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Of the five, the least confidence I have is in the Pirates. Not only are they just over a week removed from a terrible stretch, but their upcoming schedule is brutal. They don't play a team with a current losing record -- or even .500 -- until they visit the Mets on July 26. For real. There are 26 games before that. I expect a fade, but you never know.
Of the top four, obviously the Reds are the worst bet to win the division, but I'm intrigued. They just swept the Astros and then split in Milwaukee. After two games in Anaheim, they return to Cincinnati for a homestand that could define the rest of the season. They'll play the Cubs three times and Brewers four before a two-game series with the Indians. Then it's the All-Star break. If they win the series against the Cubs and Brewers, they have a real chance to be a player in the division.