor, likely production, and ceiling.
- Upside is vital, but production shouldn't be dismissed. Tools AND production early. In short, scouts AND analytics, especially early. Since this draft is tiny, we should see this philosophy throughout all five rounds.
- Analytics on swing and hard contact are often key to upside. Have to have good swing numbers to be chosen early.
- The ability to generate power is an influence, but not a deal-breaker. Bat speed, otoh, is more important.
- How coachable to kid is and his baseball IQ often determines success, but picking for those is a crapshoot. Best to ignore it unless it's a major red flag or an obvious trait.
- Defense has become less important as positioning analytics have gotten better. When push comes to shove, take the 'tweener with the better bat. SS is the only position on the field where defense becomes a huge part of the discussion.
- Speaking of, catchers should be like 3B. Defense is great, but will sacrifice for offense. (Electronic strikes are coming, and framing isn't going to be important at all. Calling a game is no longer the responsibility of the catcher.) In short, more Mike Piazza, less Bob Boone.
- Youth and precociousness of talent isn't necessarily a positive unless said youth is generating big-time power without selling out for it. Easy power with a plus hit tool at a young age screams superstar. Draft accordingly.
- The speed score needs to consider not just straight-line speed, but baseball IQ and aggressiveness within that framework. Scott Rolen was a great baserunner even after Mother Nature took his knees. Part of that is instinctual. Part of it is intelligence. Pure speed helps, but smart speed is better.
- In order, the tools are:
- Hitting skills (pitch recognition, patience)
- Hit tool (Ability to square up the ball consistently)
- Power (Ability to drive the ball with a productive swing plane)
- Speed (Ability and aggressiveness)
- Arm (Only at C, 3B, SS, CF, and RF does it matter much)
- Glove (Can be taught with repetition and willingness to work)
Pitchers
- Upside, upside, upside. Production is less important than tools.
- Health is a fifth tool. It can be improved (slightly). Be wary in drafting guys with broken wings, but don't be scared off completely. Lots of value in later rounds if you're patient. That said, drafting for innings eaters is asinine. Draft upside and sign innings eaters on the free agent market. (Especially this year.)
- Consistency isn't necessary. If a pitch flashes plus, trust your development people to bring it out. You've got years to figure it out.
- One elite pitch is more important than two good pitches, but three or four good pitches is generally more important than one elite pitch.
- A production arc wherein a pitcher improves consistently (or stays dominant) says much about work ethic. That's a good sign for future development.
- Cape Cod production should be taken with a grain of salt, but is probably more important this year than most.
- Youth and precociousness of talent is often important-- if you can stay patient. That said, older pitchers can be solid late value picks. I'd lean toward signing high upside old arms on the free agent market unless they are clearly better than younger arms.
- Breaking balls can be taught. Spin is God-given and the difference of a full grade on a pitcher. When push comes to shove, spin rate and at least one present elite pitch are my two most important tools to look for in higher rounds. Ability to generate/ develop elite pitch as the draft moves on.)
- A polished pitcher can put up monster numbers in HS or college without great stuff. Be wary of those.
- A kid with a good fastball and a consistent arm angle is typically a sleeper quality arm. That's relatively easily identifiable on film too.
- Tools, in order of preference:
- Spin rate (Does it help pitchers' pitches play up? Only truly God-given ability on the list, IMO.)
- Fastball (Boddy says he can teach it, but I remain unconvinced. IMO, a pitchers has to be able to hit mid 90s to be considered in 1st three rounds. After that, I'm willing to gamble a bit.)
- Breaking ball/ Changing speeds/ Arm angle (If it can be taught, trust Boddy and coaches to teach it. Guys that have two consistent elite pitches should be top 10 picks.)
- Control (Key is delivery and consistency. Can be taught. Am willing to trade some control for ability to miss bats consistently, a la Castillo. Having both is an ace level guy.
- Delivery/ Health (If they're already clean, that's less work to do, faster to majors. Not a deal-breaker, but important to note. Willing to gamble on upside the later the draft goes.)
