2011 - Gonelong's 10th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

Welcome to Gonelong's 10th annual Reds Win prediction thread. The history of the prediction threads are at the end of this post. For only the 2nd time in 9 seasons, tORG understimated the Reds win total, and did so by a mind-numbing 7.7 Wins.

Hopefully the Sundeck will once again organize a thread and take up this friendly challenge from the ORG. Last year tORG got "SunDecked" in this challenge so congratulations is owed to all the SunDeck members who participated.:clap: tORG holds a slim 2-1 advantage in the head-to-head challenge with the SunDeck looking to even the score this season.


As always, the prediction thread request is simple.

1. Give a number of Wins you project for the Reds 2011 season.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope. (Please, no 162-0 "predictions")
3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction.

When I return from opening day I'll compute the average guestimate for tORG. (One again, my brother was able to secure a ticket for me for the 4th year in a row. I have only missed one opening day since attending my first in 1996. Thanks bro!) In fact, I have a True Value Reds opening Day baseball from 1997 in my desk at work. Anybody else still have that one?

I cannot remember entering a reds season with such anticipation. My son is 7 this year and is very interested thanks to last season's showing. I am hearing much more chatter around the neighborhood and at work as well. I am hoping the Reds get out of the gate on solid footing so we can enjoy a season similar to last years.

My prediction for the Reds is that they will win 94 games this season.

Go Reds!

GL

Code:

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Old Red Guard
YR RZ  Act  Ptgh Delta
-- --  ----  ---- -----
10 83.3,  91,  92 (- 7.7)
09 79.0,  78,  76 (+ 1.0)
08 81.6,  74,  72 (+ 7.6)
07 81.4,  72,  75 (+ 9.2)
06 76.7,  80,  76 (-  3.3)
05 84.7,  73,  75 (+ 11.7)
04 76.8,  76,  67 (+  0.8)
03 87.9,  69,  63 (+ 18.9)
02 79.7,  75,  75 (+  4.7)     
 
Sundeck
YR RZ  Act  Ptgh Delta
-- --  ----  ---- -----
10 84.6,  91,  92 (- 6.4)
09 82.7,  78,  76 (+ 4.7)
08 85.1,  74,  72 (+ 11.1)

---

91 Wins for the Reds

Would be a bit higher but I've gotten terribly scared of the injury bug this past week so I hedged a little.

87-75

88 Wins.

94 wins

95 wins. I say they start a bit slow in April then catch fire and ride the wave to another Central title!

I'll be the pessimistic one thus far.

86 wins

81-81.

I'm worried about the rotation. (I'm always worried).

89 wins.

89 wins. I don't believe we really improved but at the same time Cards loss of Wainright and the Brewers picking up Greinke I think keeps us at about the same level record wise.

82 wins.

I'd feel a lot better about this team if Edinson Volquez could throw strikes and if Johnny Cueto wasn't seemingly destined to miss at least 1 month of the season.

I also think they're going to miss Arthur Rhodes a lot more than people realize.

85

I think the pitching will be average.

92 wins

CE, I'm curious about your comment about missing Rhodes. You think Chap won't be able to adequately fill that role this year?

320

90 wins.

92 wins, repeat NLC champs.